The general conclusion was that either:

1). They got lucky (which seems a bit harsh and also itself may be improbable);
2). They were on to something, but they only had one small part of the picture. Therefore in a quake with the applicable risk factors their predictors were useful, but lots of quakes have other risk factors they weren’t accounting for.

Bottom line, their prediction system was too flawed to be useful. I also seem to recall that the Chinese were paying attention to qualitative factors like animal behaviour. Since those predictors couldn’t be quantified, the scientific community was uncomfortable with their methodology.

Italy lies on two fault lines and has been hit by powerful earthquakes in the past, mainly in the center and south of the country. Why are we so unprepared? I’m not referring to people, who probably are trained in these regions to flee in the open air when earth begins to quake. I’m wondering why buildings are not predisposed to resist to similar events.

I know we are a country characterized by historical buildings dating back centuries, full of cultural symbols and art. But when people lives and safety comes to the point a better compromise between preserving and rebuilding maybe could be found. I’m sure a lot of people could point to my comment as a way to make the question too easy and maybe they are right in some respects. But I think we can’t forget that a similar tragedy occurred just few years ago in Molise (2002, San Giuliano di Puglia) when a school collapsed due to an earthquake causing the death of 27 children and the teacher. Every time I come to know about similar events in Italy I can’t help asking myself if the loss in terms of human lives would be less in a more equipped country.

In this particular case the questions arising in my head are more than in previous tragedy (San Giuliano, 2002): could the deaths have been prevented if Giuliani’s forecast had been taken in more consideration?
In previous days I didn’t notice the news about the earthquake’s forecast. Today in Italy it is subject of discussion and appears in evidence in almost all headlines immediately after the constant updates from L’Aquila.
Is this forecast really a simple coincidence? Earthquakes can’t really be foretold? Or is this just an example of what we can loose ignoring science new discoverings?
In front of present L’Aquila’s people suffering these questions are useless… but what for the future?

The removal of rubble and rebuilding will be much more expensive than the cost of beefing up support for all these buildings. Not to mention all the dead and shattered lives and possible law suits. All governments should take note of this lesson.

I live in LA and have a good stash of food and water. I have also bolted my house to its foundation. No one else I know ever thinks about it. Most people are totally unprepared and take a passive attitude about it, they do not even store water. I love living here, and enjoy the local mountains, but understand and respect the forces that put them there.

In YouTube: BOYKOILIEV2008