Comments on: Study: When Doctors Predict How Long You Have to Live, They're Pretty Much Guessing

By: Danilo Betzig

Danilo Betzig — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 04:20:55 +0000

Patient: I always see spots before my eyes. Doctor: Didn’t the new glasses help? Patient: Sure, now I see the spots much clearer.

By: Evan

Evan — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 19:00:33 +0000

To some of those above, I would find comfort in having an educated guess at a time to live. Additionally, I could see much anxiety and nervousness arising from a situation in which the doctor said “there is just no way of telling.” A prognosis of months, or years, or longer, is essentially the same for everyone, there is no new knowledge gained here. So what is the point of asking a doctor? The point is that they are the most trained in making these estimates, and even though there are a great number of variables to juggle, they are much better at juggling them than we are.

By: Jeff

Jeff — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 18:41:14 +0000

This article illustrates a common problem with doctors: assuming they have complete information. This doesn’t only apply to predicting death, but also to selecting treatments. Doctors commonly think that because they or the people around them have not heard of it, it does not exist. But their knowledge cannot be complete, as they cannot possibly read all reserach journals or talk to all doctors. What is needed is a database of information – an expert system – to help the decision process. This system will track all results, and can even be used in ways that Cody and Geack suggest.

By: Ronna

Ronna — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 03:29:08 +0000

I wholly agree with Eric, from personal experience as well. My Dad was diagnosed with a cancerous tumor attached to the outside of his lung. The Dr. immediately told him he had only 3 mos to live. His moral went right into the toilet. I told Dad, according to the bible, every spoken word becomes a living thing. The spoken word, is also how we put curses on others, and to my way of thinking, this Dr’s words were in essence, a curse upon my Dad, whether intentional or not. My mom and all 5 of us (children) finally convinced him to find another doctor. This Dr was shocked to learn that the previous physician would put a date on my Dad’s life expectency. He told my Dad, you could live for months, or you could live for years, there is just no way of telling. Dad lived another 18 months, and those months were the best. We took family vacations together, and we all had time to try to come to terms with his passing, ahead of time. Regardless of how this first Dr described Dad’s future as a horrible, lingering death, dad died smiling, breathing perfectly, without oxygen, at hospice, with a nurse singing a christian song. It was so peaceful, we thought he had simply fallen asleep.

By: Aaron

Aaron — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 04:56:18 +0000

I agree with Eric. When a professional gives you a few days, weeks, months the patient expects to pass around then so his/ her hopes and moral go down to dangerous levels. Just let them go off happy and peacefully not depressed and nervous…

By: Eric

Eric — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 16:36:51 +0000

My grandfather suffered a stroke, after which the doctors gave him only a couple months to live. He continued living for 2 more years in a nursing home and even then hospice called the family in at least 5 times to say that he only had a few hours left to live. Surprise, he didn’t die any of those times but emotionally it felt like it. I don’t believe doctors or anyone in the health care field should ever try and predict how long someone has.

By: Sandra

Sandra — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 23:33:40 +0000

Strange fluff article.

Doctors as a whole UNDERESTIMATE and the numbers strongly support this.

There are many upsides to underestimating:
1. Patient’s personal fulfilment “You’re a fighter. You’re beating the odds.”.
2. Motivational to continue healthy practices and treatment.
3. Family takes immediate planning steps to prepares for eventuality
4. Family feels uplifted because patient defied the odds

There are only downsides to overestimating.
1. Perceived doctor incompetence if patient falls below average
2. Family is angry
3. Patient doesn’t experience immediacy/desperation of short time line so doesn’t follow all medical recomendations
4. Legal exposure

By: Geack

Geack — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 21:59:58 +0000

Cody,
Why not just look for the ones who are most often right, and have them teach the rest?

By: AG

AG — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 17:05:11 +0000

Prognosis is based what you learn in medical text book or recent statistics. Yes, it is statistics, not precise prediction for individuals.

By: Cody

Cody — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 05:14:27 +0000

We should build databases to look for individual doctors who consistently over or under estimate. Then we could pair together optimists and pessimists and have them refer one another for second opinions!