Blogs / 80beats

Global warming isn’t just a threat to polar bears in the rapidly warming Arctic, a new study says: Species in the tropics are beginning to feel the effects as well, and it will only get worse. Researchers surveyed more than 1,900 species of plants, insects, and fungi in a Costa Rica rainforest and came to the troubling conclusion that if world temperatures continue to rise as predicted over the next 50 years, half of those species will have to move to completely new territory to find an appropriate habitat.

The situation is complicated for tropical species, says lead researcher Robert Colwell; shifting north or south doesn’t bring significantly lower temperatures, so species will have to take up residence at higher altitudes to survive. In the absence of mountainsides to serve as a cool refuge, those plants and insects that cannot face higher temperatures may disappear as it would require migrations of hundreds or even thousands of miles to find a suitable cooler climate—crossing habitats utterly changed by human impacts. “For lowland tropical species whose geographical range lies far from mountains, for example in the middle of the Amazon,” Colwell says, “the prospect for extinction cannot be dismissed” [Scientific American].

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A warmer world will also be a sicklier place for both animals and humans, according to a new report from the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS). Dubbed the “deadly dozen,” sicknesses such as Lyme disease, yellow fever, plague, and avian influenza, or bird flu, may skyrocket as global shifts in temperature and precipitation transform ecosystems. Babesia, cholera, Ebola, intestinal and external parasites, red tides, Rift Valley fever, sleeping sickness and tuberculosis round out the list [National Geographic News].

The report spells out how global warming is changing the ranges and habitats of animals that carry these infectious diseases, bringing the ticks that transmit Lyme disease and the mosquitoes that carry yellow fever and Rift Valley fever into contact with new human populations. “We’ve seen Lyme disease work its way up from the US into Canada, and West Nile fever as well,” said William Karesh, director of WCS’s global health programmes. “Basically what you have now are fewer frozen nights in this region, and that allows the ticks and mosquitoes that carry these diseases to survive further north” [BBC News].

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Alarming but preliminary reports of methane gas bubbling up from the Arctic Ocean have raised the specter of precipitous global warming in the minds of some climate scientists.

While aboard a research ship sailing off the coast of Siberia, scientists observed high levels of methane in the water, and then spotted several areas where the gas bubbles were fizzing up from the ocean floor, which contains vast amounts of frozen methane. That was enough to ring the alarm bells: Methane is about 20 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide and many scientists fear that its release could accelerate global warming in a giant positive feedback where more atmospheric methane causes higher temperatures, leading to further permafrost melting and the release of yet more methane [The Independent].

While the news seems disquieting, some researchers are expressing some skepticism about the findings, which haven’t yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal. The initial word from a heap of scientists who are focused on sub-sea methane deposits, including a group that videotaped big burps of methane bubbles off Santa Barbara, Calif., a few years ago, is a note of caution about overinterpreting the Arctic bubbling and high gas concentrations as something a) new or b) driven by human-caused global warming [The New York Times, Dot Earth blog].

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Many years after he revolutionized the field of physics, Albert Einstein took up a new task: inventing a better refrigerator. The 1930 appliance that he patented in partnership with a former student, Leo Szilard, had no moving parts and required no electricity, but was quickly forgotten as more efficient refrigeration technology was invented. Now, an electrical engineer has built a prototype of the forgotten Einstein fridge as part of a three-year project to develop more robust appliances that can be used in places without electricity [The Guardian].

Einstein and Szilard were reportedly spurred to inventive action by a news report of a Berlin family that died when toxic gas leaked from their refrigerator; the two physicists decided to create a system without moving parts to reduce the likelihood of accidents.

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Researchers have found that a one-year temperature spike can decrease the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by a grassland ecosystem for up to two years. The four-year experiment, conducted at the Desert Research Institute in Nevada, adds a troubling new factor to calculations on how to best cope with global warming. Grasslands and their soils are considered a major sink for excess atmospheric carbon dioxide. Such natural carbon sponges, if they continue to thrive, could help alleviate the warming effects of manmade CO2 emissions [Science News].

In the experiment, which was described in the journal Nature [subscription required], researchers removed 12 large plots of grass with the underlying six feet of soil and microbes, each taken from the Oklahoma prairie in one piece. The plots were transported to the institute’s greenhouses, where the ecosystems were carefully controlled. Half the plots were exposed to normal fluctuations of temperature and rainfall, while the other half were subjected to one year where temperatures were consistently 7 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than usual.

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A British jury has cleared six Greenpeace activists of causing criminal damage when they vandalized a power plant last year in a protest over global warming, based on the defense attorneys’ argument that the protesters were trying to prevent even worse damage from climate change. Yesterday’s verdict is expected to embarrass the government and lead to more direct action protests against energy companies [The Guardian].

Last October, the Greenpeace protesters scaled the smokestacks of a coal-fired power plant as a publicity stunt to protest the United Kingdom’s continued reliance on coal-fired power plants, which emit large amounts of the greenhouse gases responsible for global warming. The protesters were halfway through painting a slogan on the side of one smokestack (”Gordon, bin it,” a British way of asking Prime Minister Gordon Brown to chuck coal), when the police served the activists an injunction by helicopter and forced them to stop. They were charged with causing more than $50,000 in damages based on the cost of removing the paint. E.ON, which owns the power plant, said that the company was in a state of shock over the verdict [The Times].

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Forest scientists have come to a surprising conclusion regarding old growth forests and their majestic, mature trees: They’re not just relaxing in their arboreal old age, but are still actively taking in carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The new study suggests that protecting old growth forests may be just as important as planting new trees in efforts to reduce carbon dioxide levels and fight global warming.

Previously, researchers believed that only young, fast-growing trees absorbed enough carbon dioxide to be considered significant “carbon sinks.” Old, crowded forests don’t allow for much new growth: The only new growth occurred in the small spaces that opened up when large old trees died and decomposed, releasing their accumulated carbon. The forests at large were therefore considered to be carbon neutral, and accounted as such in climate models [Nature News]. But the new study shows that the slow but continuous growth of old trees means that they continue to suck up more carbon than they release.

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In a cluster of coal mines in eastern Illinois, researchers have discovered the fossilized remains of ancient rainforests that date from the Carboniferous era, including one forest that stretched for 39 square miles. Researchers say the forests date from both before and after an episode of intense global warming that occurred about 306 million years ago, and may shed light on the ecosystem’s reaction to the drastic climate shift.

Researchers published a report on the first fossilized rainforest last year, but announced this week at the British Association’s Festival of Science that they have since come across five more patches of ancient woods. Says paleontologist Howard Falcon-Lang: “Three of the forests predate global warming and the rest follow it, so we can compare the ecology of those rain forests to see what the effect of global warming was.” During that period the Earth’s climate flipped from being covered with large polar icecaps to a greenhouse state that was completely ice-free, he added [National Geographic News].

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Next week, German officials will flip the switch and turn on the world’s first coal-fired power plant to use carbon capture and storage technology, in which carbon dioxide is stripped out the plant’s emissions and pumped deep underground. This “clean coal” technology has been hailed as a possible way to get cheap energy without further contributing to global warming. The 30 megawatt Schwarze Pumpe power station, built and operated by Swedish power company Vattenfall, will produce power along with 10 tons of highly concentrated CO2 an hour. The CO2 will be loaded onto tankers and taken to a nearby gas field for sequestration [Earth2Tech].

The new Vattenfall plant is a relatively small pilot project intended to test the viability of carbon capture and storage; these technologies have yet to be deployed in full-scale commercial plants, which typically generate hundreds of megawatts of power. The technologies are currently expensive, partly because capturing and compressing carbon dioxide into liquid requires a good amount of energy. Critics also have questioned their effectiveness in keeping emissions sealed underground [GreenTech Media]. For all these reasons, some experts have wondered whether clean coal plants are a realistic option for large-scale energy production.

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Climate scientists have long predicted that global warming will melt polar ice sheets and cause sea levels to rise throughout the century, potentially swamping island nations and flooding low-lying coastal cities. But exactly how much ocean waters will rise has yet to be settled. Now, two studies have come out that at first appear to contradict each other, leading to clashing headlines like “An Inconvenient Truth” Exaggerated Sea Level Rise [Telegraph], and Sea Level Rise May Be Twice More Than Expected [Discovery News].

One study seems to downplay the risk of an extreme sea-level rise, while the other hypes it up. But a closer look reveals that the two studies actually bring researchers nearer to scientific consensus.

In the study published in Science [subscription required], researchers examined the hypothesis of a six-foot sea-level rise by 2100, and calculated how quickly the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica would have to melt into the oceans to produce this effect. Their calculations showed that the glaciers would have to essentially gallop towards the sea, which seems an unlikely outcome. In Greenland, the glaciers moving into the island’s calving fjords would have to increase their speed to 28.4 miles per year and sustain that speed until the end of the century [Telegraph]. These researchers believe the most plausible scenario is a sea-level rise of between two and six feet within this century. As their results have been compared to more radical estimates like the 20-foot rise mentioned in the documentary film An Inconvenient Truth, the findings are being greeted with relief.

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In the destructive heart of hurricane season, climate scientists have come out with some alarming news: the most powerful storms have gained wind strength over the past 25 years as a result of gradually warming ocean waters, and global warming is likely to continue that trend. It’s hardly welcome news, as Gulf Coast residents are still recovering from this week’s close call with Hurricane Gustav and Caribbean islanders are warily eyeing several new tropical storms gaining strength over the Atlantic.

The new study is likely to renew the debate over global warming’s effect on major storms: [T]here has been controversy about whether these hurricanes will get more intense and numerous, with many claiming the data are not good enough to discern a real trend upwards in recent years…. Today’s study, by Prof James Elsner of Florida State University, concludes that the strongest tropical cyclones - the general term for intense storms such as hurricanes and typhoons - are getting stronger, with the greatest increase recorded in the North Atlantic and northern Indian oceans [Telegraph].

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Climatologists predict that the African continent will grow drier and drier as global warming brings more droughts. But whether elephants herds can survive might depend on their oldest members.

In a study published in Biology Letters, Charles Foley of the Wildlife Conservation Society studied how three family groups of elephants responded to a severe African drought in 1993. In a nine-month period 16 out of 81 elephant calves in three study groups died, a mortality rate of 20 per cent. The normal mortality rate of calves during non-drought years is only two per cent [Telegraph].

Two groups left the area during the drought, migrating to places with more water, and lost only five calves between them, compared to 11 for the group that stayed. Foley found that the groups that left contained older females than the remaining group, which was perhaps the key to their success: [T]he older females may have been able to draw on memories of an earlier severe drought from 1958 to 1961, and how the elephants survived it [The Press Association]. The third group, meanwhile, lost many of its females during plagues of poaching in the 1970s and 1980s. As such, its leader was only 33, too young to remember the the late 1950s drought.

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China currently leads the world in its use of renewable energy, and is poised to also take first place on investment in clean energy technologies, according to a new report from an international non-profit, The Climate Group. The report serves as a stark contrast to the steady drumbeat of recent news about China’s pollution problems, which include the smoggy air of Beijing that may imperil Olympic athletes during this month’s summer games.

The report says that China has hardly shed all of its allegiance to dirty energy; [I]t is building one coal-fired power station a week and its carbon dioxide emissions have surged since 2002, from seven percent of the global total to more than 24 percent [Reuters]. However, the government’s investment in clean technology is on an upward trend, the report says. In 2007, China’s $12 billion investment in renewables was second only to Germany’s; by 2009, China’s renewables-investment is expected to be the world’s largest [Grist].

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Coral reefs can resemble underwater monuments, with strong towers and meandering walls that stand firm against the tides. But a new study says that if global warming causes ocean water to become more acidic those elaborate structures may crumble because the cement-like binding agent that holds the reefs together won’t be able to form in those inhospitable waters.

Most of the world’s coral reefs aren’t yet showing signs of this degradation, as ocean pH is slow to change and reefs form slowly. But researchers got a chance to peer into the possible future in an area of the eastern Pacific off Central America… where the water is more acidic than elsewhere, thanks to the upwelling of carbon-dioxide-rich waters. Coral reefs in this region are poorly developed and tend to erode rapidly [The New York Times].

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A UK documentary called the The Great Global Warming Swindle misrepresented the views of several climate scientists and disregarded broadcasting rules on impartiality, according to a review by a regulatory panel. But the ruling on the much-debated global warming film gave both sides something to cheer, as it also said that the film did not mislead audiences “so as to cause harm or offence.”

The film’s key contentions were that the increase in atmospheric temperatures observed since the 1970s was not primarily caused by emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, and that the modern focus on climate change is based in politics rather than science. It is seen in some “climate sceptic” circles as a counter to Al Gore’s movie An Inconvenient Truth, and credited with influencing public perception of climate science [BBC News].

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