Climate scientists have long predicted that global warming will melt polar ice sheets and cause sea levels to rise throughout the century, potentially swamping island nations and flooding low-lying coastal cities. But exactly how much ocean waters will rise has yet to be settled. Now, two studies have come out that at first appear to contradict each other, leading to clashing headlines like “An Inconvenient Truth” Exaggerated Sea Level Rise [Telegraph], and Sea Level Rise May Be Twice More Than Expected [Discovery News].
One study seems to downplay the risk of an extreme sea-level rise, while the other hypes it up. But a closer look reveals that the two studies actually bring researchers nearer to scientific consensus.
In the study published in Science [subscription required], researchers examined the hypothesis of a six-foot sea-level rise by 2100, and calculated how quickly the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica would have to melt into the oceans to produce this effect. Their calculations showed that the glaciers would have to essentially gallop towards the sea, which seems an unlikely outcome. In Greenland, the glaciers moving into the island’s calving fjords would have to increase their speed to 28.4 miles per year and sustain that speed until the end of the century [Telegraph]. These researchers believe the most plausible scenario is a sea-level rise of between two and six feet within this century. As their results have been compared to more radical estimates like the 20-foot rise mentioned in the documentary film An Inconvenient Truth, the findings are being greeted with relief.
