As the swine flu outbreak continues to spread, with Russia, South Korea, and Australia joining the list of countries with suspected cases and the death toll climbing in Mexico, attention has turned to the potential of a swine flu vaccine that could protect populations from infection. But a new vaccine takes some months to develop. Says Iain Stephenson, an expert on flu vaccines: “We are in a position where if a swine flu virus becomes a pandemic we don’t currently have a vaccine for it…. I think that it is unlikely there will be widespread vaccine in less than six to eight months” [Telegraph]. In the meantime, says Stephenson, patients can be treated with antiviral drugs.
International health officials haven’t yet decided whether the swine flu poses a serious worldwide threat that would call for the immediate prioritizing of a vaccine. The pharmaceutical company Novartis said it had received the genetic code of the new virus strain, enabling it to start work on evaluating production, and it hoped to receive the actual virus in its laboratories “in the near future.” … But the World Health Organisation (WHO) said it would only call for large-scale production of such a pandemic vaccine if it strongly believed the world was on the edge of an unstoppable global outbreak of flu [Reuters]. Vaccine companies are currently producing the seasonal flu vaccine, and health officials worry that calling them off that task could lead to shortages of the common flu shot.
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The swine flu outbreak that began in Mexico over the past few weeks has gone global, spread to new continents by infected air travelers returning from Mexico. Confirmed cases have been reported in the United States, Canada, and Spain, while suspected cases are being investigated in France, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Israel, and New Zealand. Amid fears that a global pandemic is in the offing, governments around the world are taking new precautions. Singapore, Thailand, Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines dusted off thermal scanners used during the 2003 SARS crisis and were checking for signs of fever among passengers arriving at airports from North America [AP].
The situation remains worst in Mexico City, where many schools and public buildings are closed and doctors have warned citizens to wear face masks and avoid crowds. The virus is believed to have killed 103 people in Mexico, and sickened at least 1,600. But so far, the cases reported elsewhere in the world haven’t been as deadly.
A 23-year-old Spanish man has tested positive for swine flu, and at least 17 further suspected cases are under investigation in Spain…. The patients concerned had all recently returned from Mexico. None of the cases is thought to be life threatening [BBC News]. There are now 20 confirmed cases in the United States, including eight associated with a New York City elementary school where some students had recently been to Mexico for spring break. While the United States has declared the outbreak a public health emergency, health officials note that all the U.S. cases thus far have been mild, with no deaths reported.
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Mexico City health officials took the drastic step today of closing schools, from kindergartens to universities, in an effort to control an outbreak of swine flu that has killed at least 16 people in the last few weeks. It was clear that Mexican health officials were alarmed. Besides shutting classes, the government urged people to avoid large gatherings and to refrain from the common greetings of a hand shake or kiss on the cheek. City buses continued to operate but some passengers were seen wearing masks, and a cough or a sneeze by one passenger prompted others to relocate [The New York Times].
Experts say that the swine flu virus, which usually infects just a few humans who are in direct contact with pigs, has mutated into a more dangerous form that can be passed between people, and fear that it could cause a pandemic.
Meanwhile, officials are scrambling to understand how the deadly Mexican virus is related to an apparently weaker strain circulating in the American Southwest, which is not known to have caused any deaths. The first two cases in the United States were reported on Tuesday in Southern California. There are now five cases in California, including the father of one of the original patients. The other two cases are near San Antonio, Texas…. “We believe at this point that human-to-human spreading is occurring” [ABC News], says Anne Schuchat of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. However, she stressed that the U.S. virus does not currently appear to be a cause for serious concern.
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Egyptian health officials have just reported two deaths from bird flu within days of each other. The dangerous virus variant H5N1 struck down a six-year-old boy and a young woman, bringing the total death toll in Egypt to 25. While bird flu experts note that Egypt has seen a surge in human cases in recent months, with 16 confirmed since the start of the year, compared to seven cases between January 1 and April 17 last year [Reuters], they also say that the Egyptian people’s level of alarm is out of proportion to the threat.
Rumors have appeared in the Egyptian media that the virus is circulating widely, and that some people get “silent infections” which show no symptoms, but still allow them to pass on the virus. The rumors have been fueled by the pattern of recent infections: Many of the infected patients have been toddlers, leading to the belief that stronger adults are also infected but simply show no symptoms. Although thousands of Egyptians have rushed their children to hospitals this flu season, there is no evidence yet of asymptomatic avian flu cases or any significant mutation in the H5N1 virus. “Right now, it’s all hot air,” said Dr. Robert G. Webster, a flu expert…. “I hope to hell it’s not happening, because it would mean the virus is adapting to humans. But there’s not a shred of data” [The New York Times].
While the H5N1 virus rarely infects people, the looming fear is that the virus may mutate into a form that can be transmitted easily from person to person, which could spark a deadly pandemic. However, an outbreak of swine flu across the world from Egypt, in Southern California, has reminded people of the hazards of overreacting before all the information is in.
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