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	<title>Comments on: How We Know What Isn&#8217;t So</title>
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	<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2005/04/11/what-did-you-expect/</link>
	<description>I am an astronomer, writer, and skeptic. I likes reality the way it is, and I aims to keep it that way. My real name is Phil Plait, and I run the Bad Astronomy blog.</description>
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		<title>By: Lost in Translation &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Biblical Creation: Fact or Fiction?</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2005/04/11/what-did-you-expect/comment-page-1/#comment-4392</link>
		<dc:creator>Lost in Translation &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Biblical Creation: Fact or Fiction?</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Oct 2007 16:15:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2005/04/11/what-did-you-expect/#comment-4392</guid>
		<description>[...] at this point, but even if the points that the lecturers were raising were legitimate - and they are not - the lecturers themselves, and their approaches to belief and knowledge, are so deeply damaging [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] at this point, but even if the points that the lecturers were raising were legitimate &#8211; and they are not &#8211; the lecturers themselves, and their approaches to belief and knowledge, are so deeply damaging [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Nelson Martin</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2005/04/11/what-did-you-expect/comment-page-1/#comment-4391</link>
		<dc:creator>Nelson Martin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Oct 2005 23:28:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2005/04/11/what-did-you-expect/#comment-4391</guid>
		<description>Dear Mr. Plait,
I purchased and read Mr. Gilovich&#039;s &quot;How We Know What Isn&#039;t So.&quot;  I did so as I read somewhere recently that within its pages is a reference to a question posed: If you fold a piece of paper 100 times, how thick would the resulting piece of paper now be after the 100th fold.
Most people I have asked, guess at a foot thick, a yard thick, etc.  The answer is 8,000,000,000 times the distance between the earth and the sun.
Whether that is the case, but I folded a an entire page of a newspaper, and could only fold it 7 times, the thickness was then in excess of 1&quot;.  I did the math on 50 folds and the result on only 50 folds was in excess of the distance to the sun, almost two times the distance, as I recall.
Can you help me??!!  Please - I need the source of this query as my friends are throwing mud pies for starters, and now find myself unable to prove my case or come up with the original source of my info.  If nothing else, could you give me a hint as to how I could contact Mr. Gilovich?
Appreciate your help and enjoyed reading you site.
Nelson Martin nsmartin@whc.net</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dear Mr. Plait,<br />
I purchased and read Mr. Gilovich&#8217;s &#8220;How We Know What Isn&#8217;t So.&#8221;  I did so as I read somewhere recently that within its pages is a reference to a question posed: If you fold a piece of paper 100 times, how thick would the resulting piece of paper now be after the 100th fold.<br />
Most people I have asked, guess at a foot thick, a yard thick, etc.  The answer is 8,000,000,000 times the distance between the earth and the sun.<br />
Whether that is the case, but I folded a an entire page of a newspaper, and could only fold it 7 times, the thickness was then in excess of 1&#8243;.  I did the math on 50 folds and the result on only 50 folds was in excess of the distance to the sun, almost two times the distance, as I recall.<br />
Can you help me??!!  Please &#8211; I need the source of this query as my friends are throwing mud pies for starters, and now find myself unable to prove my case or come up with the original source of my info.  If nothing else, could you give me a hint as to how I could contact Mr. Gilovich?<br />
Appreciate your help and enjoyed reading you site.<br />
Nelson Martin <a href="mailto:nsmartin@whc.net">nsmartin@whc.net</a></p>
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		<title>By: Eric</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2005/04/11/what-did-you-expect/comment-page-1/#comment-4390</link>
		<dc:creator>Eric</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 May 2005 00:49:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2005/04/11/what-did-you-expect/#comment-4390</guid>
		<description>Okay, fair enough.

I checked the ratbags website and clicked on the link for quackwatch.  On quackwatch, I did a search for two different topics, &quot;homeopathy&quot; and &quot;circumcision.&quot;  Under &quot;homeopathy,&quot; there were pages and pages of pasionately argued refutations of homeopathy.  Under &quot;circumcision,&quot; there were a few bland paragraphs that didn&#039;t take much of a position one way or another.

Circumcision is a form of quackery that has harmed millions and millions of boys.  Why don&#039;t those debunkers of quack medicine who argue pasionately and at length against practices such as homeopathy expend the same passion and energy arguing against the practice of circumcision?  Might it have something to do with the fact that circumcision means big money for conventional doctors, whereas alternative medical practices threaten their revenue?

If the same reasoning that is advocated in &quot;How We Know What Isn&#039;t So&quot; is applied to circumcision, it can be seen to be based on falacious reasoning, but I don&#039;t hear those arguments coming from skeptics and debunkers of quackery.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Okay, fair enough.</p>
<p>I checked the ratbags website and clicked on the link for quackwatch.  On quackwatch, I did a search for two different topics, &#8220;homeopathy&#8221; and &#8220;circumcision.&#8221;  Under &#8220;homeopathy,&#8221; there were pages and pages of pasionately argued refutations of homeopathy.  Under &#8220;circumcision,&#8221; there were a few bland paragraphs that didn&#8217;t take much of a position one way or another.</p>
<p>Circumcision is a form of quackery that has harmed millions and millions of boys.  Why don&#8217;t those debunkers of quack medicine who argue pasionately and at length against practices such as homeopathy expend the same passion and energy arguing against the practice of circumcision?  Might it have something to do with the fact that circumcision means big money for conventional doctors, whereas alternative medical practices threaten their revenue?</p>
<p>If the same reasoning that is advocated in &#8220;How We Know What Isn&#8217;t So&#8221; is applied to circumcision, it can be seen to be based on falacious reasoning, but I don&#8217;t hear those arguments coming from skeptics and debunkers of quackery.</p>
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		<title>By: The Bad Astronomer</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2005/04/11/what-did-you-expect/comment-page-1/#comment-4389</link>
		<dc:creator>The Bad Astronomer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 May 2005 23:54:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2005/04/11/what-did-you-expect/#comment-4389</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t want this comment section to become a back-and-forth on homepathy, but having said that...

Homeopathy has no scientific basis whatsoever. The &quot;Law of Likes&quot; on which it is based has no evidence to support it in the way homeopaths claim.

Eric, in your case, there is no way to determine if you felt better because of what you took, or if because you would have gotten better anyway. However, if you study it using hundreds or thousands of such cases, then you are on to something. But as far as I know, no unbiased study of homeopathy has ever shown it to work. There is a lot of info out there on studies. www.ratbags.com is a fairly strident website, but it does have some decent information, as does www.randi.org.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t want this comment section to become a back-and-forth on homepathy, but having said that&#8230;</p>
<p>Homeopathy has no scientific basis whatsoever. The &#8220;Law of Likes&#8221; on which it is based has no evidence to support it in the way homeopaths claim.</p>
<p>Eric, in your case, there is no way to determine if you felt better because of what you took, or if because you would have gotten better anyway. However, if you study it using hundreds or thousands of such cases, then you are on to something. But as far as I know, no unbiased study of homeopathy has ever shown it to work. There is a lot of info out there on studies. <a href="http://www.ratbags.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.ratbags.com</a> is a fairly strident website, but it does have some decent information, as does <a href="http://www.randi.org" rel="nofollow">http://www.randi.org</a>.</p>
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		<title>By: Eric</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2005/04/11/what-did-you-expect/comment-page-1/#comment-4388</link>
		<dc:creator>Eric</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 May 2005 22:30:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2005/04/11/what-did-you-expect/#comment-4388</guid>
		<description>No, it&#039;s different from the placebo effect in two important ways:

1.  With a placebo, you don&#039;t start with an active medicine and then switch to a placebo; you start right away with a preparation that has no active ingredients.

2.  A placebo only works if the subject doesn&#039;t know that it&#039;s a placebo.  But conditioning works even if the subject knows that he&#039;s being conditioned.  For example, suppose that I ring a bell and present you with your favorite food.  I do this many times, and you salivate each time.  Then I tell you, &quot;Okay, I&#039;m going to ring the bell, but I won&#039;t present you with any food this time.&quot;  When I ring the bell, you&#039;ll still salivate, even though you know that no food is forthcoming, because you&#039;ve been conditioned to do so.

In my training on homeopathic medicines (and I emphasize that it was sales training, not scientific training), we were taught that homeopathic medicines do not heal the body, but rather they train the body to heal itself.

Remember when you were in school learning to read.  You first learned to read large print, and then the print was gradually reduced until you were able to read small print.

When homeopathic doctors prescribe homeopathic medicines, they first start with lesser dilutions, so that the body can learn to recognize the active ingredients.  Then they gradually increase the dillutions as the body learns to heal itself better.  Then (and this is just my hypothesis, but I think that it is a reasonable one), when the dilution is such that there is no longer any active ingredient left, the body has been conditioned to heal itself in response to the stimulus of taking the medicine, so that the active ingredients are no longer needed.

Let me add that the homeopathic medicines that I use and sell are all over-the-counter and come in only one strength, which is only slightly diluted, so they still have the active ingredients in them.  I have never used any dilutions that were so strong that they contained no active ingredients.  But I think that the above is a reasonable explanation as to why homeopathic medicines failed Randi&#039;s tests even though many people, myself included, claim that they do indeed work.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No, it&#8217;s different from the placebo effect in two important ways:</p>
<p>1.  With a placebo, you don&#8217;t start with an active medicine and then switch to a placebo; you start right away with a preparation that has no active ingredients.</p>
<p>2.  A placebo only works if the subject doesn&#8217;t know that it&#8217;s a placebo.  But conditioning works even if the subject knows that he&#8217;s being conditioned.  For example, suppose that I ring a bell and present you with your favorite food.  I do this many times, and you salivate each time.  Then I tell you, &#8220;Okay, I&#8217;m going to ring the bell, but I won&#8217;t present you with any food this time.&#8221;  When I ring the bell, you&#8217;ll still salivate, even though you know that no food is forthcoming, because you&#8217;ve been conditioned to do so.</p>
<p>In my training on homeopathic medicines (and I emphasize that it was sales training, not scientific training), we were taught that homeopathic medicines do not heal the body, but rather they train the body to heal itself.</p>
<p>Remember when you were in school learning to read.  You first learned to read large print, and then the print was gradually reduced until you were able to read small print.</p>
<p>When homeopathic doctors prescribe homeopathic medicines, they first start with lesser dilutions, so that the body can learn to recognize the active ingredients.  Then they gradually increase the dillutions as the body learns to heal itself better.  Then (and this is just my hypothesis, but I think that it is a reasonable one), when the dilution is such that there is no longer any active ingredient left, the body has been conditioned to heal itself in response to the stimulus of taking the medicine, so that the active ingredients are no longer needed.</p>
<p>Let me add that the homeopathic medicines that I use and sell are all over-the-counter and come in only one strength, which is only slightly diluted, so they still have the active ingredients in them.  I have never used any dilutions that were so strong that they contained no active ingredients.  But I think that the above is a reasonable explanation as to why homeopathic medicines failed Randi&#8217;s tests even though many people, myself included, claim that they do indeed work.</p>
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		<title>By: Tomasz Tkaczuk</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2005/04/11/what-did-you-expect/comment-page-1/#comment-4387</link>
		<dc:creator>Tomasz Tkaczuk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 May 2005 21:24:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2005/04/11/what-did-you-expect/#comment-4387</guid>
		<description>Isn&#039;t that the placebo effect?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Isn&#8217;t that the placebo effect?</p>
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		<title>By: Eric</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2005/04/11/what-did-you-expect/comment-page-1/#comment-4386</link>
		<dc:creator>Eric</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 May 2005 19:44:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2005/04/11/what-did-you-expect/#comment-4386</guid>
		<description>I work at a health food store, and I sell homeopathic medicines as well as use them myself.  I know from personal experience that they work.  However, I have checked the dilutions of the medicines that I use, and they are not very dilute, mostly 3X or 30X, with only a few of the ingredients very dilute such as 200C.  (And I don&#039;t claim to be able to feel their effects through the glass bottle!)

This is only my opinion, as I am not a scientist or doctor, but I think that, in order for homeopathic medicines to work, you have to start with the less dilute concentrations.  You can then work your way down to the extreme dilutions where there are no molecules of the active ingredients left.  In that case, they work just like the bell in Pavlov&#039;s experiment.  In that experiment, the dog would salivate when he heard the bell because he had been conditioned to expect food.  A person using plain water would react because his body was expecting the active ingredient, so his body would react in anticipation of the ingredient&#039;s being there.  Note that, if, at the beginning of Pavlov&#039;s experiment, he had simply rung the bell and not presented the dog with any meet, the dog would not have salivated.

It is my guess that, if the double-blind experiment were to be repeated, but this time a less dilute preparation were presented to some of the subjects, and plain water given to the control subjects, and then the dilution gradually decreased until all the subjects were given plain water, then those subjects who were initially given the less dilute preparation would continue to respond as did Pavlov&#039;s dog.

As I say, I am no scientist, but I think that the above explanation is plausible, and I refuse to stop using medications that are helpful to me because some experiment failed to verify that they work (although, as I&#039;ve said, the homeopathic medications that I take are not highly diluted, unlike the ones used in the double-blind test mentioned above).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I work at a health food store, and I sell homeopathic medicines as well as use them myself.  I know from personal experience that they work.  However, I have checked the dilutions of the medicines that I use, and they are not very dilute, mostly 3X or 30X, with only a few of the ingredients very dilute such as 200C.  (And I don&#8217;t claim to be able to feel their effects through the glass bottle!)</p>
<p>This is only my opinion, as I am not a scientist or doctor, but I think that, in order for homeopathic medicines to work, you have to start with the less dilute concentrations.  You can then work your way down to the extreme dilutions where there are no molecules of the active ingredients left.  In that case, they work just like the bell in Pavlov&#8217;s experiment.  In that experiment, the dog would salivate when he heard the bell because he had been conditioned to expect food.  A person using plain water would react because his body was expecting the active ingredient, so his body would react in anticipation of the ingredient&#8217;s being there.  Note that, if, at the beginning of Pavlov&#8217;s experiment, he had simply rung the bell and not presented the dog with any meet, the dog would not have salivated.</p>
<p>It is my guess that, if the double-blind experiment were to be repeated, but this time a less dilute preparation were presented to some of the subjects, and plain water given to the control subjects, and then the dilution gradually decreased until all the subjects were given plain water, then those subjects who were initially given the less dilute preparation would continue to respond as did Pavlov&#8217;s dog.</p>
<p>As I say, I am no scientist, but I think that the above explanation is plausible, and I refuse to stop using medications that are helpful to me because some experiment failed to verify that they work (although, as I&#8217;ve said, the homeopathic medications that I take are not highly diluted, unlike the ones used in the double-blind test mentioned above).</p>
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