“The new launch time is February 8 at 4:30 p.m. California time with Feb. 9 as a backup day. We will actually be ready to launch earlier, but are planning to spend extra time reviewing and double-checking all vehicle systems.”

I give them a 50/50 chance on the first flight. If the media is lucky, it will be a spectacular explosion that can be played over and over again on the eventing news. If it succeeds it will be a foot note if mentioned at all.

If the shuttle is launching its maximum payload (about 28,000 Kg), that puts the cost in the range of $16K – $21K per Kg.

Those numbers are the best case, however. If you look at an ISS assembly flight (I picked STS-092 because spaceflightnow had full data on it), the two main components delivered only massed about 9500 Kg. Now, there are other items delivered – consumables/etc., but they can’t be that heavy. Just on the main components, you get a cost in the range of $47K – $63K / Kg.

Because of the required docking adapter, the size of the modules that shuttle can take to ISS is considerably smaller than it would be able to take otherwise, and IIRC, the maximum payload to ISS is smaller because of the high inclination.

Progress does up to about 2200 Kg for a cost of somewhere in the range of $22 – $45 million, for about $10K – $20K per Kg.

I should note that shuttle costs are really hard to figure, since there is a huge fixed cost regardless of how many flights you launch.

Posted December 19, 2005: Launch is scrubbed until early next year, as there is a structural issue with the 1st stage fuel tank that will require repair. I will provide further comment as soon as this has been carefully analyzed.

Consistent with our policy, we must be 100% green for launch with no outstanding concerns whatsoever. It is not just a matter of repairing the damage, but also understanding at a fundamental level how to ensure it never happens again. We will also do another full review of all the vehicle systems, including propulsion, structures, avionics, software and ground support systems. Therefore, I expect that the earliest that launch would occur is late January. Third time’s the charm.

— Elon —

[bolding added]

http://www.spacex.com/updates.php

I like this philosophy. Ignore the pressure to launch on a pre-determined schedule, find the true cause of the problem and fix it before proceeding. Let’s hope this is practical.

From the article:
“It will be the first privately developed, liquid fueled rocket…”

Boeing may be a commercial enterprise rather than a government agency, but the development work for their rockets were on government contract. Same goes for Lockheed Martin, Grumman, etc. This is the first rocket designed commercially not on government contract. While they now have a contract with the Air Force as a payload customer, the development work was privately funded.

I recall hearing, some years ago, that launching cargo on the shuttle runs $10k to $15k US per kilogram. However, I’m unable to find a specific reference, so that’s really kind of a guess.

That cost is a little higher than the average right now, but economies of scale haven’t kicked in yet. SpaceX hasn’t hyped their $/kg cost with this rocket, but they did talk about their launch cost advantage over Pegasus (depending on the accounting SpaceX’s cost per mission is 1/3 of Pegasus or less). As their boosters get larger (Falcon V, Falcon 9) , the cost per kg goes down significantly.

If you get a chance to hear Elon Musk talk, it’s worth it. His insights are particularly refreshing in the aerospace industry. Now all he has to do is fly successfully, and he’ll have something to crow over.

1) You shot my stuff into space incorrectly, I want it all back or massive damages paid.

1a) You tried to shoot my stuff into space, but blew it all to bits by accident…

2) You didn’t tell me I’d get space-sick on your sub-orbital flight, gimme money!

3) Virgin Space lost my luggage when I took the sub-orbital from London to New York and my baggage fell out and burned up over Greenland. I was traumatized. Gimme money!

4) You dropped a booster rocket on my house. Buy me a new house, and gimme money!

Now, I’m kind of making light of it, but I am serious. Private space travel opens up a whole new universe for lawyers, I think. I wonder if the courts are ready?

Is the hydrocarbon fuel kerosene?

Too bad they can’t launch from El Primera.