According to this article, China will be launching a lunar orbiter in 2007 (just a year before NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter).
Will China send men to the Moon? They’re gonna try. To give you a sense of a timeline, the U.S. sent its first probe to the Moon in July 1964, five years before landing men. That was very early in the space age, and the probe was an impactor, which is somewhat easier than an orbiter (though not terribly easy). Two years later the U.S. launched a lunar orbiter (the Soviets were somewhat ahead of the U.S. in unmanned lunar probes at that time, but their manned program — which ironically was ahead of the U.S. in the early 60s — had lagged far behind the American effort by then). Three years after that, Neil Armstrong took his small step.
Technology is better now, and the Chinese have our own experience at their disposal (well, it’s not like we’re sharing secrets, but a lot of knowledge is online). I wonder how long it will actually take them to plant their flag?
This all reminds me of the scene in Arthur C. Clarke’s book (not the movie) "2010", when the U.S./Soviet mission to Jupiter is passed by a Chinese mission that the other team had no clue about. Hmmm.
December 29th, 2005 at 8:50 pm
will the american orbiter be able to take photos of the original lunar landing craft and all that stuff?
December 29th, 2005 at 9:35 pm
I hope this starts a new space race or moon race. Not just because of nationalistic reasons like pride and perceived national security issues, but for research, science and exploration. We have stagnated in space exploration other than in astronomical research. Our entire history as a species has always ultimately benefited us by exploration and the commerce that follows. The possibilities of space are too great to ignore. Yes there are always challenges and danger, but when was there ever an easy time? We need to get going. Get back into space for the ultimate goal of just pushing our realm of existence that much further out.
December 30th, 2005 at 3:20 am
Looks like five more stars will be added on the moon. American flag (50 stars) + Chinese Flag (5 stars). It will be starry up there!
December 30th, 2005 at 8:07 am
How cool! The more we can send into space the better! I agree with Mike, space exploration can rekindle the flame of interest in science and space. We all, as a species and as a culture, could benefit from that.
December 30th, 2005 at 8:22 am
The next moon race will be a nationalist one, particularly given that neither China nor the US trusts each other as far as they can throw each other. The objective of the next moon race will not be simply getting there, but will be a resource/land grab that will make the opening of Oklahoma Territory look like a tea party. Who’s team grabs the prime real estate on mountains in constant sunlight? Who’s team snags the crater with the highest concentration of water ice?
The fun question that I see coming is, “Which nation sends the first armed expedition to the Moon?” Getting there and back again is the easy part, now the stakes are higher.
Call me paranoid, call me a short sighted nationalist, but I feel trying to look at space exploration of this nature as somehow decoupled from the politics that finance them is extremely naive, as well as dangerous to the men and women we’ll be putting on the front line up there.
The Apollo missions were easy for the US to claim that they were done “for the benefit of all mankind”. There was nothing at stake, they were only on the surface for a day, at most, likely never to return. The US gave up nothing in sharing that knowledge and glory with the world. Putting down roots with the intention of remaining there for any length of time is a completely different animal. A US mission will place a US base on US territory. If we’re lucky, and Beijing is feeling somewhat lucid, then we might end up with a new Lunar treaty similar to that which rules how the international community handles Antarctica’s scientific outposts.
Given what I see of China’s behavior in its other endeavours, I will not be holding my breath for any hope of such cooperation. Even further down the line, once the nationalist efforts on the Moon reach a point beyond research outposts and into colonies, all bets are completely off.
December 30th, 2005 at 9:42 am
I seem to remember that there was a lunar treaty written up many years ago. Did China sign on to that? Of course, even if there is a treaty it can be broken. That’s happened many times before.
December 30th, 2005 at 9:48 am
Here’s a website:
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/mystery_monday_040202.html
December 30th, 2005 at 9:49 am
Should have researched before. The Moon Treaty – http://www.greaterearth.org/laws/moon_try.htm – has never been put into force. Guess what countries refused to sign? The US and the Soviet Union / Russia!
http://lunar.arc.nasa.gov/results/ice/moon.htm
December 30th, 2005 at 10:27 am
They’re denying that they have any immediate ambitions to send humans to the Moon:
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-12/30/content_3987886.htm
December 30th, 2005 at 11:10 am
James said:
“…they were only on the surface for a day, at most…”
Times on the lunar surface (taken from the very-well researched “A Man on the Moon” by Andrew Chaikin):
Apollo 12 : 1 day, 7 hours 31 minutes
Apollo 14 : 1 d, 9 h, 30 m
Apollo 15 : 2 d, 18 h, 54 m
Apollo 16 : 2 d, 23 h, 2 m
Apollo 17 : 3 d, 2 h, 59 m
Of course, if the Soviets had landed men on the moon at the same time, it was extrememly unlikely that they could have landed at the same place. This is because the navigation could not be that accurate, mainly due to the poorly-known distribution of mascons on the moon. Thanks to Apollo, the distribution is better known now, but being picky about a landing site still uses up fuel, and the fuel has to be hauled all the way from Earth.
December 30th, 2005 at 11:15 am
Check out the Google Copernicus Inititave at http://www.google.com/jobs/lunar_job.html .
Google is planning to launch an office on the moon.
Though some of the details sound made up (giant lava lamps?)
December 30th, 2005 at 3:22 pm
The Soviet Union had a lunar mission going on right along with Apollo Eleven in July 1969. Their craft hit the lunar surface a day after Neil Armstrong stepped on The Moon.
“Luna 15 was placed in an intermediate earth orbit after launch and was then sent toward the Moon. The spacecraft was capable of studying circumlunar space, the lunar gravitational field, and the chemical composition of lunar rocks. It was also capable of providing lunar surface photography. After completing 86 communications sessions and 52 orbits of the Moon at various inclinations and altitudes, the spacecraft impacted the lunar surface on July 21, 1969.”
How close can it get?
December 30th, 2005 at 6:17 pm
Nigel, said something about there being ‘poorly-known distribution of MASCONS on the moon. What the heck is a mascon?
December 30th, 2005 at 11:19 pm
If memory serves me correctly, MASCON is an acronym for “mass concentration”. They are areas under the lunar surface that have greater density than the surrounding crust. MASCONs have the effect of altering the gravitational force in their vicinity and thus influence the flight path of a spacecraft passing overhead.
December 31st, 2005 at 8:59 am
Jenny – sorry, I should have said.
December 31st, 2005 at 9:05 pm
On moon probes: Before Ranger 7 in July 1964, the US had tried time and again to hit the Moon but had a comical history of failures: Rangers 1 and 2 failed to get out of low Earth orbit, Ranger 3′s engine malfunctioned and it missed the Moon by over 30,000 km, Ranger 4 did hit the Moon but the electronics failed, Ranger 5 drained its batteries and failed ten hours into flight, and Ranger 6 finally did hit the Moon working, but the camera malfunctioned so no one saw anything. Before this, Pioneers “X”, “Y”, and “Z” tried to achieve lunar orbit but all failed to even get into LEO. Pioneer 4, the first US spacecraft to achieve solar orbit, flew by the Moon, but missed it by 60,000 km and didn’t even pick it up. Pioneer 3 was a sister probe that reached about 100,000 km altitude before falling back to Earth. Pioneers 0, 1, and 2, launched as early as 1958, tried to orbit the Moon, but the rocket for #0 exploded, the booster for #1 malfunctioned and sent it into a tracjetory similar to #3′s, and #2 failed to go beyond low Earth orbit. Soviet records are more spotty, but during the same period, 12 out of 17 Soviet lunar probes malfunctioned. China’s luck probably won’t be as bad, since they already have a well-developed rocket program, but it can’t be as easy as it sounds.
January 1st, 2006 at 7:26 am
Mr. Anon, I think you’re right in that it is unlikely to be as easy as it sounds. However, each failure taught the engineers and scientists in the respective space programmes some very valuable lessons. I don’t think they ever made the same mistake twice.
January 2nd, 2006 at 1:37 am
For those not familiar with the workings of the Soviet manned lunar program, one of the things that crippled it was the constant jockeying for between competing bureaus for patronage. Imagine Boeing and Lockheed each building incompatible versions of the Saturn V (LOX/kerosene vs. hypergolics) and lobbying Congress and the President to give them the other guy’s funding. Plus the head of one company denounced the other one’s CEO and got him sent to Siberia back in the 1930′s, but that’s another story…
Anyway, in 2002 I attended a seminar given by a historian familiar with the Chinese space program; during Q&A I asked her about the prospects for a Chinese manned moon shot. She indicated that the infighting between competing power bases (industrial ministries, expatriate tycoons, the PLA, etc.) would made the USSR’s efforts seem as focused as a laser.
It would be interesting, at the very least.
January 2nd, 2006 at 7:59 am
I am not naive to realize that going into space and competing with other countries may lead to armed conflict. I was just trying to state an idealistic reason for getting back into the manned exploration of space. Perhaps up there we won’t fight. But then again we just need to look at the history of humans to know that is not realistic.
January 2nd, 2006 at 8:33 am
Heh! If I were them, I’d nick the US flag off the moon while I was up there… a bit like nicking traffic cones, only way more funny*.
*Well, except for the diplomatic crisis**, that is.
**Although nicking traffic cones isn’t actually that funny, it’s still funnier than a diplomatic crisis.
January 2nd, 2006 at 12:13 pm
Outeast, I rather suspect that, after we get back to the moon and develop the ability to stay there for a significant length of time, and develop vehicles to allow extensive mobility on the lunar surface as well as cheaper and easier transport between the Earth and the Moon, pieces of original Apollo hardware from the moon will appear on ebay and fetch outrageous sums of money.
January 2nd, 2006 at 8:34 pm
I think Tranquility Base would be considered sacred ground by anybody privileged enough to go to the moon for a long time to come. In fact it is conceivable it and the other landing sites would be declared National (Interplanetary?) Parks if lunar exploration got that extensive.
January 14th, 2006 at 4:29 am
Well legal protection of the landing sites are not physical protection, it is only matter of time before some “Kilroy was here” grafitty appears on an old lander somewhere…
July 7th, 2006 at 5:04 pm
How much fuel would each mission to the moons have required. The rockets would have been on for the whole time? How big was their fuel supply?