*Well, except for the diplomatic crisis**, that is.

**Although nicking traffic cones isn’t actually that funny, it’s still funnier than a diplomatic crisis.

Anyway, in 2002 I attended a seminar given by a historian familiar with the Chinese space program; during Q&A I asked her about the prospects for a Chinese manned moon shot. She indicated that the infighting between competing power bases (industrial ministries, expatriate tycoons, the PLA, etc.) would made the USSR’s efforts seem as focused as a laser.

It would be interesting, at the very least.

“Luna 15 was placed in an intermediate earth orbit after launch and was then sent toward the Moon. The spacecraft was capable of studying circumlunar space, the lunar gravitational field, and the chemical composition of lunar rocks. It was also capable of providing lunar surface photography. After completing 86 communications sessions and 52 orbits of the Moon at various inclinations and altitudes, the spacecraft impacted the lunar surface on July 21, 1969.”

How close can it get?

Times on the lunar surface (taken from the very-well researched “A Man on the Moon” by Andrew Chaikin):
Apollo 12 : 1 day, 7 hours 31 minutes
Apollo 14 : 1 d, 9 h, 30 m
Apollo 15 : 2 d, 18 h, 54 m
Apollo 16 : 2 d, 23 h, 2 m
Apollo 17 : 3 d, 2 h, 59 m

Of course, if the Soviets had landed men on the moon at the same time, it was extrememly unlikely that they could have landed at the same place. This is because the navigation could not be that accurate, mainly due to the poorly-known distribution of mascons on the moon. Thanks to Apollo, the distribution is better known now, but being picky about a landing site still uses up fuel, and the fuel has to be hauled all the way from Earth.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-12/30/content_3987886.htm

http://lunar.arc.nasa.gov/results/ice/moon.htm

The fun question that I see coming is, “Which nation sends the first armed expedition to the Moon?” Getting there and back again is the easy part, now the stakes are higher.

Call me paranoid, call me a short sighted nationalist, but I feel trying to look at space exploration of this nature as somehow decoupled from the politics that finance them is extremely naive, as well as dangerous to the men and women we’ll be putting on the front line up there.

The Apollo missions were easy for the US to claim that they were done “for the benefit of all mankind”. There was nothing at stake, they were only on the surface for a day, at most, likely never to return. The US gave up nothing in sharing that knowledge and glory with the world. Putting down roots with the intention of remaining there for any length of time is a completely different animal. A US mission will place a US base on US territory. If we’re lucky, and Beijing is feeling somewhat lucid, then we might end up with a new Lunar treaty similar to that which rules how the international community handles Antarctica’s scientific outposts.
Given what I see of China’s behavior in its other endeavours, I will not be holding my breath for any hope of such cooperation. Even further down the line, once the nationalist efforts on the Moon reach a point beyond research outposts and into colonies, all bets are completely off.