‘
Since forever, people have tried to tie events on Earth to either the phases of the Moon or the solar sunspot cycle.
Some things do correlate, of course. Tides depend on the Moon, and some animals have their breeding cycle tied to the full Moon. Solar storms depend on the sunspot cycle; or, more accurately, the magnetic field of the Sun fluctuates on an 11 year cycle, and several other solar characteristics are wrapped up in that, including sunspots.
But some take it too far. You’ve probably heard that people act crazy during a full Moon, that there are more violent crimes, babies born, ER visits during the full Moon– ask any nurse. But this has been studied extensively, and it has been shown beyond a shadow of a doubt that in fact there is no rise in such things during a full Moon, or any other phase. It’s a selection effect– a bias in our judgement, when we remember some interesting things and forget mundane ones. If someone says more crimes happen during the full Moon, and you see an ax murder during the full Moon, then in your mind the conclusion is confirmed. But you forget all the other ax murders you saw during other phases of the Moon.
Assuming, of course, you see a lot of ax murders.
Anyway, whenever something happens in any kind of cycle, people either blame the Moon or sunspots. And now, ABC News is reporting a finding that strokes may be tied to solar flares. A Slovak doctor, Michal Kovac, found that strokes in the town of Nove Zamky rose during the time in 2000/2001 when solar activity was at a peak. Given that solar storms profoundly affect the Earth’s magnetic field, and our bodies use electricity to function, then is he on to something? As the article notes:
Despite skepticism from astronomers, Kovac and colleagues in the U.S. and Japan think fluctuations in the earth’s magnetic field caused by the ejections may disturb the electro-chemical reactions that make human bodies work.
Hey, I’m an astronomer and a skeptic. I am indeed a skeptical astronomer. For one thing, the effect on the Earth’s magnetic field happens pretty far away from the surface. It takes a pretty big hit from the Sun to affect us here on the surface (though that has happened– a big solar storm, called a coronal mass ejection, blew out power in Quebec in 1989). For another, it’s not at all clear that humans and our big pattern-finding brains are affected by the Earth’s magnetic field.
Kovac, though, says there is a history to this:
Kovac says his work, recently published in the Bratislava Medical Journal, builds on studies that show parts of the human body respond to fluctuations in the earth’s geomagnetic field caused by sun storms.
I have not heard of these studies, nor can I find this recent study online, unfortunately. I’d love to read them– if anyone out there in astroblogland can get their hands on them, please let me know. The news article says nothing about scientific tests, or statistical checks to make sure the study’s findings are robust. Was the study in Nove Zamky long-term, long enough to correlate it strongly to sunspots? Are people in Nova Zamky prone to more or fewer strokes than the average populace? Is there something else that could be causing it — like, do people in Nove Zamky have elections every 5 years, resulting in raised blood pressure?.
OK, that last one may be a bit silly but the point I’m making is that there are lots of things that affect the human body, and looking toward the Sun may be a bit of a stretch. Scientists are supposed to be skeptical, and so until I can see better data, I’m putting this one firmly in the "wait and see" category.’
May 23rd, 2006 at 2:05 am
It would be fun, wouldn’t it? If activity from the Sun caused strokes it would be just one more excuse for me to stay indoors. I get a nice tan from my computer screen already, why go outside and risk cancer or, even worse now that I know about it, a stroke? Egad!
May 23rd, 2006 at 4:29 am
Ah, but if the Sun can cause strokes and your computer has a similar influence upon you as the Sun does (i.e., you’re already getting a tan), then you run a serious risk of rupturing blood vessels the next time your computer crashes. They don’t call it the Blue Screen of Death for nothing!
May 23rd, 2006 at 7:56 am
The Bad Astronomer said: Was the study in Nove Zamky long-term, long enough to correlate it strongly to sunspots?
The article states “the 80’s” which certainly doesn’t seem like a long enough time to make that type of determination.
May 23rd, 2006 at 8:24 am
This seems to be the study mentioned in the ABC news article:
http://www.bmj.sk/2005/10612-10.pdf
Haven’t read it yet, but it’s by Kovac, and the abstract mentions solar activity.
May 23rd, 2006 at 9:18 am
Interesting. That paper specifically states in the conclusion that they are not looking for a causal mechanism, just testing the data for cycles that match known astronomical sources. For example, they look for cycles that match solar and geomagnetic activity.
I only scanned the article, but it doesn’t look to me that they scanned for close-to-but-not-exactly solar cycles, either. If they find a 5.5 year cycle, how sure are they it isn’t a 5.2 year cycle that is broad? That wasn’t clear to me from their data. I’ll give it a more thorough look later when I have time.
May 23rd, 2006 at 11:20 am
If you find stuff in Slovak that you need translated let me know, I have a number of Czech and Slovak friends that can help.
May 23rd, 2006 at 11:28 am
I used to be a werewolf
But I am alright Nooooooowwwww
May 23rd, 2006 at 11:58 am
The BA sez: “I only scanned the article, but it doesn’t look to me that they scanned for close-to-but-not-exactly solar cycles, either. If they find a 5.5 year cycle, how sure are they it isn’t a 5.2 year cycle that is broad?”
If it’s a 5.5 year cycle, doesn’t that mean it correlates to both sunspot maximum AND sunspot minimum? In other words, more strokes with lots of sunspots and lots with almost no spots. Doesn’t sound like much of a correlation to me.
- Jack
May 23rd, 2006 at 3:13 pm
From just a look at the time-series data it looks as though there are a whole load of periods present. Perhaps someone should email the author (as suggested in the paper) for a copy of the data and do a Fourier analysis.
The paper seems to largely ignore the hugely obvious linear increase in cases between 1989 and 2004.
May 23rd, 2006 at 8:07 pm
What about War’s being stopped during a Total Eclipse?
And, who can forget March 24, 1997. There was a total Lunar Eclipse in North America in tandem with Comet Hale Bopp’s passage in the sky. Those “space travelers” called “Heavens Gate” committed suicide over that. I am not sure about solar flares/spots changing human biology or states of mind. Yet—who knows? People are effected by American Idol….
May 23rd, 2006 at 8:44 pm
2000-2001 heh? Did he plot cell phone sales, along with auto accidents, with his stroke data?
May 23rd, 2006 at 9:33 pm
Stuart, that would be considered extremely bad manners (at least in the biomedical research community). If you do something like re-analyze someone’s data and find a serious flaw in the conclusions, you are supposed to tell them about first and give them a chance to deal with it. Only after that are you supposed to go public with it. Asking for their data then turning around and posting it on a blog without telling them would be considered very poor form.
May 23rd, 2006 at 9:39 pm
He didn’t say he wouldn’t tell them, just that the data could use some Fourier tests. I am not familiar with the test they mention in the paper (there are zillions of statistical tests) but it may very well be some sort of power series test.
May 24th, 2006 at 2:35 am
I think I remember that:
Introduction to geomagnetic fields by Wallace H. Campbell included some mention of a few Russian studies somewhere in it which might be the history to this (the book is a good introduction to geomagnetism).
Someone might be able to get it from a library, I could probably do so if I could be bothered.
May 24th, 2006 at 4:25 am
BA: Nice image of a big Jack-O-Lantern in the sky. I hope this Slovak doctor does not recommend that Halloween be placed on a 11 year cycle. It would be a shame to have Halloween at the mere magnetic whim of the sun.
May 24th, 2006 at 10:12 am
In spite of, as well as because of, my strong background in science, I have come to realize that my own body is influenced by the phases of the moon. In the early 70s, I injured my lower back and have been dealing with mild to serious pain ever since. Luckily, I learned early on that chiropractic adjustment works very well for me and I continue to get treatment whenever I need it, which may be once every month or two or three. I have also learned to give myself adjustments that work very well. In the late 70s, I was contemplating the idea of the moon’s effects on our lives. I had been keeping a journal for a little over three years and decided to go through it to see if there seemed to be any moon phase related patterns in my own life.
I discovered that there was a very distinct pattern with my back pain typically increasing during the few days before, on the day of, and for a day or two after both the full moon and the new moon. What stood out in particular were the times my back was bothering me for no apparent reason. Since I injured my back, it’s been relatively easy to re-injure it in various ways, so it’s easy for me to correlate some of my back problems to specific things I have sometimes done. But there are many times when I know I haven’t done anything specific to trigger the pain, yet it hurts anyway, and it needs adjustment. In my journal I had noted all the times my back was hurting and whether or not I had done something to injure it. With this data, it was easy for me to see that especially for the times my back was bothering me for no obvious re-injury related reason, there was a very high correlation (sorry, but I’m not a statistician) to the few days close to the new or full moon. Between the new and full moons, I almost never had back problems unless I had done some dumb thing to re-injure myself — and this pattern has continued through my life.
Over years of observing myself, other people and other animals, I have come to realize that the new and full moons seem to affect one’s energy, that there seems to be a consistent pattern regarding the type of effects for any particular individual, but that different individuals experience different effects, each according to their own nature, personality, conditions and situations. What this means, it seems to me, is that most if not all studies that have been done to determine whether or not the full or new moons affect our behaviors are seriously flawed. The flaw is that some particular effect (crimes, births, ER visits, etc.) is chosen as the one to use, assuming it should apply universally to all people who are affected by the moon when, in fact, there seems to be no such easily defined universal effect. If an investigator’s assumptions are false, as I am suggesting they have been, the investigation is unlikely to yield the truth of the matter which, I am suggesting, is that the phases of the moon do affect us in ways that science has not yet recognized and substantiated.
One aspect of our lives is that each of us tends to be either intellectually, emotionally or physically oriented as the basic way we approach life’s opportunities and challenges. So, the phases of the moon, if they affect us at all, are likely to affect the energies of intellectual types, emotional types, and physical types each differently. Consider that we can be injured, wounded or “messed up” not only physically but also emotionally and mentally, and that these injuries or wounds affect our personal energies as well as the way we process things and integrate them into our lives. Males and females may be affected differently. In addition, the energy of one individual may be affected in a positive manner, while in another in a negative manner. Thus, for example, one person may become hyper while another becomes depressed. While one person’s energy becomes somewhat fuzzy and chaotic, another person’s energy may become much more clear and focused. I once read that the effect of the new moon is stronger than that of the full moon in the spring, and visa versa in the fall, and some of my observations seem to support that possibility. There seem to be other variables that similarly complicate the possibilities for investigation of this perennial question. This is not going to be simple.
The only solution I can see is that a very large sample of people needs to be observed in sufficient detail such that individual patterns of behavior and experience can be discerned over at least a year but preferably several years. Both positive and negative behaviors need to be equally considered, as well as positive and negative experiences. In addition, one’s sense of self and sense of well being need to be included. Anything that affects one’s energy affects one’s ability and capacity to focus, to concentrate, to be clear, to perform, to persist, to be strong, to be confident, to be positive, to cooperate, to digest, to play, to relax, to sleep, to enjoy life, to love. All such aspects of one’s life need to be considered when investigating the possible influences of the moon on our lives.
We each go through spells, phases or cycles in our lives, but our ups and downs are unique to each of us, and we often don’t have a clue as to why we’re “up” or “down” at any given moment or period. There are many conditions and situations that affect the “ups” and “downs” of our lives, one of which seems to me to be the new and full phases of the moon. If this is true, the only way to demonstrate this is to discover consistent patterns of behavior and life experience for each individual. It may then be possible (and quite likely, I believe) to also put groups of people into various categories that include similar patterns of behaviors and experiences. Looking for any single consistent pattern that supposedly should apply to everyone simply won’t work, it’s not that simple, yet that’s exactly what all the investigations I’ve read about have tried to do.
Anyone want to take this project on? If investigations such as I’ve proposed are done and there proves to be no correlation to the phases of the moon, I’ll certainly be willing to accept those results. But then I’d sure like to find some legitimate explanations for many of the things I’ve observed in my own life and the lives of others.
May 24th, 2006 at 12:27 pm
The problem is if you look at enough factors, you are going to be able to fit at least one of them to just about any cycle you can imagine, whether there is really any connection or not. This is especially true if you look at both the peaks and the troughs of the cycle and a few days before and after.
Let’s take your moon example. You say “the few days before, on the day of, and for a day or two after”. To take that literally, it would be 3 days before, the day of, and 2 days after. That is six days. Since you count both the high and low points of the cycle you must multiply this by two to get 12 days. In a roughly 30-day cycle, about 40%, nearly half, the days fall on one of the days you count as a “hit”. And did you stick to that time period exactly, or did you perhaps allow 3 days after, or 4 days before, or more? 3 days after or 4 days before bumps it up to 46%, both raises it to 53%. The temptation to extend the range a bit would certainly be there.
What is more, you said, “I had been keeping a journal for a little over three years and decided to go through it to see if there seemed to be any moon phase related patterns in my own life.” So you went in specifically looking for a match the the lunar cycle. You also, it would seem, were looking at a lunar calander as you went through your journal, were you not? That means you knew when you looked at a particular date whether it was as a day that matched your criteria or not. It is easy enough to interpret data from something very subjective like a journal to match your hypothesis.
Studies have been done that did exactly what you did, giving people journals and telling them what they were supposed to be looking for, that shows they tended to interpret the journal to match the phenomenon they are supposed to be looking for. It is extremely easy to do and very common.
What is more, there is nothing to go on but your own subjective interpretation of how they matched. You didn’t do any analysis to see whether there was any real correlation between your injuries and lunar cycles. People tend to remember the hits and either forget or downplay the misses in something like this, meaning a non-numerical analysis is meaningless, not that a numerical analysis on a subjective, non-double blind study like this would have any meaning either. This has also been established, people will grossly overstimate how well two things match if they are going in expecting them to match.
In the end the only way to really test your journal entries would be to take them out, assign each one a random number (keeping the connection between the dates and numbers elsewhere), randomly shuffle them, then have someone else numerically score them for the severity of pain and whether there was an obvious reason, connect the scores with the dates, then have a computer do a statistical analysis on the scores to see how well they correlate with lunar cycles, probably weighting the correlation sinusoidally for how close it is to a minimum or maximum (days that are closer to a minimum or maximum should be more likely to match than days that are farther).
May 24th, 2006 at 2:32 pm
TheBlackCat – Good points. I’m actually surprised somebody put so much effort into responding to MoonStruck.
There are a number of red flags that immediately set off my alarms when reading someone’s post.
First is when the author uses the term “energy” or “energies” in place of words like aura, lifeforce, attitude, feelings, chi, whatever. You know, instead of using the term “energy” in the proper manner. Using the term energy is just sciency enough to allow the author to make his or her dubious connections to electromagnetic field fluctuations or gamma ray bursts or whatever it takes to explain those mysterious back pains or mood swings.
The second is their assumption that certain energies, forces or effects are so subtle and complex that they work in ways as yet unknown to science. Science can’t yet observe or measure them. Oddly, this makes more sense to the credulous than simply assuming that the force or effect doesn’t actually exist. Instead they would rather assume a complex convoluted unobservable myriad of force interactions that somehow is unknowable to science, and try then to explain everyday random phenomena in terms of this force.
And the next step in this credulity parade is to claim that different subjects will all be affected by a phenomena in seemingly random disparate ways. For example, says Moonstruck, one person’s “energy” may be affected by the full moon negatively, while another’s may be affected positively. In other words, forget “controls” and “consistency”, lets just find a way to explain the amazing breadth and width of patterns of behaviors and health by assuming the affect is variable.
That’s not science, Moonstruck, it’s voodoo. Fung Shui. Magic. Whatever you want to call it.
I am highly amused. Thanks.
May 25th, 2006 at 2:01 am
TheBlackCat, thanks for your comments. I understand the temptations to fit data to a preconceived notion. However, when I went through my journal, I approached the topic as a curious skeptic, doubting I would find anything in my life that might correlate to the phases of the moon. I went through my subjective entries as objectively as I could and tried to “rate” various ups and downs that I had recorded on a timeline without any other info on it – in other words, it did not have moon phases on it. After I had finished this process, I added the new and full moons to the appropriate dates. I didn’t find any correlations other than the various levels of pain in my back which, as I indicated, was very clear and strong. I noticed that “tension” and “minor pain” typically began three to four days before the new or full moon, pain increased the closer I got to the new or full moon, the pain typically climaxed on the new or full date or the day before, and had usually subsided significantly by the second day after, though most often by the first day after. I also notice that my tendency to do something to injure my back seemed to be much greater during the three days preceding the new or full moon. Most of my “as needed” chiropractic adjustments happened a day or two before the new or full moon, unless a weekend made me wait until Monday which may have been after the moon date. There were a few data points that did not fit this pain/injury pattern, but only very few.
I realize my self observation does not constitute rigorous scientific study. Just the same, though, the evidence I’ve collected in the exercise just described and during my continuing observation over the years strongly suggests to me that there seems to be some truth to the idea that new and full moons can and do affect my/our behaviors and experiences of life. My “rating” of my journal data hardly provides anything worthy of in depth statistical analysis, yet I believe it would be worthwhile for someone with the time, money, abilities to perform rigorous research, and an open, inquisitive nature to do a proper study of this purported phenomenon. It would be worthwhile because it is, as I noted, a perennial question and, regardless of the outcome of such a study, it would help clarify the nature of our humanity and our relationship to aspects of our environment.
DJ, I’m glad you are so “highly amused” and thanks for your comments, too. I use the word “energy” because that’s exactly what seems to be affected, though I might more accurately state that this is directly related to one’s control over one’s energy. And I specifically used “energies” because it seems to me that it is worthwhile distinguishing between intellectual energy, emotional energy and physical energy even though they are aspects of one’s overall energy level. Regarding the other terms you mentioned, “life force” and “chi” are, in my mind, essentially equivalent to one’s overall energy, “attitudes” and “feelings” and “auras” are aspects and evidence of one’s behavior patterns and life experience, so they fit into the list of examples of things that need to be monitored to reveal any patterns that might occur. Rather than picking on particular vocabulary, it would be more productive for you to try to get a sense of what I’m attempting to say. In the realm of human behavior, unless one wants to stick with something like the DSM III, meanings of aren’t as easily definable as they are in realms such as physics or chemistry. I’m using the best words I can come up with to point at aspects of human experience in hopes that you’ll “get it” based on your own experience of life.
Regarding these energies involved, I did not and would not say that “science can’t yet observe or measure them” nor that any of this is “unknowable to science ” as you suggested. Instead, I’ll say that the scientific method has not yet been appropriately applied to study them, particularly in this context of investigating the possibilities of the moon’s influence on our lives. So far, studies have been made on the basis of erroneous assumptions and thus produced unreliable results. I am, in fact, advocating that there seems to be something here that is worth studying in a scientific manner and that is based on my assumption that this stuff actually is knowable by science if this question is approached in a truly scientific manner. In other words, I am skeptical of past investigations and their assumptions and methods because the scientists involved seem to have been unable to think outside the boxes they had put themselves into.
A study designed as I have suggested would clarify whether or not there are consistent fluctuations within the usual patterns of behavior for individuals that correlate to the changing phases of the moon. Data would have to be obtained in as objective a manner as possible, using standard scales for measuring physical pain and discomfort, as well as similar scales (are there already some or do they all need to be developed?) for rating aspects such as emotional and mental pain and discomfort, clarity of thought, ability to concentrate, feeling positive or negative (physically, emotionally, mentally), quality of relaxation and sleep, capacity to love. Of course these “objective” ratings would all be according to the test subjects’ subjective sense of themselves, but that’s actually part of what is being tested for. The test subjects would need to be unaware that their responses would later be analyzed to see if they correlate to new and full moons. Ideally, they would fill in responses on their data journal on a daily basis for a long time, which may be a real stretch for almost anyone. I think there may also be some possibilities for doing less complete data collection, such as analyzing patient treatment and condition records from health professionals such as physical and occupational therapists, or chiropractors. The main weakness here, though, is that people who are intellectually or emotionally oriented to life – presumably about two thirds of the population – would not be represented.
As an added observation, we are nearing a new moon and my cat is starting to behave in her usual way. She’s meowing and looking for attention a lot more than usual, and sitting in my lap right now. She’s wanting to go outside more than usual (which is seldom in her old age – now 13). She’ll also be up running around, playing and meowing at least a couple of time a night for the next three nights and then she’ll go back to being quiet all night until we get close to the full moon. I’ve been observing her do this for 13 years – lots of moon cycles – without fail. And also the other cats we’ve had over the years. Oh, and my back is feeling pretty tense today, although it’s mostly tired right now from a couple of hours of vigorous three on three volleyball this evening. It’s getting a bit harder for this old guy, but still lots of fun, and most weeks we have more people playing.
Thanks again to both of you for your considered and quite reasonable feedback.
May 25th, 2006 at 7:20 am
Hi, Moonstruck. I don’t doubt that your pain levels fluctuated in a cycle corresponding to the Lunar cycle. My hub is a long-time sufferer from lower back problems, so I know how it fluctuates. But did you consider all factors?
For instance, when the Moon is Full, or near Full, you’d keep glancing up at the night sky to admire it, no doubt; you’d spend more time standing and looking upwards; you’d spend more time walking around outside at night because of the extra light. Would that put a little more strain on your back?
And maybe there are other physical activities you tend to do more of once or twice a month on a regular basis. Since you seem to keep a detailed journal, have you looked at that?
May 25th, 2006 at 9:06 am
Moonstruck said:
Your phrasing is rather accusatory. There is nothing wrong with the studies done, and the scientists were not unnecessarily boxing themselves in. The studies done were done in response to specific claims – claims that, for instance, people go crazy during full moons, there are more arrests, Emergency Rooms are busier, cops have stranger nights, etc. It is those claims that the tests were run to study. The tests were perfectly adequate to test those claims, and showed the claims false. It is unfair for you to state that the scientists are at fault for not anticipating your particular claim.
May 25th, 2006 at 6:04 pm
sophia8, thanks for your thoughts but no, there’s not much regularity in my lifestyle, especially over the 25+ years I’ve been observing these things. And I only kept that one journal for a little more than three years before I decided journal keeping like that didn’t feel like something I wanted to do anymore, so I haven’t. In fact, I had already quit journaling some time before I consulted it as described above. Looking up has always been good for my back. It’s bending over and pulling things toward me that usually causes me the most trouble, along with sitting on seats that slant back at all. I don’t think looking at the moon has caused me to become moonstruck.
Irishman, you’re right. I’m actually thinking about how it seems that the results of these very specific experiments are so often expanded in interpretation to suggest that the new and full moons do not affect us in any way, especially when they are considered collectively as providing a substantial amount of evidence contradicting the possibility of moon influences in our lives. So, what I should really be saying is that I don’t accept these past investigations as providing convincing evidence, individually or collectively, against moon influences because they were not designed in such a way that they could provide such evidence. Thanks for pointing that out so I could, hopefully, clarify.
April 10th, 2008 at 6:12 am
The statements here are not the whole truth. There has been a high correlation between the local high tide calculated based on local moon zenith and the incidence of onset of birth (labor). Which suggests there is not just bad astronomy, but bad ideas like “cold fusion”/”global warming”/”flat earth” dressed up as science. As a scientist I abore the muppets who produce and perpetuate such bad science. The real problem! (dja.)