Well, Mount Mayon still hasn’t blown, and the full Moon was over a week ago. So much for that prediction.
But in the update I posted a few days back, I mentioned an article in German that I couldn’t read. BABloggee "Chaos" (who lives in my heart as the man who instigated the Great TAM Chocolate Challenge) sent me a rough translation. I present it here for you, without any knowledge if it’s accurate or not. 
Any emphasis added is mine.
Volcanologists warn of an explosive eruption of the Mayon. The volcano shook more than a hundred times in the last few days and released major amounts of gas. The current calm could indicate an imminent violent eruption.
The activity of the Mayon has decreased slightly in the last few hours, but volcanologists do not consider this a reason to take back previous warnings. Over the course of 24 hours, about 20 volcanic earthquakes were registered, compared with more than 100 the day before, the Philippine institute for volcanology and seismology stated. At the same time, the emission of toxic sulphur dioxide had decreased markedly.
The fluctuations are a sign that the volcano is still restless, Ernesto Corpuz of the volcanological institute said. The institute called the temporary quiet “abnormal”. “Therefore, we still must be very careful”. The institute’s director Renato Solidum said that the gravitational attraction of the moon could have some influence of the volcanic activity.
“It is like the moon gives a volcano a massage”, Ernesto Corpuz declared. At least three of the Mayon’s almost 50 eruptions within the last four centuries had coincided with the full moon – including the two most recent eruptions in 2000 and 2001.
So now we have a name to one of the experts who made the Moon-volcano connection. I am still of the opinion that no such connection has been plausibly made, and while it’s an interesting conjecture scientifically, reporting it to the press is perhaps not the wisest choice. If the eruption happens, it’s likely to skew perception of the real connection (or lack thereof), and if it doesn’t it’s a "cry wolf" scenario with which volcanologists are all-too aware.
August 16th, 2006 at 9:35 pm
Who knows, maybe it’ll erupt NEXT full moon? I wonder what Corpuz would say then?
August 16th, 2006 at 11:07 pm
What’s lunar phase got to do with it again? I could look it up, but all my books are packed away from a recent move… is our moon’s phase coincidentally linked to perigee and/or apogee? I would think that the moon’s distance from Earth would have more of a gravitational effect than its phase, unless the position of the moon around Earth coupled with the sun’s gravitational pull has something to do with it.
Sorry if I sound a bit dumb; I’m exhausted, and my brain’s shutting down!
August 17th, 2006 at 1:11 am
So 3 in 50 eruptions have coincided with a full moon, roughly 1 in 16.5.
The lunar cycle is roughly 30 days long, so you get a full moon once every 30 days. However I reckon for events like this, a full moon could be implied either side of the actual full moon day.
Therefore that’s 3 days out of 30 that someone could claim an eruption on a full moon. This is 1 in 10, and so I reckon you could validly claim that Mount Mayon erupts LESS on a full moon!
What did Benjamin Disraeli say, “Lies, damned lies and statistics”!!
August 17th, 2006 at 2:01 am
It is certainly not the wisest choice to report it to the press! It is extremely irresponsible! In fact, this man now qualifies as a crank in my book. If ever his employment comes to be decided by me, you can expect to find him cleaning toilets in a run-down Nevada Motel with his sunday clothes.
August 17th, 2006 at 5:28 am
As I said last time, another name making connections between the Moon and volcanoes is Stephen James O’Meara. There was a show on the National Geographic Channel on Monday night about the Moon. The show had its good and bad moments (the explanatory graphics could have been better at times). Steve and his wife, Donna, were on the show talking about their examination of how the Moon may influence eruptions. If you want some insight from an astronomer, talk to Steve.
August 17th, 2006 at 7:06 am
If it’s related to tidal forces, what about eruptions at the new moon as well?
August 17th, 2006 at 7:17 am
So, 94% of the time, eruptions don’t occur during a full moon.
Hmmm, with those odds, I think I’ll go buy me a lottery ticket.
August 17th, 2006 at 7:51 am
This guy is a lunatic.
August 17th, 2006 at 8:23 am
Darn, I really need a good massage. Do you think the Moon could give me one?
GAry 7
August 17th, 2006 at 8:56 am
You might think Solidum would go with solid evidence.
August 17th, 2006 at 9:03 am
Stuart, I’m not saying the Moon does not cause volcanic eruptions. I’m saying that in this case, for Mount Mayon, there is no evidence for it.
August 17th, 2006 at 11:13 am
CR, the explanation that makes the most sense is the tidal influence. The tides are, of course, active every day – twice a day for highs and lows, in fact. However, the Sun also contributes to tides – IIRC about 1/2 as much as the Moon. Or is it 1/3? Anyway, when the Moon is full you get the Moon and Sun essentially on opposite sides, so the tidal stresses add. When you are at quarter waxing or waning (a “half moon”), then you get the minimal tides because the solar variance is 90 deg off from the lunar variance. Only problem is, as others have specified, if the Full moon is using tides, then it should just as readily be affected by a New moon, as the physics is the same for when the Sun and Moon are on the same side as opposite sides. But the scientists proposing a Full Moon effect don’t seem to be looking at the New moon effect, so they are immediately suspect.
Of course if the proposed Full Moon effect is not tidal, then all bets are off. Magic isn’t constrained to be consistent.
August 17th, 2006 at 12:06 pm
Maybe they were looking in the wrong place?
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,20169108-401,00.html
‘At least 60 missing after Tungurahua volcano erupts’
August 17th, 2006 at 9:39 pm
Thanks, Irishman! I was extremely tired when I posted, and knew there was something simple yet critical missing from the whole moon thing… wish I’d been coherent enough to figure it out myself!
I do believe that tidal effects could have some influence on Earthly volcanic activity. Jupiter’s moon Io leaps to mind as one example of tidal vulcanism within our solar system, although it’s considerably different than the Earth-Moon thing. I agree though that if the moon’s tidal effect on Earth is strong at full moon, it should also be so at new moon.
I think what really needs to be done here is to take a hard look at all the data available and see if there is any correlation between lunar position and volcanic eruptions, THEN try to figure out if there is a causational effect going on. It’s an interesting hypothesis; now let’s get the data to support (or reject) it.
January 8th, 2007 at 5:25 pm
Full Moon Wednesday, January 3, 2007 at 9:57 AM over the Montserrat Volcano disturbance.