Bob Carroll reminds me that you should read the Skeptic Dictionary Newsletter. Really, everyone should, including psychic frauds (sorry for the tautology), new age (rhymes with "sewage") medical scammers, chiropractors, and even the odd astrologer.
Read it and learn. You’ll be glad you did– and probably angry, too.
Hmmm… while spell-checking this entry, my dictionary in the Google task bar knew how to spell "chiropractor". I think that makes me a little sad.
If you went to BadAstronomy.com and found yourself here, never fear: the BA Blog has moved to its new home at Discover Blogs. The original BA site (with the Moon Hoax debunking and all that) is still online, too.
Phil Plait, the creator of Bad Astronomy, is an astronomer, lecturer, and author. After ten years working on Hubble Space Telescope and six more working on astronomy education, he struck out on his own as a writer. He has written two books, dozens of magazine articles, and 12 bazillion blog articles. He is a skeptic, and fights misuses of science as well as praising the wonder of real science.
Contact me: The Bad Astronomer "at" gmail "dot" com
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"Reading this book is like getting punched in the face by Carl Sagan. Frightening, but oddly exhilarating."
-- Daniel H. Wilson, author of How to Survive a Robot Uprising
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August 21st, 2006 at 1:54 pm
Phil, this is a totally unrelated comment but is it possible for you to increase the number of entries in your RSS feed from the measly two that you now have? The number has been dropping for some time and I find that you frequency of writing means that I now often miss things because they have disappeared from the RSS feed.
August 21st, 2006 at 1:54 pm
Ugh! I can’t believe I never subscribed to the skepdic newsletter before! I’ve read all of it; I’ve followed and read most of the useful links. Thanks for this reminder, Phil!
PS: this comment page refreshed about 10 times on me for some reason, in the middle of my typing.
August 21st, 2006 at 2:25 pm
well, there can be legit chiropractors, who don’t claim that what they do is some miracle cure. It’s not entirely fair to group ALL chiropractors (though certainly some fit) in with those other people.
I mean, it does feel good to get your back popped, but it ain’t going to cure your E.D., and not all chiropractors claim this.
August 21st, 2006 at 2:45 pm
I think that
mathturbation should be in that dictionary.
August 21st, 2006 at 2:56 pm
Mathturbation, eh? Before I even go to that link, I’m going to assume it has something to do with this joke:
August 21st, 2006 at 2:57 pm
Damn. I was wrong. But I like my version better.
August 21st, 2006 at 5:00 pm
Phil P:
(This query is OFF the topic, so ignore the rest of this paragraph if you want.) I just received a letter from the Planetary Society re the “…mountain of rock and iron…hurtling towards us from space. But in 2029, it will make a spectaculary close passage by our planet. When it does, its orbit around the sun will be affected.
“A shift of just a few hundred kilometers, and Apophis could return to slam into Earth…
“…it’s up to us – the membes of The Planetary Society -…to inspire humankind to discover more about those potentially dangerous objects swarming around our solar system.”
Two things about this bother me: (1) the letter contiues as a plea for money to support a contest to design a “tag” for the asteroid which will track its path., and (2) I’ll be dead, most likely, before this whole idea pans out.
I’m aware of the vastness of space; I realize that there are perils out there which might cause damage to Earth (they certainly seem to have done so in the past). But I don’t see how science could possibly miss something like this with our current technology, let alone what might be available in the next decade or so. And, even if we could determine that Earth might be impacted with the next go round of this asteroid (or any other), just how could we STOP the impact from happening? Wouldn’t that require even more sophisticated equipment not even possible to create within the next 20 or even 50 years? I would certainly contribute to a worthwhile cause (regardless of the status of my existence), but how realistic is this idea – even coming from The PS? This idea sure sounds like a scare tactic to me…
August 21st, 2006 at 6:30 pm
Rumpology??? Are you sure they’re not making this stuff up? Hey, maybe I could go to Hollywood and become Rumpologist to the Stars!
Kidding aside, the most amazing thing is that people buy into this kind of idea. It’s easy enough to laugh about it, but when people start committing suicide because their anus readers told them to (ala Heaven’s Gate), it becomes less humerous . We read BA, Skeptic Circle, sites that tell us what bogus stuff is out there, but what do the people who believe this crap read? And the question for we who think we’ve got a better point of view must be; Do we just give these people Darwin awards or do we try to teach them about what we ‘believe’, and, if so, how?
Sorry to get so serious. I’ll try not to let it happen again.
August 21st, 2006 at 8:49 pm
“anus readers” ???
August 21st, 2006 at 9:49 pm
I signed up for the skepdic newsletter now, an issue once a month or so won’t clog the mailbox!
Will M. : It’s a scam. Today’s astronomers are perfectly capable of determining orbits of asteroids and tracking them, PS is probably discussing this asteroid: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news146.html
The asteroid is about 400m long, if we really needed to I’m sure a nuclear device would take care of it. (actually I’m pretty impressed that astronomers can track an asteroid only 400m in diameter)
August 21st, 2006 at 9:57 pm
Don’t be so sure, Triangleman. If it is 400m long, even it it is an asteroid mostly of gathered dust, if it has sufficient mass and a high enough velocity, then it can be traveling with enough kinetic energy that destroying it or merely dirupting its momentum is beyond our abilities. Judging an asteroid by its length alone cannot describe how dangerous it is.
August 22nd, 2006 at 7:48 am
Impact movies aside, the best rendition of this scenario was Larry Nivens/Jerry Pournelles SciFi story Lucifers HAmmer. Pournelle is/was a phycisist and did some great calculations for the story, including a mile high tsunami hitting the Calif. coast, complete with surfer riding the wave,,,Great imagery.
Talking about moving asteroids around is a great way to see just how ineffectual we are at present and how competant we COULD be if we just set our minds to the task. Of course, the eventual goal of large scale space construction MUST include the technical ability to move large asteroids to wherever we need them.
It’s not a scare tactic to point out we haven’t been visited by aliens, perhaps because they were wiped out by an asteroid before they had the ability to defend themselves. Will we be slapping our foreheads somewhere down the line, because we COULD have done something to prepare for the worst, but were too lacking in vision and determination to take the ASteroid by the horns and master it?
Perhaps I’ll still be around and able to say, “Idiots, I TOLD you sooooo,,,!”.
GAry 7
August 22nd, 2006 at 11:48 am
Triangleman, “Scam” is not accurate. A friend of mine is an astronomer employed by NASA working on the very program of planetary defense. I can with authority state that we can’t just hurl a nuke or two at it and no more worries.
For starters, composition is very important in the possible effects of a blast. If the asteroid is loosely packed, a blast might make a sizable crater and impart almost no change to the motion, being absorbed by the inelastic collision like a bullet into a clay pot. Do you remember the clay pot experiment for inelastic collisions and kinetic energy from physics class? (We used an arrow.)
The truth is we don’t currently have a means to get an explosive there, we don’t know which strategies work best against different compositions, and we don’t know that a nuclear blast will obliterate the problem. It could make it worse. Instead of one large chunk, get a whole bunch of smaller impacts scattered around, with the same total impact energy.
The Planetary Society is doing their thing – they are trying to get money out of their membership. That’s what groups like that do – they give you some information (newsletters, etc), and they ask you for money to fund their endeavors. One of their endeavors is concern over the potential of an asteroid impact, and the dearth of funding for addressing the concerns – both through detection and means of doing something about it if we do discover “the big one”. You may legitimately argue that their concern is misplaced. You may legitimately question the importance or the method of hitting up paid members for more money. But it does not qualify as a “scam” – their concern is legitimate and their monetary request will be put into programs for addressing that concern, and they are describing the programs on which it will be spent. They’re not lining the pockets of a few executives (and no one there makes fees like execs and public for-profit corporations). They’re not performing bait and switch – send in money to study asteroid defense and they spend it on a satellite to monitor global warming. It is in no way a “scam”, and to characterize it as such is an insult to the Planetary Society’s integrity.
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:23 pm
Will M., note that even though we can do a pretty good job of orbital tracking and calculations, there still is no accurate model or calculation method for the three-body program in orbital dynamics. We can project into the future, but there is no guarantee that long term effects won’t change the eventual outcome. It’s a “chaotic” system, from chaos theory. Kind of like weather prediction. Meteorologists can do a decent job of projecting the next 2 or 3 days, and reasonable job out to a week or two, but after than you can’t trust a thing they say.
Currently the models don’t show a collision, but the potential is there in 2029 if something in the calculation is off or if there is an uncontrolled factor (say a close pass to the asteroid by a comet that we don’t know about).
>Two things about this bother me: (1) the letter contiues as a plea for money to support a contest to design a “tag†for the asteroid which will track its path.,
What about that bothers you? The fact that they’re requesting money? That’s what groups like this do. You join up for the privilege of contributing to their programs and agendas. They come up with neat ways to spend money to accomplish goals, and you give them money for it because you agree with the goals.
Or is what bothers you the specific plan, a contest to “tag” an asteroid to track it’s path? I don’t know enough about this particular program to comment fully, but it sounds like an idea to foster investment in study of asteroids.
> and (2) I’ll be dead, most likely, before this whole idea pans out.
Planetary defense is not something that will develop in a few years. There simply isn’t enough political worry over the problem so there isn’t the dedicated attention and funding. The Planetary Society is an organization that is dedicated to long term solutions and long term impacts on humanity. People who are members of the organization should understand that.
> And, even if we could determine that Earth might be impacted with the next go round of this asteroid (or any other), just how could we STOP the impact from happening? Wouldn’t that require even more sophisticated equipment not even possible to create within the next 20 or even 50 years? I would certainly contribute to a worthwhile cause (regardless of the status of my existence), but how realistic is this idea – even coming from The PS? This idea sure sounds like a scare tactic to me…
With a dedicated effort on the scale of Apollo, I’m sure we could come up with some serious results in a decade. With the funding we’re foreseeable to get, it could possibly take 20 to 50 years to get anywhere. This asteroid may or may not be a real threat. It is very likely there is a real threat in the future, we just can’t put a timeline on it. Should we spend some money now and begin investigating the problem and finding solutions, or wait because the threat isn’t emminent?
As for whether it is a “scare tactic”, that’s a bit of a subjective evaluation. It depends upon how serious you think the threat really is for the foreseeable future, and how concerned you are over the current lack of a means to do anything about it, even necessarily detect it. Yes, we could get blind-sided by some “Big” object (like a comet) coming in from the direction of the Sun so we can’t see it till it’s right on top of us. That’s the nightmare scenario my astronomer friend stays up nights thinking about.*
*Okay, he works nights – he’s an astronomer. It keeps him awake days.
August 22nd, 2006 at 2:48 pm
Gotta love scifi titles with “hammer” in them, eh Gary?
August 22nd, 2006 at 3:31 pm
All:
Thanks for the insights. I joined the PS principally for its championing of the exploration of space and because they seem to support my own bias to return people to the space part of the equation. But, if we don’t survive long enough to even begin our travels (2029 is the supposed close encounter with Apophis, and then if it misses, I guess the next time around might be closer), then mankind in space is a moot point. I didn’t think it was a scam; I trust the Society to not pull a bait and switch. I just wasn’t sure how realistic is a contest to devise a method to redirect an object which has only the potential to wipe out the Earth. And I am hoping to live long enough see manned space missions begin for real (while realizing the enormous problems they pose). So, if the Apophis threat isn’t really dire, but only potentially dire, then fragmenting a very limited budget didn’t seem like a good idea.
August 22nd, 2006 at 4:44 pm
From what you posted, the contest appears to be merely to tag the asteroid for tracking, not any actually moving it. The value of that can be debated.
August 22nd, 2006 at 10:18 pm
Whoops, looks like I’m seriously eating crow here.
I’m really sorry about calling the PS a scam everyone – I confused them with groups like the Sirius Research Society – a very bad oversight on my part. I’m obviously hanging out at ‘crank.net’ too much.
Really sorry about that. (Actually I’m surprised that there weren’t more flames about my post.)
August 22nd, 2006 at 10:34 pm
“But it does not qualify as a “scam†– their concern is legitimate and their monetary request will be put into programs for addressing that concern, and they are describing the programs on which it will be spent. They’re not lining the pockets of a few executives (and no one there makes fees like execs and public for-profit corporations). ”
I just looked at the PS’s financial statements and it appears that their focus is on education via the distribution of their magazine/newsletters. Not a lot of their funds goes to research grants – of revenue of ~$3,000,000 in 2005 only $152,000 was spent on grants – primarily to SETI, while around $900,000 was related to publication and postage for their magazine. Three of their employees makes >$100,000 a year. If someone wants to donate money to direct research on asteroids there might be more efficient means of doing so.
August 23rd, 2006 at 2:01 am
Phil, thanks for increasing the number of RSS entries. I can now just about keep up with you
August 23rd, 2006 at 1:36 pm
Yes, Triangleman, they are primarily an organization of Space Advocacy. This is done via newsletters and magazine, and via monitoring Congressional activity on space issues, as well as education. They do have some funding for space and technology research, but it is a relatively small component, not the primary goal – space advocacy.