If it weren’t for Yahoo!News, I sometimes wonder if there would be any Bad Astronomy news to report.
What is it this time? Your astrological sign is related to your car accident rate.
The study, which looked at 100,000 North American drivers’ records from the past six years, puts Libras (born September 23-October 22) followed by Aquarians (January 20-February 18) as the worst offenders for tickets and accidents
I’m a Libra, as it turns out, and I have had one speeding ticket and one car accident in my life. Both were when I was young, and I can look back on both and say it was definitely the stupidity of youth and not the fact that I was born in September that had anything to do with it.
Anecdotes, of course, are not evidence, but the Yahoo!News article doesn’t give any real references, so I can’t follow up on this immediately. However, I do know that every study on astrology, when done correctly, shows that astrology simply doesn’t work. It cannot predict trends any better than random chance.
Studies like this are notoriously difficult to do, because there are lots of factors that can influence the results. Did they account for weekends, holidays, weather? What was the actual range of dates used to study the accidents? Were they chosen in a way to minimize any systematic effects? How did they normalize the factors?
The insurance company who did the study doesn’t have anything about it on their website, but I plan on forwarding this to my friend Ivan Kelly who has done extensive studies of astrology (again, see my astrology page for more). I’m sure he’ll have some comments about it.
Tip o’ the cap(ricorn) to the zillions of people who emailed me about this silliness.
December 15th, 2006 at 3:57 pm
You know, I’ve always wondered if there could be tiny seasonal variations — that, for instance, someone who enters toddlerhood confined indoors during Winter might have a slightly different perspective on the world than someone who was better able to roam the backyard at that point. So any study claiming effects based on someone’s sun sign would have to refute such alternatives.
December 15th, 2006 at 4:13 pm
I think James Randi covered this on his page a few weeks back.
December 15th, 2006 at 4:13 pm
The only way this could be SOMEWHAT true is the fact that Libras are born near the winter months and road conditions and inexperienced driving can be dangerous.
December 15th, 2006 at 4:35 pm
I am not interested in going to the item to check out how us 500 million Virgo’s drive; but I always wondered why I was so far out of the description of a Virgo (when I was a kid I wondered.) Some astrologer once told me that we have to dig deeper and find out the exact positions of the planets when I was born and ask other questions to narrow down my “true personality;” was I on the cusp, was mercury intersecting venus?
So, I found it amusing last summer when the astronomers decided that Pluto is a “lesser planetoid” that the astrologers complained that they were not consulted in the decision. Now they are going to have to re-write all of their charts.
So, the question arises. According to the astrologers, are heavenly bodies more powerful than the people to which they endow traits? Or are we more powerful than the heavenly bodies? Why would Pluto give a rat’s fig about how we classify it? When it is time to rain its influence over all of us folks on earth, will Pluto suddenly take a crap on us?
Astrology is goofiness, the ultimate expression of the anthropic principle if you axe me.
December 15th, 2006 at 4:39 pm
Absolutely deadlocked!
http://x7e.xanga.com/b2bd452a1063695369948/w66711593.bmp
December 15th, 2006 at 5:06 pm
Here is what is on the web site.
http://www.insurancehotline.com/a10.html
Guess you have to buy the book!
Rob
December 15th, 2006 at 5:33 pm
Christian is correct, except Tthe Amazing One was talking about three other, completely unrelated studies. According to the studies Geminis, Capricorns, and now Libras are simultaneously the worst drivers. That does not boast well for their reliability. The insurance companies also did not seem to be too trusting of the results, having no plans to charge different fees depending on your birth month.
Linky:
http://www.randi.org/jr/2006-09/09806guess.html#i9
http://www.randi.org/jr/2006-09/091506remembering.html#i11
I suspect it was probably more of a “hey, we have all these numbers, lets try correlating them with random stuff and see what we get.” I can tell you that if I had that sort of information and too much time on my hands I would try random correlation. Especially if I am being paid to determine those sorts of correlations. That might even have been trying to boost hits to their websites (perhaps in a variant on the old “raincheck” scam).
December 15th, 2006 at 5:36 pm
I guess if astrology has a redeeming quality it is that it can make me laugh. I suppose that people take it seriously isn’t funny. Hopefully the insurance companies won’t start using it; I wouldn’t put it past them: in the past they’ve used the fact that you’re overdue for an accident as reason to raise rates. What’s interesting I suppose lets say by chance Libras were the best they’d have no trouble coming up with an explanation like Libras are well balanced and therefore good drivers since Libras came out the worst they say “Libra doesn’t like to make snap decisions. But rush hour traffic is not a time for seeking driver approval, or for being indecisive.” Nothing but post hoc attribution here, like a flag in the wind it goes whichever way it is being pushed.
I’d actually like to see more though. I want to see the numbers and the constructs of the study. In this case the construct validity must be established to prove the conclusions.
It is tempting to plunk down the $10.95 for the e-book I’d enjoy ripping it a new one, but I’d feel guilty buying that one before buying Phil’s book(HA HA).
December 15th, 2006 at 5:36 pm
Alyssa, PNG (or JPG) is your friend. Uploading BMPs to the web is a bad idea – completely uncompressed.
December 15th, 2006 at 6:16 pm
This was something I saw earlier today, but I saw it backwards: that the greatest number of accidents occurred DURING September 23 to October 22, and in a later article someone saying “Libra’s beware”. And naturally, I can’t find the original article to reference, so count my recollection as hearsay until proven otherwise.
December 15th, 2006 at 6:24 pm
OptimusShr said:
“The only way this could be SOMEWHAT true is the fact that Libras are born near the winter months and road conditions and inexperienced driving can be dangerous.”
Indeed OptimusShr. People tend to start driving on or near their birthdays. The BA might not get snow down their in CA (or whereever), but here in Sept-Oct we normally have snow, and icy conditions. Even experienced drivers sometimes crash during the first few days of snow/ice as they relearn the ropes. For an inexperienced driver? Instant Fenderbender (or death:P).
December 15th, 2006 at 8:13 pm
Umm, SOME group has to have the highest statistical accident rate, and it doesn’t matter what categories you are comparing.
Between people of different hair color one group will have had more accidents than the other – marginally. Between people who have had their appendix removed and people who haven’t, one group will have had a statistically insignificant greater number of accidents. Between people better at math, history, or art; between fans of competing sports teams; between people of differing heights… None of it, of course, has any significant meaning with regard to actual driving competency.
Correlation does not equal causation.
It reminds me of some of those baseball statistics. This batter has the highest average against pitcher “X”, in an away game, with runners in scoring position, when down by two strikes, in the ninth-inning. Yeah, well, in any statistical list someone has to be at the top. That doesn’t mean the person has really done anything specially relevant to put themselves there.
December 15th, 2006 at 8:43 pm
Well, HvP, for such reasons does the concept of “statistical significance” exist. But still…
Back when I worked at a CSUC (not Phil’s) as a staff consultant, I’d have grad students who would cross-tabulate every variable and look for “statistical significance;” only then would they formulate a hypothesis. It was hard to talk them out of this approach, and I could only hope that their professor would figure out what they were doing and read them the riot act.
In these cases, one has to ask, at minimum, what are the odds of a 95% confidence-interval result occurring given that, say, 12 separate hypotheses had been examined? (The answer: about 46%.)
December 15th, 2006 at 9:20 pm
I’m a Libra and have had exactly one ticket my entire life. Like Phil, it had to do with the fact that I was very young when it happened, not being born in September. But then, astrologers have always said to me, “But your case is special, since you were on the cusp of being a Libra, you were almost a Virgo.” Well, whatever. They can talk all they want, and it doesn’t make any of it true.
Astrology is crap, plain and simple. It’s only good for a laugh on a very, very boring day and nothing more.
December 15th, 2006 at 9:25 pm
idlemind,
I’ve wondered that too. There may also be genetic influences; parents of certain personalities may be amorous during different seasons.
I recall some study that indicated that April is a good month for geniuses to be born, but I do not know if there were controls or statistical significance.
I would like to see the results of a study of personalities of those in New Zealand versus those in the United Kingdom.
December 15th, 2006 at 9:42 pm
Idlemind’s got it bang on: do enough correlations and something’s going to turn up that looks significant. Of course, there’s no guarantee that these folk even looked at whether the difference was statistically significant…
December 15th, 2006 at 9:51 pm
Stories on this from Reuters and Yahoo, e.g.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061213/to468.html?.v=9
claim that “The data was collated by Stanford University professor Keyvan Mohajer”. He’s actually a grad student:
http://www.stanford.edu/~keyvan/
Hmm. Think he’ll publish his data and methodology?
December 16th, 2006 at 1:44 am
People catch more colds and flus during the winter perhaps because they are
more huddled togther. Such behaviors may influnce early perceptions of infants.
Study on personality and birthdate
I would like to see a similar study done in New Zealand. According to astrological “theory” the results would be the same but the kiwis may be 180 degrees–ugh–180 days out of phase with folks far up north. Such results may be easy for the public to interpret an thus dissuade people from going to the astrology section of their newspaper.
December 16th, 2006 at 2:16 am
To add to Tim’s ideas…
All those claims of the influence of birth season negate the fact the planet has multiple latitudes and climates. Have you never traveled out of your home town?
If there were some effect which correlated with season of birth but which merely appeared to be correlated with astrological sign, it would not be hard to test or see in the data. But guess what? It ain’t there.
This is the same rationalization people try to give why more colds occur in winter. Gee, maybe the cold weather has a negative effect on one’s immune system? Sorry, it doesn’t.
You need to look at these hypotheses without first drawing a conclusion. You need to look at the data that has been available for years rather than suggest the hypotheses as if no one ever thought of it before. Been there done that.
There is no correlation with seasons that explains any correlation with astrology because there is no correlation with astrological signs. If you see a claim there are more Libras getting tickets, be skeptical! Look at the stupid data collection and study before buying the conclusion. Chances are real good you won’t find the conclusion supported by the data. And if the conclusion was (Libras get more tickets) then there’s an even more likely chance that data cannot be repeated by other researchers.
Turns out cold weather (short of hypothermia and frostbite) do not weaken your immune system either. You get more colds during the winter for two reasons. People share more air when the weather keeps them indoors in the winter. And some viruses survive longer on surfaces like doorknobs in winter weather conditions.
December 16th, 2006 at 2:25 am
After looking at the source, my skeptic sense says: they want to sell me car insurance and a book. Pretty underwhelming evidence.
They claim to have looked at 100,000 accidents. They claim there is “significant” results. But, the catch: do you see any results? Do you see any peer reviewed published studies?
No, you see a sales pitch. I rest my case. If anyone cares to spend the 12 bucks to check it out, I await your further report.
December 16th, 2006 at 2:48 am
Just as I suspected:
http://money.aol.com/insurance/auto/canvas3/_a/stars-and-cars-the-best-and-worst/20061108133409990002
….
However, despite astrology’s popularity and appeal, it’s rare to see big companies publicly dabbling in the business of the stars. So I was surprised to see the headline of an Allstate advertisement in a September issue of Entertainment Weekly reading, “Virgos have the most accidents. What’s your road sign?†From there, the ad lists the “Official Rankings†of the best drivers by sign. Aries, Cancer, and Taurus are the top three, with Aquarius, Leo, and Virgo at the bottom of the list….
I was surprised to find other studies looking at this same question — although their results were quite contradictory. Nancy Fenn at Tarot.com refers to a study conducted by Suncorp Metway, Ltd., an Australian financial service. Apparently Suncorp reviewed 160,000 accident claims over a three-year period, and found that Gemini were the worst drivers, followed by Taurus and Pisces. Meanwhile, she found, Capricorns are the best drivers, followed by Sagittarians and Scorpios.
The Web site for Norwich Union, a British insurance company, has reprinted an article from June 2005 claiming that “fast and furious Leos reported the highest number of accidental damage claims,†and that, along with Cancers (I have never had a claim, by the way), are “twice as likely to submit claims†as Geminis, Pisces and Sagittarians.
Elizabeth Joyce, a clairvoyant who has appeared on ‘Unsolved Mysteries’ and teaches courses on meditation in Pennsylvania agrees with Allstate’s findings and says that Leos are “speeders who wouldn’t think twice about cutting others off,†and Cancers are “both considerate and defensive.â€
It’s a crock! Of course those who want to swindle or believe can find an excuse to explain the contradictory evidence:
There is an explanation for the differing views on astrological signs and the driving records and tendencies of the twelve groups. Carol Allen, one of the most respected astrologers in the country and the astrologer of choice to Hollywood’s movers and shakers, explains that in astrology, the month of your birth may be less important than the position of the planets at a given time.
“In astrology, there is actually a planet that represents vehicles and a planet that represents accidents,†she says. “When the planet of vehicles is with the planet of accidents, no matter what the person’s sign — they will have accidents!†Still, she asserts, “There are definitely driving tendencies and personality patterns of each astrological sign that sits behind the wheel.â€
What does the evidence matter anyway? I smell a sales pitch, plain and simple. And you know what bothers me the most? These guys know blatant lies claiming to have looked at 100,000 claims or whatever don’t matter. You can lie with impunity in a sales campaign. Hey they other guys do it, so why not? There are absolutely no consequences for making a claim such as this up. None!
Next time you read some claim such as this I hope your first response is, probably just a bold faced lie. It’s hard to say that. We don’t want to believe that. There must just be a data fluke. Could it really be totally made up out of thin air?
I have one reply, Kevin Trudeau, aka “The Cures [i]They[/i] Don’t Want You To Know About.”
December 16th, 2006 at 2:51 am
There I go again with the typos. They
So I might as well test the strike code scam while I’m at it.
December 16th, 2006 at 2:52 am
Strike code didn’t work in case you’re wondering what I meant there. [s]code[/s]
December 16th, 2006 at 2:53 am
Great! did it again [s]scam[/s] Try and figure this mess out and you win.
December 16th, 2006 at 6:19 am
“Indeed OptimusShr. People tend to start driving on or near their birthdays. The BA might not get snow down their in CA (or whereever), but here in Sept-Oct we normally have snow, and icy conditions. Even experienced drivers sometimes crash during the first few days of snow/ice as they relearn the ropes. For an inexperienced driver? Instant Fenderbender (or death:P).”
Indeed I am a Libra (Early October) and I had to deal with icy conditions here in MA. Fortunately I did not and still have not had a single accident.
December 16th, 2006 at 11:46 am
Great, that’s the last thing I need — Insurance companies to jump all over these bogus claims and determine that Libras (such as myself) require a higher rate of coverage.
Doesn’t it make you want to purchase a giant Hummer and drive it through the offices of whatever moron decides that these “studies” deserve to be considered news?
The truth is, it must be an extremely slow news day, with events that are deemed non-news worthy left behind. Let’s see, there’s a never ending war, an attack on the sciences, Congress escaping without having faced any tribunals or direct wrath from the public, people living homeless on the streets in our own country, while our tax money goes to support the interest on the national debt, and of course, global warming disrupting the climate, and yet, the news on the headlines is how your birthdate effects your driving habits. Of course, there’s a huge appeal for this kind of article, because there’s a wealth of morons to feed it to. It remins me of walking through the checkout lanes in grocery stores, and never finding science related magazines. It’s always People, or Us, or whatever the hell they have, but where are the Discovers? The Scientific Americans? National Geographics? They’re always in the back of the store at the magazine station. Well, this is the kind of public the educational system here has produced. Gotta fight this stupidity, and I’m glad people like BA are around to really shoot these bastards where it hurts (the brain).
December 16th, 2006 at 12:51 pm
Well, guess I’m not your “typical” Libran, as I’ve had my fair share of speeding tickets in my life, though none in the last decade or so. At a driving class for speeders I had to take to discharge one of my speeding tickets(in 1988), the instructer asked how many of us had been involved in accidents. I was the only one who had NOT been so afflicted. He said then, “Well, You are what we refer to as a “skillful” driver, rather than a “safe” one,,,”
April as a birth month for “genius”? I have three children, born as Sagitarius, Capricorn and Leo. All three easily qualify for Mensa. Is that what is meant by “genius”? I think it really had more to do with their mother having an IQ above 165. Even with regression to the mean(mine is “only” 142) they are still well into the “gifted” range. Guess I just “chose” the right mother for them(who is, by the way, a Gemini) ,,,
So much for the accuracy of astrology,,,
Go genetics,,,
Gary 7
PS, My ex had one child by a previous relationship. That female is also well into the gifted range, IQ above 145. as are her two children,,,and that’s another one for the gene pool,,,
PPS, A friend from India told me that the caste system in India was really all about breeding for specific traits, as in the greatest Sitar players are all from the Khan caste. They’ve been at this for nearly 2.5 millenia. Maybe they have a clue,,,?
December 16th, 2006 at 6:16 pm
All I know is “Your Karma Ran Over My Dogma” is the best title ever.
December 17th, 2006 at 7:33 am
[...] “Your Karma ran over my dogma“, no Bad Astronomy. Até que ponto chega a crença na Astrologia?; [...]
December 20th, 2006 at 4:33 am
Same problem different example
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn1127
December 21st, 2006 at 4:44 am
As a piscean, should I only have car accidents underwater?