Please read this all the way through. I’ve got my wind up here, and want you all to listen.
Anyone who reads this blog knows my feeling that critical thinking is one of the most important aspects of humanity that we possess. Our ability to discern truth from fallacy is more than important. It’s literally critical.
I also understand that my fighting antiscience in the rather narrow field of astronomy isn’t apt to save lives. But I do know with 100% certainty that bad thinking elsewhere can certainly take them. And in too many cases, it’s our innocents who pay the price of our simple inability to think.
Bad thinking kills when it comes to health. The reasons are legion, but one stands out in particular: the anti-vaccination crowd.
You may not be aware that there is an organized effort to undermine the influenza vaccination program (also for many other diseases as well). People place all sorts of blame on it, including (and probably most vociferously) how they think the MMR shot causes autism. There is no evidence to support this claim other than anecdotes and our very strong urge to link something that happens to something that came before (post hoc ergo propter hoc is the Latin for this logical fallacy). Just because a child gets a shot and then develops autism does not mean that the autism was caused by the shot.
Many of these folks claim that the national vaccination program is a conspiracy to somehow keep the population under control. They use the same faulty evidence, bad thinking, and misleading methods that the Moon Hoax purveyors, the Mars Facers, the UFO proponents, and cosmic doomcriers use. They may very well be honest people who are just seriously misguided, but when it comes to vaccination we all suffer under their skewed view: if enough people don’t get vaccinated, a disease can still run rampant. You need a minimum number of vaccinated people so that herd immunity can take place, where enough people can slow or even stop the spread of the disease.
If these people prevail, we are all at risk. If you’re under the age of, say, 40 do you personally remember anyone getting smallpox, or polio?
No? Guess why.
That’ll all end if the antivax people have their way. They must be stopped, and being vocal about critical thinking is the only way to do it. The blog ERV has been fighting this fight — this incredibly important fight — for a while now, and has some actual good news on that front: celebrities are coming out and speaking their minds about the antivax crowd. Like it or not, famous faces get attention, and in this case it’s Jennifer Garner and Dean Cain. Both have been vocal about getting flu shots this season, and both seem to be saying it for the right reasons, too. You can tell by their words: it’s not lip service. They mean it.
And when it comes to the important stuff, the really important stuff, I’ll take all the help I can get to make sure the word gets out.
As for me: I haven’t had my flu shot this season. I’m going to take care of that as soon as I can.
Who’s with me?
January 4th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Phil, I have to commend you for your use of one of my favorite Latin idioms: the illustrious “post hoc ergo propter hoc” — almost as sweet as “sic transit gloria mundi.”
I’m with ya! (but not getting a flu shot this season)
January 4th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Sorry, BA, I’m not with you. But only because I got my flu shot months ago.
Vaccinations are a critical component of public health. There’s no vast, dark conspiracy behind them, and the folks who believe that the MMR vaccine causes autism are falling for emotional hype over evidence. After all, they know what they believe. Anyone who argues otherwise is clearly either blind or part of the conspiracy.
January 4th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Keep up the good work. This irrational thinking permeates every area of society. I’m not sure why people have this need to believe in these conspiracies. Maybe it is something that can provide answers to the way the world seems to be so out of control sometimes. People will grasp at whatever straws they can to make sense out of things that make no sense.
January 4th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Got my flu shot in October — I was thinking of this more as a waste of an hour of my work day, so thank you for the reminder that these are important (in more ways than one)
January 4th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
I already got my flu shot even though I really wasn’t supposed to. It was a bit of a botch up in the doc’s office, but it did little harm in that it only made me ill for about four to six hours.
Still beats getting the real full-blown version.
January 4th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Way, way ahead of you , BA. Got mine in October. My department offers to pick up the tab to get ‘em.
January 4th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
I’ve seen the presentations. I’m very nearly required by law to get one. I know how it works, why it works, and why it’s important. I’ve had mine. And yet…
I think the flu shot is crap. The formulation is a guess – sometimes they’re right, sometimes they’re not and it offers very little protection against what’s actually out there.
Every year I’ve gotten the flu shot, I’ve gotten the flu. Not right away – I realize it’s not the shot – but clearly something didn’t work. Every year I haven’t gotten one, I’ve been fine.
I’m not in a high-risk group though, and I imagine it is different for them and wholly support flu shots for young, immuno-compromised and elderly. But for someone like me – it’s anecdotal, but it hasn’t once worked right for me.
The flu shot is a woo shot. It’s way overhyped. I don’t think it works that well. But that’s just my opinion.
January 4th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
I haven’t had a flu shot in 30 years. Haven’t had the flu in that time either. ‘Course, that’s just me. I certainly would never advocate against people getting one.
January 4th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
My daughter and I have both gotten our flu shots, and my daughter has received her third and final HPV shot, the fundamentalists be damned!
January 4th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
I’m one of the few people I know my age who’s vaccinated for small pox (my family moved to Guam in the late ’70’s). And I take great pride in the fact that I’m also vaccinated for typhus.
Ok, who knows if they’re still good 25+ years later, but I still feel better off.
January 4th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
The company I work for brings in nurses to administer flu shots every year, and most people here get them. You identify your HMO, fill out a little form that the company sends in, and you’re done. It costs the company nothing extra, and they have a lower absentee rate.
Keep up the good work fighting the forces of stupidity and superstition.
January 4th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
I haven’t had my flu shot too, because I believe in Darwinism!!1!
Ahem.
No, to tell the truth: I was too lazy at the start of the flu season, then forgot it some times. Just wish me some luck.
All things considered i’m with the BA.
January 4th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
i’m with you. the only widespread problem with vaccines is that it can be a pain in the butt to get documentation for schools that you or your children have been vaccinated.
January 4th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Now that I can actually get one that isn’t preserved with thimerosal I got my flu shot. I am actually allergic to thimerosal, so it’s been way too long since I’ve had even a tetnus shot, much less a flu shot. But I tell you what, the anti-vaccination crowd scares the heck out of me. They don’t have – nor do they seem to be interested in – the facts. Willful ignorance is dangerous.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
Got mine about a month and a half ago; my college, thankfully, provides it free.
I’d gotten the flu every year, like clockwork, and it laid me out for about a week each time for at least four years running before I started getting the vaccine annually; since then, I haven’t had the flu, period.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
i got my flu shot and i’ve been sick ever since
go phil!
January 4th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
I am generally all for vaccinations (I am indeed old enough—barely—to remember polio scares). But flu shots? I dunno, there are so many strains, it seems kinda futile; every year I tried it, I got the flu anyway (I also did many of the years I didn’t get the shot, I hasten to add).
With the flu, I seem to do better when I just remember to wash my hands a lot.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
I am with you too BA, though I haven’t had my flu shot, and likely won’t this year. There has been a break out of Mumps here in Alberta, and I am in the age range that needs vaccination. Even though university students are at the most risk I still wanted to get the vaccine. I didn’t get the chance though since there was wide spread allergic reaction to it. Please cross your fingers for me…….I really don’t need the Mumps.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
I don’t know how it is in the US, but here Flu Shots are only recommended for people with weakened immune systems. Probably because there aren’t even close to enough companies that manufacture flu vaccines for every person everywhere to get one. You can still get one if you want even if you are a healthy adult, but if everyone tried there would be shortages.
cephyn: Vaccines aren’t guaranteed to work for everyone. If you read the fine print you will see that they have a %chance of failure for any given individual. Some people respond better than others obviously, depending on how their immune system is put together. The idea of Vaccines isn’t so much to protect individuals (although that is a nice side effect in many cases) as it is to protect society as a whole.
As Fill Plate (I’m spelling his name like that until the spam filter stops flagging every one of my posts) says vaccines provide a buffer. If enough people get them and respond to them, then a pathogen won’t manage to reach the critical mass of infected people necessary to begin an exponential spread. As long as that spread pattern is stopped before it starts epidemics and pandemics never happen.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
It’s funny. I have never had a flu shot as an adult, and never had a flu that was bad enough to keep me home from work. But I have seen what a serious flu can do to children and the elderly, so I would never advise against getting one without a darn good reason.
That said, I am 110% behind you as far as general immunization goes. I had a great uncle that was a polio victim as a child. He could still walk, but his legs were obviously less useful than they could have been.
My grandparents on both sides let me know how grateful we should be today. They started out as poor farmers in Texas and Oklahoma, and I got to hear first-hand accounts of sickness and death caused by yellow fever, rubella, and typhus. Working as a rancher out in the brush used to carry a significant risk of typhus infection, and I don’t imagine that the quality of medical care in 1930’s rural Texas was all that great. Fun stuff.
Because of these advances, the only loved one I’ve ever lost to an easily preventable disease was a puppy. When I was about 10 or 11, my parents bought a beautiful Golden retriever puppy named Max. Either the pet store kept faulty records or messed up the vaccination, and at five months Max was infected with Parvovirus.
I wish I had recorded the ordeal on video, so that I could show anti-vax fools the error of their ways with a vivid demonstration. If you are so sure that vaccinations are bad, why don’t you sit down and watch this video of a cute, innocent puppy vomiting, pooping, and yelping itself to death. Watch how he becomes weak and listless, refusing to eat or drink water. Watch while the diarrhea gets so bad it turns bloody. Watch my sister and I cry as my parents take little Max to get put down once it becomes clear he’s not going to make it.
Now go look at your kids.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Ps. The only reason I’m not getting a flu shot is because most of my family has bad reactions to it and I’m not particularly at risk. (plus I’m on a 3 year roll for not having the flu….Go Team Jamie’s Immunity!!!)
January 4th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
I’m with you, BA! I got my flu shot at the beginning of December. I’ve gotten a flu shot every year, and I’ve never had the flu OR autism. Take that, Jenny McCarthy! LOL!
January 4th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
I got my flu shot just in time at the beginning of winter, and was lucky enough to avoid the nasty, nasty virus that many other people got. My experience has been that it works, but we have the advantage in Australia that the flu tends to start in the northern hemisphere and get very well tracked before it arrives here for our winter, so I expect the flu shot here is always more reliable.
Our nearly-3-year-old daughter and new son haven’t had any shots, but that’s because we’re delaying them, not avoiding them completely. They’re breast fed, which means their immune systems are already well above average, and they don’t go to childcare or spend a huge amount of time with other children. If that changed for any reason, they’d be in like a shot for their shots.
Immunisation bears a small risk. Sure, the MMR=autism link has been pretty soundly debunked, but the thalidomide=deformity one wasn’t, and a lot of respectable medical professionals recommended thalidomide before the bugs were ironed out. We’ve taken advantage of our unique situation to wait and see, with the result that we can take a little less on faith.
As a general rule, our feeling is that individual immunisations for specific diseases are better than bulk ones designed to catch the great unwashed majority all in one go. Biologicsl agents interact in weird ways, and we don’t believe there’s any such thing as too much caution.
However, we also believe we owe the wider community a certain amount of care. If our kids spent more time socialising, we’d adjust our decisions. We’re not uninformed or malicious, but we’re not the average either.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
Thank you Phil!
I absolutely got vaccinated this season as always.
Cephyn, I wonder if you were tested for the flu, or were just ill. The spectrum of diseases the public refers to as “the flu” is quite distinct from that caused by influenza A+B. Hundreds of viruses circulate every winter that are confused with the flu. (All of them are miserable, so I empathize with you either way!)
Furthermore, the vaccine is far from perfect, but to call it a guess is incorrect and misleading.
Finally, we all need to be careful about anecdotes and the logical fallacy of the Lucky Streak. As Phil points out, by vaccinating we are not only protecting ourselves, but the entire community.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
I certainly agree with you regarding the importance of MMR vaccines, but the flu shot seems to be more trouble than it’s worth. Unless it’s going to help me with bird flu, why bother?
January 4th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
I watched “I Am Legend” last night so the image of Virally infected Zombies are still in my head; but even through all the death and carnage of a Viral “Medical Cure” (like the ‘Flu Vaccine), they still had a society in the end.
The ‘Flu Vaccine isn’t likely to turn people into Zombies, so even if the worse happens and 90% of people die of a defective ‘Flu shot, that 10% who survive will be stronger for it.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
First off, let me say that I’ve gotten flu shots every year since a bad case of the flu almost landed me in the hospital about 20 years ago (severe dehydration because of the sweating/chills cycles)–the only exception was a couple of years ago during the shortage. I wasn’t deemed to be in a high risk group.
More importantly: I don’t have any evidence to support this theory, but I think a great deal of this anti-vaccine paranoia is coming from the same home school/intelligent design crowd that is turning its back on science. Their thinking is, hey, when’s the last time anyone had measles around here? Well, duh, it simply doesn’t occur to them that maybe the reason no one has gotten measles lately is because people are vaccinated. Remove that block, and people will start getting sick again.
But that’s okay. If you believe in the Bible, then disease can be cured through prayer.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
Oh, man does this topic get me going. I’m now at the age where a lot of my friends have very young children, and my wife and I are constantly being asked how we “feel” about the vaccination issue.
GRRRRRRR.
I feel like screaming at these people, “WHAT ISSUE, YOU MORON?” Do you like getting polio, the measels, mumps, scarlett fever, and a host of viral nasties? Do want to watch your kids go through horrible sickness? Not to mention the threat of exposure to others when your kid exposes them to the same?
One of the greatest gifts to the world from science is immunization from disease via vaccinations. Everytime this “issue” comes up I have to let my much more tolerant wife handle the response, which she does well.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
Oh, and yes my entire family got flu shots this year. It’s true that they may not immunize you against all strains of the flu, but they’re fairly easy to get in my area and don’t cost much (I think I paid 10 bucks for mine and my wife got hers and our daughter’s while taking our daughter for her 2 year checkup).
Sorry for the double post.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
I am in an at-risk health group so I get mine every year. I don’t want to catch the flu from one of those hardy souls that come in to work because they aren’t “sick enough” to stay home. They may not be sick enough to stay home, but they are likely sick enough to be contagious!
Meanwhile, I’ve never been ill for more than a couple of hours from the shot, and in the last several years, not at all. In fact, for the last two years, I haven’t even had pain at the injection site the next day (apparently a common complaint).
So I’m all for getting the shot – and if you do find yourself ill following getting the shot, you owe it to yourself to find out why – you might be allergic to something you don’t know about.
jbs
January 4th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
I am with you on this, and I have two autistic children. They got all the usual childhood vaccinations. I have no regrets about that.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
I got my flu shot this year for two reasons.
The first, and the lesser reason, is that I’m a grad student with an assistantship and simply can’t afford the time to suffer through and recover from the flu.
The second, and far more important reason, is that my dad has cancer and is going through chemo. I’m able to see him very often (benefit of going to school an hour from him), and I’m terrified of giving the flu to him when his immune system is more vulnerable.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
Good luck getting one this late in the season, Phil. Got mine through my university (the nursing students were practicing — they were so cute being all serious and professional, especially the guys) and my wife got one through the town program as an employee of the town, both in November, but we had to scramble to find one for our daughter in the first week of December. We see anti-vaxers here, too, taking unwitting advantage of the herd immunity effect (moo!).
January 4th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
My whole family got ‘em earlier in the season. We vaccinate our munchkin. The people who start whooping cough epidemics because they don’t want to vaccinate their precious snowflakes are selfish at best. But mostly just irresponsible. Flawed thinking makes people lousy citizens, and I’m glad you are fighting that.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
Well no, LOL, I’m not going to get a flu shot because, shrugs, it’s just the flu. I haven’t caught it in about 15 years and even when I did catch it, it was just the flu.
Now polio and measles and that ilk, yeah, we’re all vaccinated. I smirked about chicken pox and mumps but my kid got the shots for those anyway. I mean, one was just some itchies and the other was a little swollen neck. BFD. I don’t even remember feeling sick when I had the mumps. I was sitting upside down in a chair and singing at the top of my voice, giddy to be out of school for a week.
Homeschoolers are notorious for not vaccinating and frankly, that’s was the straw that broke the camel’s back for me. Even though we homeschool, I avoid all homeschoolers now like the plague. Heh heh, plague. Yeah, everyone who gets vaccinated gets autism. Uh huh. Sure. Morons.
http://whitecoatrants.wordpress.com/2007/11/15/no-vaccine-no-freedom/
A picture says a thousand words.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
As several posters have mentioned already, it’s better the save the flu shots for people with weakened immune system (and medical personnel).
There’s also been a lot of hype about flu medicine. For example, bird flu vaccinations may prove useless if an epidemic breaks.
It is also better to stay at home when infected. I really hate that people go to work sick spreading the disease.
Otherwise, I fully support vaccinations of course. Most vaccination projects have been highly successful.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
[...] Woo shot By The Bad Astronomer I also understand that my fighting antiscience in the rather narrow field of astronomy isn’t apt to save lives. But I do know with 100% certainty that bad thinking elsewhere can certainly take them. And in too many cases, … Bad Astronomy Blog – http://www.badastronomy.com/bablog [...]
January 4th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
Both of my sons have asthma, and when my oldest was first diagnosed with it, the doctor told also that if he ever got the flu, no if’s, and’s, or but’s about it, he was going to the hospital. The flu can be life threatening for anyone, especially to kids with asthma. Since then, they got flu shots every year. There is no excuse not to.
The idea that other people’s ignorance can endanger the lives of their own children and for them to be so flippant about it amazes me. When that same ignorance can endanger the lives of my children, that infuriates me.
Stop being ignorant and get the shot.
January 4th, 2008 at 7:06 pm
I’ve had nearly every vaccine available EXCEPT the flu vaccine(tetanus, typhoid, smallpox, typhus, cholera, polio). It comes with travel to strange and exotic places(like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, circa 1950).
The LAst time our family went to Arabia in 1980, they still required smallpox vacs, sooo,,,we all had the whole shebang.
Never had the mumps, even though I nursed my son, daughter and wife thru it. Must be something in the old timey immune system, like, it were edicated by being raised in a filthy environment, as in horse rance, etc.
I only catch a cold once every couple of years, and a very light case of flu once every 5 to ten years. I am exposed to the public every day in this job at Red Top Mt, so I expect immunity derives from low level exposure. Still, at 64, I guess I should THINK about it(HMMMM, rumination occurring,,,)
,,,and you know if we develop a vaccine for cancer, EVERYONE(especially me) will want one,,,
The only problem with Darwinism is it takes so dad-gummed long to KILL OFF THE WEAK,,,leaving all of us who are SO STRONG to carry on,,,
,,,and anyone here who doesn’t understand I’m being sarcastic,,,should!
We do the best we can to stay ahead of those danged, mutating, evolving bugs. We just have to keep getting smarter, faster,,,those who won’t,,,die,,,
Peace,
GAry 7
January 4th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
smallpox and polio vaccines, yes, I’m with ya
flu shots, meh
Remember how Vioxx turned out to have virtually no effect in lowering cholesterol counts? How the pharm industry made a billion off the scam? I feel that way about the flu shot.
People with certain allergies don’t usually drop dead from the flu, but I do know a guy who came close to death from an anaphylactic reaction from a flu shot. Others experience severe discomfort from the shot. I don’t like the way the odds add up. In certain user groups or if facing a specific epidemic, it’s necessary. But otherwise count me out.
January 4th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
The three times I got the flu shot I got violently ill starting the day after I got the shot. I was told I must be allergic to eggs (I’m not). I was told it was coincidence (possible). I’m not in a high risk group, so I haven’t bothered to get a flu shot the past few years. I can’t afford to throw up for five days after getting the shot. Since I stopped getting the shot, I’ve gotten a bad case of the flu only once… and it only put me down for two days, unlike the shot itself.
I’ve heard the formulation and preservatives of the shot have changed in the last couple of years. Every year I think I’m ready to try again, but every year I remember how sick I got those three times and just decide against it.
January 4th, 2008 at 7:39 pm
I get a flu shot every year. I have to. I had a BMT back in 1992 and it helps keep me alive. Keep at it.
January 4th, 2008 at 7:46 pm
Well written, BA.
Vaccines can cause ill effects, even death, but I’ve made sure all four of my boys have been vaccinated according to schedule just the same. The risks are real, but the risks aren’t as great as what you face without the shots.
Also of note, there exists a meningitis vaccine that isn’t given unless asked for. Make sure your teenagers get this. Meningitis can kill within 48 hours; and even if you survive, the treatment is really painful.
January 4th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
I was VERY allergic to eggs as a lad, so I got MMR immunities the old-fashioned way. yay. I hear there is now a MMR shot that is safe for people with that allergy, but that doesn’t matter for me now.
I’m not so allergic to eggs any more, but there’s still a risk. Egg sensitivity puts me at some risk from many vaccinations. Consequently, with the flu shot, I have to weigh the almost certainty of becoming ill by getting the shot against the risk that I might become more ill with a much, much lower probability if I don’t get the shot. Thus, I’ve never had the shot, and as far as I know, I’ve never had the flu. As I grow older, my opinion on that may change, as the risk from flu increases with age, but for now I feel relatively safe without the flu shot.
I am a big fan of vaccination though, and I cringe when I hear the anti-vaccination voices (like the ones currently railing against Gardasil). I’ve noticed many times that people who oppose vaccinations tend to oppose fluoridated water, despite the clear evidence that it reduces tooth decay.
January 4th, 2008 at 8:00 pm
I believe kids should have vaccinations. The problem with most multi-dose vaccinations and flu shots is that they contain a preservative called Thimerasol. Thimerasol contains large amounts of mercury. There appears to be an increase in autism when the amount of vaccines tripled in the early 1990’s. The number of autism cases has actually dropped in the last few years since thimerasol has been phased out of some of the vaccinations. Thimerasol came into use earlier last century and has never been put through proper testing that I know of.
If possible, ask for single doses of vaccines that don’t contain thimerasol. There’s 2 things I try to stay away from, vaccines with thimerasol and metal dental fillings which also contain mercury and other heavy metals.
Jim
January 4th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Ahh, Hayden, I call… erm… well anyways, you are mistaken. In California, imunizations have had a sharp reduction in the concentration of Thimerasol in vaccines since 1999 and 2000. If you look at the graph of the number of three-year-old autistic clients under the care of the state of california on this page:
http://www.autismstreet.org/weblog/?p=76
…you’ll note a complete lack of the change of direction of this graph three years later (2003/2004, at which point three year olds in the system should have sharply less Thimerasol than three-year-olds prior to that point), indicating that while there may be a vaccine/autism connection, the mercury ain’t it. Indeed, the graph continues its trend upwards, at a rate which I suspect shadows the population growth.
January 4th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
The company I work for brings in a nurse and those who signed up for it, get it for free. I got mine in November. For those who are afraid of needles, geez, don’t be! The needle is SO small that if you just relax and look away, you won’t likely even feel it. If you tense up it’ll hurt more, especially later.
And contrary to what some might say, it doesn’t cause the flu. Or at least, it never has with me.
January 4th, 2008 at 8:26 pm
I got my flu shot. Paid by my work. Well in fact, it was paid by my work insurrances and… well, I forgot to send the paper to ‘em and um… BAH!!! Ok, that means I paid for it but it’s strictly because I have no memory.
Anyway, We had the nurse over. I had everyone around me saying that this shot would give me flu, that it would make me feel awful for a week but guess what? I felt fine. Yes, I felt a bit down for about the rest of the day, but that was a normal side effect. It’s pretty common with shots. And guess what? I didn’t have flu yet! I usually get a big flu by this time of the year. IT’S GREAT! I’M HEALTHY! (Heck, I didn’t even get my usual cold yet. Now I know I can’t escape that one but I’m in no hurry…)
One of my friends said she believed this autism thing… She hadn’t had her daughter vaccined. I believe she had ‘em now but she’s what, 3-4 years old now? I think she said that she believed that vaccines too early could damage the brain because it had mercury or something.
I was a bit deceived that this intelligent friend was flooded with bad info… Then again, she also believes in homeopathy for her pets and acupuncture and hypnotism… Yes, well, she’s still intelligent, she’s my best friend but she’s pretty influencable. Unfortunately, a LOT of people in my field of work are easy to fool. We’re artists – our minds tend to be pretty open to fantasy and woo woo since it’s so imaginative… At least that’s my analysis of the thing.
January 4th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
Jeffersonian – You’ve got your drug recalls mixed up.
Vioxx scandal summary – Vioxx had no effect on cholesterol because it was an NSAID (anti-inflammatory drug), and wasn’t expected to have any effect on cholesterol. Vioxx worked quite well for its intended purpose. (I had a brief course of Vioxx after a knee injury – it allowed me to move within hours). However, the whole class of drugs it was in (COX-2 inhibitors) proved to have serious side-effects after long term use (heart attack and stroke). The manufacturer suppressed or ignored early evidence of the problems, and since Vioxx was being used by large numbers of people on a continuing basis for relief of arthritis, this caused tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.
January 4th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
Jeffersonian: People die from the flu all the time. Many many people each year in fact. And in the developed world, not just in underdeveloped countries. However, most healthy adults are relatively safe and that’s why we get the “no one I know has died from it” bit into our heads. Flu deaths are mainly among young children (especially >2) and old people.
January 4th, 2008 at 10:41 pm
I have never had a flu shot. I am probably in the lowest risk group there is. I never interact with people, and I wash my hands obsessively.
But now that Jennifer Garner has advocated vaccination maybe I will get it this year!
The really sad part is, I’m only half kidding. Stupid human nature!
January 4th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
I work at an elementary school and have heard so many more parents this year asking about opting their kids out of the immunization requirements. Fortunately, we require some pretty strong reasons to opt out, not just because Jenny McCarthy said her kid caught autism from his life-saving vaccine. She infuriates me so much that when I was at the bookstore tonight, I took all 8 copies of her parenting book and hid them scattered through the store at the backs of shelves and the bottom of bargain bins. I do the same for Michael Behe’s books, but that’s a different post.
January 4th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
Perhaps the more effective way to get people to realise the seriousness of this issue would be to legally mandate that every time a person claimed to have “the flu”, and also is able to function normally, i.e., is not vomiting with high fever and disabling pain in the arm and leg bones with possible hallucinations, that person be smacked upside the head and made to write “I do not know what the flu is” twelve thousand times.
January 4th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
My son’s MMR was due when all the confusion was at its height. I decided at the time to give him the separate vaccines because they had no history of problems. (I’m in the UK, so the MMR is free on the NHS, but we had to pay for the separate vaccines.)
The idea of not vaccinating at all did not enter into the equation. I consider that madness.
We knew the evidence against the MMR was shaky at the time, but a few hundred pounds is nothing compared to my son’s life. So we made sure he was properly vaccinated, but avoided the MMR. Now, with the benefit of hindsight, I doubt it was necessary. I don’t regret playing safe though.
As for the flu jab, the NHS gives it free to the elderly and people at risk. I’m an asthmatic, so I’ve had mine.
January 4th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
Phil, I hope you don’t mind that I linked to this entry from the Wrong Planet forums. It is an Autism and Asperger’s online resource community, and I’m rather curious about how they will respond. I have Asperger’s, and have received all of my vaccinations. I don’t believe for a second that they caused my neurological disorder; if that were true, wouldn’t everyone who was immunized have the same problem?
January 5th, 2008 at 12:21 am
I had forgot to mention that in my home state of New Jersey, I believe there is legislation in the works to make vaccines mandatory. Its in the news mainly because of people who are fighting it, which I feel is silly.
January 5th, 2008 at 12:43 am
My mother who was born in 1931 had both strains of Measles. She said her big fear was getting polio. Of course her vaccines are up to date.
As a child (I was born in 1961), I had all the available vaccines, including some of the first oral polio vaccines. I had chicken pox at three and mumps at five, but that was it. I still have my small pox scar, but its a small price to pay to be healthy. I’d say that in the past 20 years I’ve gotten the flu once.
All of my kids are up to date on their immunizations. My two girls (10 and 15) just had their last dose of Gardasil (the HPV vaccine). I get them their flu shots every year, mainly to keep their mother happy.
If you’re looking for some more woo-woos who are trying to link autism with vaccines, look no further than Robert Kennedy Jr.,
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2005/07/01/autism_mercury_and_politics/
January 5th, 2008 at 2:31 am
Thiomersal contains large amounts of mercury in exactly the same way that water contains large amounts of hydrogen. (Except less so — Hg is only one of the 23 atoms present in thiomersal.)
January 5th, 2008 at 3:50 am
Phil;
If someone asks you if the Flu shot is worth while, remind them of the 1919 Pandemic which killed tens of millions and changed Europe forever.
Sadie;
That profanity was un-called for and offensive. No-one else seemed interested in commenting on it but I will say this to you; use of such language is crude, unbecoming, and unlikely to get one invited to my house for dinner. By the way, I’m a sailor (USN, 27 years) and don’t talk like that. What is your excuse?
January 5th, 2008 at 7:56 am
I have Crohn’s Disease, so I get my flu shots free, and since I’ve been getting them, I have never once got the flu. I used to get it regularly and be miserable for days at a time.
But that’s anecdotal evidence. The people above who say “I got it and got sick,” and the ones (like me) who say, “I got it and never got sick,” can’t extrapolate to everybody from their own personal experience. You need either a well-controlled statistical study or a double-blind experiment to draw a conclusion about whether flu shots are good or bad. I believe the results are in and that flu shots are a good idea, but keep in mind that they are a good idea on average. Some people who get them will suffer bad side effects, but the vast majority will be helped rather than hurt. It’s a crap shoot in the sense that wearing a seat belt is a crap shoot — yes, you might be the one in a million who is kept in the car too long by a seat belt you can’t unbuckle, but you’re much more likely to be one of the 999,999 whose life is saved.
For the people blaming this on “fundamentalists” or “prayer” — will you kindly keep your religious prejudices to yourselves? There’s no indication that the anti-vaccination crowd is any more “fundamentalist” than you are. They probably think they’re on the side of science. And I, for one, do pray for sick people to recover. That doesn’t mean I think they shouldn’t get medical treatment. The dichotomy you attempt to draw between treating disease and praying for the diseased is a fallacy of bifurcation; there’s no reason you can’t do both.
January 5th, 2008 at 8:04 am
I agree when it comes to things like rubella, polio, smallpox, whooping cough, tetanus, etc. – the sort of immunization one gives children and travellers.
When it comes to the flu shot, I don’t agree. Why? Because, like a lot of people, I am not in the risk group. I am a healthy adult in her 40’s who has never had the flu.
Instead, I choose to make sure I wash my hands and not cough or sneeze on people or out into a room. I wish everybody else would take these precautions, too.
January 5th, 2008 at 8:37 am
I get them if I get around to it and they seem to have correlated well with the years I got by without flu. That said, one persons experience is such a crazy small sample that it doesn’t mean a whole hell of a lot – one would have to look at a more carefully selected larger sample and run the stats. Conveniently, those kwayze weesewchwer do that for you (and double check each others results massively) and determine how effective it is or isn’t. Fortunatly it works quite well. If people feel like double checking, that’s great and all, but a bit pointless if done in a miniscule sample and without at least pen and paper (as opposed to keeping it in ones over patternseeking brain) involved. I didn’t end up getting one this year, there was some sort of delivery problem making supplies a bit short (not overall, just at the time and briefly) so I opted to wait, not being in a risk group and a pretty healthy guy whose odds of having anything more then a rotten experience from getting the flu I figured I’d voulentarilly forfeit to those more in need (it was not severe or long term enough to warrant restricting it, they just kind of encouraged those in low-risk-high-health to hold off a week or so if they could). By the time the shortage had passed, I’d forgotten about it and now it’s heading so late into it I probably won’t.
January 5th, 2008 at 8:48 am
I agree with all but the flu shot. I also think it is a guess vaccine and not really an important one for me. For the very young, or old sure. If I get the flu it is very unlikely it will kill me. But enough was said about that in other comments.
The AV crowd is rampent where I live. West Sonoma County has lots of aura reading, holistic healing, look how natural and great I am types. I know several families that don’t vaccinate and their reasoning also includes the idea that if everyone else vaccinates they don’t have to. This works with the herd immunity effect you mentioned but when you run with a herd that all agrees with you, you have more unvaccinated then vacinated and it does not work.
My wife went to her doctor and got a checkup last month. Her doctor gave her a whooping cough shot. Why? Because it is back. This was gone along with polio and others. Now it has been reported by several people in the area. WTF! The doctor is vaccinating anyone willing just to bring the herd back up to immunized levels.
It is a sad state when falicy and prayer rules the day.
January 5th, 2008 at 8:55 am
“Many of these folks claim that the national vaccination program is a conspiracy to somehow keep the population under control. They use the same faulty evidence, bad thinking, and misleading methods that the Moon Hoax purveyors, the Mars Facers …”
The MMR scare is without doubt a bad use of statistics. But it should be noted that the MMR scare was started by DOCTORS, one of whom recanted. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=%2Fnews%2F2003%2F10%2F31%2Fnmmr31.xml
Ironically, the same logic used to fallaciously link a vaccine to a condition is also identical to the logic used to link any X to some condition Y. You often see screaming headlines to the effect: “X causes a 4 times increase in Y cancer!” despite that fact that the source said: “X is ASSOCIATED with a 4 times increase in Y cancer” implying that the risk of getting Y cancer rises from infinitesimal to 4 times infinitesimal. This finding is often followed by confirming research (all statistical of course) applying dubious statistical methodology — none of which actually address the CAUSE issue.
Strictly speaking, there is no such thing as “faulty evidence” and the term should never be used (Phil, you should know better!). Notable exceptions: inaccurate measurement, evidence guaranteed to be biased (a type of inaccurate measurement, I suppose) and manufactured evidence. There is such a thing as “faulty conclusions based upon the evidence” and “evidence incorrectly applied.” Hardly a complete list of sins committed with evidence, though.
Manufactured evidence is outright fraud. This is fortunately very rare. What still raises the eyebrows, though, are the studies which blatantly ignore the underlying assumptions of the applied methodologies or play fast and loose with the presentation of the evidence or results. (My own pet peeve is the Thompson/MBH99 graphic used by Al Gore in AIT but that’s another story and it isn’t a scientific exposition anyway.)
It was mentioned not too long ago that statistical analysis is just plain bo-oring. Well, maybe so but if you don’t understand it then you will forever be a potential sucker for those making making claims based upon dubious methodology.
January 5th, 2008 at 10:27 am
Barton, I do not know the situation in the US that well, but in the Netherlands it is well-known that the rejection of vaccination is pretty much restricted to certain Christian fundamentalist groups.
January 5th, 2008 at 10:29 am
I can’t understand all this fuss over the flu. Is being sick for a couple days really that serious a problem? With all the other medical issues facing us, I’m sure the resources being devoted to distributing the flu vaccine could be put to better use somewhere else. For those at risk of real harm (the elderly for example), a flu shot may be useful. But the rest of you people, suck it up!
Maybe they should develop a wimp vaccine.
January 5th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Couldn’t agree more.
There’s a lot to be said about checking for one’s self. You needn’t actually run the analysis to spot errors but you almost always have to look beyond the media report to the source paper.
There was one project that studied the appearance of some symptom in 150 persons but the abstract stated (perhaps tongue-in-cheek) it was a study of the entire population of the city implying more breadth than actual. Guess which part was quoted prominently in the newspapers.
Another paper (coming out of NIH), had to lower the significance level from the more or less standard of 95% to 80% to achieve positive results.
Double checking isn’t done as much as one would think unfortunately. For one, in a statistical study there is almost never a repeat of the experiment (if you can call it an experiment) like it would be for say, cold fusion — it’s just a rehash of the analysis. As such, there’s not much glory in a me-too result. Secondly, it’s hard to get funding for a duplicate analysis. Thirdly, the vetting process is mostly done in the letters section (”Yeah, the paper had errors. Didn’t you see those letters published only 14 months later?”). To keep up requires constant vigilance.
Be especially wary of results quoted in newspapers, particularly if the results have yet to be published elsewhere or have just been recently published. 1) the research hasn’t had a chance to be vetted (assuming it will ever be) and 2) newspapers rarely scour the literature for news; many stories in the press are releases made by the researchers or their organization often for publicity purposes.
Also, be wary of second-level analyses (the so-called “data mining” papers) where an analysis is done using previous analyses. Try to remember that a 95% significance level allows for false positives 5% of the time. IOW: out of 100 papers, you are likely to find 5 positive results simply by chance. But that’s assuming that positive and negative results have an equal chance of appearing in the literature. Restriction of publication space and the ever present search for glory (”this is my ticket to the Nobel”) conspire against that. Not to mention little things like the low probability of finding significant results in the first place in some fields. In epidemiology, for example, the really blatant things are already known which means there is an inherent diminishing return. No one wants to hear, “X isn’t (*ho-hum*) associated with Y,” but, just the same, those researchers need to put food on the table. Why do you think they must rely on statistics to begin with?
January 5th, 2008 at 11:06 am
When you say that the flu shot given is a guess, you need to realize that the guess is based on statistical analysis of occurrances of the disease. So yeah, they are guess, but it’s a darn good guess. Remember, each time you do come in contact with someone, you essentially are in contact by proxy with everyone that person contacted. Unless you and the handful of people you do deal with do not come into contact with anyone else, ever, you should consider yourself exposed.
Also to be noted, there are many strains of the flu, some more dangerous than the others. The shot you get is supposed provide protection from the worst of expected strains. If you do get sick with the flu after you got the shot, you either are one of those the shot is less effective for, or you got a different, likely less virulent strain – or both.
The shot isn’t guaranteed to prevent you from getting sick – it’s supposed to prevent the flu from becoming a pandemic when enough people for whom it is effective receive it. There is a point where the coverage is sufficient to provide that herd immunity and any further coverage has a deminishing return – but that doesn’t mean more coverage makes things worse, just not so much better.
Finally, there are some folks sensitive to the shot for various reasons, such as allergy to eggs. That said, if you’ve never had the shot (and thus don’t know if you are sensitive) and aren’t allergic to eggs, you should consider getting the shot – if only the at-risk people take the shot there won’t be enough people protected to provide the herd immunity! The government does prefer that at least all the at risk people are covered, of course.
jbs
(this spam filter thing is a pain, too)
January 5th, 2008 at 11:54 am
I’m not running out to get my flu vaccine. I’m at no serious risk from the flu. My risks from the vaccine are probably more meaningful. All in all, I think it’s better to leave the shot for someone who needs it.
Seriously, is there any good rationale behind annual vaccination of healthy adults against a relatively small subset of likely strains of what is actually usually a fairly innocuous virus?
The only thing that ever nearly killed me was my own immune system, an equally likely result of vaccination and the old-fashioned kind of immunization.
January 5th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
Here’s an estimate of the number of flu-related deaths per year in the U.S. (perhaps over-stated): http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/Media/pressrel/r030107.htm
The answer really depends upon how you yourself view things.
Some people go catatonic over anyone dying from anything no matter how remote. Every vaccine carries a risk. The number of cases of polio has gone up every time the vaccine is initially introduced. Initially, in the U.S. and again later in South America. The net result however has been an overall reduction of the disease to the point you are unlikely to have ever known anyone who had it who isn’t also old enough to have been around before the vaccine was available.
There are plenty of people who are convinced they know better and are prone to forcing things down throats “for their own good” so to speak.
I can understand the first view but in the long run it’s silly. The same people will drive to work, cross the street, etc. despite the finite chance of dying as a result. Human nature, though, I guess.
I have a philosophical problem with the “enforcer” and “for your own good” mentality. Plain arrogance in my view.
The vaccine really has a chance of reducing the number of influenza cases if a lot of people get one but if the thought of the vaccine petrifies you, don’t bother getting one.
January 5th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Rhinovirus, or the common cold, is a fairly innocuous virus. A lot of times a person thinks that they have the flu, they actually have a bad cold.
This is just an anecdote, so nobody has to pay it much mind. I didn’t get my flu shot the year that there had been a contamination in a major distributor’s batch. I’m pretty sure I got the flu that year. I was out of commission for two weeks, not a few days. Two weeks of vivid dreams, severe body aches, and going between feeling like I was freezing or on fire. I’m sure that the only reason I didn’t have to go to the hospital was that I was in my 20s and it wasn’t that bad of a flu. I could go into more detail, but it gets pretty gross.
I don’t think I’m a wimp for not wanting to go through that again. I get a flu shot every year now.
January 5th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Daniel
…look how natural and great I am types…
Yeah, those make me laugh as well.
It’s so natural … just like curare, botulin, snake venom, and the sodding big rock that I’m going to use to clobber the next idiot that equates “natural” with “safe”.
January 5th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Ok, here’s my final post in this thread. I went to the CDC web site and looked at their discussion on Influenza. They estimate that an average of 200,000 people are hospitalized and 36,000 people around the world die each year from influenza and related complications. Between 5 and 20 percent of the population gets the flu.
The CDC page I got the information from is: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/keyfacts.htm
They have a list of who should and who should not get the vaccine.
Check out the page, but in summary:
1) If you are at risk, or live with someone at risk you should get the shot (assuming you don’t meet the profile of someone who should not get them – allergic to eggs, etc). The folks at risk are: Young children (6 to 60 months), Women who are pregnant, people over 50 years of age, people of any age with certain chronic conditions (heart disease, lung disfunction, diabetes, etc), and people who live in long term care facilities (like nursing homes).
2) Others that should get the shot include folks that live with people in the at risk group, health care workers, and people with household contact and out of home caregivers (child care, babysitters, etc) of very young children who cannot receive the shot (such as those less than 6 months old or allergic to eggs…).
3) They also add that people who otherwise want to reduce their risk of getting influenza should get the shot, even if they are not in the previous two groups.
Of course the list of people who should not get the shot, even if they are in one of the previous two groups, include children under 6 months, people allergic to eggs, people already ill with a fever (moderate or severe), anyone that has had a severe reaction to the shot in the past, and people that developed GBS (Guillain-Barré syndrome) shortly after receiving a shot in the past.
On that same page are these two important notes:
“Most healthy adults may be able to infect others beginning 1 day before symptoms develop and up to 5 days after becoming sick.”
“About two weeks after vaccination, antibodies develop that protect against influenza virus infection. Flu vaccines will not protect against flu-like illnesses caused by non-influenza viruses.”
The shot is a dead version of the bug. It can not give you the flu (though you can have adverse reactions to the shot anyway). Basically, according to the advice on the CDC site, everyone in my house should get the shot (since I’m in the at risk group and no one here is in the Do Not Get group).
Consider carefully if you fit in either of the first two groups (and not the Do Not Get group). Your getting the shot may prevent someone you know from getting the flu.
jbs
January 5th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Last flu season (’06) I asked my Dr about getting the flu shot, but he told me not to, since I wasn’t in the at risk group. So I didn’t even bother this time round. I’ve been lucky the last few years, but, armed with all this info, I’ll have a more in-depth conversation with him next month.
Thanks, Phil.
January 5th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
This is a bit off-topic but just today this was posted about the litigation over Vioxx . It contains an interesting exchange between a plaintiff and the blogger. It also has a comment from the plaintiff counsel. It shows the mindset in this country (to be honest, in others as well) that rewards those who wish to twist science to their own ends. The courtroom is a very bad place to be deciding science.
BTW: Merck did NOT withhold material evidence from the FDA. The blogger has his own reasoning for this. Rofecoxib was pulled because a study showed an increase in heart attacks (er, “Confirmed Thrombotic Cardiovascular Experience”) after a minimum 18 month dosage regimen. With regimens less than 18 months, there was no discernible distinction between rofecoxib and a placebo. Yet a Texas jury awarded $32M to the estate of a man who had taken Vioxx for only one month.
January 5th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Oops. Left off the important link
January 5th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
When I was teaching (in a public high school), during the winter I used to get at least two colds a season. Schools are a breeding ground for cold viruses, flu and other nasty stuff. We even had the occasional outbreak of head lice, although infrequently and not within the entire student population. The colds were mostly the direct result of parents who sent their kids to school sick. The other stuff was the result of parents who didn’t know any better. The problems were usually caught by the school nurse through referrals from a teacher.
Years ago there was a school nurse on staff (along with hearing specialists and speech therapists) and nurses were available to most of the schools in the district until Prop. 13 began to affect budgets – then their presence became part time, then some schools had to forgo regular visits and make do with monthly or on-a-need basis. Our school wound up with a part-time person who was able to dispense aspirin and bandage minor wounds; everything more serious required a trip to the emergency hospital.
The loss of the full-time on-campus nurse was a real hardship to some kids and parents who were often unable to get to the clinic operated by the county health department. Were it not for the mandatory vaccination policy in the state, many of the kids would be at serious risk. As teachers, we were required to maintain TB tests on a regular basis, and when the flu vaccine became available, we were offered it, first gratis and then at a nominal fee, by the district. I retired before shots became more widely available, though. California offers low cost immunizations for many diseases, including flu, through the Public Health Departments and in some rural counties the schools are often the places where vaccines are dispensed. I never got the flu from the vaccine, in fact I rarely got the flu. Since I’ve retired (six years, now) I have had two winter colds, nothing else. I did not get a flu shot this year, however; my wife did.
I agree with Dr. Plait: we need to educate more widely on the efficacy of vaccinations; and we don’t seem to do such education well in schools any more – at least in Calif.
January 5th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Barton, what was the point of bringing up religion in your post? I haven’t seen anyone blame fundamentalists for this. It seems to me that you feel very threatened by people that have an informed opinion that differs from yours. In my days as a practicing Christian, I prayed for hundreds of sick people. Guess how many were miraculously healed, or got well faster than those who took medication or healed faster than what one would normally expect? Z.E.R.O! NONE! NADA! You are a Christian. We get it. Please don’t look down on those that do not wish to practice your faith.
January 5th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
When it was time for my son to get vaccinated, we asked the doctor about the whole autism scare. He said there was no scientific evidence for it at all. And that was good enough for us.
January 5th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
My 16 year old daughter is autistic. Her symptoms began to appear soon after a ‘required’ immunization at 2½ years old. To think there is no possible connection is ridiculous. Fact is no one has any idea, but you can’t rule out immunizations as the cause just yet.
In 1980, one of every 10,000 children was diagnosed as autistic. Now it is one in every 160. This is becoming an epidemic, and should now be a priority to find the cause/cure.
No thanks, I’ll pass on the flu shot.
January 5th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
I don’t get a flu shot every year because even tho I’ve only had the Flu once in the last 20 or more years, I have to have an excuse to take time off work
)
Just plug yer nose with kleenex, scream into a pillow for about 10 minutes, then call the boss…works every time hehehe
January 5th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
Hydro,
There’s a world of difference between “Diagnosed with” and actually having a problem. My older boy was “Diagnosed with ADD”. Which, as it happens, is a total crock.
When I started seing those numbers on TV, I asked the nearest medical professional I trust. Apparently
A) large numbers of those diagnosed never develop the syndrome. Various reasons are given as ‘bad testing’, ‘just a phase’, and other vague ways of saying “we don’t know why”.
B) the standards for diagnosing the syndrome have changed in the past years. If I arbitarily deteremine the dandelion to be a garden flower instead of a salad, the number of gardens in a given community is going to skyrocket.
As it happens, I don’t normally get the flu vaccine (but I most certainly have had the polio, scarlett fever, etc vaccines.) I’ve not noticed a difference either way – whether I get the shot or not .. I’ve never had the flu. I’ve had some nasty colds, and pneumonia and other respiratory ailments.. but never the flu. These days, at the first hint of that “something’s wrong” feeling, I jump on the Zicam/Cold Eze/etc. It works.
Does that stop me from getting my kids vaccinated (I utterly despise those who say ‘immunized’ – they’re wrong)?Ha! If I step on a rusty nail, I ask the doc to check if my tetanus vaccine is still valid (most recent shot: September 5, 2005. New Orleans.
I really don’t wish to make light of your situation. Autism is not fun for anybody (yes, I have experience – a friend has a son who – among other problems, is severely autistic. He’s a wonderful child, but will never ever be able to even come close to living on his own.). But in all honesty, it is far more likely that your daughter’s autism was triggered by something else in her environment.. say, someting so innocent as a change in the soap your family uses, or buying a different brand of milk.
The human body is remarkably robust, even at that age. Single small events are typically conscripted and overwhelmed by the rest of the body. Significant damage to any system generally requires prolonged exposure to an irritant.
Of course, I don’t think anybody knows the cause of Autism at this point, but if it can be traced to a single environmental event, I’ll shave my beard and eat it for breakfast. Then I’ll get down on my knees and offer you a most profuse apology.
January 5th, 2008 at 11:31 pm
Here’s another anecdote:
For ten years straight, my mother got the flu shot and at some time during the season, had to go to hospital because of a flu. I have never had a flu shot in my 41 years and I have never had a (serious) flu. I convinced my mother to forgo her shot one year and she didn’t get sick. She has forgone the shot for three years now and has not been ill with flu.
I know this really proves nothing and merely counters the anecdotes of earlier posters. I’m certainly not against anyone getting the vax who wants one, but I am against it being legally mandatory. I think it would be very difficult to prove empirically that the shots work. If you get sick after the shot, who’s to say you wouldn’t have become sick without it? If you didn’t get sick without it, who’s to say you would have with it? Is there a good way to prove the flu vaccination’s efficacy other than just pointing to the success of the polio vaccine?
[b]Inertially Guided[/b]:
I’m sure sadie’s post will be edited just as soon as BA reads it. She must be new here.
January 6th, 2008 at 12:54 am
I got the smallpox vaccine through a study to see if they could manufacture it without cows, just in case. That was 3 or 4 years ago and I have yet to get smallpox! Plus I’m apparently immune to certain (probably older) strains of AIDS! So put that in your pipe and smoke it!
I don’t really give a crap about the flu shot but all the others, sign be the F up!
January 6th, 2008 at 12:57 am
Oh almost forgot…
The smallpox vaccine was the reason for the AIDS immunity
And
The only time I got the flu since I was little was when I worked with kids. GD, I got a exceptionally nasty version of those creepy crawlies that time too. First time I puked since I was like 8…. well through reasons not related to my own stupidity anyway.
Moral: Stay away from children!!!
January 6th, 2008 at 3:45 am
Ha, anti-vax people are not even in the same (crap) league as moon-hoaxers altho the vax companies would like you to believe that…read the medical research on both sides of the argument. there’s a lot of good science that could make one a bit more cautious on this issue.
January 6th, 2008 at 8:03 am
Josh Wrote,
“I got the smallpox vaccine through a study to see if they could manufacture it without cows, just in case. That was 3 or 4 years ago and I have yet to get smallpox! Plus I’m apparently immune to certain (probably older) strains of AIDS! So put that in your pipe and smoke it!”
I have never ever read such a lot of nonsense!!
Philip
January 6th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
you know this all started with the most vial communist plot to subvert and impurify our percious bodily fluids. I am obviously talking about floridation of water. This can have dramatic impacts as we saw in the movie Dr. Strangelove.
Remember Purity Of Essence, Peace On Earth.
January 6th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Now if only they had a vaccine for the daycare transmitted goobery nose syndrome I have now. God-damnd toddlers and their bio-warfare.
January 6th, 2008 at 9:17 pm
Hydro:
Why? Because one happened after the other? The claim you’re making is the very definition of the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. “B happens after A” does not imply “B happens because of A.”
January 6th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
TSFrost:
There’s a method for answering questions like this. It’s called science.
All snark aside, the question you’re asking applies to any medical treatment. The randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial is designed specifically to answer such a question. That is how we demonstrate the efficacy of vaccines, not by “pointing to the success of the polio vaccine” (generally speaking, the fact that vaccine A works gives no evidence for the claim that vaccine B works). You can even find the articles yourself on PubMed. A search for “vaccine double-blind” gives nearly 1800 results.
January 7th, 2008 at 12:03 am
No flu shot for me this winter, but I am getting weekly hay-fever shots. I thought I was just doing it for my own good, but now I realise that I’m actually taking a stand for rationality over woo. Cool.
January 7th, 2008 at 3:54 am
Being a member of the military if i don’t go to the base hospital for my flu shot they will come to my workcenter, have 4 really big dudes hold me down and give it to me whether I want it or not. It just so happens that I am all for flu shots and any other vaccination they want to give me so they’ve never had to do that:) Heck, i think I’m on shot number 13-14 for the anthrax vaccination… lol It hasn’t killed me and nothing has shrivelled up or fallen off yet:)
January 7th, 2008 at 6:24 am
Daniel writes:
[[It is a sad state when falicy and prayer rules the day.]]
I’m praying you change your mind.
January 7th, 2008 at 6:29 am
Michael Lonergan writes:
[[Barton, what was the point of bringing up religion in your post? I haven’t seen anyone blame fundamentalists for this. ]]
Look again. You haven’t been reading the thread very carefully. One post specifically blamed the resistance to vaccination on “fundamentalists,” another was down on prayer.
January 7th, 2008 at 6:44 am
Phil,
I got my flu shot in October. My employer, who just so happens to be a state Department of Community Health, offered several flu shot clinics in our offices throughout October and November.
The good news, most of the shots were covered by our insurance. Even so, the cost in the early season is only about $35.
Even so, I’ve also seen many places providing low-cost flu shots, like my local grocery store’s pharmacy. In fact, the shots are down to the bargain basement price of $10.
January 7th, 2008 at 7:20 am
Josh
How are you concluding that you have immunity from some strains of
HIV? Simply having sex with someone who’s positive for it doesn’t
imply that you will catch it any given time, especially if their viral load is low (as is often the case during non-acute infection and when it has still not advanced to AIDS, especially if they’re taking medications). Moreover, most tests are likely to give false negatives up to a few months after exposure (since your body takes time to produce antibodies which is what most lab tests search for).
There have been a few well-publicized cases of groups that apparently were more resistant to HIV infection, but it’s harder to make that judgment on an individual basis. Also, any acquired immune response to some strain is likely to be more fleeting than any flu shot given the mutation rate of HIV (reverse transcriptase has a very high error rate).
As far as flu shots and the like are concerned, keep in mind that they are intended not only to help you, but to reduce the fraction of the population that can serve as incubators for a virus that can be deadly (even if not to all the vaccinated folks).
January 7th, 2008 at 7:45 am
I’m with you! I got my flu shot a few weeks ago.
And you’re right, when Jennifer Garner opens her mouth, it’s hard to look at anything else
January 7th, 2008 at 7:49 am
I can support mandating vaccines for the good of society when we are talking about readily communicable diseases. I do have problems, though, with mandating vaccines for other diseases.
Case in point, children are required by our state (and many others) to be vaccinated against Hepatitis C before entering school. Hep C is transmitted from blood-to-blood contact, primarily through sexual intercourse and intravenous drug use, which I hope are not vectors found in my child’s school!
The arguement for requiring this vaccination in childhood is that it will provide protection when the child is older and may make these risky choices. Mind you, the risk of a Hep C pandemic is almost nil due to the nature of transmission.
Sorry, my libertarian nature tells me that the limited beneift to society from 100% imunity is trumped by the individual’s right to choice on the matter.
(BTW, I have had both my children vacinated for Hep C, but that was our choice. My daughter is also recieving the HPV vaccine, but again, becasue we decided it was right for our child.)
January 7th, 2008 at 8:02 am
Barton Paul Levenson:
Lessee… most of the people “down on prayer” were so based on the concept of people solely using prayer/other irrational remedies. It cannot be denied that there are indeed some people who do that. Those people are generally wahoos. Prayer itself makes the one praying feel better about themselves, if nothing else, but has no apparent scientific efficacy outside of personal anecdote.
If people want to slap themselves in the face before doing something useful, that’s their right. Maybe they have a good reason to slap themselves in the face; I don’t know. Still, one must understand that slapping oneself in the face looks silly to some people and going “BUT IT’S NOT SILLY BECAUSE OF… UM… IT’S NOT” isn’t entirely effective or indeed productive at all.
January 7th, 2008 at 8:20 am
Phil,
i haven’t gotten the flu since my house mate who worked at a grocery store moved to Buffalo last year. they give us free flu shots here at Ivy U ™, but i just didn’t bother, as i almost never get sick.
i do approve of shots for those at risk… but i’m pretty macha…
dani, the tatter
January 7th, 2008 at 9:54 am
So I guess this was a job for Superman.
January 7th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
For those who say they have had “the flu”, and that it’s no big deal except for the very young, infirm, or old, you really don’t understand the big picture.
Check out Dr. Mark Crislip’s podcasts at http://quackcast.com/QuackCast/Podcasts/Podcasts.html and especially episode 20 about Influenza myths. Mark is an infectious disease specialist and does a terrific job of blasting WOO.
-Tom
January 7th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
I don’t think you are telling the whole story here. The case for vaccination is not general, it depends on the specific parameters involved.
In a simple model, vaccination can be represented as an n-prisoners’ dilemma. Vaccine-skippers have a probability N * I of contracting the disease, where I is the disease incidence, and N is the unvaccinated transmission factor. Vaccine-takers have probability V * I, where V is the vaccinated transmission factor, but they also suffer probability R of suffering a reaction to the vaccine. N, V and R are constants, but I may be highly dependent on the proportion of vaccinated people.
The n-prisoners’ dilemma occurs when a vaccine-skipper can free-ride on the herd immunity provided by the vaccine-takers. This happens only when a vaccine-skipper both helps himself and harms vaccine-takers with his individual action. The n-prisoners’ dilemma constitutes a compelling moral argument for collective public policy intervention.
Not all parameter values of N, V, R, and I produce an n-prisoners’ dilemma. Obviously, the “vaccine” is only useful for V << N and R << 1. An especially interesting case occurs when V goes to zero – i.e., the vaccine is perfectly effective against the disease. In this case, the vaccine-skippers do not harm the vaccine-takers in any way, and therefore there is no prisoner’s dilemma. Perhaps there is some other altruistic moral case for protecting the sinning vaccine-skippers by becoming a saintly vaccine-taker, but it does not remotely rise to the level as when the prisoner’s dilemma is in force. Furthermore, when V approaches 0, rational self-interested actors will drive the risk for either decision towards R, a pareto-efficient outcome. So the case for universal vaccination is not particularly utilitarian, either.
Real vaccines match this simple model to varying degrees and have differing (and often unknown) parameter values. In some parts of this state-space, rational people with different priors may indeed reach different conclusions. I have no use for vaccine conspiracy theorists either, but dismissing everyone who disagrees with you as moon-hoaxers or Mars-facers does not help your case. So no, I am not with you, even though I gladly got my flu shot this season.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Show me an anti-vaccination advocate who holds their position for the reasons you describe, and I’ll admit you have a point. The only anti-vax activists I’ve encountered on the interwebs erroneously argue that vaccination causes autism, or that it fills us with “toxins”, or even that the germ theory of disease is false. The folks making these claims have earned a place in the same boat as the moon-hoaxers and Mars-facers.
The problem with your point is that while it gives a rational reason some people may refuse vaccination, it gives no rational reason for people to advocate against vaccination (indeed, in the game-theoretical scenario you would expect a “skipper” to encourage other people to be vaccinated, to decrease their own chances of contracting disease).
Moreover, while it’s interesting to consider the case when V goes to zero, real-life vaccines tend to have a non-trivial failure rate.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:39 pm
[The problem with your point is that while it gives a rational reason some people may refuse vaccination, it gives no rational reason for people to advocate against vaccination (indeed, in the game-theoretical scenario you would expect a “skipper” to encourage other people to be vaccinated, to decrease their own chances of contracting disease).]
Perhaps they are not as selfish as you think. Perhaps they are arguing their convictions for the greater good, just as vaccine advocates are.
It is indeed curious that anti-vacciners argue that both vaccine failure rate V and vaccine reaction rate R are high, which by my thinking is still a contentious configuration for the prisoner’s dilemma matrix. Similarly, vaccine advocates typically contend that vaccines are safe and effective — that V and R are low — which should militate towards a public policy of individual self-determination.
Show me a vaccination advocate who holds that low V actually diminishes the case for intrusive public policy and respects the wishes of those who opt out not to be included in the statistical case for compulsory measures. (I don’t count.) Then maybe we’ll have found the two people who won’t talk past each other.
January 9th, 2008 at 9:10 am
[...] I said on a Bad Astronomer Blog thread: while there may be a vaccine/autism connection, the mercury [...]
January 9th, 2008 at 9:39 am
You’re approaching the question as though the anti-vaccine crowd holds their position rationally. By and large, this is a group strongly convinced that vaccines cause autism (see Hydro’s comment earlier in the thread), in spite of (a) no evidence for that claim and (b) copious amounts of evidence against it. I’ve spent some time following their antics online, and it’s clear these folks are impervious to evidence.
What do you mean by “low”? How low should it be before we make vaccination optional?
The folks I’ve met in public health are well aware of the strengths and limitations of vaccines, and are primarily concerned with maintaining herd immunity and keeping the general population healthy. Why should they also have the responsibility to push for a libertarian agenda? And how do you ensure that the vaccination rate is sufficient to maintain herd immunity if vaccination is optional? Last I checked, getting immunizations isn’t even all that intrusive (and requiring them forces insurances companies to cover them; it’s usually not too difficult to dodge that requirement if you really care to do so).
January 9th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
The right to individual self-determination is not a fringe libertarian idea, it is a core precept of liberalism. If you think that public health folks should not be be bothered to even consider the preferences of those they purport to serve, then you shouldn’t be surprised when the political process overrules their recommendations.
January 10th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Hydro: the idea that autism is caused by vaccination is a correlation equalling causation fallacy. It’s classically illustrated with the Skinner “Supersition in the Pigeon” study -
http://psychclassics.yorku.ca/Skinner/Pigeon/
Any time there is an event and a proximal event it could reasonably be assumed that one causes the other, until you actually test it by withholding the supposed cause. If vaccinations were the cause, autism rates should have shot up at the advent of vaccination. If mercury was the cause, autism should have declined at the inception of the FDA and been rampant before this. Every hatter should have had autistic children.
Mounting evidence, however, suggests that brain changes in autism occur before birth at stages of development involving migration of brain cells and affected by maternal hormone balance, and even more interestingly that inflammatory cytokinines alleviate some of the social symptoms of autism in mild to moderate cases. If inflammation or injury were a cause, wouldn’t further stress exacerbate symptoms? The summary is that symptoms appear around age two, which just so happens to be when children are in the middle of vaccination. The brain changes are already there.
Think for yourself. Don’t be a pigeon.
And for the purposes of full disclosure: I have a seven year old autistic son who has been vaccinated.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:53 am
Elf Eye said:
“My daughter and I have both gotten our flu shots, and my daughter has received her third and final HPV shot, the fundamentalists be damned!”
Good for you! Human Papilloma Virus can cause cervical cancer (alliteration accidental).
February 4th, 2008 at 10:36 am
Vaccinations are good. They must be, everyone does it and my doctor tells me they are good.
Yeah, nice skeptical thinking there. If you’re going to be skeptical then question everything, not just things that go against what you want to believe. I love the people in here referring to “studies” that I betting they just read about and took at face value without researching at all the facts of the study.
Skeptics. Yeah. Most of you wouldn’t know a skeptical thought if you tripped over it. There’s bad information on both sides of vaccines. You can’t just believe the stuff that supports your view and discount the stuff that doesn’t. There’s people with agendas on both sides. Take anything at face value at your own risk.
Be a real skeptic and question everything and everyone. You might just learn something for yourself instead and something you didn’t even plan on finding.