Repeat after me: asteroid 2007 TU24 is no danger to Earth

By Phil Plait | January 21, 2008 9:47 pm

Hey, remember my slapping down a video that was full of baloney about asteroid TU24?

Well, there is more of that garbage floating around You Tube, this time from user "TU24dotORG". The video in question is full of what I can politely call inaccuracies. The basic premise is that this asteroid, which will pass our planet by quite some distance on January 29, may cause all kinds of havoc on Earth. Why? Well, because they say so.

For example, it says,

Although the chances of a direct impact with Earth are very minimal, truth is we don’t know much about TU24.

"Very minimal" overstates it. The chances are essentially 0. It’ll miss us by hundreds of thousands of kilometers.

But that’s not the point of that part of the video; the creator is trying to promote fear by saying astronomers don’t understand the asteroid. The next part of the video points out a few things about the asteroid we don’t know yet, like the asteroid’s pole direction, its rotation period, the light curve amplitude, and the spectral class.

Well, that means we don’t know if it’s spinning, how much the brightness fluctuates with time, or whether this is an iron or rocky asteroid.

My reply to that is… so? While those may be of scientific interest, they make no difference at all to the fact that the asteroid won’t hit us, and poses zero danger. That part of the video is literally laughable, in that I actually laughed out loud when I saw it.

The next bit shows a webpage about the asteroid saying that better astrometry (physical measurements of the asteroid’s position on the sky) is needed, but that’s always true, for every asteroid! That has nothing to bear on the (false) claim that this asteroid is a threat. We need to refine the orbit of the object, get the error bars lowered in our ability to predict its future positions. But that doesn’t mean we don’t know where it will be in a few weeks to pretty good accuracy.

This is simple fear mongering on the part of the person who made this video, and I take a very dim view of that. A very dim view.

In the next section, the video creator says that Comet Holmes was "40% more massive than our Sun".

This may be ad hominem, but I’d have a pretty hard time believing someone’s claims when they confuse mass with size. Comet Holmes has a very small mass, more like that of a mountain, trillions of times less than the Sun’s mass. While the expanding gas cloud from it got bigger than the Sun in diameter, it was very, very tenuous, like a high grade vacuum by lab standards. The mass was teeny tiny.

The video creator then goes on about the electric universe, a long-discredited theory mostly supported by people who have a hard time grasping that large objects are electrically neutral. They think that things like the Earth exchange vast amounts of electric charge with everything around them, which is pretty silly. We have actual satellites in space that measure electrical and magnetic discharges, and while this stuff is extraordinarily complicated and the details certainly aren’t ironed out, it’s very clear that the claims of the EU people are totally wrong.

To prove my point, the video then shows lightning, and says it’s plasma discharge from the Sun. Oops. The guy who made the video confuses lightning with the aurora borealis. Not a good sign.

Inexplicably, the video then jumps to 2007 WD5, an asteroid that will pass close to Mars around the same time TU24 passes the Earth. It says that WD5 picked up positive ions from the Earth when it passed us on November 2. Thing is, it passed us at a distance of 7 million kilometers. That’s a wee bit far (18 times the Moon’s distance) to have picked up anything from us! If it could do that, why doesn’t the Moon pick up loads more charge?

Oh yeah, because this stuff is wrong.

Then the video gets nasty, and particularly evil. It says that TU24 (the one that gets kinda close to us later this month) could

… easily cause earthquakes, deadly storms, and massive eruptions of fire across hundreds or even thousands of square miles.

That’s complete and utter crap. And it gets worse.

It then says,

Think an asteroid can’t do this?

One already has…

100 years ago

TUNGUSKA.

Yeah, well, there’s an eensy weensy difference between the Tunguska impactor and TU24: the Tunguska impactor was an impactor. It hit us. TU24 won’t hit us.

Feh.

Then the video does the usual and expected paranoid thing, saying NASA won’t admit how close it will get, yadda yadda.

Let me be perfectly clear: this video is almost entirely garbage. The asteroid will miss by hundreds of thousands of kilometers, so there will be no direct impact. There’s no such thing as a "negative asteroid", like they claim, the plasma discharges they talk about are a totally different phenomenon, and nothing like that has ever been seen in an asteroid, nor will it ever. Asteroids don’t carry charges like that, and wouldn’t couple well with the Earth’s magnetosphere the way they claim anyway.

We’re totally safe from this asteroid in January, and I’d bet anything on it. Literally.

Some people might think I am being harsh; however, doomcryers are, in my opinion, among the lowest form of life. If they’re conmen (or pranksters) then they’re a particularly fetid brand of evil, and if they’re honest, they’re not trying very hard to educate themselves on reality (yet going to a lot more trouble to make YouTube videos about it). A third kind, of course, may be honest people with mental problems, and so in my opinion are worthy of our sympathy. But that doesn’t mean we cannot take action to correct what they are doing.

In the end, as well, all three kinds of fearmonger try very hard to scare people, and facts be damned. And many times I’ve seen people good and truly scared by garbage like this. I get emails…

Needless to say I’ll try to stay on top of stuff like this. I’m just glad in a week people like "TU24dotORG" will be out of a job. Temporarily, of course, until they find the next thing they can terrorize people with. Grrrrr.


Many thanks to BABLoggee Ibeechu for letting me know about this.

Comments (321)

  1. Dave Hall

    Well, heck–
    Who needs truth if its dull?

  2. Dan

    I’m glad you’re staying on top of these things, Phil. You do a good job of debunking the craziness.

    Now, of course, my inner-anarchist wants a total collapse of civilization because I’d love to run up my credit cards on the 28th just to wake up on the 29th to find out my bank has been consumed by a lake of lava (and don’t tell me they don’t deserve it. They do. Oh yes!).

    So, bring on the earthquakes, floods, locusts and Volvos acting suspiciously like Fords. We want chaos!

  3. Cameron

    I’m torn…do I feel sorry for all of the poor terrified people who believe in bullcrap, or do I laugh at their stupidity?

  4. Breniir

    Yeah that was a bit much… But I am not sure what to be scared of more, the pseudoscience of the video, or the inane comments by all the people who actually thought the video was based in reality at all.

  5. Good grief.

    I just read the comments and my brain exploded. Can people really be physically capable of operating a keyboard to type, and still be that credulous?

  6. Michael Lonergan

    Well, there’s always Niburu…

  7. Jokermage

    Phil, you should do a video post on this if you get a chance and then post it to YouTube as a reply to the other video.

  8. Ren

    There’s an awful lot of fearmongering going on these days. New fad I guess. From the Discovery channel to National Geo to any one of three dozen or more morally challenged neocon politicians and their apologists. Thats why its a great relief to discover new sites like this where the blogger in charge has a firm grasp on reality, because he can seperate fact from fiction through his expertise. Reality and truth are refreshing, and increasingly rare in todays world. A fellow skeptic.

  9. I wonder if people aren’t just practising for dealing with climate change. They’re just not quite ready for the real thing yet.

  10. Luftwacko

    I’ve posted 2 comments (more like critics) on his vid and it’s “pending approval”. I’d bet my foot he’s gonna delete it. If comet Holmes is “larger” and “more massive” than our sun, wouldn’t everything orbit the comet instead?

  11. Random guy

    If you bet anything and lose out on the bet it really won’t matter now will it. I’l also bet anything that it won’t hit us.

    I understand where you are coming from and agree with you but the bet makes you sound like a prick.

  12. The guy is a threat, not the asteroid. Jokermage, I’m waiting for a video post too.

  13. Alice

    Interesting. Thanks for that bit there.

  14. Lita

    Thanks. I was scared.

  15. Devils Sorta Reluctant Barrister

    The BA wrote :

    “Let me be perfectly clear: this video is almost entirely garbage.”

    Only _almost_ entirely? ;-)

    Really?

    So .. umm … what part of it isn’t garbage …?

  16. Tunguska primer

    Phil Plait the Bad Astronomer noted :

    ” … this stuff is wrong. Then the video gets nasty, and particularly evil. It says that TU24 (the one that gets kinda close to us later this month) could

    [quote] … easily cause earthquakes, deadly storms, and massive eruptions of fire across hundreds or even thousands of square miles. [Unquote]

    That’s complete and utter crap. And it gets worse.It then says,

    [quote] Think an asteroid can’t do this? One already has… 100 years ago
    TUNGUSKA.” [Unquote]

    Tunguska actually did NOT cause earthquakes, deadly storms and massive eruptions of fire. The U-tool-vidiot is wrong again.

    The Tunguska event which occurred on June 30th 1908 was a massive air-blast explosion (with some fragments possibly hittting the ground) from a fireball that appeared brighter than the Sun and split the sky in two as seen by nearby witnesses. Its detonation about 8 km above the Earth’s surface and around 15 megatons seared and flattened over 2,000 square kilometres of Siberian forest, could be heard over 800 km away and produced strange bright “White” night skies over the northern hemisphere for many nights afterwards. Amazingly, so sparsely populated is the Siberian wilderness, that no-one (at least as far as we know) was killed although some people nearest the impact were knocked off their feet and thousands of reindeer were vapourised.

    The impact was seismically recorded around the world although it took 13 years before the Russians sent the first scientific expedition led by Leonid Kulik to study the event and discover the full extent of the damage.

    That 1921 study was the first of several by Kulik who uncovered the devastation and whose inconclusive but enthralling results heightened the mystery. Kulik’s rather tragic story ended with his death as a German prisoner in WWII. The Tunguska event created much interest with its absence of crater coupled to significant and dramatic impact leading to many far-out pseudo-scientific “theories” for its impacting body such as antimatter-asteroids, mini-black-holes and, naturally, alien spacecraft! However, modern calculations suggest the object was probably a stony asteroid and, possibly, a fragment of Encke’s comet.* (Chyba, December 1993 & Steel, 1995)

    Those are the facts of it.
    ———————–
    Sources :

    Chyba, Christopher, “Death from the Sky” in Astronomy, December 1993, Kalmbach publishing co.
    ‘Phillip’s Astronomy Dictionary’, Phillips, 1996.
    Steel, Duncan, ‘Rogue Asteroids & Doomsday Comets’, John Wiley & Sons, 1995.
    Stoneley, Jack, ‘Tunguska : Cauldron of Hell’, WH Allen &Co, 1977.

    —————————

    So Tunguska :

    1) caused an earthquake singular but not quakes plural and nothing too devastating : seismically recorded doesn’t mean major city-toppling disaster.

    2) NO “deadly storms” just strangely bright nights. Well unless youcount the initial firestorm from the airburts blastwave but somehow I don’t think that’s quite what the U-vid-fool meant .. ;-)

    3) NO “massive eruptions of fire” plural. Novolcanic outbursts or kaka like that. There was the initial firestorm – singular – created by the blast … I think .. But that was where it stopped.

    Tunguska wasn’t as bad as made out there. Mind you, I still wouldn’t have liked to be underneath it at point zero or even within 1,000 km of impact.

    But unless it hit Washington or somewhere really major, a similar event, while damaging and pretty goshdarned aweful for those affected wouldn’t bring down our society today …

    As for the Bad Astronomers remark that :

    “…the video then shows lightning, and says it’s plasma discharge from the Sun. Oops. The guy who made the video confuses lightning with the aurora borealis. Not a good sign.”

    Well that had me ROTFLMAO! 8)

    Congratulations, Dr Phil Plait, the Bad Astronomer Supreme, you’ve just won the ’2008 Understatement-of-the-Year Award!

  17. Tom

    Be sure to check out the orbit graphic:

    http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007+TU24&orb=1

    The ascending node doesn’t even intersect the Earth’s orbit, and intersection is usual (but not required) in the case of a potential impactor, like Apophis:

    http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=apophis&orb=1

    So, TU24 has about as much chance of hitting Earth as there is that the constitution will be suspended in the coming year (see 4th previous post on this website).

    Both strike me as fearmongering. In one case, Phil’s strength is fighting the fearmongering, in the other…?

  18. Jesse

    I wish I could say I wasn’t worried since this has been causing quite a fuss on message boards. I’m just happy there are people like you out there debunking those fear mongers. If anyone or thing will bring doom to earth it’s them.

  19. Chris Oldfield

    always sux when Fear Mongers get a hold of stuff like this

    one thing to think about is the Increase in Roids heading our way

    picture this

    10,0000 years a go 2 roids hit each other some one out there and fragments begin there path which will take them close to us!

    Hopefully this will act as a wake up call, maybe governments will realize although there’s plenty down here to mess a country s plans up..nothing like a roid playing End game for us all

  20. Earthquakes, storms, eruptions of fire? Crap, it’s Ming! Quick, send Flash up there in a hurry! Go, Flash, Go!

    Thanks for the well written and informative post. Really enjoy your blog.

    -Jamie

  21. heather

    thankyouthankyouthankyou ad infinitum…unfortunately, “bad science” now is headline news – see cnn, fox, msnbc et al. if it bleeds, it leads…i hate to mention, but with natgeo, discovery channel and others running docs about prophecy (almost an oxymoron), nutjobs like the tu24.com freak will only have grist for the mill with 2012 approaching. and you thought the millenium madness was bad….i’m digging my “doomsday” cellar right now…so i have someplace to hide from this fella and all the others “looking for signs” of earth’s demise.

  22. Hi. I am the creator of the website and video. Thanks for the links and post. The more people that see the website and video, the better.

    Yes, there are some inaccuracies in the video. It was rushed, and there are errors such as 40% more massive. I was thinking about this when I wrote “the biggest thing in the solar system” but it slipped my mind when I edited out some text and replaced it with “more massive” does not. The fact is Holmes’ volume expanded to be 2,200% larger than Sol. (This part you don’t mention, by the way.)

    The video is no different than a typical science book. Is it flawed? Yes. Is it a useful tool for discussion? Sure. Has it created discussion? Of course. That is the purpose.

    The video and website were created to stir controversy and ‘get it out there’. Obviously, it’s working. One week to go before a ‘potentially hazardous asteroid’ misses us (and comes rather close, in astronomical terms) and there is NO NEWS YET. Doesn’t this seem strange?

  23. By the way.. you’re of course perfectly welcome to create your own video if you’re so concerned. I did mine in under 3 hours so it should be rather easy to do.

    If you can hold back on the name-calling and sophomoric language (“Bad Manners?”) in your video I’ll even post it on my website. ;)

  24. MistaVee

    I’m gathering topics for a one month course for high school age students in astronomy this summer. I’ll have to remember to include NEO’s like TU24.

  25. Carey

    Now be nice everyone – he’s clearly deranged, but he was nice enough to come and leave a comment.

  26. Halcyon Dayz

    NEOs missing by half a million kilometres happens at least once per year.

    No news is no news. And that’s good news.

  27. Tom

    TU-

    I will not see your movie, and debated responding to your post. The problem here comes when people who are half-informed (I feel I’m being generous) try to create fear where there isn’t a need. If news sources pick up on your story, and nothing happens on January 29th, then when there is a real concern, it will be that much harder to convince people of a real threat. News media and the NEO community have had a rocky time learning how to interact without undue alarm. Your actions have created a new method for (potentially) creating undue alarm.

    Here’s some homework:

    1. Research the Palermo Scale:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palermo_scale

    It compares the threat that a particular asteroid has compared to the background threat from objects of similar size. A positive number is bad, and only a couple asteroids have achieved positive numbers. TU24 read a maximum of -5.45 early on, when we were unsure of its orbit, but now doesn’t even appear on the list (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/)

    2. Check this list:

    http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/

    and you’ll see that another (smaller) asteroid (2008 AF3) was even closer that TU24 on January 13th.

    3. Follow the news of how our understanding of the threat for Apophis (2004 MN4) evolved from the highest chance of an impact ever (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news146.html) to no threat (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news148.html)

    4. Gain more in-depth knowledge of a topic before you make a video about it.

    Generating interest in NEOs and their threat is good. Overplaying any particular threat (which you are doing) is bad.

  28. Rob

    It’s possibly worth noting that as it flies past the Earth, TU24 is going to be pinged with radar from Arecibo. That will fill in a lot of the blanks: they’ll probably be able to get a good orbit and a physical model for the asteroid.

    However, it’s not a ‘once a year’ event. TU24 is (at least according to the abstract on the Arecibo site), the closest-approaching known ‘Potentially Hazardous Asteroid’ until 2027.

  29. Chas

    Speaking of fearmongers — the History channel, of all people who should be promoting truth, has a program on yesterday saying that in 2012 or thereabouts, the Sun, Earth and the black hole at the center of the Galaxy were going to line up, which would cause …. Pole Shift! Earthquakes!! Tsunasmi’s!!! As predicted by the Incas!
    I couldn’t stand to watch more than a few minutes of it. They did have the token skeptic, I gather.

    On another topic, what caused the Tunguska object to explode? It wasn’t a ball of ammonium nitrate, after all (nor antimatter, nor an ailen spaceship) So why should it go boom! at all? Was the mechanism a hypersonic shock wave due to striking the atmosphere, causing it to fragment?

  30. Matty

    Saw a ling on another forum creating panic about this, the link they produced was to a conspiricy theory website not knowing that i started to get a bit worried, but after finding this and seeing the real science i am now at easy.
    Slightly off topic but looking at sort of getting back into astronamy, used to like it when i was a kid, and really liked phyisics. how should i get back into it as a hobby?

  31. Ibeechu

    TU-
    Yes, it is strange that the media hasn’t reported it. The media loves reporting claims that inspire fear, but have no basis in reality.

    See, you think it’s just a harmless discussion starter, but it could actually cause fear. My friend who showed me the video was literally panicking about the end of the world. I had to explain to him that it was garbage. I sent Phil the video so that someone who knows a lot more about astronomy than I could say it was bunk.

    The problem comes with tricking ignorant people. The public doesn’t have a great knowledge about astronomy, so they assume anything with buzzwords and pretty graphics are true. This is taking advantage of peoples’ fears. That’s really lame.

  32. mmiikkee

    YOU ARE LYING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  33. Michelle

    aah, you just know someone is sure about their claims being irrefutable when they enforce comment approval on their videos….

    A silly silly man. When January 29th comes I’ll be sure to point and laugh at him.

  34. George

    So how do we know YOU arent with the government or something and they made you say its going to be ok?

    Not only that but, why is it SO unlikely that an astroid might hit earth? Has it NOT happened in the past, tons of times before?

    You should open your mind a little

  35. KaiYves

    These people scare me.

  36. Ugh…

    Phil’s comments were posted in their entirety on this forum -

    http://www.tu24.org

    and STILL the forum readers don’t understand just how much garbage this guy is spewing.

    Sigh…

  37. xianlee

    Lol, what’s the point in trying to scare us like this?

    Hang on a minute, i think i will go and get a chip implmented in my skin so the goverment can track me.

    Oh wait then again, ill be dead.

  38. Rob

    George, it’s entirely possible that an asteroid or a comet might hit the Earth. However, this one isn’t going to (at least not this time). We know its orbit well enough to know that it is missing us. Asteroids don’t make sudden last-minute turns; they keep moving under gravity along paths that can be calculated. It’s like: ‘How do you know that anvil three meters up and two meters to the side is going to miss you when I cut the rope?’ ‘It’s two meters to the side and it’s going to land two meters to the side!’

  39. Davidlpf

    well that video was a discharge of something it was not plasma.

  40. John Phillips, FCD

    Chas, without checking, it is a long time since I read up on it, but it depends on what it was made of and what size it was. Tunkusga was, IIRC, estimated as an approximately 60m rocky asteroid that exploded when the forces from the shock wave exceeded its ‘hold together’ strength. When that happens it tends to explosively disintegrate, leaving little but very small pieces and dust. Rocks about half the diameter of Tunguska explode in a like fashion in the upper atmosphere annually.

  41. jest

    Ugh, my brain hurts.

    I actually tried to watch the video, and had to shut ‘er down the moment I saw the bit about Comet Holmes. I KNEW it couldn’t possibly get better from there.

  42. George

    Hey what about the earths gravity pulling the asteroid in?

  43. Good comments Tom.

    And because I had too much seriousness on my drive in to work today, I’d like to point out that the asteroid is not the big problem, it’s Xenu’s spaceship that’s hidden behind it that we should be worried about.

  44. Matty (& TU24 too):
    You can do a Google search for an astronomy club near where you live. Attend some of the meetings and talk to the members. You’ll find they are very interested in helping you see the wonders of the night sky. You can have a look through their telescopes and see the advantages (and disadvantages) of each design. They’ll proabaly give you catalogs from telescope suppliers to order stuff from (I have a pile of Orion catalogs myself). They can help you avoid the costly mistake of buying a hard to use scope and save you a -TON- of dough!
    Rich

  45. Chas posts:

    [[On another topic, what caused the Tunguska object to explode? It wasn’t a ball of ammonium nitrate, after all (nor antimatter, nor an ailen spaceship) So why should it go boom! at all? Was the mechanism a hypersonic shock wave due to striking the atmosphere, causing it to fragment?]]

    Well, if it was a chunk of comet, there was probably ice present as well as rock, and the heat of reentry could have caused a steam explosion.

  46. francis

    Mon deu! Mon deu! THE GOVERNMENT IS INITIATING A COVERUP OF THE FACTUAL IMPORTANCE DISCOVERED WITHIN THE DISTENNUAL COMPILATION OF THE IDEA!!!!!!!!

  47. Chas

    John: TY

    Yeah, that’s what I was thinking. But that isn’t exactly the definition of an “explosion”, ie a sudden release of chemical or other energy, that I’ve understood.

  48. Nigel Depledge

    TU24dotORG said:
    “The video is no different than a typical science book.”

    Rubbish. A typical science book, if written honestly by someone who has done their homework, will typically be >99% factually correct. Your video is >99% nonsense.

    You went on to say:
    ” Is it flawed? Yes. Is it a useful tool for discussion? Sure. Has it created discussion? Of course. That is the purpose.”

    Why do you need to lie to stimulate discussion?

    You also said:
    “The video and website were created to stir controversy and ‘get it out there’. Obviously, it’s working. One week to go before a ‘potentially hazardous asteroid’ misses us (and comes rather close, in astronomical terms) and there is NO NEWS YET. Doesn’t this seem strange?”

    No, it is not strange. It is going to be a non-event, except to the owners of large telescopes. No-one else will be able even to see it!

    You, sir, are a liar. The proof is in your own video. Earthquakes and storms indeed. Pish!

  49. Hoonser

    Lovecraft was right. I forget the quote but it’s appropriate to the situation.

  50. Nigel Depledge

    TU24dotORG said:
    “If you can hold back on the name-calling and sophomoric language (”Bad Manners?”) in your video I’ll even post it on my website”

    Well, since you have lied to get some attention, why should anyone hold back from calling you a liar?

  51. George says:

    [[Hey what about the earths gravity pulling the asteroid in?]]

    If the asteroid’s velocity in space is high enough, and perpendicular enough, the Earth’s gravity can’t pull it in. It might change its course, but not enough for it to hit us. Earth’s gravitational pull beyond the orbit of the Moon is pretty feeble, although not nonexistent. The pull of gravity at a given distance from a planet is:

    g = G M / R^2

    where g is the gravitational pull (in the SI metric system, in meters per second per second), G is Newton’s constant for gravity (about 6.67428 x 10-11 m3 kg-1 s-2, M is the planet’s mass (in kilograms), and R is the distance from the center (in meters). For Earth and asteroid TU24, we have the following conditions:

    G = 6.67428e-11
    M = 5.9736e24 kg (Earth’s mass according to NASA)
    R = 560,000,000 m

    so g comes out to about 0.00127 m s-2. Compare this to the mean pull at Earth’s surface (9.80665 m/s2), and maximum pull the asteroid TU24 will experience from Earth is about 0.00013 g (about one 7700th of a g). It won’t hit us.

  52. BA, Dr. Plait, Phil if I may, is there any way to alter this blog so it recognizes the HTML superscript tags? I expect not, but I thought I’d ask…

  53. Nigel Depledge

    George (and I really, really hope you meant this satirically, but is so hard to tell with really deep woo) said:
    “Not only that but, why is it SO unlikely that an astroid might hit earth? Has it NOT happened in the past, tons of times before?”

    It is not unlikely. It is almost certain that another asteroid will hit Earth sooner or later. The difficult bit is working out which ones are the threat and when they are likely to hit (and also, where they are likely to hit – a land impact is far less dangerous than an ocean impact unless it hits a city).

    As far as we can tell (and we have enough information to be pretty sure about it), TU24 is not going to hit Earth this year. It will pass us by quite close on an astronomical scale, but will still miss by nearly 500,000 km. That’s far too far away to offer any threat to Earth.

    Oh, and how do we know Phil isn’t part of a conspiracy? That’s easy. Wait until the 29th of January. You’ll see then who is on the level. I predict that Phil (who knows about these things) is right and that TU24dotORG (who got some pretty basic facts wrong) is wrong.

  54. Nigel Depledge

    George said:
    “Hey what about the earths gravity pulling the asteroid in?”

    Oh, yeah, right, no-one ever thought of that.

    Er, or not, in fact. The Earth is relatively small. While it does perturb (sp?) the orbits of other objects, these effects are very small unless the object passes very close to the Earth. The Earth will perturb the orbit of TU24, but not by nearly enough to make it hit this time.

    Believe it or not, the people that study NEOs actually know about the Earth’s gravity and allow for it.

  55. Vjacheslav

    Those who belong to the “particularly fetid brand of evil” try to hurt people, not manipulate them. Religions (especially eastern ones) bear wars rarer than ordinary cupidity or paranoic fear, and politicians, generals and tycoons must be dreaded more than preachers, pseudoscientists or sensationalist journalists. Even if the video was a sign of somebody’s common dismay, he may be esteemed, since having no intelligence (or too much wit), nevertheless he tries to divert his anger from human beings, just alluding to their unions, such as NASA. Poor scientists, living in their ivory towers, surrounded by raging crowd that likes to be lead by philosophers in soutanes that have lucid heart but distraught eyes, trying to divert madmans’ anger from the towers’ foundations!

  56. Nigel Depledge

    Chas said:
    “But that isn’t exactly the definition of an “explosion”, ie a sudden release of chemical or other energy, that I’ve understood.”

    A meteor explosion is a release of energy – it is a combination of the mechnical energy of the structure of the object, the compression of the air (its shock wave as it ploughs into our atmosphere) and the heat arising from the compression of the air (not from friction, BTW). Ultimately, the energy comes from the kinetic energy the object possessed before it hit our atmosphere.

    Think of an explosion as a sudden and violent release of pressure. It doesn’t matter what causes the pressure – wherever something is pressurised and suddenly fails to contain the pressure, there will be an explosion.

    As an impactor is violently compressed and shaken by passage through our atmosphere, when it fails to cohere, this failure is typically sudden and violent. The shock wave it has accumulated as it passes through the upper atmosphere will rapidly disperse any small pieces that don’t vaporise.

    I am sure someone else will correct this if I have got it wrong. Won’t you, Phil?

  57. Steve

    Does anyone know a good website that shows when TU24 will be visible from different spots on the globe? All I can find are “will it hit us” webpages

  58. Say what you will, but there’s no filth spewing forth from my mouth such as so easily illustrated here.

    Who knew astronomers and their armchair like could be so angry and defensive.

    Before claiming that one already knows the facts about an unknown universe (seems I’m not the only one.. tsk), how about a simple wager?

    If there are no effects from asteroids WD5 and TU24 by Feb 1, 2008, such as illustrated in my video, then I will personally donate $500 to support the Bad Astronomy website server or to a charity of your choice.

    We have only a few days. How about taking me up on it?

  59. Gary Ansorge

    They’re suspending the Constitution? ACK! Grab your muskets and head for the hills,,,

    I expect the probability of the Constitution being suspended is infinitely higher than the probability( 0%) that TU24 will hit us. After all, it’s mere humans in charge down here and we all know how THEY are,,,

    ,,,Oh, wait,,,I remember,,,I incarnated as a human this time around. Well, that’s the roll of the mystical dice,,

    NEver mind,,,

    Gary 7
    PS: It’s SOOOO EASY to make money off frightened people. Fear IS the Mind killer,,,

  60. alfaniner

    “If there are no effects from asteroids WD5 and TU24 by Feb 1, 2008, such as illustrated in my video, then I will personally donate $500 to support the Bad Astronomy website server or to a charity of your choice.”

    What would constitute “no effects”? Or better yet, you should perhaps define the parameters of effects, as natural events happen all the time without the influence of an asteroid.

  61. Alan B.

    The video has a quote from a site called exopolitics.org that is even crazier than the video. Here’s a sample quote:

    [N]uclear weapons testing forms a threat to extraterrestrial civilizations due to the disruptive effects of such weapons on the space time continuum used by extraterrestrials to visit the Earth…. [H]umanity’s irresponsible use of nuclear weapons could lead to extraterrestrials taking punitive action to prevent such use.

  62. Egaeus

    TU24, I don’t see any ad hominem attacks here, simply the assertion that you are either poorly informed, outright lying, or both. If you tell a lie, and someone says that you are lying, it is not an ad hominem attack. If they call you a lying @$$hat or a complete dumb@$$, then that is an ad hominem attack, which I would not condone.

    If there was a way to enforce the bet, I’d be more than happy to take you up on it, and I’d have to put off my rent payment a couple of days if I lost. But that doesn’t worry me in the least.

  63. rl2008

    The electrical universe a long-discredited theory?

    OK, we’ll give you a couple years to figure it out. Even NASA is doing backflips trying to incorporate the electrical universe into it’s ‘dirty-snowball’ comet model.

    So how does NASA go about proving there is no electricity on space? It sends one satellite, which measures itself and finds no charge, because it’s neutral. Now if a SECOND satellite were to take measurements of the first – but no, that wouldn’t fit into the theory, and more than x-ray observations of the sunward spikes of comets would fit into the theory…

    Anyway, Phil, we’ll check back in a few years and see if you’re still pimping the NASA bandwagon – which by then will include many ‘new’ ‘discoveries’ about the electrical nature of the universe.

  64. badAst

    I’d love to see TU refute bad astronomy point by point, but it seems he can only claim what he DOESN’T know. I have a feeling TU is an intelligent design nut as well.

  65. “asteroid 2007 TU24 is no danger to Earth”

  66. I’d take that bet if I could. I need a new camera lens.

  67. Alan B.
    The video has a quote from a site called exopolitics.org that is even crazier than the video. Here’s a sample quote:
    [N]uclear weapons testing forms a threat to extraterrestrial civilizations due to the disruptive effects of such weapons on the space time continuum used by extraterrestrials to visit the Earth…. [H]umanity’s irresponsible use of nuclear weapons could lead to extraterrestrials taking punitive action to prevent such use.

    Well, they ARE remaking The Day The Earth Stood Still.

    J/P=?

  68. Jarrod Henry

    For those concerned about pulling it in, a simple experiment. (You all have done this, I bet)

    To conduct this experiment, you will need:

    1. A baseball.
    2. A bundle of string.
    3. Likely two people.

    Now, the baseball will be “earth.” Wind the string around the baseball 9 and a half times. Then, walk out, with one person holding the earth and one end of the string.. and the other person holding the other end of the string.

    Where the other person stops is where the moon is in relation to the earth.

    Wow. Betcha thought it was closer :)

    Next, wind the string around the baseball 13 times, and walk it out similarly.

    That is where TU24 is.

    Now.. just for fun, TU24 is 300 meters long, plus or minus a factor of two. Let’s assume it’s just 300, since that’s the average. That’s a diameter.

    The earth , by comparison, has a diamter of 12,756,320 meters. So.. comparatively..

    the ratio is that the earth is 42,521 times the diameter of this object.

    So if that baseball is 2.8 to 2.9 inches in diameter.. than, the object that you are looking for is no bigger than .000066 of an inch.

    So that’s what it is.

    TU24 is around .000066 of an inch in diameter , 13 circumfrances away from a baseball.

    There you go. When ever you worry about something.. it’s ALWAYS best to do the math.

  69. Chip

    “TU24 is around .000066 of an inch in diameter , 13 circumfrances away from a baseball.” ~ Jarrod Henry

    Well Jarrod, the only factor you left out was that the little object that is .000066 of an inch in diameter is moving at 21,000 MPH!

    It also just so happens to be the factor that makes one ponder the possibilities while considering that the object will be 353,400 miles from the Earth itself.

    353,400 in not a great distance for something traveling at 21,000 MPH.

    Especially with “Astronomers” changing their official opine on everything from the Big bang to Black holes every week. When they speak: we might as well be listening to the weather man….

  70. Richard Wolford

    Thanks for the in depth discussion there Chip. Perhaps you’d be interested in knowing that the earth moves around the sun at around 67K mph, so I assume you factored that in?

    Oh, and you also imply that 21K mph can be a good speed to cover 353K miles. Hmm, yeah, would be, save of course that the earth is moving, pretty quickly, and it’s not coming right for us, but rather is going to a point in space where the earth will be; well, to a point near where earth will be, since we won’t be colliding.

    Oh, and that weather man you’re talkiing about, where’d he get all of his info again? I’m thinking that advances in earth observations gave way to a better understanding of our atmosphere and weather, which leads to better predictions.

    So, other than showing you’re a complete bonehead, what did you contribute exactly?

  71. Chip

    Richard, if you have the more accurate position on this subject; why have I not heard anything from NASA via the news about it? They were talking big about the Mars strike possibility! And, they always say “Whew, that was a close one!” after the fact!

    On there own website they state that “This is the closest NEO until 2027″ and no news…

    If I saw what you were saying on MSNBC, CNN, or even FAUX I would blow it off…but I haven’t seen it anywhere!

    All I have seen is a bunch of blowhards telling us it’s a Non-Issue!

    My point is quite vivid! If it’s nothing, why don’t they tell us it’s nothing?

    From the simple equation of common logic that I have just explained to you…you sir seem to be the “bonehead” on this issue.

  72. Jim

    So, when are you going to take on the fear mongers who are leading the Global warming / Climate change religion?
    They have nearly as many “facts” (read none) as do the Asteroid people.
    Thank goodness at least some people still have the ability to listen to real facts and present them.

  73. Celestial mechanics is probably the most thoroughly known part of astronomy. If NASA says TU24 will pass 560,000 km from the Earth at its closest point, I’m willing to believe NASA. The asteroid won’t do a damn thing to the Earth. It’s not a threat. Forget about it.

  74. This may be ad hominem

    It isn’t. Ad hominem is when you use something irrelevant about the author to attack his argument. Pointing out flaws in the video to attack the video is entirely legitimate. It’s saying that if, in one area it makes an egregious error, then it shouldn’t be trusted in another.

    Personally, I was disappointed, because I was waiting for a really tortuous argument as to why 2007 TU24 is a reason to vote for Ron Paul, and it just didn’t come.

  75. Tom

    Chip-
    Discoveries like this happen every day. If you look at the website I linked to earlier, you’d see that one asteroid is highlighted in green. The chances of that asteroid hitting Earth is not zero, hence the coloring. Reporting on each of these wouldn’t work.

    Changing theories on the cutting edge of physics (I believe you cited black holes) has nothing to do with applying the laws of gravity in a repeatable fashion, as has been done with TU24 and thousands of other asteroid discoveries.

  76. JeffS

    Chip: “My point is quite vivid! If it’s nothing, why don’t they tell us it’s nothing?”

    Transcript from the network news….

    …opening theme music…

    Good evening. Here’s what’s not happening in our world tonight.

    - The U.S. Government will not be handing out free $100 bills at post offices.
    - The earth will not be impacted by asteroid 2007 TU24.
    - In weather, it will not be 105 F anywhere in Antarctica.
    - And in sports, the Miami Dolphins will not be going to Super Bowl XLII.

    Except to cover everything that’s not happening, it would be an awfully long show.

    Your point may be vivid, but it’s not valid.

  77. Gary Mcleod

    With regard to the ‘electric universe’ rubbish, I was dismayed and angered to find on the video comments under the youtube vid below someone trying to pass themself off as ‘BadAstronomer’ and ‘TheBad Astonomr’ posting idiotic comments to appear that he is Phil. I have posted a warning about this fraudulent misapropriation of identity under his comment. These nutters will stop at nothing to try and make their moronic lies sound almost plausible to the scientifically illiterate.

    http://uk.youtube.com/comment_servlet?all_comments&v=wkq3oUXUrfQ

  78. Michelle

    Ouh, 500 bucks at stake? Now this is getting good!

    I can’t WAIT to see what kind of idiocy you will make up to keep your cash, boy. Come on BA, take him up on the bet!

  79. Chip

    What’s up with the bashing around here? Name calling and the likes. Needless to say; it’s a little odd. Is it a symptom of some childhood trauma to react this way to those who oppose your views?

    With that attitude how are any of us ever to learn anything?

  80. Michael Lonergan

    This video is now making the rounds on Facebook. Ughhhhhhhhhhhh

  81. Jarrod Henry

    I think you’ve been throughly trounced, Chip, but, I’ll continue to chime in.

    Yes, it’s going at 21,000 MPH. We’re going at 67,000 MPH. And we’re going in two different paths.

    You say 21,000 mph as if we were standing still.. or on the same path, or worse, coming right towards the asteroid.

    But we’re not, and it’s not.

    It’s a non-event. Just like the NEO that came closer a few days ago. It’ll be okay.

    Welcome to the world of Science, Chip. Where we put away the “Chicken Little” complex and pull out the mathematics.

  82. tu24 — Nothing happens that day, for any reason? If you want to bet they’ll hit the Earth, I’ll take that bet right now — they damn well will not — but with your vague “no effects,” there could be a Richter 2.5 Earthquake in Somalia that day and you’d say the asteroid did it. Want to appoint some neutral third party as a judge? Say, a guy with a degree in physics? (And I don’t mean Jack Sarfatti or Tom van Flandern.)

  83. Michelle

    @Chip: It’s because you guys are so stuck in your fancy world of “look, a big rock IT’S BAD SCIENTISTS ARE IN COHORTS WITH GOVERNMENT BAD BAD hell will break loose OH MY GOD WE’RE GONNA DIE must post on youtube i have no life GIVE ME COFFEE i know more about science than them i know the orbit is wrong the asteroid will zap us and will eat your babies” that we just know it’s better to just say what we think of you coots.

    By the way, no one tried to COVER THE EVIL ASTEROID UP. I mean, I visit Spaceweather.com and they display the close passes down there. Here it is since a good while: TU24, 1,0 LD, 400m. There’s a few close calls like that. It’s neat.

    Did you guys freak out about 2008 AF3? It passed us on january 13 at the same distance. Just 23 meters though. Not enough for earthquakes? And what about that other big rock that passes us frequently at 1,0 LD? What’s that rock’s size again… I think it’s something like 3476 km… It’s ONE BIG meanie right there. I think the name for it is Luna or Lune or Moon. Must be horrible earthquakes that evil thing does uh?

  84. Michelle

    Oh woops! I meant TU24 1,4 LD. Haha.

  85. alfaniner

    Well, at least this particular nonsense can only go for a week or so. After that, the point is moot.

    Either way…

  86. Mark Hansen

    Chip,
    You whine about name calling yet because people say that TU24 will be a non-event, you call them blowhards. Does the proverb about people in glass houses ring a bell?

  87. Jarrod Henry

    I wish, Alfaniner.

    In a week, they’ll be talking about how we used some secret space weapon to avoid doom, or how it did land somewhere , but it was covered up through strategic press releases and governmental blocking.

  88. Chip

    Michelle…you poor poor girl! Now now, here here!

    If you could post the locations where I said any of that, it would be much appreciated.

    Michelle…Who is “you guys”? If you are referring to me, I only represent myself. There are no “others” with me.

    I will more than assure you that I have read a minimum of 5 times more than you have on this particular subject.

    Didn’t your mommy teach you that angry people are only angry because they lack the communication skills and the vocabulary to necessary to properly express them selves? On second thought maybe you should just bite your lip. The English language has turned out to be the pie in the sky that was a little too high for you dear. Nice sentence structure…

  89. Chip

    Mark,

    It appears that you have missed the portion of the conversation regarding who struck the first blow in your little dance of words. I recall Richard calling me a “bonehead” right off the bat.

    My visit here today has cast light upon all of you who cannot have a real conversation with another individual regarding anything that you do not agree with. Behavior like this reeks of everything that I have been called today.

    Ironic in a way, that this website is called “Bad Astronomy”. Primarily because I tend to agree…

  90. In other words, if there’s a thunderstorm anywhere on Earth on the 29th, it will obviously be the fault of the asteroid?

  91. Ibeechu

    Chip, to think that it’s possible to have an intelligent argument about whether or not TU24 will harm the Earth is like saying it’s possible to have an intelligent argument that the Earth is flat. You just can’t. It’s not like we picked this stance arbitrarily and are now defending it arbitrarily. We picked this stance because it’s right. We have evidence and science on our side. Your side just has, well, non-science fearmongers.

  92. Law Mom

    So the scientists have taken “gravity” into account? Well, gravity is just a theory. We should just pray for the asteroid to miss us.

  93. Inertially Guided

    Define Irony: an advertisement/link for http://WWW.TU24.org on the BA Blog Page.

    Define Bad Astronomy: Just click the aforementioned link.

  94. alfaniner

    …”In other words, if there’s a thunderstorm anywhere on Earth on the 29th, it will obviously be the fault of the asteroid?”…

    Don’t forget — it could be the 29th, 30th, 31st, or the 1st.

  95. Michelle

    I’m sorry Chip. I guess the bad and naughty girl I am was a bit annoyed by comments such as …

    “It also just so happens to be the factor that makes one ponder the possibilities while considering that the object will be 353,400 miles from the Earth itself.

    353,400 in not a great distance for something traveling at 21,000 MPH.

    Especially with “Astronomers” changing their official opine on everything from the Big bang to Black holes every week. When they speak: we might as well be listening to the weather man….”

    What you seem to say is that “Astronomers” (Guess that people who knows more than you and me about astronomical bodies don’t deserve an official title by your standards) are not to be trusted to calculate something like an orbit. When it’s basically the… well, the most BASIC job there is in astronomy. If you wanna know where a body will be, you’ll learn to calculate the orbit. It takes a few observations to nail it right, but from what I know they pretty much nail it down pretty accurately.

    Also, look at yourself going “It’s not a great distance for something traveling at 21, 000 mph” and “we might as well be listening to the weather man”

    You know, the only reason I would say something like that in such a discussion is when I think that we might get hit by that asteroid beyond the moon. Or that it will do some other nonsense like the video guy thinks.

    I’m certain you might have read more than me on the subject. Now I wonder… WHAT have you read? Nonsense or real material? It sounds to me like you might be a little bit of a confused man.

    I’m very firm in my belief that we won’t be affected in ANY WAY by this asteroid. Oh wait, what am I saying? I meant I’m extremely 100% sure of the ABSOLUTE FACT we won’t be affected in ANY WAY by this asteroid. People that knows more than me in orbit calculations proved so. And I know THEY don’t speculate anything silly about it. Or post paranoid videos on youtube.

  96. Chip

    Michelle,

    I am happy that you have decided to have a real conversation about the subject. As a matter of fact I agree with you. The object will more than likely pass, and nothing will occur. Then, we can delve back into myopia and continue our self indulgent ignoramus lifestyles and wait for the next NEO to scare the wits out of the uninformed!

    The reason why I have decided to take the plight on opposition of most opinions argumentatively is because: this way the public will become more informed. I could argue for your position and say that most of this fear that exists is pointless, and nonsensical. And, could (if overly stressed) cause the “cry wolf” scenario. However, in the light of fear we (as humans) tend to get our barings straight. What I’m getting at is that the more informed the public are, the more we might be able to nationally spend fiscally on projects that detect N.E.O.’s! The more conversation, the more un-nerved and curious folks become, and eventually (probably not anytime soon) through this process more folks will realize that if we are willing to blow 800 billion dollars in an attempt to “convert Muslims”, we should be willing to spend much more than we currently do searching for the real threats rather than the fictional ones! It may be a strange way to force the issue, but with my (as you have all pointed out so kindly) “limited” intellect I have only derived at one conclusion: debate!

  97. Gary Ansorge

    Chip: Have you ever tried to catch a ball? DO you even know how you do the intricate calculations required to ensure your hand meets the object, or how you calculate where the ball will be? Ballistic calculation as a science has been around at least since the invention of the cannon and in fact is the basis for our being able to move at all, though the neural processes are ancient.

    Calculating the future position of an asteroid requires knowing where it is right now(look in a telescope) and where it was some (defined)time ago. This gives the velocity(direction and speed). Knowing our postion (earth) and our velocity allows us to determine if we can catch the ball,,,er,,,asteroid.

    Fortunately, it’s out of the park,,,

    GAry 7
    PS: Afraid I can’t simplify it any more than that Chip,,,

  98. Chip

    Goldstone observations are scheduled on January 23 (tomorrow) and Arecibo observations are scheduled on January 27-28 and February 1-4.

    We’ll see…

  99. On another topic, what caused the Tunguska object to explode? It wasn’t a ball of ammonium nitrate, after all (nor antimatter, nor an ailen spaceship) So why should it go boom! at all? Was the mechanism a hypersonic shock wave due to striking the atmosphere, causing it to fragment?

    There might be people with more advanced physics degrees, but if I understand correctly the explosive mechanism is basically this…

    the object enters the atmosphere. If the object is of sufficient size, the leading side will experience rapid deceleration as it slams into enough of of the atmosphere. The trailing side is, effectively, not wearing its seat belt and inertia keeps it moving the same speed it was before the front suddenly decelerated. It’s really not all that different than “why does a car crunch up when it hits a wall”, only the “wall” in this case is the thickening atmosphere, and the car is doing 15 km/s.

    In any case, the resulting stress explodes the object.

    If my understanding of this is incorrect, I hope someone can enlighten me.

  100. I can debunk it for you right now.

    Charge has been measurable by instruments for literally hundreds of years. No large body has ever been detected with a net electric charge, and it’s not like there’s a shortage of charge detecting instruments available and in use at any given time.

    If large bodies aren’t charged, the whole electric universe hypothesis comes apart.

    This is not to say that there aren’t free charged particles floating around in, say, the earth… but it means that God didn’t rub the earth on his head and try to stick us to the firmament like a balloon if you catch my meaning.

  101. Tom

    Not that it will change anyone’s opinion, but there’s an update on the visibility of this asteroid on the NEO web page:

    http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news157.html

    According to the post, an asteroid this size passes this close every 5 years or so.

  102. Forget TU24. That’s nothing compared to what’s coming in the next three weeks. And, yes, astronomers around the world know about it, but have been silent. Why is that?

    There is an object MUCH LARGER than TU24 that will threaten our planet in mere days. In fact, this object is larger and more massive than any known asteroid. It will cross Earth’s orbit on January 30th (about a week from now), much closer than TU24. When it crosses Earth’s orbit, it will be heading almost straight toward the Sun. However, this massive object will pass SO CLOSE to the Earth, that it will slingshot around, reverse course, and start heading away from the Sun, crossing Earth’s orbit YET AGAIN, a mere two weeks later, on February 13th!

    That’s two Earth orbit crossings by the same object, more massive than any asteroid, in two weeks! If that’s not a newsworthy event in astronomy, I don’t know what is!

    And if you don’t think that a massive object whipping close enough to Earth to reverse course in two weeks’ time would have consequences for our planet, think again. Earthquakes and firestorms? Bah! Those are small potatoes for small objects like the Tunguska Tennis Ball. When this massive object whips around the Earth in the next three weeks, it will be close enough to lift ALL OF THE EARTH’S OCEANS up toward the sky! No shoreline will be able to escape the relentless tidal waves. (And I mean that in the most literal sense.) And these won’t be just waves that hit and then disappear. As this thing whips around the Earth, the amount of water being mobilized will be so massive that entire shoreline ecosystems will be submerged for hours at a time, multiple times a day!

    Instead of causing localized catastrophes like earthquakes and firestorms, this object will be so massive and so close that it will act on the entire planet, actually slowing down the Earth’s rotation, lengthening the day, and causing us to eventually have to adjust our clocks to compensate!

    Don’t believe me? Then go outside and take a look for yourself tonight. That’s right, you can see this object tonight. And leave your telescopes behind. You won’t need them. Just a few days ago, it was virtually invisible to the naked eye. But it’s moving through the sky so fast that tonight, astronomers (at least those who are not in on the conspiracy of silence) predict that this object falling toward the Earth is already the brightest object in the night-time sky. At midnight tonight, look between the zenith and due-South on the horizon, and you should be able to easily distinguish this massive object from a star, or even a planet. This object will be so bright tonight that even people in some light-polluted cities should be able to see it. Yes, that’s how big and close it is.

    The shameful part of all this is that Phil knows about this, and has said nothing to warn us. Flame me if you want to, but I suggest you challenge Phil to address my assertions. Because I speak the truth, he will either remain silent (like most astronomers in the conspiracy), or, if he has any integrity (and I believe he does), then he will corroborate all my assertions.

    So what’ll it be Phil? Am I right? Or am I a lunatic?

    (Not that those two are necessarily mutually exclusive!)

  103. Gary Mcleod

    Earl’s TV, How about a $1,000 bet that you will be proved totally wrong? On February 14th, if this object you imagine does not materialise, would you be honest enough to pay up and retract your bogus claims? No, you will not. I’ve seen off many hoaxers like you and Nancy Leider. You are a right lunatic.

  104. David B

    I never posted anything to this website before, or any website, really, but I just have to comment on the last two posts, and of course, to stay on topic, mention that it’s rather silly to worry about Tu24.

    Really, I thought a asteroid has to be about 2 miles wide to kill off all life anyway? A chunk of rock the size of the Sears Tower will probably at most, if it hit the earth, destroy a good sized amount of Chicago. :) Which is to say, if it were to hit in say Arizona, no one would notice. :) I could be horribly wrong of course, I do have Autism after all.

    Now, the previous posts…Gary, the object Eric was talking about, is there right this moment, but it most likely will stay where it is for at least another 500 million years. :) It’s called the moon. Yep, his post was hopefully sarcastic. Otherwise I no longer have faith in humanity. Sorry, tangent.

    The biggest problem the earth will ever face is that large rock that is slowly running away from the earth. The moon, I mean. I hope you all won’t freak out though when you find the Moon will someday stop the rotation of the earth, or something equally as bad. I think that’s one of the effects. Yeah, I’m not a smart person per se.

    David, hoping this isn’t bad manners to post here

  105. Tom

    There may be some confusion about charging, since spacecraft do get charged differentially and discharge to other components on the same spacecraft. A spacecraft orbiting the Earth is a bit different than a large body (planet, asteroid, etc) orbiting the sun, both in makeup and environment.

  106. nostrademus

    We will see library mouse

  107. Egaeus

    I just looked up the electrical universe theory. I thought it would be about possibly a buildup of net charge on everyting or something that causes the accelerating expansion of the universe or something equally normal-sounding, if not completely wrong.

    But then I googled it. Son of FSM on a freaking fork! Stars aren’t powered by fission, they’re intersections of electrical filaments and are actually giant electrodes!? “The age of stars and stellar evolution is an elaborate fiction!” Stars occasionally “give birth by electrical fissioning” to companion stars and gas giants. Years and years of school in Electrical Engineering by The Establishment and I never once even heard of such a phenomenon as “electrical fissioning.” There must be a conspiracy!

    And then there are the logical fallacies and outright lying and misrepresentation of accepted science. No wonder these people are dismissed out of hand. I love how they say that “Most revolutions in science have come from people who taught themselves outside the academic system and were not constrained by the fallacies and fashions of the day,” but previously they tried to discredit those same revolutions by saying that “The Electric Universe is based more on observations and experiment than abstract theory,” which is completely wrong (except maybe for string theory), and invalidates the first point if it wasn’t.

    I could go on, but I won’t. It’s really not worth it.

  108. Van Rijn

    Gary, have you ever read the web pages that talk about the dangers of “dihydrogen monoxide” (water)? Earl’s post was no more serious than that. “Lunatic” was a hint. That suggests what object that is often seen in the sky . . . ?

  109. Egaeus

    Hey Gary, I’ll take that bet. Van Rijn, you just hush.

  110. zeb

    I suggest that since we’ll all be dead in a week, everyone who believes TU24 is going to hit should send me all their money. Why? Why not? It’s not like you can take it with you.

  111. Linzy

    LOL, what are they gonna do when it doesn’t hit?? Make an excuse?

    I bet they’ll disappear. ;)

  112. Gary, you asked if I would be honest enough to pay up if I’m wrong. I turn the question to you and ask: will you pay up if I am right? Egaeus has seen the light (no doubt, at albedo 0.08) and taken you up on your bet. Let me know how that works out for you.

    Meanwhile, Phil has obviously chosen not to respond to my unchallenged assertions. Phil’s conspicuous silence on this issue indicates to me that he is part of the establishment’s conspiracy of silence concerning this massive object. He is obviously governed by the dark forces of NASA, dictated to by the evil lords of the International Astronomical Society, possibly forced into silence under threat of atomic wedgie.

    Or maybe he’s just asleep. It’s hard to tell.

  113. No shoreline will be able to escape the relentless tidal waves.

    Some amphidromic points will, however.

  114. David B, I somehow missed seeing your post before my last response. You say you’re not smart (per se), but I must disagree on the basis that you seem to know a lot, and on the basis that you sure figured me out in a hurry. :) And you’re right: the Moon is indeed robbing the Earth of its angular momentum, moving farther away as it slows the Earth down. Unfortunately, I’m in no position to reward you for your cleverness, but, if I may suggest, it might not hurt to hit Gary up for $1000. ;)

    >Some amphidromic points will, however.

    Oh, great! Now I have to go buy a dictionary!

  115. Haven’t you heard about the new research which notes that the “not”, “no”, “don’t”, “doesn’t” parts of messages just drop out of memory. In one week people will recall this as:

    asteroid 2007 TU24 is danger to Earth, according to Bad Astronomy Blog.

    You could echo this point around, it would just serve to be even more conclusive.

  116. Mike J.

    TU24dotORG … dude I hate to say it, but you really stepped in it with this asteroid causing damage claim…

    take it from me… the guy who “broke” the Eris and Dysnomia conspiracy story…

    funny thing, is that Phil Plait has a way with being rude to the people he disagrees with… he follows the richard dawkins rule of thumb… i.e. you don’t just have to disagree, you also have to be jerk when conveying your disagreement.

    But let me play devils advocate with TU24dotOrg, and ask everyone else in this forum… what if Phil Plait, and the others in this forum are wrong?

    Well… since I know the people in here are wrong on a myriad of subjects.. I think I’ll just go to the supermarket and buy an extra 24 pack of aquafina and double up on my canned goods.

    gee, thanks tu24dotorg, thanks for adding another ‘potential’ problem to my back burner… i’ve already got terrorism, finances, stock market capitulation, and neo-darwinism to worry about

  117. mike

    the scary part is how many people believed it…..like its full of so much carp….

  118. Dragonlord Warlock

    Right On!!!

    People can be such idiots, and most of it is because they too lazy to follow real science and instead listen to babble from idiots. I had to try to explain such things to my mother who listen to this kind of garbage and quickly fall for all this doomsday crap. And she believes what they say as if it is science…. So I have to explain to her that what they say is not science and explain what real science says about it.

    The fact is these doomsayers are targeting those who cannot differentiate fact from fiction when it comes to science. I do not understand why they want people to live in fear for false reasons, maybe they get a sense of power from it. If so then they are sick puppies…

  119. Mutant Jedi

    Okay. I’m going to sound like a conspiracy nut…. :)

    But who is behind tu24 dot org? When this blog first game out, the site was just forum. Now he’s got more contact plus a link back to Bad Astronomy as well as links to NASA, NEO and Goldstone.

    When I first did a whois on the domain, I got the owner to be David Thornton, Palladium Group in Hong Kong but with a Olympia, WA phone number. Google doesn’t show anything specific about such a person/company.

    I left it at that until I was chatting with my son. We were laughing with an xkcd webcomic, http://xkcd.com/202/, when I thought I’d show him the tu24 video. 38995 views. Favored 141 times. 169 comments. 6 honors. He’s getting a lot of plays from similar type of sites. This guy is getting some good action with his video.

    Curious, I did another whois on the domain. He changed it. Now it’s namecheap.com that holds it. This is a way for the owner to be anonymous.

    My question to my son was why, what is the upside for this guy? He doesn’t sell ads yet on his site. How is this monetized? My hypothesis is this: He is collecting emails of people who are easily scammed. My son figures he’s in it for the fame; the guy gets a kick out of kicking the hornet’s nest.

  120. Will it be visible though. I’d like to catch a glimpse of it if possible.

  121. Holy cow!! I had thought Earl’s TV, but darned if he wasn’t right! The object IS there, and it’s huge! Big enough, in fact, that NASA could pretend to land people on it!
    Plus, it has the ability to turn some people into werewolves once a month.

  122. So “we don’t know the ‘spectral class’ of this asteroid”, eh?

    I wonder how bigscience has cocked-up so badly on this one, in failing to apply a classification system for stellar objects to, er, an asteroid.

  123. Egaeus

    Wow, an apparent actual, human spammer. And here I was thinking that all that was left were the automated robots that pasted part of the text of the article (or comments) and put the URL in the name.

  124. Nigel Depledge

    Chip said:
    “Richard, if you have the more accurate position on this subject; why have I not heard anything from NASA via the news about it? They were talking big about the Mars strike possibility! And, they always say “Whew, that was a close one!” after the fact!

    On there own website they state that “This is the closest NEO until 2027? and no news…

    If I saw what you were saying on MSNBC, CNN, or even FAUX I would blow it off…but I haven’t seen it anywhere!

    All I have seen is a bunch of blowhards telling us it’s a Non-Issue!

    My point is quite vivid! If it’s nothing, why don’t they tell us it’s nothing?”

    Chip, I shall assume you are sincere here and not simply pulling our collective chain.

    The meteoroid that at one point had a 4% chance of hitting Mars was actually thought to have a realistic chance of hitting Mars, which would have been a very interesting and exciting event fot the astronomy community.

    TU24 has no chance of impacting on Earth this time around. It is being called a non-issue because it is not an issue. It is not in the headlines because “nothing is expected to happen” is not a headline. How the hell are they supposed to put out a press release that says, essentially, that nothing will happen?!?

    The scare merchants like TU24dotORG are just making stuff up to turn a non-issue into an issue.

  125. The fun part of “context sensitive ads”. This is what I saw for your reference to “tu24-dot-org” and “more inflated than Pamela Anderson”:

    http://www.hvcomputer.com/temp/bablog-tu24.png

  126. Nigel Depledge

    Jim said:
    “So, when are you going to take on the fear mongers who are leading the Global warming / Climate change religion?
    They have nearly as many “facts” (read none) as do the Asteroid people.
    Thank goodness at least some people still have the ability to listen to real facts and present them.”

    Just for the record, Jim, you are talking nonsense. Global warming is happening now. There are data from all over the planet that confirm this. It is at least partly our fault. We can do something about it. Even if the science (and, yes, it is supported by a lot of science) is wrong, what is the harm in being more efficient in our use of energy, and emitting fewer greenhouse gasses?

  127. Piss posts:

    [[Chip ur a douche and u have a vagina and i want to pee in ur moms butt]]

    Intelligent, thoughtful commentary is a real asset to the blog.

  128. Jim posts:

    [[So, when are you going to take on the fear mongers who are leading the Global warming / Climate change religion?
    They have nearly as many “facts” (read none) as do the Asteroid people.
    ]]

    Jim, I’m just guessing here, without ever having met you. But I’ll bet you couldn’t write down the equation of radiative transfer to save your life.

  129. Earl’s TV — Wonderful post. I was taking it seriously for a moment, wondering if you had come from TU24.org’s people, and then it slowly began to dawn on me what you were doing. Thanks for posting.

  130. Earl’s TV:

    You have me. Everything you said is absolutely true. I would be ashamed at not mentioning this object, but that’s only because it’s not that big a deal, compared to THE REAL DESTRUCTIVE FORCE in the solar system.

    There is ANOTHER OBJECT nearby that is so huge and so massive that it tosses the Earth around like a child’s plaything. The Earth’s path through space is constantly changing, constantly accelerated due to THE OTHER. Not only that, but it is so destructive that if we got too close to it we would literally VAPORIZE!

    Not only that, but it appears to move substantially across the sky. Why, I can see it clear as day right now, but last night it was NOWHERE TO BE SEEN.

    And in this case we truly are MAGNETICALLY CONNECTED to THE OTHER. Streams of plasma BURST from it, and they wreak havoc on the Earth. DEADLY STREAMS of charged subatomic particles slam into us, and would be lethal if you were exposed to them in space. And I hear the first magnetic activity on THE OTHER is now starting up once again…

    ——————————————————————————-

    See how easy it is to make up garbage and scare people? And in my case (and Earl’s TV too) we can claim that what we are saying is absolutely correct, as opposed to this asteroid nonsense.

  131. Mencial

    TU23dotORG, the video is crap, but the music is awesome! care to share with us where you found it? (Caetano Veloso, I would say)

  132. I will go one further than my previous offer of $500 wager… I will up it to $5,000, donated to the charity of Mr. BA’s choosing shall the following occur:

    -It will not be speculated in the mainstream media in January or February, 2008, that TU24 had an electric or electromagnetic influence on the Earth, and WD5 had none on Mars. (The premise of the video and website)

    -TU24′s and WD5′s effects on the magnetosphere of the Earth and Mars, respectively, will not be studied by any univeristy-affiliated scientist

    If one of the above DOES occur before March 1, 2008, then Mr. Plait agrees to dismantle the Badastronomy.com website within 30 days and not port all or any part of it it to another website.

    Of course, the details can be worked out if Mr. Plait agrees to the contest. I will even make a $xxx good-faith deposit to show my sincerity.

    TU24.org does *NOT* make the claim that there will be dire effects of TU24 passing within Earth’s magnetosphere. I’m not the only one getting my ‘facts’ mixed up. Neither have I claimed that the asteroid will impact with Earth.

    Are we game?

  133. Rob

    Chip – I think you may be confusing two separate issues: the distance of closest approach of an object and its collision probability. The asteroid that was a possible Mars impactor was in the news not because it was going to pass close to Mars but because it had a non-negligible probability (based on observations at the time) of hitting it. As more observations were made, the error circle for where it might end up got smaller and it ended up that it was going to miss Mars. At which point, it wasn’t news anymore – it’s a non-event.

    TU24 is similar. Astronomers can calculate where it is going and know that it’s going to approach fairly close. That’s scientifically interesting as it means that observations can be made with a higher physical resolution, but it doesn’t make it particularly dangerous or news-worthy. The chance of this having an effect on the Earth are zero, thus no news. I

    n fact, as it gives us an opportunity to make good observations of an asteroid it will increase our knowledge of what these things are like and thus help with studies of methods of deflecting them should one be found that is actually on course to hit us. From that point of view, TU24 is, far from being a menace, actually beneficial to the Earth.

  134. APD

    Uh… TU… Yes, you do say that will have dire effects. Or at least you drew the most attention to that “possibility”. You DIDN’T say that we’d almost definitely fine if it had a Negative charge like you seem to be saying now. What you did is fearmongering. You wanted a reaction, to get people to go to your site and check out your crackpot theories.

    By the way, there has been no NASA cover-up. It’s been out of the media because it’s threat level has dropped down to zero. And not only that, but the “Electric universe theory” is passed off as farce. I did some looking into it and I have to say, I agree with NASA.

    Anyway, Asteroids pass really close to the earth frequently. No interference. Ever. And anyway, I read up on the whole Negatively charged Asteroid thing, and it said that all Asteroids and Comets have a negative charge. So why TU24? It’s not the largest near us, nor the closest.

    Why would you do this?

  135. Thanks, Phil, for coming clean and admitting the truth. You’re the ONLY astronomer I know who has the integrity to speak the truth about what you have observed in the cosmos. I salute you. If your web site completely disappears and we never hear from you again, we all will know that you paid the ultimate price to cheese off the Establishment by finally breaking the Astronomers’ Code of Silence.

    Hey, wait just a darn minute! It’s not the Establishment that wants your web site disappeared! It’s the fearmonger!

    Go figure!

    Seriously, Phil, thanks for allowing me to be a guest here. There are a lot of great minds here, and it’s been a lot of fun.

    (Evolving Squid: I finally bought that dictionary. Your point regarding amphidromic points is spot on. Thanks.)

  136. I will bet TU24.org $500 trillion dollars that the Moon will not crash into the Earth tomorrow (24 January 2008). If he refuses this bet, he is a low, cringing beast, fit only for servitude. Furthermore, he must completely dismantle his video and any blog or web site he maintains. And he must do this whether he takes the bet or not. I, Prince Arcturus, command it!

  137. Chris

    I’ve been following posts on several forums about tu24.

    Why not take him up on his bet?

    Surely if tu24 passes and nothing happens or wd5 passes Mars and nothing out of the ordinary happens then no one will be discussing the ‘electromagnetic effects’ in the MSM and no university-affiliated scientist will be studying something that did not happen. Right?

    It’s not being talked about now and if nothing happens it won’t discussed then either.

    He seems sincere in his offer. Let him make his ‘good-faith’ deposit. Let’s say of $500.00 like his original bet.

    If you are very confident in your positions that no ‘plasma eletromagnetic effects’ can occur from a non-charged asteroid passing close to planetary bodies then you are sure to win the bet!

    And from what he said before he does not mean talk in the MSM of unusual weather or earthquakes but people discussing ‘electric or electromagnetic effects’ of the asteroid in the MSM.

    well why not take him up on it?

  138. Big Al

    Why the big TU24 flap? Illogical, but mildly entertaining. Time used reading these posts has been marginally better spent than perusing web porn. Thanks for the yuks.

  139. The problem is that TU can send a press release to a local paper and call it “mainstream media”, and win the bet.

    Would you take a $500 bet that I won’t chase my neighbour’s cat out of my yard? It’s the same thing.

  140. >Why not take him up on his bet?

    That wouldn’t be smart, not because he’s possibly right about what he says about TU24, but because you’d be allowing him to set the complete terms of the bet.

    The terms were:

    -It will not be speculated in the mainstream media in January or February, 2008, that TU24 had an electric or electromagnetic influence on the Earth, and WD5 had none on Mars. (The premise of the video and website)

    -TU24’s and WD5’s effects on the magnetosphere of the Earth and Mars, respectively, will not be studied by any univeristy-affiliated scientist

    I’d be willing to bet that he already knows about (and is ready to provide links to) a mainstream media outlet that has made the specified speculation.

    I’d also be willing to bet that he’s Googled in an attempt to find a university-funded study of asteroids’ effects on the magnetosphere of Earth and Mars. But even if he hasn’t found such a study, the terms were that he would win if just ONE of these things were to occur. And I have no faith in the mainstream media NOT to speculate about such stupid things.

  141. Chris

    He said we could work out the details.

    If what he claims is true it would be the main stream media. Major news networks. CNN, FOX, etc. not just some local paper.

    Would they take and publish a ‘press release’ about supposed electromagnetic effects from the asteroid coming from a nobody – especially if there were none?

    On the evening news they announce and discuss that Fred Smuzwaller thinks there were ‘electric’ effects coming from tu24′s passing – even though there were none.

    Doubt that would happen.

    I think what he implies is major network news having discussions about the asteroid’s electric effects. The MSM.

    Again you could work out the details.

    Take him up on it.

  142. Chris

    I’ve done google searches for news on tu24 and there are very few. And none discuss ‘electric plasma’ effects. Besides you could agree on what MSM it would be discussed on such as CNN, FOX, etc. If what he claims is true then surely it would be talked about. If on the other hand it is not it would not be discussed in the MSM anymore than it is now, which is nilch.

  143. I sincerely doubt BA would wager their entire precious website. It just shows that they wouldn’t stand by their ‘debunking’.

    “What if we’re wrong, even a little?” Heh. Then they wouldn’t be laughing so hard.

    I don’t mind being wrong. How about you?

  144. BP Nosnevel

    You said: “…doomcryers are, in my opinion, among the lowest form of life. If they’re conmen (or pranksters) then they’re a particularly fetid brand of evil, and if they’re honest, they’re not trying very hard to educate themselves on reality (yet going to a lot more trouble to make YouTube videos about it). A third kind, of course, may be honest people with mental problems, and so in my opinion are worthy of our sympathy.”

    Please take on the AGW (man-made global warming) doomcryers. They took bits and pieces of factual information and turned it into a new cult. Is the Earth warming? Of course it is. There is a cycle of hundreds of thousands of years of cooling followed by a short period of warming. We are in a warming period right now. Whoop-dee-doo. In the 1970′s the doomcryers were warning us about global cooling and said the next ice age was upon us. All this while the CO2 concentration was rising? Eh? CO2 is an incredibly weak insulating gas and really cannot impact the temperature of the Earth by more then .5 degrees C. We’re well into that .5 C right now. There has been no increase in warming in the last 10 years. Eh again? These people need to become educated on the realities and the data from ice cores to have a beginning understanding of how all of this data is related.

    In your words, the AWG promoters are “… not trying very hard to educate themselves on reality” If they did educate themselves, they would understand the truth, which might bruise their preconceived notions about who they should listen to. Study and learn, create informed opinions and make informed decisions.

    Enjoy!

  145. Chris

    BP Nosnevel,

    What does any of that have to do with tu24?

  146. APD

    You say “debunking” sarcastically. Any counter-arguments? What about your own hypocrisy? The fact that even if the electric universe theory were true, it would mean that ALL comets/Asteroids are negatively charged? And that many, just as large, have come closer?

    Mind if I ask what you are expecting to happen exactly? Or why and how you came to this conclusion?

  147. Gary Mcleod

    EarlsTV, Sorry about the rant earlier, I didn’t really think about what you claimed and I completely fell for your joke hook, line and sinker! Nice one. Boy, do I feel totally stupid. *crawls under rock and committs hari-lobotomy*

  148. Chris

    Why get all worked up?

    Your sure he is wrong – right?

    No one is going to change sides here. Put your money where your mouths are.

    Settle on an agreement for the bet and let the laws of the universe decide who is right and who is wrong.

    Why argue? call each other names? insult? reach an agreement on the bet.

    And don’t say it can’t be done without trying it first.

    - Even without a bet we will all know who is right after the event.

  149. JoshH

    “Personally, I was disappointed, because I was waiting for a really tortuous argument as to why 2007 TU24 is a reason to vote for Ron Paul, and it just didn’t come.”

    -Me too. I was expecting something similar?

  150. APD

    That’s not what I’m so annoyed about, at least. It’s the fearmongering. He lures people in by saying how bad it is, then saying that he really only expects a very minor impact on the magnetosphere. I’m just wondering why he would make a video that he knew would cause panic, if he knew the effects would be minor even if he was right. And even if he is, that video was full of terrible science.

    BTW the bet is an idiotic idea no matter who’s right.

  151. cuatrobits

    I have a few issues with TU24′s bet.

    Number one: its is never a good idea to let the media decide on a science issue. The media is there to make money by improving ratings, no matter how, it will speculate on ANYTHING. Just look at the Jesus on a grilled cheese sandwich phenomenon.

    Number two: a ‘scientist affiliated with a university’ could mean anything. Just for laughs, I asked a scientist friend of mine affiliated with the Universidad de Guadalajara if he would be willing to study the effects of TU24 (the asteroid) on the earth’s magnetosphere. He agreed, as long as it does not take more than 2 or 3 hours, does not cost more than $10, and I bring the beer. Never mind he is a biologist.

    Number three: If the media reported that a university affiliated scientist disproved any electromagnetic effect on earth of the kind mentioned in the video, would TU24 still win?

    TU24, could you restate the terms of your bet in a more scientific manner? What is your hypotesis? How could it be tested with the time and resources available? Could you suggest some third parties to review the process and results? Thanks.

  152. Gary, it’s all in good fun! :) Thanks for being such a good sport. Don’t ever apologize for you rant. Given what you thought I was asserting, it was a very well-placed and perfectly reasonable rant, indeed. That’s nothing to be timid about.

    About the bet: I call baloney. The posturing doesn’t match the terms. The stated terms have nothing to do with who is right, who is wrong, or how far anyone is willing to go in order to back one’s own debunking. The bet doesn’t even have anything to do with debunking. Instead, the stated terms are (effectively) limited to what will or will not appear in the media. What does that have to do with anything about the true nature of the asteroid?

    Me: “I say the sky is green”

    You: “Nuh uh, it’s blue.”

    Me: “Wanna bet? If I win I get your house. If you win, you get my dog.”

    You: “Sure, I’ll bet.”

    Me: “Okay, then. If a coyote howls somewhere tonight, then I win!”

    You: “What? No way!”

    Me: “So you’re too chicken to take the bet, and you admit I’m right, then!”

    Again I say: boloney.

  153. Chris

    Maybe – he believes, however misguided he may be, that plasma discharge effects could cause some problems. That there would be enough of an effect to make it to the news. And he believes it enough he is willing to lay his money on the line to prove his conviction.

    You say fearmongering, maybe he really believes what he says and wants to warn people.

    Maybe he is wrong. Maybe it is bad science.

    Maybe there is some truth to the electric plasma theory of the universe.

    The bet was not ‘idiotic’ and I believe it was offered to prove his conviction in his theory/belief.

    Do you have that kind of conviction or faith in your knowledge that there is no plasma electric effects happening in the universe?

    Have you looked into the electric universe theory?

    And why really is the bet idiotic but arguing away in this forum not?

    Personally I’ve already wasted too much time here reading all this. I have no dog in this fight. I just heard about tu24 and looked into it a little. Read this forum and thought his offer to a bet sincere – showing that he believes what he says.

  154. Jhonnut

    What if, i just say what if, it’s passing shifts the movement of the earth by, let’s say, 1 milisecond? What if it accelerates the moon’s “break-up” with earth by another 5 cms a year, or more, 4 another example?
    This is a threat in many ways… We will, at least, have a huge tsunami somwhere because of it, so, these beeing said, you determine me to put you two guys in the same boat… One exagerates it, the other exageratly denies it… It’s just like global warming all over again… There will be some side effects, no doubt about it… The “weight” of those effects is hard to comprehend, since NASA DIDN’T have time to accurately calculate it’s trajectory ;) Three months is a short road, you need at least a few years to be accurate… Or, if they lied about knowing of it, that’s even more worrying…
    So shut your pieholes, both of you, and tell it like it is…
    Ofcourse we don’t want to create panic… At least we will go in peace :p

  155. Rachel

    I’m just curious, I originally found out about this asteroid while browsing conspiracy forums on a slow, boring night and it honestly did alarm me when I Googled the asteroid’s name and came up with the TU24.org site.

    Then I found Bad Astronomy and your articles have made me feel quite a bit better, however I still feel very uneasy about this…specifically some of the things others at that forum have pointed out:

    1) How come if you do a news search for “TU24″ or “Asteroid” not a whole lot comes up? I recall back in 2004 when there was an asteroid that made a close approach it was on the news. Hell even when there’s a meteor shower it’s on the news. So why isn’t anybody talking about this?

    2) Something about how NASA’s equipment is observing it on Jan 27th-28th, and beginning again on Feb 1st, but not on the actual day that it’s going to be approaching? Isn’t that a little strange? Or could you explain why this may be. I know hardly anything about astronomy, NASA, and asteroids (as I would imagine most of these forum participants don’t either) so is this just a completely normal thing, for NASA observing the approach and decent but not while the asteroid is actually closest? Why would this be?

    3) What about all of the people saying earth could pull it in with it’s gravity?

    4) Another theory was that it could destroy all of our satellites?

    I am getting so worked up about this and terrified, I realize that I shouldn’t even be reading conspiracy threads, it surely doesn’t help anything. Though the more I read to try to calm myself down the more terrified I get, yours is the only site I can find that says there’s absolutely nothing to worry about. There are hundreds of doomsday threads/pages/etc. And there are a few articles that are indifferent.

    I really hope that you or somebody could be kind enough to answer my questions and put me at ease.

  156. L Fuller

    “1) How come if you do a news search for “TU24? or “Asteroid” not a whole lot comes up? I recall back in 2004 when there was an asteroid that made a close approach it was on the news. Hell even when there’s a meteor shower it’s on the news. So why isn’t anybody talking about this?”

    Meteor showers are usually associated with a comet that passed through the area and are marvelous times to observe an often spectacular “light show” as the small remnants of the comet burn up in the atmosphere. An asteroid that has a zero percent chance of collision with the earth is not a terribly news worthy event in comparison.

    “2) Something about how NASA’s equipment is observing it on Jan 27th-28th, and beginning again on Feb 1st, but not on the actual day that it’s going to be approaching? Isn’t that a little strange? Or could you explain why this may be. I know hardly anything about astronomy, NASA, and asteroids (as I would imagine most of these forum participants don’t either) so is this just a completely normal thing, for NASA observing the approach and decent but not while the asteroid is actually closest? Why would this be?”

    Where do you find the information that NASA, specifically, will be observing the asteroid these dates and no other? And even if NASA doesn’t observe it during this time, someone will be and sharing results with NASA.

    “3) What about all of the people saying earth could pull it in with it’s gravity?”

    Don’t overestimate the pull of the earth on such a small object that far from the earth’s mass that is travelling so fast… it is far beyond even the orbit of the moon. Every object exerts a gravitational pull on every other. If somebody shot a bullet past my skull and the trajectory would take it 2 inches from my skull, the gravitational pull of my head on the bullet would be negligible and would not pull the bullet into my skull. Gravity is not magic. It follows pretty straight forward rules and scientists know these rules very, very well.

    “4) Another theory was that it could destroy all of our satellites?”

    Again, too far away to physically destroy our satellites, and even asteroids that have passed within the moon’s orbit have had no effect on our satellite system. There is nothing different about TU 24 that will change this.

    Sleep in peace.

  157. ScottB

    TU24, I’m curious to know what your background in astronomy or physics is? There’s a feeling (which I’ll admit I share) amongst most people here that you have no background at all in any related field, that you’ve simply wandered around and read only those astronomy-related articles that fit your view of how things work and ignored the rest. Would you mind sharing some of your astronomy history?

    Personally I put you in the same basket as 9-11 crackpot conspiracy theorists and alien abduction researchers, but I’d be happy for you to prove me wrong.

  158. Chip

    Rachel,

    In actuality there is very little to be worried about in regards to TU24. If there is anything to be concerned about it’s the fact that we have very few Near Earth Object research currently underway.

    Using the current methods of detection with modern equipment NASA has publicly determined that the object will not hit us nor the moon directly.

    There are theories that stipulate the possibility of minor weather changes and or the possibility of minor Earth quakes during the time that the object makes it’s approach and during the time that the object leaves the vicinity. But, those are mere theories vs. the math.

    Whether or not NASA has withheld anything is anybodies guess. Why the news has not chimed in is a question that I myself have raised.

  159. APD

    TU24 is mostly non-significant. It’s just an asteroid. There isn’t anything special about it. I bet you didn’t know that just recently, sometime this month, another asteroid was much, much closer. Just last year one of similar size came FAR closer to us than TU24 will. Neither asteroids of its size nor its proximity to us are uncommon. However, TU24 WAS on the news apparently. For a very brief time NASA had a (relatively, keep that in mind) high chance of impact listed for TU24 on their “Big list of things that could hit us” but now they know that it’ll miss us. By a lot. It was hyped very briefly, but it’s nothing to worry about.

    What I don’t understand is this guys obsession with WD5 and TU24. For a very brief period he was hyping impacts. Then when that turned bust he started hyping up magnetic interference. He’s either messing with us to see how we’ll react, trying to stir up fear for kicks, or both. I mean, if he seriously believed in a threat you’d think he would have gone to the authorities. But he originally started up his stuff shortly after the TU24 hype disappeared, blaming it on a NASA cover-up. I mean, come on. Who heard of 4581 Asclepius on the news? But the fact that he insists on hyping something dismissed as harmless is what gets me. And now he’s using a bet to make himself seem legit.

    His science is poor and his views are contradictory. Yet still he continues. He’s trying to get fear. Why? Who knows. Kicks? Experiment? Epic lulz?

  160. ScottB

    Why would the news be interested in a) science and b) a space rock that’ll miss the earth by hundreds of thousands of miles? TV networks know that the only thing their viewers are concerned about is celebrity gossip, gruesome murders, sex stories and pedophiles. One simple little space rock is not going to be able to compete with all of that.

  161. Rachel

    L Fuller -

    Thank you for replying, as well as the replies by others after. I do feel a bit more at ease now. I’m not normally a person that goes for conspiracy theories, but this one really got me for some reason.

    For reference, I read about NASA’s viewing of the asteroid here:
    http://echo.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroids/2007TU24/2007TU24planning.html

    I know that there was an asteroid that came closer earlier this month, but wasn’t it much, much smaller? Like, a pea compared to the brussels sprout this one is. And what was the one that was of the same size that passed last year? Just curious. I don’t recall that one, I do remember the FU### from a few years back.

    So if there was one of comparable size last year, how come people weren’t freaking out about it? Is it all just because of the hype that the fellow at TU24.org has caused with his scare video?

    I just hope that by the time next Tuesday comes along I’ll be so busy I won’t even be thinking of this, still rather nervous. I’m sure it doesn’t help that my stress levels are already very high and so something like this that I wouldn’t normally about is bothering me.

  162. L Fuller

    From what I can see in the site you linked, those are observations solely for projecting the trajectory of the asteroid into the future… after the time it passes the earth. The earth will alter the objects orbit to some degree and thus we need to know where it will go in the future. I would hardly assume that these will be the only observations.

    If you will search this Blog and the BAUT forums, by the way, you will see that the people that frequent this site are all for tracking NEOs and funding for the tracking, etc. That isn’t the issue of Phil’s post.

    Here is a link to an asteroid that did make the news that came much closer ot the earth. It was only 30 m wide and not 300 m, but still not insignificant. It was 1/10th the distance to the moon. I won’t bother to work out the math here, but I am fairly certain that the gravitational tug between the earth and that asteroid would be greater than that between the earth and TU24 at the distance which it is passing.

    http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news142.html

    In 1989, 4581 Asclepius, another 300 meter asteroid, passed the earth at a bit over 400,000 miles… this is about the same mass and distance of TU24. You can find it listed in the table located at:

    http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/neofact.html

    The table says it passed at .0046 AU … an AU is an Astronomical Unit based on the distance between the earth and the sun, which is 1 AU. 1 AU = 9.295581E+07 miles… so .0046 AU = 427596.7 miles.

    And… nothing happend to the earth. Though, the asteroid did pass through the space the earth occupied 6 hours earlier! Now THAT would have been an event.

    And frankly, I do think that the only reason that this is an “issue” now is exactly what Phil Plait was making the point about in the first place.

    I also found an interesting link that may also explain some of the mindset of the folk that create this kind of non-issue:

    http://www.flayme.com

    I’ve only found that site so can’t really vouch for it, but seemed pretty near the mark from the little I did read of it.

    Cheers!

  163. And

    It’s the 23rd, where’s the goldstone data? They had it scheduled to be observed.

  164. Sam

    THE AUSTRALIAN newspaper here in Australia has started reporting this story on their website….

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23100798-601,00.html

    …which puts paid to the conspiracy theory about 2007 TU24.

  165. Bill Nettles

    I have done further research into Earl’s TV claims. It seems that everyday, scientists are discovering more and more about the big bright object. What he didn’t tell you (because he, too, is part of the conspiracy) is that on February 20, the Earth will absorb so much of the electrical and magnetic simultaneous radiation fields that the object will stop glowing and will turn blood red. Yes, that’s right. Plus, the oceans will rise higher and fall lower than they have for the previous 2 weeks.

    Someone at NASA has broken through the conspiracy and posted a warning. Tell all your friends to get the information before it gets erased.

  166. Max

    wow. I thought the electric universe theory was like real or something, and didn’t know about the vid until somebody linked me to it. I know a friend who’s a total astronomy nerd and found it on nasa. Thank god I found this site. Though the above comment scars me, cuz I don’t understand it at all and the link given is about lunar eclipses. w/e probably not real.

    Just thanks for your enlightenment. Though this does kinda fall apart if NASA is lying about how far away it is and its trajectory and its actually going to hit us.

  167. L Fuller

    Max, the comment above is part of a running joke staring with a post by Earl’s TV… one of the posters:

    http://www.badastronomy.com/bablog/2008/01/21/repeat-after-me-asteroid-2007-tu24-is-no-danger-to-earth/#comment-149959

    And believe me, NASA isn’t the only organization capable of calculating the distance and trajectory of TU24. Heck, I’m but a geologist and I could calculated the trajectories if I wished.

  168. Rachel

    L Fuller -

    I was actually curious about that, if other people could predict the distance and trajectory. One of the selling points by doomsdayers is that NASA is lying about that info, telling the public a different path/distance than it actually is.

  169. Zack

    Seriously, if this thing isn’t real, it’s going to cause a hell lot of problems in my school. People are confessing because the world is ending soon.

    If it doesn’t happen… :/

  170. hmmmm… got to admit the panic sex post sounded pretty good

  171. Nigel Depledge

    Chip said:
    “What’s up with the bashing around here? Name calling and the likes. Needless to say; it’s a little odd. Is it a symptom of some childhood trauma to react this way to those who oppose your views?

    With that attitude how are any of us ever to learn anything?”

    Well, Chip, that’s the internet for you. If you post something idiotic, expect to get called an idiot.

  172. Nigel Depledge

    Chip said (in reply to Michelle):
    “If you could post the locations where I said any of that, it would be much appreciated. ”

    What, Chip, you can’t access Google now??

    Chip also said:
    “I will more than assure you that I have read a minimum of 5 times more than you have on this particular subject. ”

    Come on this should be good.

    Back up that claim with some evidence. Or retract it.

    Chip went on to say:
    “Didn’t your mommy teach you that angry people are only angry because they lack the communication skills and the vocabulary to necessary to properly express them selves? On second thought maybe you should just bite your lip. The English language has turned out to be the pie in the sky that was a little too high for you dear. Nice sentence structure…”

    Now you are being a patronising tosser. And I use that term in a purely factual sense.

  173. Nigel Depledge

    Chip said:
    “It appears that you have missed the portion of the conversation regarding who struck the first blow in your little dance of words. I recall Richard calling me a “bonehead” right off the bat.”

    Maybe it was because you made a boneheaded comment.

    Consider this scenario, Chip. On a topic about which you know a lot, you see a great deal of nonsense published. From time to time, you debunk the nonsense, and you challenge the posts and comments of those who propagate it. Sometimes, you run out of patience for the willful ignorance that you encounter. Thus, when you next encounter a boneheaded piece of crap masquerading as an opinion, you call it’s perpetrator a bonehead.

    We are all only human, Chip. Some of us try to better ourselves, while others appear to be content. They do say, after all, that ignorance is bliss.

  174. Nigel Depledge

    Lugosi said:
    “In other words, if there’s a thunderstorm anywhere on Earth on the 29th, it will obviously be the fault of the asteroid?”

    Additionally, since there are about 200 thunderstorms happening at any one time, how would anyone be able to tell which one was caused by the asteroid?

  175. Nigel Depledge

    Mike J. said:
    “funny thing, is that Phil Plait has a way with being rude to the people he disagrees with… he follows the richard dawkins rule of thumb… i.e. you don’t just have to disagree, you also have to be jerk when conveying your disagreement.”

    Actually, Mike, why should any of us be polite to people who are lying?

    TU24dotORG could quite easily have checked up on his facts – the internet makes that so easy, but there are still libraries and, hey, just good old-fashioned telephones (call your local planetarium / observatory / astronomy club) – but he chose not to. Instead, he made a video, and placed it in a popular forum where the unwitting and ignorant have fallen for it.

    At the end of the day, there are two kinds of disagreement. There are disagreements over matters wher the facts are unclear or unavailable, and in these cases every informed opinion has approximately equal weight. Then there are disagreements over matters where the facts are clear and the information is available. This is one such. The science is clear – TU24 will pass about 500,000 km from Earth, and it will have no measurable effect on anything here on Earth.

    If you disagree, you are, of course, challenging the scientific mainstream. Thus you take on the burden of proof. So, feel free to disagree, but bear in mind that it is up to you to find a substantial reason for doing so. If you cannot, then you should bow to the expertise of the astronomers, who actually do know what they are talking about.

  176. Nigel Depledge

    TU24dotORG said:
    ” will go one further than my previous offer of $500 wager… I will up it to $5,000, donated to the charity of Mr. BA’s choosing shall the following occur:

    -It will not be speculated in the mainstream media in January or February, 2008, that TU24 had an electric or electromagnetic influence on the Earth, and WD5 had none on Mars. (The premise of the video and website)”

    Of course, the mainstream media have been speculating about all sots of crap, so this is irrelevant to anything.

    What, matters, me old china, is what the scientific literature has to say. I can guarantee you that the peer-reviewed literature will not be speculating about TU24 having any “electric” or “electromagnetic” impact on the Earth. Similarly for WD5 on Mars.

    TU24dotORG also said:
    “-TU24’s and WD5’s effects on the magnetosphere of the Earth and Mars, respectively, will not be studied by any univeristy-affiliated scientist”

    Since there is no effect to study, why would anyone try?

    TU24dotORG went on to say:
    “If one of the above DOES occur before March 1, 2008, then Mr. Plait agrees to dismantle the Badastronomy.com website within 30 days and not port all or any part of it it to another website.”

    Now you are saying the opposite of what’s in your first paragraph.

    And there’s more:
    “TU24.org does *NOT* make the claim that there will be dire effects of TU24 passing within Earth’s magnetosphere. I’m not the only one getting my ‘facts’ mixed up. Neither have I claimed that the asteroid will impact with Earth.”

    Now you are splitting hairs. You have made stuff up and tried to scare people with it for whatever reason of your own. You have made claims that are demonstrably wrong, and done so in a sensationalistic way (cf. Earl’s TV’s post, except that his claims were true).

    In short, TU24dotORG, whoever you are, you are a liar.

  177. TU24 writes:

    [[I sincerely doubt BA would wager their entire precious website. It just shows that they wouldn’t stand by their ‘debunking’.]]

    Wow, Dr. Plait, you’ve become plural!

    TU, most evolutionary biologists won’t debate or bet against creationists, either. Your contention is still bunk, even if nobody bothers to take your rigged bets against it.

  178. BP Nosnevel, using a not-very-subtle anagram of my name, writes:

    [[Please take on the AGW (man-made global warming) doomcryers. They took bits and pieces of factual information and turned it into a new cult. Is the Earth warming? Of course it is. There is a cycle of hundreds of thousands of years of cooling followed by a short period of warming.]]

    What cycle, and what evidence do you have for it? Can you cite a source?

    The ice ages are governed by “Milankovic cycles,” named for the Serbian astronomer, Milutin Milankovic, who first proposed them as a cause for the ice ages in 1930. If you actually do the matrix math they require to find the current situation, you find that the Earth should now be warming, not cooling. In fact, we passed the peak of the interglacial 6,000 years ago.

    [[ We are in a warming period right now. Whoop-dee-doo. In the 1970’s the doomcryers were warning us about global cooling and said the next ice age was upon us.]]

    Urban legend. Here’s what actually happened:

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=94

    [[ All this while the CO2 concentration was rising? Eh? CO2 is an incredibly weak insulating gas and really cannot impact the temperature of the Earth by more then .5 degrees C.]]

    Actually, it’s a pretty darned good insulator, but the reason it’s a greenhouse gas has nothing to do with that. The problem is that it largely allows sunlight to pass but absorbs infrared light, e.g. from the ground. To see more about how the greenhouse effect works, try here:

    http://members.aol.com/bpl1960/Greenhouse101.html

    [[ We’re well into that .5 C right now. There has been no increase in warming in the last 10 years.]]

    Yes, there has been:

    http://members.aol.com/bpl1960/Ball.html

    [[ Eh again? These people need to become educated on the realities and the data from ice cores to have a beginning understanding of how all of this data is related.
    In your words, the AWG promoters are “… not trying very hard to educate themselves on reality” If they did educate themselves, they would understand the truth, which might bruise their preconceived notions about who they should listen to. Study and learn, create informed opinions and make informed decisions.
    ]]

    To study and learn about this, try reading John T. Houghton’s “Global Warming: The Complete Briefing” (2004). To start to learn the physics behind it, some good sources are Houghton’s “The Physics of Atmospheres” (3rd edition 2002), and Grant W. Petty’s “A First Course in Atmospheric Radiation” (2006).

  179. Chris writes:

    [[Have you looked into the electric universe theory?]]

    Lots of people have. It’s garbage.

  180. Sorry, that should have read, “the Earth should now be cooling, not warming.” That’ll teach me not to proofread!

  181. APD

    Two more things. The first one is for you Phil. You say that even if the Asteroid were negatively charged it wouldn’t have that effect. What effect would it have? Sorry, I’m no expert astronomer.

    The second goes out to TU24.org. How did you come to this conclusion anyway? I’m guessing from the Electric Universe guy’s Holmes theory. In that case… Isn’t what he said about Holmes impossible? Didn’t Mars lose its magnetosphere billions of years ago? And either way, how did you come to the conclusion of plasma discharges? Aurora Borealis? Because that’s totally different.

  182. The Tunguska event became the solution for something I was attempting to research.

    I am not an astronomer.
    I am a skeptic
    I write but I’m not a writer.
    Like you I also like reality.
    I want to know the truth.

    Decided to examine some things to prove/disprove the bible.

    I wanted to look for realities.

    Things that were impossible to do before the WWW.

    Did not expect it to have anything to do with astronomy or archeology.

    Wrote about what I found in an articled called “Armchair Archeology”.

    The combined total number of evidences I found drove my own skepticism beyond acceptable limits.

    You can read the article here:

    http://ablebodiedman.blogspot.com/

  183. psimantis

    Ya know…

    Who cares what this guy says…he’s obviously bent on debunking anything and everything and spams any and all others who think differently than him!

    It’s one of those Napoleonic insecurity things that make him come across as just a jerk trying to harm people instead of someone who believes differently.

    I AM angry that the media and NASA disregard this and don’t report it…not acknowledging possible danger is irresponsible and corrupt. On the other hand, I don’t really believe that it will actually hit us. I DO believe that the number of asteroids has risen and we do need to be aware of that possibility and the possible outcomes.

    Tunguska happened….period. It CAN happen again. And WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THE ELECTOMAGNETIC EFFECTS COULD BE. This asteroid is HUGE.

    I also agree that the utube videos are kind of ridiculous, but there are those that just wanted the information out there however possible….not fear mongering. Our president is the KING of fear mongers, but I’ll betcha this jerkoff supports him! He’s probably one of those screaming “bomb Iran”.

    Be picky people! The media does lie….hide things AND attempt to sway beliefs. It’s a fact. There’s a difference between news and commentary….and our tv’s are full of commentary instead of just news reporting.

    The information regarding TU24 could be totally different than what we’re seeing too! Who the hell knows?

    I wrote a letter to NASA regarding the asteroid and got a letter back the same day saying there was no worry, stating that other asteroids have passed much closer…….but than upon returning to the website 2 hours later, the webmaster had placed another asteroid on the board that was closer (and much smaller) THAT HAD ALREADY PASSED!!! That is what created MY concern. Why attempt to quell worries with bs when there is no worry?

    As for me, I’ll be with my family that day and we’ll hope for the best, but if something does happen, I will die happily with my loved ones nearest to me.

    Oh YA! I will hold this guy to what he says too! If something does happen…you owe me everything you have. I take you literally.

    QUESTION EVERYTHING!!!

  184. APD

    ^lol. That Asteroid is no lie. And if you are really concerned, 4581 Asclepius came about the same distance away and was just as big. There have been others, too.

    Seriously, there is no conspiracy, even if there IS need for worry.

  185. Bob

    Reading comments section … making my head explode …

  186. Your mama

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2hKPY1jJwM

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_Y6L9-VmK8

    http://www.tu24.org

    This might be alot more serious that was previously thought guys.

    Even if this asteroid does not hit, but is a negative charge asteroid, the damage will be catastrophic.

    in 1908 a negative charge asteroid passed over russia, causing massive damage, im sure youve seen pictures of it.

    That asteroid was 50 feet in diameter.

    this one is the size of the sears tower…

  187. APD

    Uh, The Tunguska impactor WAS AN IMPACTOR. It says it, right up there in the post.

  188. APD

    Oh wait, you’re kidding. >_>

  189. William

    The thing I am noticing between this and the video: you both aren’t coming forth with the science to explain. This is all hearsay. However, you give the notion of not to worry, which is pleasant, ofcourse. I do not fear monger, and can’t stand it either. However, to know the Universe and the way it works is the only way to Truth. So, got any science to back up EITHER side? I mean, it would be nice if opinion was actually left out of this conversation, but ofcourse it can’t be, since science is not full understood yet… we all speculate. But maybe you don’t need to since there ARE sciences coming to the surface, like…

    http://www.ctpenergy.com

    one example on this site is how we affect weather within the Mind of the collective, via thought. I’m not saying everyone intends to affect the weather. But if a science proves it as repeatable/predictable study… it is then easier to ALL agree upon the results, and something is going on here we may want to pay attention to. But does it matter anyway, if we are eternal souls in a human experience? Or am I the crazy one now with mumbo jumbo? CTP will show us, eventually. Will you take the chance to study new and breaking sciences to get a grasp on this whole situation we call life?

    My 2 cents.

  190. APD

    Phil’s science is obvious. It states that the electric theory is false. Does he need to investigate this? No. It’s already been massively discredited. However, some things he needs to explain more, as I mentioned earlier, but he uses logic and established fact. TU24.org not so much. He ISN’T using established fact, and really needs to provide some evidence for the possibility of any of his claims.

    But admit, really you just wanted to post that link, eh?

  191. Passerby

    After reading most of these comments I just wanted to note that some of the people who posted on here came across as total snobs! It’s not fair to call us “fearmongers”. We’re all just human & the majority of us aren’t astronomers so we simply don’t know. I mean, how are most of us to know who or what to believe aside from what we’re told anyway? It’s very easy for people to panic a bit when they hear news of something like this. Try to have some understanding here people.

    I personally don’t know anything about astronomy & I consider myself fairly intelligent, but when I hear that an asteroid might be hitting the Earth my initial reaction is fear. So, I Googled it and happened across your website. I’m still not even sure who runs this site & if they’re any more credible than the guy who posted the video on You Tube (which I only learned about through this message thread by the way), but I’m choosing to believe they are (seeing as how I don’t want to die on Tuesday night haha).

    At any rate, I know that what you’re all trying to do is state the facts & ease people’s fears but keep in mind that you may be offending some people a little. We may not all be as smart as some of you & it feels a little like some of you are looking down at us from your high horse laughing at our stupidity.

  192. Rachel

    Passerby -

    I don’t think anybody who is of the opinion that there’s nothing to worry about is being insulting at all, the conversation only gets ugly when posters like TU24.org refuse to acknowledge their own inaccuracies when there is scientific logic proving otherwise.

    I came upon this site out of worry myself. I posted with questions and concerns and in NO WAY did anybody make me feel like I was stupid, ignorant (though I am when it comes to astronomy), or asking dumb questions. Nobody talked down to me, they simply answered my questions and even provided me with sources. I feel much better now, and confident that we’re all going to be just fine.

    What I don’t understand is why everybody pushing the doomsday theories without much scientific foundation seems to be HOPING that something horrible is about to happen. Why is this? And to address where you said that it’s not fair to call people like that fearmongers because perhaps they don’t know any better? Spreading NO information is much better than spreading info you know is false or concepts that are in no way backed by research and/or have been widely discredited! So yes, it is fear mongering when folks continue to insist these things when they are told over and over and over why it’s not correct, given explanations and proof, and more by people either highly knowledgeable or educationally qualified in astronomy.

  193. Rachel

    How is it that my posts are now being flagged as spam but posts like Geoff’s make it through free? lol.

    I didn’t read the whole thing, just the conclusion to see if it was worth it here’s what I gathered…Tunguska was really Satan arriving, then hiding throughout the Earth for the past 100 years and sometimes he comes about in his spaceship? Eh?

    Rapture Ready folks have found their way to BA.

  194. Suz

    Good read. Ref. Wikipedia. The Tunguska Event was a massive explosion of an asteroid that exploded as it hit the atmosphere (an air burst). Many TV docs have not concluded on this explanation. Also, a good read: http://sanfrancisco.tribe.net/listing/Asteroid-2007-TU24-has-NASA-concerned/san-francisco-ca/00cb76c5-0e92-4b7e-af83-98ff872bae79

    Asteroid 2007 TU24 has NASA concerned.

    Numerous solutions indicate an Earth impact.. Here is the latest regarding this unfolding catastophic situation Quote

    I believe that the greatest potential for danger will come in the form of TU24 being an asteroid whose plasma discharge with Earth may cause great chaos, even though it is hundreds of thousands of kilometers away.

    Plasma is the fourth state of matter, and one that we know little about. 99.999% of the universe consists of this plasma.

    Astronomers hold the theoretical assumption that bodies in space are electrically neutral. An electric comet or asteroid would strike at the foundations of the theoretical sciences. A few months ago, a surprise happened.

    Again, take time to read the article for another viewpoint.

  195. ScottB

    [[And WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THE ELECTOMAGNETIC EFFECTS COULD BE.]]

    Yes we do. There will be none. End of story.

  196. Rachel

    Suz,

    Your source is hardly any legit article. It’s the SAME posting that’s showing up all over the conspiracy forums! It’s on a discussion board. Not a legitimate news source!

    The plasma discharge has been discussed repeatedly here. I suggest you go through all of the comments, on all three posts regarding 2007 TU24 here and read each and every one.

  197. APD

    Suz… The article was written by this same guy. It contains basically the same information without the mass/size error. It is, IIRC, on his website. Everything in there is basically irrelevant to everybody reading this blog post.

  198. Suz:

    1. NASA is not concerned.

    2. No solutions indicate Earth impact for TU24

    3. Asteroids don’t give off plasma, and they aren’t charged. Comet Holmes was not charged.

    4. We know plenty about plasma. And 99.99999% of the universe does not consist of plasma.

    5. It is not a theoretical assumption that large bodies are not charged. We’ve been to (off the top of my head), Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, a few asteroids, and at least one comet. They have no net charge. It’s not theoretical that they don’t have a charge, we’ve been there and had a look. There are simply not any masses of charge floating around waiting to fiddle with our magnetosphere. But even if it was true, the earth gets blasted by coronal mass ejections from the sun and guess what, we’re still here. A typical CME is much larger than TU24.

    6. The article isn’t a viewpoint, it’s bollocks. It is a 100% fiction made up by someone who wants to spread FUD. It’s no more true than Scientology.

  199. Spanky

    Objects in space can be fragmented and have their courses altered by too close an approach to a large body. Remember Shoemaker-Levy 9 smashing into Jupiter in 1994? Few saw that coming and few knew about it until right before it happened. Explosions larger than the earth itself ensued. Scientists don’t know everything. Look at what science has done to our planet. The “smart guys” lead the sheeple into allowing them to build great weapons and into using their newly gained technologies to pollute the earth. Get my drift?

    The 2007 in TU24 denotes the year it was discovered. Just a few months ago to be exact. It came out of nowhere and suddenly we know it’s entire orbital history with a high degree of accuracy? Hogwash. We are entering an area of the cosmos that is the equivalent of a cosmic shooting gallery. This one may miss but expect more of these incidents in the very near future. It’s no coincidence that Mars is having a near miss as well.

    You can rest assured that when scientists knew it was going to strike they wouldn’t tell the public. They have already told you there is nothing they can do to stop it and thus why alarm people needlessly. A second after people see the blinding light they are going to be vaporized anyway.

    1000 m/s: The speed of a typical rifle bullet and about the top speed of a sub-orbital spacecraft.

    8000 m/s:Tthe speed of the Space Shuttle at main engine shutdown (just before it enters orbit).

    25,000 m/s: The “average” speed of an asteroid.

    60,000 m/s: The speed of Shoemaker-Levy 9 at impact.

    And yes, I am an amateur astronomer based in Hawaii…so what. I don’t know everything.

  200. Glen

    I have a friend named John that works at NASA and when I asked him about this he said TU24 has begun to wobble and according to the new projections it now has a 50/50 chance of hitting the Earth. He says NASA doesn’t want to create a mass panic over a 50 percent chance because if it doesn’t hit a lot of people would be mad at them. I am taking my family to the mountains Monday night as that is the only safe place if it strikes either ocean there will be a total wipe out of either the Western or Eastern seaboards. I urge everyone who reads this not to take the chance but go find a high place to seek refuge just for Tuesday and just to be safe. I’ll be in the SMoky Mountains. If I’m wrong that’s great, If I’m right I’ll be alive!

  201. L Fuller

    Passerby,

    Nobody is calling people who are concerned due the misrepresentation of facts “Fearmongers.” We are calling the people who are intentionally trying to breed the fear for some unknown, self-serving purpose “Fearmongers.” Those who came to this forum looking for answers to help aleviate your fears are both welcome and respected for taking the step of trying to find out the truth.

    Some of the people who come here we would call “Trolls”… they don’t actually believe this event is a disaster either. They are just here to spread misinformation to watch happens to the contributors to this blog. They enjoy watching the size of the posts pile up in response to their comments and watching arguments commence. They might seem to support one side or the other, but phrase their posts only to cause discord. These I would also call “Fearmongers.”

    Trolls need to be fed, and what they feed upon is the confusion, fear, or hatred they can instill in the reader. Because of this, I will only very rarely directly address a troll.

    Remember… a “fearmonger” is somebody who tries to spread fear for the sole purpose of causing fear. You, and all others who seek to learn because they are afraid are very much welcome.

  202. TU24 has begun to wobble

    You’d think an asteroid would know better than to drink and orbit.

    It’s a good thing that wobbling doesn’t change an orbit though, eh?

  203. After reading all this TU24 FUD, I have to admit, I really have the urge to turn my rubber bible into some kind of an impactor…

    “You know the Electric Universe theory could be ”

    “But plasma discharging asteroids ”

    Of course, I’d probably end up just breaking the book.

  204. Hmm can’t use a less-than sign… ok try to imagine a loud “WHOMP!” sound before each of the close quotes. The WHOMP is the impact of the handbook of chemistry and physics upside the speaker’s head.

  205. A note for the electric universe folks. This is the truth. Every day, I deliberately pump literally millions of electromagnetic waves into the atmosphere. In fact, I do so with the purposeful intent of refracting them through the atmosphere in order to irradiate people in other countries.

    I’m also quite successful at this and have, quite literally, hundreds of documented reports of my electromagnetic radiation landing at locations – some over 14000 km away. Most of the reports note that my radiation is arriving in top quality with very little diminished effect. I irradiate the USA from the east coast to about Colorado daily using radiation at key points on the spectrum that maximize atmospheric refraction depending on the time of day and time of year.

    Most commonly I use 0.000000058 eV photons, although I have been known to fire off 0.000001846 eV photons just for fun.

  206. Tony

    Hey

    Is this A’l Gores description? It fits perfectly to his global warming scare tactics and gloomy visions. Don’t get me wrong I believe there is a posibility of global warming and perhaps even solar system warming due to the sun’s activities, but blaming my two SUV’s for that I believe it is just unfair and dangerous.

    Tony

  207. Marty

    This is why I love Badastronomy!!…I can get a dozen e-mails linking me to a dozen sites about how the planet is doomed…and we’re all going to die….then all I need to do is hit this url …..and all’s right with the world again!

    Thanks!

  208. APD

    Global Warming is real, it has gone beyond the natural warming/cooling cycle, and we’re the cause. Yes, there is a lot of overhyping. But we still need to be greener.

  209. Passerby

    Rachel & L Fuller,

    You’ve both made me feel a bit silly about my initial reaction when reading these posts previously. Thank you for helping to explain & I now know that no one means any harm with their comments towards average people such as myself!

    I have to admit that even though everyone has eased my fears I’m still a teeny, tiny bit scared & probably will be until Tuesday comes & goes…that’s just my nature. I will forever be the skeptic of BOTH theory based on nothing concrete AND science based on fact simply because they are both things that are being told to me that I do not 100% KNOW for myself. I see 2 sides to EVERYTHING & NEVER stop wondering “what if they’re wrong?” or “what if they’re right?” Does that make any sense? Anyway, I just wanted to say thanks for all the information & kind words.

  210. psimantis posts:

    [[Tunguska happened….period. It CAN happen again. And WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THE ELECTOMAGNETIC EFFECTS COULD BE. This asteroid is HUGE.]]

    The main difference between the passage of TU24 and the Tunguska explosion is that TU24 will be about 100,000 times further away. Even if it’s charged, we won’t feel a thing.

  211. Suz posts:

    [[Astronomers hold the theoretical assumption that bodies in space are electrically neutral.]]

    That’s because, as far as we have been able to tell in half a century of space exploration, bodies in space are electrically neutral. (Unless you count some nebulae, and those are so spread out it doesn’t much matter.)

    Electromagnetism is a far stronger force than gravity. If planets or asteroids were electrically charged, it would affect the orbits of the planets. It doesn’t. Going on gravity alone, we’ve been able to predict the paths of the planets to multiple decimal places, good enough to fire probes at them from hundreds of millions and billions of miles away. There really doesn’t seem to be any other large force out there.

  212. Glenn posts:

    [[I have a friend named John that works at NASA and when I asked him about this he said TU24 has begun to wobble and according to the new projections it now has a 50/50 chance of hitting the Earth. He says NASA doesn’t want to create a mass panic over a 50 percent chance because if it doesn’t hit a lot of people would be mad at them. I am taking my family to the mountains Monday night as that is the only safe place if it strikes either ocean there will be a total wipe out of either the Western or Eastern seaboards. I urge everyone who reads this not to take the chance but go find a high place to seek refuge just for Tuesday and just to be safe. I’ll be in the SMoky Mountains. If I’m wrong that’s great, If I’m right I’ll be alive!]]

    Leave the key under the mat or in the mailbox, okay? And I’ll need your address.

  213. If astronomers want to be taken seriously, if they want us to believe that they have been forthcoming, then I DEMAND that they do the following. If astronomers will do these four things, I’ll consider it absolute proof that astronomers are finally willing to put an end to their conspiracy of silence and deal in factual terms with the pulic.

    * Open up your planetariums to the public! Until you’re willing to open up your storehouses of knowledge, we can’t believe that you’re being open with us.

    * Tell us about your secret observatories! How can we trust you when we don’t know anything about the instruments you use? For all we know, you astronomers may have observatories IN SPACE, watching the cosmos even as I type this!

    * Tell us what you know! Until you make at least one journal, one magazine, or one web site dedicated to astronomy available to the public, your conspiracy of silence will be in full evidence.

    * Show us pictures of what you’ve seen! Again, until you give us access to images of the cosmos, how can we trust you when you say you’re open with us?

    Okay, I’ll stop there. I think I’ve made my point. Conspiracy of silence? Just the opposite, actually. Astronomers already do all these things, and more, making accusations of conspiracy utterly laughable.

    In fact, astronomers are the scientists you can’t get to shut up. They are the first to see the wonders of the cosmos, and they pee-in-their-pants can’t wait to share their discoveries with, literally, anybody who will listen. Go find a group of amateur astronomers in a darkened field and ask if you can take a look through one of their ‘scopes. I guarantee, they will NEVER tell you to go away. Instead, they will interrupt what they’re doing, tripping over themselves in the process, and do their absolute level best to make your first introduction to astronomy the most positive and memorable experience it can possibly be. There is no better ambassador for science, and there is no scientist more accessible to the public, than an astronomer. Period.

    I find it insulting that NASA scientists would be accused of witholding information regarding a change in TU24′s trajectory increasing its impact odds to 50/50. Besides the scientific fact that a wobble delta is incapable of inducing a change in orbital trajectory (making this an utterly bogus claim in any case) keeping secrets like that is simply something astronomers just don’t do.

  214. Tom

    No, you have it all wrong. I ran across a reference to this in Yahoo! Answers and psychically calculated exactly what will happen. The asteroid will slightly disrupt the earth’s orbit, causing us to begin a spiral toward the sun that will result in solar impact on December 21, 2012.

    Why have multiple doomsday threads when we can combine them, unless it is to have more to laugh at?

  215. Sorry, but if I may, I’d like to make a small clarification. When I said that Glenn’s claim appeared to be bogus under scientific scrutinity, what I really meant to say was that the science of orbital mechanics reveals Glenn’s claim to be a complete, contemptible lie.

    Sometimes I’m just too darn nice.

  216. Len

    You said exactly what I was thinking………

    My wife saw the exact same Youtube video….and got completely freaked out….I actually had to set down and explain everything that you have said to her just so she wouldn’t worry…..
    There is nothing worse than people playing on other peoples ignorance….and when I say ignorance…I mean “people that aren’t educated about the topic”

    And for anyone that questions the facts posted here….they are all accurate……Nothing bad is gonna happen on the 29th….

    I commend you for stepping up and discrediting people that post BS like this on the internet……It needs to be done…Keep up the good work!!!

    Len

  217. interupted

    My 13 year old saw the video on youtube and asked me this…”Dad…how far is 500,000 km ? and if the moon is 400,000 km does that mean that this ‘thing’ is going to come within 100,000 km of our moon? and will the moon effect its orbit?” ( this is where he backed his question with a reference to a movie, [I think armagedeon?] it having to do with the moons gravity and a “sling-shot” effect producing fast speed and yadda yadda yadda). To much TV I know what am I letting my child do with his youth.
    Truth is I couldnt answer him becuase I do not know and as far as I’ve read no one has added the moon to the equation, even if not for this time but for the future of the orbit. And now typing this he has got me to thinking …….I have another question…. how long has tu24 been in this overlapping orbit and have we just been lucky for the last…….4 billion years?
    just looking for answers for a curious and half scared 13 year old.anybody care to shed some light?

  218. L Fuller

    I don’t think I’ll be able to look up the exact position of the moon to TU24 at the moment, but keep in mind that if the moon is on the other side of the earth at the time of passing, and the diameter of the earth is 12,756.3 km, and the distance to the moon is 384,401 km, and if TU24 is about 500,000 km when it passes the earth’s orbit, that means the separation between the moon and TU24 could be as much as 897,157.3 km or as little as 115,599 km from the moon. Again, without knowing the exact position, I would guess the distance will be somewhere in between. The gravitational attraction on TU24 will also have been taking into account when calculating the passage of TR24 in any respect still resulting in a 0% chance of hitting the earth.

    At any rate, until somebody that can give you a better answer as to the position of the moon comes on, I would have to say to your son (who is the exact age of my oldest son and apparently as fond of questions) not to worry. If TU24 were going to be sling-shot into the earth this time through its orbit like the asteroid in that really quite terrible movie, the path is known well enough now that we would already know it.

  219. Wow

    I am so glad I read all of these comments. It must be reassuring to be a skeptic. No asteroid collisions, no climate change. Nothing will happen to us. I just took a denial pill and I feel better already. Skeptics are funny creatures, but now I am one. It truly is easier to worry about nothing.

  220. L Fuller

    Wow, you are funny… there are asteroid collisions. There are many in the geologic record… there is climate change and we are trying to help educate non-scientists about what that means … things happen all the time. We just take the time to weigh the evidence and act with reason.

    But, when we already know an asteroid isn’t going to hit us, we don’t worry about it. We worry about tracking potential impactors so we can keep such an event happening in the future.

    Oh, for anyone else reading… Wow would be a good example of an Internet Troll.

  221. L Fuller

    Sorry… should read, “so we can help keep such an event FROM happening in the future.” :)

  222. Kill Families

    Do couples weigh death in their minds when they make families?

  223. Kill Families

    Or are people generally just mindless automata doing what “Tradition” asks of them? – eg breeding.

  224. Kill Families

    COME ON, TU24!!!!!

    COME TO US QUICKLY!!!!

  225. Not believing everything you hear is not the same as not believing anything you hear. We skeptics go where the data leads. Unsubstantiated claims do not rise to the level of empirical data. Substantiate your claims, and the skeptic will believe you. It’s as simple as that.

    Using the Scientific Method to determine which claims to believe and which claims to dismiss doesn’t make skeptics better or smarter than everyone else. It doesn’t even always make us correct. It’s just that we’ve discovered that the Scientific Method is the best, most reliable tool we have to determine the true nature of things. And the great thing is that even anyone with just half a brain can use it! I’m living proof!

  226. BIG BAD MOFO

    Hey Kill Families, why don’t you just kill yourself? You obviously have never been close to a situation that would possibly produce a family, and probably never will. So when TU24 passes by go ahead and jump, just to make sure you get your death and destruction.

  227. L Fuller

    Interupted,

    I think I found a better answer for your son. There is a Website called “Earth’s Busy Neighborhood Traffic Report” at:

    http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/#details

    that also gives the distance that asteroids will be from the moon!

    The site has TU24 at 2.20 LD (Lunar Distances) from the moon… so the moon will pretty much be on the opposite side of the earth from the asteroid’s path.

  228. David

    Oh, and a double post… maybe the idiots who started this will go and drink the kool-aid??

    one can hope?

  229. David, yes, the plasma notion concerning TU24 is nothing to worry about. Even if plasma or electrical charge were an issue, it just wouldn’t matter. I understand what you’re saying about the asteroid possibly being “inside” our magnetic field, but magnetic fields aren’t like glass fishbowls which, once breached, provide no further protection to infiltration of scary stuff. It’s more like a spring. The further you penetrate into it (push on the spring), the more resistance you encounter (provided you carry a charge, of course).

    The fact is, we have plasma and charged particles bombarding our planet’s magnetic field all the time from the sun. While it is true that the Earth’s magnetic field shields us from these particles at the lower latitudes, it is also the case that the Earth’s magnetic field actually directs a concentrated flow of these particles into our atmosphere at the poles, where they give rise to the Northern Lights (or the Aurora Borealis). Charged particles from the sun are far more plentiful and relentless than any asteroid with static cling could produce.

    And these pretty lights are normally all you get.

    If that doesn’t help, then look at it this way: If the asteroid is indeed the size of the Sears Tower, then that is but a fraction of the mass of a nice-sized thundercloud. Thunderclouds become electrically charged and release this charge in the form of lightning. Thunderclouds weighing a thousand times what this asteroid weighs typically release energy equivalent to several tens of megatons of dynamite in the form of lightning and falling rain.

    And a nice thunderstorm is normally all you get.

    Now imagine that this electrically charged thundercloud, one thousand times the mass of the asteroid, is, let’s say, on the Moon (somehow). It would have no effect on us whatsoever. Lightning from a thundercloud a few hundred feet from the ground with plenty of moist air to ionize in its path is one thing. Lightning from the same thundercloud on the Moon through the vacuum of space to Earth is another, completely impossible, thing. An electrically charged asteroid one-thousandTH the mass (that’s 0.001) of this hypothetical thundercloud on the Moon an even further distance away has an even less-than-impossible chance of affecting us with its electrical charge.

    So even if TU24 does carry an electrical charge, which it doesn’t, it has about the same chance of affecting you with its charge as a dust devil on Mars.

    However, all that aside, we know it doesn’t carry a charge because, as pointed out by someone else, gravity alone is sufficient to describe its motion through the solar system, and because we understand the mechanism by which stable bodies in the solar system lose any net charge they may have started out with.

    I hope this helps.

  230. Bearfan121
  231. interupted

    so now, will this be visible to the naked eye….. and where do we look to see it if it is?

  232. op

    It would really suck if NASA is really not telling us the truth. I mean who else can provide the trajectory and mass and speed of the asteroid besides other countries?

  233. tamayo6231990

    THANK YOU!!! Ive been waiting for another person to point out this load of crap going around the internet

  234. Monsteroids

    Looks like the dude responded saying you’re wrong on his vid.

    Dang I hate it when I stumble upon this kinda crap. I’m scared yet I think its bull.

    Also what’s a housing bubble?

    Phil knows as little about TU24 as anyone else. He is just like economists that say “there is no housing bubble” and “we’re not in a recession. all is well. keep borrowing and spending.” The truth is, TU24 probably won’t hit us. However, if there was even a 1% chance it would hit us, do you think they would tell us? **** no. That would cause mass panic. The MOID (Minimum Orbital Intersection Distance) has shrunk from 0.00124995 AU to 0.00098 AU, yet the closest approach distance of 0.0037 AU has not changed one bit. Ask your brilliant Phil (lol) to explain that one

  235. Lance Quagmire

    Guess you suckers will see in less than 48 hours.

    (note how i didn’t say which side i agree with, thus provoking everyone)

  236. vance willis

    just like to say thankyou! the other day my son came to me in a right state. he had just seen the crap on youtube and stage 6. about tu24. being 10 years old he could not see it for what it was. but after seeing your site and the nasa site we joked about how stupid the video was. so thanx again.

  237. Dr Roi Lerner

    hello every body

    according to calculations done by an israeli-palestinian joint team(supported by a grant from the university of Siena’italy) the asteroid TU24 will clash at our planet causing earthquakes, deadly storms, and massive eruptions of fire across hundreds of square miles around the impact point in Iran.

    We urge the UN and international community to start a rapid evacuation of people living in a radius of 150 km around the city of Qom as we estimate a casualty rate of about 3.500.000 people!

  238. Gordon Lewis

    I must confirm Dr Lerner’s comments above. My colleagues and I from the Royal Astronomical Society have been working overtime observing TU24 and doing the sums. We are unable to match NASA and JPL’s results, and to the contrary we predict an EXTREMELY high probability of impact on 29th. We have yet to receive any official response from NASA or other relevant bodies. Which leaves us perplexed. And frightened, to say the least.

  239. doug

    why worry about it, its to late to do anything about it either way, is it not

  240. Dr, Lerner and Mr. Lewis: Citing unverifiable sources and credentials is not the same as substantiation. If you believe what you say, then quit hanging around a forum with a couple-dozen people — some of whom are actual astronomers and could evaluate your data if only you’d present it — and take your data to CNN. Hurry! Lives could be lost because of the time you’ve wasted here!

    I’ll await news of the evacuations precipitated by your recommendations to the UN.

  241. Trent

    It seems apparent that there is litte likelyhood of this asteroid causing us harm in the coming days. What I have a hard time getting my head around is the fact that this is not a reported story. By space standards, I believe that TU24 is considered a near miss and is of a substantial size. Furthermore, won’t we be able to see this, maybe even with the naked eye depending on where you are on earth. As long as I remember, there is always reporting of celestial events i.e., Mars will be as close to earth as it will be in 80years. Or, whatever the case may be. Why isn’t anyone telling us to have a look at it for fun. I know this is a relatively common occurance, but not so common with NEO’s of this size. What am I missing?

  242. L Fuller

    I’ve seen it in the news quite a bit… daily in fact for the last couple of weeks… and actually, it isn’t considered a close pass unless it is closer than the orbit of the moon from what I understand.

  243. Dondi

    do your homework, I wikied the info on TUNGUSKA The main electromagnetic damage from this occured at aprox. 3.5-4.5 miles up, that would place it just below the vanallen belt whic is where the Aurora Borialus is locate in out upper stratuphere. bearing in mind that the univercity of Alaska has estimate that if this resorce were to be tapped it would in one hours time be capable of powering Los Angeles for about five years… not knowing if this instance involves and energy field or it’s construction, and the FACT THAT THE VIDEO MENTIONED WAS FROM NASA tells me that perhaps they are not the ones practicing BAD SCIENCE but rather YOU.
    also in space mass equates to gravity, it is foolhardy to overlook this basic fact that ias taught in the public school systems of the UNITED STATE to children of the age of 9!

  244. Dr. Ed

    Let’s see … .00125067 AU is about 116,000 miles. The moon is a bit farther out than that – 250,000 miles, right? – and the Earth’s gravity has a significant influence on it, so why shouldn’t it have an effect on TU24? Apophis will come a lot closer – about 25,000 miles, well within the moon’s orbit, too.

    On the other hand, either TU24 or Apophis will hit us or it won’t, and there’s really nothing that can be done either way, so why worry about it? Better to brief your girlfriend about TU24, profess ignorance as to whether or not it’s going to hit us, then curl up with her and watch Deep Impact and let her hang onto you… :)

  245. doug

    i agree with GOD

  246. I would urge all those interested in the Electric Universe to read this book by David Bodanis

    Electric Universe

    For centuries, electricity was viewed as little more than a curious property of certain substances that sparked when rubbed. Then, in the 1790s, Alessandro Volta began the scientific investigation that ignited an explosion of knowledge and invention, transforming our world. The force that once seemed inconsequential was revealed to be responsible for everything from the structure of the atom to the functioning of our brains.

    A superb storyteller, Bodanis weaves tales of romance, divine inspiration, and fraud through lucid accounts of scientific breakthrough. The great discoverers come to life in all their brilliance and idiosyncrasy, including the visionary Michael Faraday, who struggled against the prejudices of the British class system, and Alexander Graham Bell, driven to invent by his love for a young deaf student. From the cold waters of the Atlantic, to the streets of Hamburg during a World War II firestorm and the interior of the human body, Electric Universe is a mesmerizing journey of discovery by a master science writer.

    As for the rest of you, try this theory that has the word electricity in it;

    Arguably the simplest model of a cosmological singularity in string theory, the Lorentzian orbifold, R1,1/boost is known to lead to severe divergences in scattering amplitudes of untwisted states, indicating a large backreaction towards the singularity. In this work we take a first step in investigating whether condensation of twisted states may remedy this problem and resolve the spacelike singularity. By using the formal analogy with charged open strings in an electric field, we argue that, contrary to earlier claims, twisted sectors do contain physical scattering states, which can be viewed as charged particles in an electric field. Correlated pairs of twisted states will therefore be produced by the ordinary Schwinger mechanism. For open strings in an electric field, on-shell wave functions for the zero-modes are determined, and shown to analytically continue to non-normalizable modes of the usual Landau harmonic oscillator in Euclidean space. Closed string scattering states of the Milne orbifold continue to non-normalizable modes in an unusual Euclidean orbifold of R2 by a rotation by an irrational angle. Irrespective of the formal analogy with the Milne Universe, open strings in a constant electric field, or colliding D-branes, may also serve as a useful laboratory to study time-dependence in string theory.

  247. SATAN

    I agree with God.

  248. There is a saying that “Ignorance is bliss”, but I think we’ve proven – rather scientifically no less – that ignorance is just ignorance, and it’s annoying as all get out.

  249. Bearfan121

    Ummm your both wrong on Tanguska it blew up in mid-air about 3-6 miles up

  250. doug

    so shelly, do you think you are the supreme being in our universe?

  251. L Fuller

    Bear,

    Yes, most experts on Tunguska do think it probably blew up about 3-6 miles above the earth’s surface, but it is still considered an impact event. I suppose that is because any of the matter that was contained within Tunguska would have settled to earth eventually and the explosion had a direct physical effect on the earth’s surface.

  252. The fact is these doomsayers are targeting those who cannot differentiate fact from fiction when it comes to science. I do not understand why they want people to live in fear for false reasons, maybe they get a sense of power from it. If so then they are sick puppies…

    Please see this Video Response to tu24 video – http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=FhuuO9aEeVM or visit tu24 dot info for more objective information on the topic

  253. Gordon Lewis posts:

    [[ must confirm Dr Lerner’s comments above. My colleagues and I from the Royal Astronomical Society have been working overtime observing TU24 and doing the sums. We are unable to match NASA and JPL’s results, and to the contrary we predict an EXTREMELY high probability of impact on 29th. We have yet to receive any official response from NASA or other relevant bodies. Which leaves us perplexed. And frightened, to say the least.]]

    With the possible exception of TU24, and I’m not even sure about him/her, what makes you think anyone here is likely to buy your juvenile idea of a practical joke? Get a life, for God’s sake. You’ve got to have something better to do with your time.

  254. Jon_in_Charlotte

    I just learned of TU24 Today. So, I’m trying to catch up.

    What are the odds of it affecting our atmosphere (electrical storms, interfering with satellite feeds, etc…).

  255. jason

    wow u guys need to go do something else and let everybody belive what they want if u spent half the time you spend barking on studying this thing then maybe you would have your answers

  256. Yoshi_3up

    @Jon_In_Charlotte

    Nil. It CAN’T affect our atmosphere. AT ALL.

  257. matt

    “The video creator then goes on about the electric universe, a long-discredited theory…”

    Watch this:

    http://video.google.ca/videoplay?docid=4773590301316220374&q=thunderbolts&total=413&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0

    This “discredited theory” is the reason why 17p Holmes mysteriously (according to conventional astronomy) and enormously expanded as it entered the magnetosphere of Mars. Plasma discharge.

    Plasma Cosmology is real science.

  258. L Fuller

    From all accounts, 17/P Holmes “expanded” due to material ablating off the comet due to the solar wind. This would be matter, not plasma.

    Phil Plait (now where did I hear that name before?) followed the progress of 17/P Holmes in his blog.

    http://www.badastronomy.com/bablog/2007/10/28/comet-17p-holmes-update/

  259. matt

    “From all accounts, 17/P Holmes “expanded” due to material ablating off the comet due to the solar wind.” This is simply false.

    Hey, fuller, your beloved Plait is a proponent of conventional cosmology, so of course this is his stance (your circular citations are funny, as well). There are reams of information available on the internet to refute this. Reams! Plasma cosmolgy is a burgeoning science. Please don’t tell me your just another member of the clique of the click, who believes what is stated most loudly and frequently. I’m not going to do you the favour of providing you with the links. Start reading more than the first few entries of a search.

    Try this search, knucklehead: 17/p Holmes plasma

    Reams!

  260. L Fuller

    I’ve looked at it matt… it is nonsense :) Have a good day.

  261. matt

    Fuller, with all due respect, your moron! Watch the film linked in my first comment, if moving colours and pictures are more palatable for you than simple words.

    I’m done with you.

  262. doug

    so the stories about tunguska being a nuclear explosion from an ufo are false?

  263. Monsteroids

    The NASA.gov diagram made it look like it collides head on. I’m worried.

  264. From time to time we might as well take pause, realize, understand and KNOW that WE are temporary, in more ways than ONE. We should also believe that our collective thought forms effect, not just small, but, even the largest imaginable circumstances of our reality.

  265. a2h

    OMOGMOGMGOMGOMOGMGOMGOGMOGMGO WERE ALL LIEK GONNA DIE OMGOGMOGMGOMGOGMOGMGOMGOMM DATS RLY BAD NOEZ OMGGGGGGGGGGG

    Now, let’s get back to reality, shall we?

  266. Sergio

    Evolving squid you still here?

  267. DEAR GOD!

    WE’VE BEEN HIT! ON THE NEWS JUST NOW IT SAID THAT THERE’S BEEN A MASSIVE EXPLOSION JUST 100KM SOUTH OF HERE, NEAR MILANO, ITALY!!! I’M LOOKING OUTSIDE AND THE SKY IS ALL LIT UP!!! OH MY GOD!!!

  268. Jakyll
  269. Brad in California

    re: DEAR GOD WEVE BEEN HIT IN ITALY.
    If you were hit by an asteroid/meteor, you wouldnt be posting in a forum.

  270. Lian

    these last few comments have done nothing to alleviate my fears I’ve seen ufo’s so I know the impossible exists, what time EST is this monstrosity supposed to cross safely past us exactly?? … I live in the southern hemisphere and would love to know :o ( … yes I’m a terrified wee kiwi tonight

  271. LG

    Well, it’s out on the net now…

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080125/ap_on_sc/earth_asteroid

    … but asides from mentioning WD5 at the end, nothing spectacular to note.

  272. LG

    Well, it’s out on the net now…

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080125/ap_on_sc/earth_asteroid

    … but asides from mentioning WD5 at the end, nothing spectacular to note.

    I think I’d worry more about that disabled spy satellite that WILL hit Earth…

  273. Nigel Depledge

    Psimantis said:
    >”I AM angry that the media and NASA disregard this and don’t report it…not acknowledging possible danger is irresponsible and corrupt.”

    What about not acknowledging implausible danger?

    There is no way that TU24 could have any effect on the Earth (except a really tiny gravitational one) from half a million km.

    >” On the other hand, I don’t really believe that it will actually hit us. I DO believe that the number of asteroids has risen and we do need to be aware of that possibility and the possible outcomes.”

    The number of asteroids has not risen – they’ve all been out there for a hell of a lot longer than we’ve had telescopes. What has changed is the number of known asteroids, which rises as we find more of the objects that are already out there.

    >”Tunguska happened….period. It CAN happen again. And WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THE ELECTOMAGNETIC EFFECTS COULD BE.”

    Yes, we do – they will be trivial in comparison to the energy of the impact (or shock wave in the case of another air-burst like Tunguska).

    >” This asteroid is HUGE.”

    Which one? The Tunguska object?

    Or TU24?

    In fact, neither was/is particularly large. IIRC, the Tunguska object would have been a few tens of meters across. TU24 is a few hundred meters across. If you are on a collision course with an object that is 100 km across, then you should worry.

  274. ronnie

    today is a good day to die, and also i like cheese

  275. Mike Torr

    Anyone hear a whooshing noise? :)

    And guess what – the comments have been disabled on that video. Bwah hah hah hah hah hah!

  276. leprekonas

    for **** sake! i thought we are realy going to die today :D

  277. Cinqs

    So, this asteroid is going to pass us in apporoxamitely 1 hour. Thus far I am yet to experience a single event which seems out of the ordinary. To me, it looks like TU24dotCom will be contributing $500.00 to this website.

  278. Monsteroids

    It passed hours ago…

  279. hudden

    It already passed, a while ago.

  280. The E-Man

    O.K. were safe but what about the one passing by MARS on JAN 30th , THey say it’ll pass closer to MARS and what if it changes the orbit of the planet or the roid? What if it is redirected by the internal magnetic mars defense system set up by the now long dead beings that moved to earth when their planet was deemed uninhabitable because of over population and polution. Then it heads straight for Earth and collides thus we are exterminated by the beings that placed us here in the first place! the end! I’ll except any royalities from movies , t-shirts, lunchboxes.etc… Long Live El Cucaracha !!!!!!!!!

  281. LFF

    Earl’s TV, you really are quite the LUNAtic are you? Ha ha ha…

  282. “Earl’s TV, you really are quite the LUNAtic”

    Not JUST a LUNAtic (hyuck!), but ALSO a Mad Scientist, as those who have visited my web site will attest!

    Okay, I’m not really a Mad Scientist. I’m just a Crackpot. But I’m due for a promotion soon!

  283. daz/in/denton

    i guess i’ll have to wait until 2027 to join in :(

  284. teyamin

    You really haven’t debunked anything. All you’ve done, basically is say, “No it won’t”. At least the doomcryers have provided scientific theories, regardless of how ridiculous and inaccurate they are. If you want to debunk it give us the scientific data to prove what you’re saying.

  285. What part of “Objects too far apart to interact, won’t interact, except through gravitation” doesn’t sound like a scientific theory?

    The onus of proof lies with the one making the claim, and crackpot theories are not proof. If their theories involved leprechauns, would you require the scientific community to prove that leprechauns don’t exist in order to counter their theories? Would you have believed their theories any less?

    I have a feeling this might come as a surprise to you, but scientifically proving that leprechauns don’t exist is utterly impossible, even if they truly don’t exist. This is what is know in logic as “Proving a Negative”, and it simply can’t be done.

    This logical falacy is often exploited by people who spew unverifiable hoakum and then proclaim, “You can’t prove me wrong!” This doesn’t make them right. It doesn’t even make then not-wrong. This challenge to prove a logical negative is a rhetorical device used to fool gullible onlookers into thinking that the skeptics are closed-minded and even unscientific when they don’t rise to the logically impossible challenge. Don’t fall for it.

    Crackpot theories, like leprechauns, can be dismissed on the basis that absolutely no data exists to support them. And if there’s absolutely no data or observation that a theory is intended to explain, then it’s nonfalsifiability makes it automatically worthless. You’d honestly have as much success chasing leprechauns.

    On the other hand, we have a nearly endless amount of data supporting the notion that celestial objects too far apart to interact with one another, won’t interact with one another, except through gravity. Why wouldn’t you go where the data leads?

  286. Cinqs

    Plus theres the fact that nothing did happen. I’d say thats some pretty good proof…

  287. ABABABAB

    January 30th here. Nothing happened! TU24dotORG is a lonely little boy with no one to play with. so sorry.

  288. Yes, I am still here. A bit hard to keep up on the threads though :)

  289. Dave

    Ok One Tunguska didn’t hit us it blew from the polarity, nothing has to hit us to do direct damage. Even if the planet isn’t effected, if the magnetosphere is in that something happens to it that causes large amounts of solar wind to get in everyone is f#%ked. Seen the Core? Take what happened in the movie on the surface but accelerate it. The Core won’t stop spinning, but the magnetosphere could be effected. Since it is the 29th and nothing has happened in the last few days then most likely nothing will, but no jinx from me.

  290. Saying the Tunguska impactor didn’t hit us is like saying a bullet lodged in your skull didn’t hit you, simply because it didn’t quite reach your brain. It’s not even analogous to a “grazing wound” in which the bullet does some damage as it whizzes by. We stopped the bullet! If the Tunguska impactor had not directly hit us, then it (or its fragments) would still be out there, and it isn’t. Hitting the atmosphere is as good as hitting the ground in that the Tunguska impactor transfered its full kinetic energy to our world. Using your logic, comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 never hit Jupiter, a gas giant. The fact that the Tunguska impactor wasn’t quite big enough to reach the ground before it vaporized is immaterial. The damage was direct because it hit us directly.

    And what does it mean to “blow from the polarity”? Regardless of what it means, the damage done at Tunguska is sufficiently and fully explained by a transfer of kinetic energy, without the need to invoke theories involving polarity, charge, or plasma.

  291. shannon

    However, questions about the effects of “dark energy” emerged from the shadowy world of string theory and extended supergravity. “We have found that some of the best attempts to describe dark energy predict that it will gradually become negative, which will cause the universe to become unstable, then collapse,” Linde said. “People who studied general relativity many years ago were aware of this, but to them, this was an academic possibility. It was weird to think about negative vacuum energy seriously. Now we have some reasons to believe it.”

    NEGITIVE ENERGY IS REAL !!!

  292. still here

    i just found out about the asteroid this evening. i read all these blogs, yes i have no life.
    i was thinking about Tunguska and what happens when you drop a hot piece of glass or anything into cold water.

    keep in mind i have no degree in anything…yet, but it could have happend that way right?

    also i am a bit disappointed about tu24 not affecting us, its just like y2k.

  293. Call the Bruce Willis!!! XD

  294. matt writes:

    [[Hey, fuller, your beloved Plait is a proponent of conventional cosmology, so of course this is his stance (your circular citations are funny, as well).]]

    Ah. Phil is a bad man, so he must be wrong.

    [[ There are reams of information available on the internet to refute this. Reams! Plasma cosmolgy is a burgeoning science. Please don’t tell me your just another member of the clique of the click, who believes what is stated most loudly and frequently. I’m not going to do you the favour of providing you with the links. Start reading more than the first few entries of a search.

    Try this search, knucklehead: 17/p Holmes plasma]]

    matt is right! There are reams of stuff on the internet about Comet Holmes, plasma cosmology and the electric Universe!

    Too bad it’s pretty much all garbage thought up by scientific illiterates.

    ]]

  295. doug writes:

    [[so the stories about tunguska being a nuclear explosion from an ufo are false?]]

    Completely false. Tunguska was a piece of a comet or asteroid that exploded in the Earth’s atmosphere due to thermal and compression stress. No UFOs necessary.

  296. teyamin posts:

    [[You really haven’t debunked anything. All you’ve done, basically is say, “No it won’t”. At least the doomcryers have provided scientific theories, regardless of how ridiculous and inaccurate they are. If you want to debunk it give us the scientific data to prove what you’re saying.]]

    Estimated orbital elements for 2007 Tu24 can be found here:

    http://echo.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroids/2007TU24/2007TU24planning.html

    Orbital elements for the Earth are here:

    http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/earthfact.html

  297. Earl’s TV posts:

    [[And what does it mean to “blow from the polarity”? ]]

    Well, if you’re really down and out, you might wind up blowing from the polarity just for beer money.

  298. ronnie

    tu24…….your a douchebag you stupid ass douchebag

  299. doug

    thank you for your response Barton Paul

  300. Nigger

    You honky-asses blow

  301. bud

    All of this talk about the weather being affected by TU24 is a bunch of crap. I live in the Midwest and we have temperature drops like that during the winter sometimes. It’s really not that big of a deal and plus, if the asteroid was the cause of all the weather being cold or whatever, wouldn’t it still be below zero here like it was yesterday? A bunch of crap if you ask me.

  302. buck junad

    you no like my messages

  303. Doc

    i just want to know if anyone got any good pics of it with the moon? maybe some stacked images…. anything, cause down here it was raining and overcast for me to drag my gear out.

    Hell any pictures

    [And what does it mean to “blow from the polarity”?]
    ionic winds… magnetosphere, etc… OR… a bj from a bi-polar hooker, which ever you can handle take it…

  304. David

    Persistent willful ignorance deserves emphatic categorical insult – it’s only fair for insulting the intelligence of everyone else!

  305. ???

    Hey, I guess the next doomsday will be on May, when the LHC will be generating micro blackholes, strangelets and time/space gateways, according to Russian scientists… :)
    At least the plausibility of a disaster of cataclysmic proportions is somewhat bigger than the TU24 :P

    (who knows, Hawking was wrong once, if his hypothesis is wrong again, then we could be swallowed by a black hole… yeeey)

  306. hey, I guess the next doomsday will be on May, when the LHC will be generating micro blackholes, strangelets and time/space gateways, according to Russian scientists… :)

    At least the plausibility of a disaster of cataclysmic proportions is somewhat bigger than the TU24 :P

    (who knows, Hawking was wrong once, if his hypothesis is wrong again, then we could be swallowed by a black hole… yeeey)

  307. Yeah nip it at the bud before laws get passed to teach it in schools..

  308. The Mole People will save us.

  309. The guy is a threat, not the asteroid. Jokermage, I’m waiting for a video post too.
    I really enjoyed this article. You have very good blog with good quality recordings. Thanks for the article.

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