I was just sitting here a little while wondering if the asteroid WD5 missed Mars, and if it did, how much did its orbit change. Then I fired up my feed reader and saw that Emily wrote about this in her usual thorough and interesting manner, thus obviating any need for me to so, other than point you to her. So there. Bottom line, though: it almost certainly missed, but its orbit changed quite a bit, we probably won’t recover it for years, but it’s a small rock and space is big, so it doesn’t pose much of a danger to anyone.
So, any doomsday criers out there (I’m looking at you, TU24dotORG): give it a rest.
February 5th, 2008 at 11:18 am
Ya know, I think TU24dotORG might have had a point. Why, just today we’ve had thick fog, heavy rain, and thunder and lightning – typical of the things he so wisely told us to look out for.
So much for your scepticism, Mr Plait!
February 5th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
speaking of TU24.org… visited that site lately? It’s been reduced to a forums page that’s gotten pretty overrun with sane people pretty much asking tu24 to explain him/herself. And the backpeddaling and revisionist history being spouted out is the highest of high comedy. Even no, a week after the event when nothing, not a SINGLE thing that can be scientifically attributed in any way to that asteroid’s passing, that was claimed by tu24.org, has come to pass… he STILL refuses to admit he was dead solid wrong.
The argument he and others supporting him make over and over again is to “prove that it DIDN’T have an effect”, with absolutely no understanding of the logical fallacy of that request.
It’s a hoot.
February 5th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
The part I find particularly amusing is for the past couple weeks they’ve been posting images of the magnetosphere of the Earth and looking at how perturbed the magnetosphere appears to be… they’ll post an image, then another an hour later, and marvel at the vast differences between the two. They will then talk about the massive ‘spikes’ in the magnetosphere, and shiver at the consequences of such a close pass of an asteroid.
I, of course, posted on their forum suggesting they simply look at images of the magnetosphere from a month before, six months before, one year before, etc and verify that what they’re seeing is actually abnormal. They’re looking at a dynamic shift in an image and attributing it to TU24 without any actual knowledge of what is causing those shifts. I suggested it could be perfectly normal, or perhaps it’s perfectly normal two months after the leonids, or it’s perfectly normal at this point in the Earth’s orbit around the sun… regardless of why it looks like it looks, that they are not qualified to make a judgement as they have neither the educational background to do so or previous images to compare it with.
I suggested, quite politely, that Nua (the gender and geographically questionable administrator) contact a reputable scientist to visit their forums and perhaps shed a bit of light on the activity of the magnetosphere. I got a couple nods in my direction from some of the more reasonable posters there, but the more ‘froth-at-the-mouth’ types conveniently ignored my sensible suggestion and continue to make their armchair scientist analyses.
The issue here is, in my armchair psychologist opinion, they desperately want to make something out of nothing and will not look too closely at their ‘theories’ for fear of finding all the gaping holes.
Sometimes no matter how sensible you are or how heartfelt your attempt, you just can’t save people from themselves.
February 5th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Now now Celtic, how dare you being so ignorant? TU24dotORG posted it on the day the asteroid went by: THE WEATHER WAS CRAZYYYYYYYYYY
…Now here I thought it’s been crazy all winter.
(Psst: TU24 is a girl, don’T be a sexist. Gasp.)
February 5th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
I wonder if during their rants they’ve even noticed asteroid 2008 CT1 that quietly glided by today at a mere 135,000 km. A quarter the distance of TU24 (source MPC)
February 5th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
That IS true, Michelle… it’s 50 degrees F. here in upstae NY in February! Can’t be coincidence. How totally block-headed of me. Must be the heat is getting to me.
But wait! That’s not even the record high for this day here. That would be 63 degrees F. in 1991. I wonder what asteroid went whizzing past that year, frogging up the works?… can someone look that up for me?
February 5th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Please don’t point that out to them. I’ve already seen a few members of there sliding into babbling about how all the newly found asteroids demonstrate that the 2012 Mayan calendar stuff must be true.
February 5th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
@Ian: Yea, because there obviously wasn’t any asteroids before 2012 neared. <<
February 5th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
TU24 had a huge effect. It was pitch black outside at closest approach. A mere six hours later the sky was flooded with visible light. I saw it with my own eyes.
Coincidence? I think not.
February 5th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
Any bets on how long before there’s a wd5.org website?
February 5th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
TU24′s website now automatically redirects to their forum. Not a word elsewhere…. interesting. Did they apologize, or admit they were wrong when I wasn’t looking?
February 5th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Nothing except the same old rhetoric, MrQhuest. Personally I’ve given up trying to talk reason and science over there. They’ve decided they want to believe what they wish and won’t be gainsaid by little things like science and common sense.