Comments on: Real-time solar flare detection now online

By: Oliver M. Rother

Oliver M. Rother — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 11:37:15 +0000

@Potterbroon (13 Feb 2008 at 2:26 pm)

> Hmm… the applet is somewhat difficult to follow.

I agree. I did not have the time yet to include an explaining text, but this is work in progress.

> From the Time scale on the bottom and where
> the “current time” marker is, it seems like this
> isn’t just a forecaster but also gives the results
> for the previous 24 hours as well.

That’s right, you look at the forecasts for the last 24 hours. This does not make soooo much sense at the moment, but I will include the “real” measured data shortly. This will allow us to compare the forecasting with the measured fluxes during the last 24 hours.

> But what I find confusing is the difference
> between the 3 “forecasts”.
> It seems that their time scales are the same
> for all 3 but the solar flares seem to arrive at different times.

This is just a display issue if you want to plot them on a common time scale.

The model puts out three different forecasts:

30min in the future
60min in the future
90min in the future

When I get a new data record at 12:30 UTC for example, I plot the 30min forecast flux at 13:00 (30min in the future), the 60min forecast at 13:30, and the 90min forecast at 14:00. Just like a time machine

> Can somebody explain how to read these charts
> and tell me what the difference between them is?

The 60min forecast is considered to be the most accurate.

If there a further questions, you are welcome.

Oliver M. Rother phone: +49 (0)431 880 4802; fax: 3968
Extraterrestrial Physics, IEAP mobile: +49 (0)1520 1822109
Christian-Albrechts-University ICQ: 176223124
Leibnizstr. 11/505a rother@physik.uni-kiel.de
24118 Kiel, Germany http://www.ieap.uni-kiel.de/et

By: Lugosi

Lugosi — Thu, 14 Feb 2008 00:50:14 +0000

Don’t EVEN get the TU24 people started on the Sun’s magnetic field.

By: Ben

Ben — Thu, 14 Feb 2008 00:12:39 +0000

Uh-oh, scientists and engineers collaborating? It can only go downhill from here.

Reminds me of that old saying

“A scientist can tell you how a star works but if you wanted to make a new star you’d have to ask an engineer”.

By: John Marley

John Marley — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 21:45:51 +0000

This is about terrestrial weather, but your post reminded me of it, and I think applies equally well here.

By: alfaniner

alfaniner — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 21:33:54 +0000

It would be really freaky to be looking at that online and suddenly see something really big happening, and knowing we only have about an hour to live.

Ever seen the low-budget, but still intriguing movie Miracle Mile?

By: Potterbro

Potterbro — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 21:26:18 +0000

Hmm… the applet is somewhat difficult to follow. From the Time scale on the bottom and where the “current time” marker is, it seems like this isn’t just a forecaster but also gives the results for the previous 24 hours as well. But what I find confusing is the difference between the 3 “forecasts”. It seems that their time scales are the same for all 3 but the solar flares seem to arrive at different times. Not only that, but the regions that represent the time after “current time” are the same for all 3 forecasts.

Can somebody explain how to read these charts and tell me what the difference between them is?

By: chris H

chris H — Wed, 13 Feb 2008 21:12:18 +0000

a few days ago i saw that episode of Mega Destasters on the History Channel, Solar Storm. It realy is scary to know how we have all our eggs in one basket. by that i meen how we trust onto our electrical systems by a few points of faluire. a big enough CME hit us and those big transformer sub-staions that suply power to most small towns like mine will be toast, here again is another reason why we who are dependant on technology and the energy to run it need to find alternitives, and the sooner the better

every day of this winter, and every winter that i can remember for that matter, the wind has been persistant and fast. free energy blowing right by us. and a person like my grandfather who has the money and the land for a home use trubine could care less. how can i use CME’s to convince him and others that the threat is to real to ignore, yet while at the same time not using chicken little tactits to get people to change