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	<title>Comments on: Here comes the Sun&#8230; again</title>
	<atom:link href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/02/27/here-comes-the-sun-again/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/02/27/here-comes-the-sun-again/</link>
	<description>I am an astronomer, writer, and skeptic. I likes reality the way it is, and I aims to keep it that way. My real name is Phil Plait, and I run the Bad Astronomy blog.</description>
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		<title>By: Solar Cycle and global warming? &#124; Moonage Spacedream</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/02/27/here-comes-the-sun-again/comment-page-4/#comment-209238</link>
		<dc:creator>Solar Cycle and global warming? &#124; Moonage Spacedream</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Aug 2009 15:12:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/02/27/here-comes-the-sun-again/#comment-209238</guid>
		<description>[...] The entire time I&#8217;ve been blogging here, which is about five years now, I&#8217;ve had a prevailing question, how much does the solar cycle affect Earth&#8217;s climate?  Although a lot of scientists have sort of equivocated on the issue, saying it could, but not much, they eventually, when pressed, get a little more succinct: For some reason, people want to blame the Sun for global warming. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] The entire time I&#8217;ve been blogging here, which is about five years now, I&#8217;ve had a prevailing question, how much does the solar cycle affect Earth&#8217;s climate?  Although a lot of scientists have sort of equivocated on the issue, saying it could, but not much, they eventually, when pressed, get a little more succinct: For some reason, people want to blame the Sun for global warming. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: RachelM</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/02/27/here-comes-the-sun-again/comment-page-4/#comment-189566</link>
		<dc:creator>RachelM</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Jun 2009 16:13:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/02/27/here-comes-the-sun-again/#comment-189566</guid>
		<description>So NASA&#039;s always right, huh?

&quot;It turns out that none of our models were totally correct,&quot; says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA&#039;s lead representative on the panel. &quot;The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way.&quot;

http://www.redorbit.com/news/space/1697053/new_solar_cycle_prediction/

Dude, the sun warms the earth.  Go outside on a sunny day to test this theory.  When the earth gets hotter and cooler, solar phenomena should be the first place to look, according to Occam&#039;s razor.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So NASA&#8217;s always right, huh?</p>
<p>&#8220;It turns out that none of our models were totally correct,&#8221; says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA&#8217;s lead representative on the panel. &#8220;The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way.&#8221;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.redorbit.com/news/space/1697053/new_solar_cycle_prediction/" rel="nofollow">http://www.redorbit.com/news/space/1697053/new_solar_cycle_prediction/</a></p>
<p>Dude, the sun warms the earth.  Go outside on a sunny day to test this theory.  When the earth gets hotter and cooler, solar phenomena should be the first place to look, according to Occam&#8217;s razor.</p>
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		<title>By: DAV</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/02/27/here-comes-the-sun-again/comment-page-4/#comment-73215</link>
		<dc:creator>DAV</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Mar 2008 20:40:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/02/27/here-comes-the-sun-again/#comment-73215</guid>
		<description>bpl: &lt;b&gt;No doubt there have been anomalous momentary brightenings and dimmings of the sun. But what counts is the average over a long enough time to make a difference. &lt;/b&gt;

There are oscillations that appear to be tied to the sunspot cycle.

http://www.john-daly.com/theodor/DecadalEnso.htm
http://www.john-daly.com/sun-enso/revisit.htm

And weather is cyclic:

In the 1890&#039;s there was global cooling, but then in the twenties there was obvious warming with 1934 being the hottest year in the twentieth century. Cooling again from the 40&#039;s through the mid-70&#039;s followed by warming in the latter part of the 20th century.

1922: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf
1933: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/061/mwr-061-09-0251.pdf

If the blog will let me, here&#039;s more:
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/03/16/you-ask-i-provide-november-2nd-1922-arctic-ocean-getting-warm-seals-vanish-and-icebergs-melt/</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>bpl: <b>No doubt there have been anomalous momentary brightenings and dimmings of the sun. But what counts is the average over a long enough time to make a difference. </b></p>
<p>There are oscillations that appear to be tied to the sunspot cycle.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.john-daly.com/theodor/DecadalEnso.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.john-daly.com/theodor/DecadalEnso.htm</a><br />
<a href="http://www.john-daly.com/sun-enso/revisit.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.john-daly.com/sun-enso/revisit.htm</a></p>
<p>And weather is cyclic:</p>
<p>In the 1890&#8217;s there was global cooling, but then in the twenties there was obvious warming with 1934 being the hottest year in the twentieth century. Cooling again from the 40&#8217;s through the mid-70&#8217;s followed by warming in the latter part of the 20th century.</p>
<p>1922: <a href="http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf</a><br />
1933: <a href="http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/061/mwr-061-09-0251.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/061/mwr-061-09-0251.pdf</a></p>
<p>If the blog will let me, here&#8217;s more:<br />
<a href="http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/03/16/you-ask-i-provide-november-2nd-1922-arctic-ocean-getting-warm-seals-vanish-and-icebergs-melt/" rel="nofollow">http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/03/16/you-ask-i-provide-november-2nd-1922-arctic-ocean-getting-warm-seals-vanish-and-icebergs-melt/</a></p>
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		<title>By: DAV</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/02/27/here-comes-the-sun-again/comment-page-4/#comment-73214</link>
		<dc:creator>DAV</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Mar 2008 20:24:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/02/27/here-comes-the-sun-again/#comment-73214</guid>
		<description>BPL: &lt;b&gt;Why would it be? We know from radiation physics that putting more CO2 in the air, all else being equal, will warm the ground. In a natural deglaciation the tiny warming from small orbital changes is amplified by the CO2 thereby released. It’s a feedback&lt;/b&gt;

Suggest you read something from a climatologist. This is from R. Spencer, research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville: http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=828

&lt;blockquote&gt;And our evidence against a “sensitive” climate system does not end there. In another study (conditionally accepted for publication in the Journal of Climate) we show that previously published evidence for a sensitive climate system is partly due to a misinterpretation of our observations of climate variability. For example, when low cloud cover is observed to decrease with warming, this has been interpreted as the clouds responding to the warming in such a way that then amplifies it. This is called “positive feedback,” which translates into high climate sensitivity.

But what if the decrease in low clouds were the cause, rather than the effect, of the warming? &lt;/blockquote&gt;

&lt;b&gt;Let me define “climate” for you: Climate is the average weather over a large region, or the entire world, over a period of thirty years or more. In any case, the trend in the past few years is up, not down ...&lt;/b&gt;

As I asked TheBlackCat, when would entertain the notion that you&#039;ve crested a hill and started down the other side? Would you wait to hit bottom.

&lt;blockquote&gt;About the only thing that might cause global warming hysteria to end will be a prolonged period of cooling…or at least, very little warming.  We have now had at least six years without warming, ...&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Of course, that&#039;s not a trend.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BPL: <b>Why would it be? We know from radiation physics that putting more CO2 in the air, all else being equal, will warm the ground. In a natural deglaciation the tiny warming from small orbital changes is amplified by the CO2 thereby released. It’s a feedback</b></p>
<p>Suggest you read something from a climatologist. This is from R. Spencer, research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville: <a href="http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=828" rel="nofollow">http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=828</a></p>
<blockquote><p>And our evidence against a “sensitive” climate system does not end there. In another study (conditionally accepted for publication in the Journal of Climate) we show that previously published evidence for a sensitive climate system is partly due to a misinterpretation of our observations of climate variability. For example, when low cloud cover is observed to decrease with warming, this has been interpreted as the clouds responding to the warming in such a way that then amplifies it. This is called “positive feedback,” which translates into high climate sensitivity.</p>
<p>But what if the decrease in low clouds were the cause, rather than the effect, of the warming? </p></blockquote>
<p><b>Let me define “climate” for you: Climate is the average weather over a large region, or the entire world, over a period of thirty years or more. In any case, the trend in the past few years is up, not down &#8230;</b></p>
<p>As I asked TheBlackCat, when would entertain the notion that you&#8217;ve crested a hill and started down the other side? Would you wait to hit bottom.</p>
<blockquote><p>About the only thing that might cause global warming hysteria to end will be a prolonged period of cooling…or at least, very little warming.  We have now had at least six years without warming, &#8230;</p></blockquote>
<p>Of course, that&#8217;s not a trend.</p>
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		<title>By: Oliver Manuel</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/02/27/here-comes-the-sun-again/comment-page-4/#comment-73213</link>
		<dc:creator>Oliver Manuel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 Mar 2008 04:29:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/02/27/here-comes-the-sun-again/#comment-73213</guid>
		<description>Barton Paul Levenson,

Thank you for the comment.

If the Sun were a ball of hydrogen, heated by H-fusion in the solar core (the standard solar model), then your statement would be valid.

In fact, Nobel Laureate W. A. Fowler noted several years ago that the Sun is so massive that its annual energy output would drop by a negligible fraction over many years if H-fusion completely stopped in the solar core.

Such an object would not exhibit cycles of sunspots nor squirt out massive eruptions of energy like that Richard Carrington observed at 11:18 am on Thursday morning, September 1, 1859.

Although hydrogen covers the solar surface (like the red peel on an apple), many measurements since 1960 suggest that our Sun is the unstable remains of a supernova that exploded 5 billion years ago, ejected the material that now orbits it as planets, comets, moons and asteroids, and then re-formed on this unstable energy source:

http://www.omatumr.com/Photographs/Suns_core.htm

Within the past couple of weeks, NASA reported that such objects are explosively violent on very short time scales.

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Powerful_Explosions_Suggest_Neutron_Star_Missing_Link_999.html
With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Barton Paul Levenson,</p>
<p>Thank you for the comment.</p>
<p>If the Sun were a ball of hydrogen, heated by H-fusion in the solar core (the standard solar model), then your statement would be valid.</p>
<p>In fact, Nobel Laureate W. A. Fowler noted several years ago that the Sun is so massive that its annual energy output would drop by a negligible fraction over many years if H-fusion completely stopped in the solar core.</p>
<p>Such an object would not exhibit cycles of sunspots nor squirt out massive eruptions of energy like that Richard Carrington observed at 11:18 am on Thursday morning, September 1, 1859.</p>
<p>Although hydrogen covers the solar surface (like the red peel on an apple), many measurements since 1960 suggest that our Sun is the unstable remains of a supernova that exploded 5 billion years ago, ejected the material that now orbits it as planets, comets, moons and asteroids, and then re-formed on this unstable energy source:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.omatumr.com/Photographs/Suns_core.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.omatumr.com/Photographs/Suns_core.htm</a></p>
<p>Within the past couple of weeks, NASA reported that such objects are explosively violent on very short time scales.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Powerful_Explosions_Suggest_Neutron_Star_Missing_Link_999.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Powerful_Explosions_Suggest_Neutron_Star_Missing_Link_999.html</a><br />
With kind regards,<br />
Oliver K. Manuel</p>
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		<title>By: Barton Paul Levenson</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/02/27/here-comes-the-sun-again/comment-page-4/#comment-73212</link>
		<dc:creator>Barton Paul Levenson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Mar 2008 17:57:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/02/27/here-comes-the-sun-again/#comment-73212</guid>
		<description>Oliver K. Manual,

No doubt there have been anomalous momentary brightenings and dimmings of the sun.  But what counts is the average over a long enough time to make a difference.  I find that the average solar constant for 1859 was 1365.3 watts per square meter (Lean 2000).  The average for 1951-2000 was 1366.1 w m^-2.  Not much of a difference there.

See

Lean, Judith 2000. &quot;Evolution of the Sun&#039;s Spectral Irradiance Since the Maunder Minimum.&quot; Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 2425-2428.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oliver K. Manual,</p>
<p>No doubt there have been anomalous momentary brightenings and dimmings of the sun.  But what counts is the average over a long enough time to make a difference.  I find that the average solar constant for 1859 was 1365.3 watts per square meter (Lean 2000).  The average for 1951-2000 was 1366.1 w m^-2.  Not much of a difference there.</p>
<p>See</p>
<p>Lean, Judith 2000. &#8220;Evolution of the Sun&#8217;s Spectral Irradiance Since the Maunder Minimum.&#8221; Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 2425-2428.</p>
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		<title>By: Barton Paul Levenson</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/02/27/here-comes-the-sun-again/comment-page-4/#comment-73211</link>
		<dc:creator>Barton Paul Levenson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Mar 2008 17:49:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/02/27/here-comes-the-sun-again/#comment-73211</guid>
		<description>DAV writes:

[[&lt;i&gt;If, indeed, the trend since 2001 is downward&lt;/i&gt;]]

The trend of seven years?

Let me define &quot;climate&quot; for you:

Climate is the average weather over a large region, or the entire world, over a period of thirty years or more.

In any case, the trend in the past few years is up, not down:

http://members.aol.com/bpl1960/Ball.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>DAV writes:</p>
<p>[[<i>If, indeed, the trend since 2001 is downward</i>]]</p>
<p>The trend of seven years?</p>
<p>Let me define &#8220;climate&#8221; for you:</p>
<p>Climate is the average weather over a large region, or the entire world, over a period of thirty years or more.</p>
<p>In any case, the trend in the past few years is up, not down:</p>
<p><a href="http://members.aol.com/bpl1960/Ball.html" rel="nofollow">http://members.aol.com/bpl1960/Ball.html</a></p>
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