Sorry, folks – I kept getting an error message (a goobledegook weird
one actually), & I thought it hadn’t sent but turns it out, it had …

My apologies.

What if the kid heard someone associated with ESA or NASA say that Apophis wouldn’t be signifcantly affected by satellite collision. Then he correctly calculates that could it end up displaced by a few thousand kilometers after seven years. So then he thinks “Why this could be the difference a near miss and Caracas turned into a smouldering crater. Thats significant!!”

Meanwhile NASA has its own definition of significance. They couldn’t care less about Caracas! For them insignificant means much smaller than the margin of error in their calculations.

So anyway, when someone associated ESA or NASA confirms to the kid that his numbers are right he thinks he’s found something new. He submits it to a science fair. They confirm his calculations. He wins a prize. He gets in the newspapers.

NASA overreacts wildly at the hint that they got something wrong. And here we are. All because NASA doesn’t know the meaning of the word significant.

That’s my theory. Does anybody know what was in the kids actual contest entry?

******

Schoolboy challenges NASA ….? Or maybe not. Interesting urban legend but it seems that may be all this is :

NEWS RELEASE: 2008-063 April 16, 2008

NASA Statement on Student Asteroid Calculations

PASADENA, Calif. — The Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., has not changed its current estimates for the very low probability (1 in 45,000) of an Earth impact by the asteroid Apophis in 2036. Contrary to recent press reports, NASA offices involved in near-Earth object research were not contacted and have had no correspondence with a young German student, who claims the Apophis impact probability is far higher than the current estimate.

This student’s conclusion reportedly is based on the possibility of a collision with an artificial satellite during the asteroid’s close approach in April 2029. However, the asteroid will not pass near the main belt of geosynchronous satellites in 2029, and the chance of a collision with a satellite is exceedingly remote. Therefore, consideration of this satellite collision scenario does not affect the current impact probability estimate for Apophis, which remains at 1 in 45,000.

NASA detects and tracks asteroids and comets passing close to Earth. The Near Earth Object Observation Program, commonly called “Spaceguard,” discovers, characterizes and computes trajectories for these objects to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet.

For more information, visit http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov

For more information about JPL on the Internet, visit http://www.jpl.nasa.gov . For information about NASA, visit http://www.nasa.gov .

****

There’s also a blog article and discussion of this on the ‘Bad Astronomy’ website by noted astronomer, “bad science” debunker & author, Dr Phil Plait. See : http://www.badastronomy.com

(I think I’ve got that web link right – my apologies if not. A web search should find it pretty easily.)

Hope this is enlightening & best regards :

StevoR
—————————————————

“Earth’s windiest location is Cape Farewell, Greenland, where gale winds blow 16 % of the time.”
- NASA e-newsletter : “New Atlases use NASA data to chart ocean winds”, 2008 April 17th.

******

Schoolboy challenges NASA ….? Or maybe not. Interesting urban legend but it seems that may be all this is :

NEWS RELEASE: 2008-063 April 16, 2008

NASA Statement on Student Asteroid Calculations

PASADENA, Calif. — The Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., has not changed its current estimates for the very low probability (1 in 45,000) of an Earth impact by the asteroid Apophis in 2036. Contrary to recent press reports, NASA offices involved in near-Earth object research were not contacted and have had no correspondence with a young German student, who claims the Apophis impact probability is far higher than the current estimate.

This student’s conclusion reportedly is based on the possibility of a collision with an artificial satellite during the asteroid’s close approach in April 2029. However, the asteroid will not pass near the main belt of geosynchronous satellites in 2029, and the chance of a collision with a satellite is exceedingly remote. Therefore, consideration of this satellite collision scenario does not affect the current impact probability estimate for Apophis, which remains at 1 in 45,000.

NASA detects and tracks asteroids and comets passing close to Earth. The Near Earth Object Observation Program, commonly called “Spaceguard,” discovers, characterizes and computes trajectories for these objects to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet.

For more information, visit http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov

For more information about JPL on the Internet, visit http://www.jpl.nasa.gov . For information about NASA, visit http://www.nasa.gov .

****

There’s also a blog article and discussion of this on the ‘Bad Astronomy’ website by noted astronomer, “bad science” debunker & author, Dr Phil Plait. See : http://www.badastronomy.com

(I think I’ve got that web link right – my apologies if not. A web search should find it pretty easily.)

Hope this is enlightening & best regards :

StevoR
—————————————————

“Earth’s windiest location is Cape Farewell, Greenland, where gale winds blow 16 % of the time.”
- NASA e-newsletter : “New Atlases use NASA data to chart ocean winds”, 2008 April 17th.