The much-beleaguered Mars Science Laboratory — an ambitious and expensive rover/lander whose main purpose is to assess whether Mars can or ever could have supported microbial life — will be delayed by two years. It was set to launch in the fall of 2009, but it will be 2011 at least before it goes to Mars.
The MSL has been a source of a lot of woe. It has been plagued with cost overruns, timeline slips, and technical difficulties. That last bit is not surprising; the technology on this mission is extremely sophisticated and some of it is cutting-edge. Technical problems lead to both timeline problems as well as cost overruns, so these are all related. Also, the rover is huge: it’s the size of a golf cart (for comparison, the rovers Spirit and opportunity are about the size of a kid’s red wagon), meaning landing it is extremely tricky. Charles Elachi, director of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, likened it to a Cassini-class mission, and it has to actually land on another planet. The mission lifetime is supposed to be two years (compare that to the nominal 90 day planned lifetime for the current rovers), and the chemistry lab it carries to test the Martian environment is very sophisticated.
The lifetime cost of MSL is a little under $2 billion. This delay will add roughly $400 million to the lifetime cost, bringing the cost to about $2.2 – 2.3 billion. This will hurt other missions, of course, since NASA has a finite budget. Money will have to be shuffled, but "no cancellations are expected" (the cuts across the board will have to be spread over the next couple of years). This money will go to storing the mission hardware and further testing of all the equipment.
To be fair, most of the hardware is well on its way to being complete. Mike Griffin, NASA Administrator (aka the Big Cheese) stated that the main problem causing the delay is a problem in the rover’s actuator motors. NASA might be able to meet the initial launch date, but they want to be sure that such a big and expensive mission will operate as flawlessly as possible. There were quite a few technical difficulties that weren’t life-threatening, but still caused many delays.
The delays aren’t too bad in and of themselves, but the Universe forces the much longer delay. Mars and Earth both orbit the Sun, and the favorable launch positions of the two planets only occur roughly every 26 months. Each launch window lasts a few weeks, but if that’s missed, it takes two years before the next window opens. That’s why MSL won’t launch until 2011.
Griffin said that this mission is second only to manned missions, so they’re taking it very seriously. It’s too bad this has happened, and I hope the impact on other missions won’t make them feel the hurt too badly.
Sometimes I like to compare things like this to Hubble: it was over budget, took too long, and when it launched it had a terrible flaw that severely limited its usefulness… and now, no one talks about any of that at all, we talk more about the impact Hubble has had on the public’s awareness of astronomy (in positive terms). I suspect in a decade we’ll be saying the same sort of things about MSL. That doesn’t diminish the impact or the trouble NASA is feeling from MSL’s problems, but it’s sometimes good to keep these things in perspective.
Image courtesy NASA/JPL.
December 4th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Thank you for the update, even though the news isn’t stellar.
So, if the MSL breaks down on the surface of Mars, can we send a manned mission there to repair it?
December 4th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Nope, not stellar. More planetary, really.
December 4th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Correction offered: Spirit and Oppy are both about the size of golf carts. Pathfinder was about the size of a wagon. MSL will be about the size of a Mini Cooper.
December 4th, 2008 at 10:57 am
Secretly, as mush as I know how important the science is, and as much as I’d like to learn what MSL will discover, the kid in me is really excited that they’re sending a robot with a laser to Mars.
That’ll teach those pesky Martians!
December 4th, 2008 at 10:59 am
Dr. Phil Plait: “It was set to launch in the fall of 2009, but it will be 2011 at least before it goes to Mars.”
Why can’t you Americans just say “autumn” when referring to the season? “Fall” sounds religious to me, like “The ‘fall’ of Man”.
December 4th, 2008 at 11:02 am
@IVAN3MAN
Actually, “fall” sounds like pagan nature worship to me, like “The ‘fall’ of Leaves”.
December 4th, 2008 at 11:03 am
I don’t care if it takes an extra four years to get to Mars, just the feat and knowledge of landing a huge unmanned rover intact on another planet is worth the effort. Of course I’d rather it land and do all the science too.
I’d also like to see autonomous robots exploring planets as well. It is fairly easy to do on earth. I experiment with autonomous software (Neener Neener mom, you said writing computer games was a waste of time) that explore my house (although navigating over piles of my kids matchbox cars and Legos can be a challenge) on their own proves its viable. An independent long time self contained power supply is the big problem I see. I’ve even got it to track down a few chunks of granite. However, an hour on lithium batteries is fine for around the house…
December 4th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Better to launch late and work, than to rush and launch on time and fail.
December 4th, 2008 at 11:22 am
@Ivan and Todd W.:
I think that’s just nitpicking. We get the fact that most people that post here have a problem with religion, but come on, give it a rest.
December 4th, 2008 at 11:23 am
@RL
Well said. Something a lot more terrestrial manufacturers should learn *cough*Windows*cough*iPhone*cough*
December 4th, 2008 at 11:25 am
@Michael L
Easy, there. Just joking, hence the smiley. And I really have no problem with religion. So, relax. Sit back. Have some mulled cider.
December 4th, 2008 at 11:36 am
Oy vey.
Why is it that I fear that now that we’ve come to expect such excellent performance on Mars, this thing’ll break down after 90 days?
GUT give that this’ll be a new Hubble. Please.
December 4th, 2008 at 11:37 am
My favorite Hubble pic is the first Deep Field, where it looked at a seemingly empty bit of space for like a week, and found thousands of galaxies. That was impressive. Spirit and Opportunity have amazed me with their longevity, as have the orbiters (the ones that made it there.) take your time, NASA, and do it right.
p.s. If the name of the season was based on that particular religious theme, wouldn’t it be called “Fell?”
December 4th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Todd W., what about some glogg? I could use some here at work for sure! (Yes IVAN3MAN, I am taking a cognitive break!).
Glad you caught the play on words there Erik.
By the way, congratulations to you and the wife. She’s a beaut!
December 4th, 2008 at 11:42 am
Gryfin210:
December 4th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
IVAN3MAN – Why Can’t you non Americans just do away with your pathetic customs and inferior culture and except your American overlords spoken lexicon?
December 4th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
NASA Delays Mars Mission – Pelosi Confirmed A Dangerous Stooge
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The much-beleaguered Mars Science Laboratory — an ambitious and expensive rover/lander whose main purpose is to assess whether Mars can or ever could have supported microbial life — will be delayed by two years. It was set …
December 4th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Ohhhh nit picking about seasons. I don’t recall Florida having a “fall” or “Autumn”
How about “The later half of 2011″ or “3rd quarter of 2011″ 
December 4th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
@ Michael L,
As long as Young-Earth Creationists insist on stating that the Earth and the Universe is less than 10,000 years’ old — and that I’m going to hell if I don’t agree with them — then I’m going to have a problem with bloody religion.
@ Larian LeQuella,
Careful there, Larian. To much cider and you’ll be sleeping on the job. Then you’ll really be in trouble with your superiors!
@ Todd W.,
Somebody mentioned stellar? How about some Stella Artois?
December 4th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
I don’t recall Florida having a “fall” or “Autumn”
Around the Cape Canaveral area, fall is when the afternoon thunderstorms become less frequent, the temperatures drop to human-survivable levels and the mosquito numbers drop from over a google-plex per square mile to the billions.
Seriously, it is a welcome break from the stifling humidity of summer.
December 4th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
This “Fall” – is this the season when the American Empire falls faster???
Saying “Autumn” is no better, as it only applies to the Northern hemisphere of the Earth. I live in New Zealand, and find the seasons in North America are 6 months out of kilter with local reality.
Back on the main topic: I am very gllad they are not rushing the project to its doom,. and that it is still going ahead.
December 4th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Gotta say, the news doesn’t bother me at all. 2011 isn’t that much longer to wait. And we do not want to launch this one and then find out the main lens is out of true. I really want them to get it right the first time for this one.
December 4th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
[...] Blogs / Bad Astronomy « NASA delays next Mars mission by two years [...]
December 4th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Thank you so much for the perspective of Hubble. NASA wants to make sure to do things right and sending astronauts to fix it wouldn’t be an option.
The picture comparing relative sizes of the rovers was fantastic.
Thanks!
December 4th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Let’s see, the MSL will reach Mars in 2011 at the earliest, giving us about a year or so of info before the world goes splat in 2012. Right?
December 4th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Robert Elliott: “Why Can’t you non Americans just do away with your pathetic customs and inferior culture and except your American overlords spoken lexicon?”
Don’t you mean ‘accept’? “Except” means: With the exclusion of; other than; but.
Hmm… if it wasn’t for England and its customs, then who would maintain the English language standard?
December 4th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Obviously this mission is being delayed so the vehicle’s on-board obstacle avoidance software can be reprogrammed to recognize stray bits of lumber strewn about.
December 4th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
@Robert Elliot:
And while we’re at it (Ivan3Man beat me to the punch on “accept” vs. “except”), your message might be better received if you had punctuated it properly (there needs to be an apostrophe at the end of “overlords” to indicate it’s a plural possessive).
December 4th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
I’m sooooo pissed; we spent 4 years developing a minor component for that thing, and got thrown out of the program due to a decision deadline with 3 months of acceptance testing to go. And now they park it for 2 years…
I was so looking forward to jump up every time they show it on TV and say “that’s my doohickey on Mars”.
December 4th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
ya’ll is too edjumacayted in english. Don’t ya’ll know there are regional di’lects, variations and sla’ang?
December 4th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
The two year delay is regrettable for those who work on this project and for those who support and follow their work. Damn shame, I say.
Of course, it does mean that some unsolved problems now have much more time to be solved and those systems that are working have two years of tweak time coming.
In all it will probably prove to be a boon to the entire enterprise.
December 4th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
@Todd W.:
Hmmmm… mulled cider… yummmmmm
December 4th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
This will make for a better rover in the long run.
December 4th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Actually, the American version of English is responsible for keeping many aspects of old English alive when they have changed or been done away with in the rest of the English-speaking world, such as Fall instead of Autumn and the spelling of words such as color, humor, neighbor, etc. And what about “…ize” vs “…ise”?
December 4th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
I’m a little bit ambivalent about MSL for the following reason. Don’t forget that the Mars Curse is still in effect. The failure rate for Mars missions is something like 50 percent (19 out of 38 missions have failed) which means there’s a 50-50 chance that MSL might become a $2 billion paperweight somewhere on the surface of Mars or at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean.
There’s a little bit on Wikipedia concerning the mission. The lander weighs almost a metric ton (900 kg which is 5 times what Spirit/Opportunity weighed) with a mission duration of 686 sols. Oooo, I see it’s power source is RTG (radioisotope thermal generator) – that ought to make the environmental types go bonkers. I can just see the following GreenPeace protest – Make Mars a Nuclear Free Zone!!! Hell No, We Won’t Go, Off to the Red Planet, No!, No!, No!
Looks like they have some real science instruments on the sucker. Something called MAHLI which is a microscope with resolution down to 12.5 microns. Something called ChemCam:
“ChemCam is a remote Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) system that can target a rock from up to 13 meters away, vaporizing a small amount of the underlying mineral and then collecting a spectrum of the light emitted by the vaporized rock by using a micro-imaging camera with an angular resolution of 80 microradians. It is being developed by the Los Alamos National Laboratory and the French CESR laboratory.”
Wow!, that sounds pretty cool zapping a rock up to 40 feet away to get a spectrum. Just don’t shoot yourself in the footpad with that thing, fella. I just wish they could send it to some really neat place on Mars like Eos Chasma in Valles Marineris (thought to be the originating location of the meteorite ALH 84001).
I sure hope the Mars Curse doesn’t get it.
December 4th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
(for comparison, the rovers Spirit and opportunity are about the size of a kid’s red wagon)
What kind of huge wagon did YOU have as a kid??? o.O
Maybe you’re thinking of the Pathfinder which is the wagon sized one in this image.
December 5th, 2008 at 1:28 am
@ Tom Marking
We’re skeptics here, we don’t believe in curses :- )
We also don’t believe that the Mars Space Defense Initiative downed half of our missions.
(Critics of the MSDI have cited the low success rate as proof that the whole program is just a big defense industry boondoggle, while program defenders remind the public that this is a developing technology and early successes should be cause for optimism. Some analysts have even suggested that MSDI has failed on purpose, lest the Terrans become suspicious, noting that all successful alien landings have been in desolate places far from any city, forest, or crystal mag-lev network. One critic replied, “That robot rolled right over that abandoned railroad tie without a second look. How smart could they be?”)
December 6th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Phil, this is sort of off topic, but I stopped by my local bookstore yesterday (it’s family owned), and I decided to stop by their science section. Geuss what? They had Death From the Skies! Mind you that’s pretty impressive since their science section (and similarly all their other non-fiction sections) takes up about three 2-foot shelves.
February 28th, 2009 at 6:35 am
Why Mr Zubrin multiple BALLONS mission have never been consider by NASA…? Is a unexpensive alternative to survey the Planet