Update:
First, everything is fine! The ISS is safe, and the astronauts are alive and back to work.
Here’s the story. Today at 16:39 (UT), a small piece of space debris passed by the International Space Station. Orbit predictions put it close enough to the ISS to be a real danger, though the actual collisions odds were low. Astronauts closed all the hatches in the station and moved to the Soyuz escape module to wait it out. After the debris passed safely, they emerged, opened up all the hatches, and got back to work.
It’s still not known as I write this just how close the debris passed. It was a piece of a used booster called a Payload Assist Module, a device used to boost satellites from low Earth orbit up to geosynchronous orbit. Robert Pearlman from CollectSpace told me:
This object is the “yo weight” from a Delta PAM-D stage (used to launch GPS 37 in 1993). The yo weight is a small mass attached to a 1-meter-long cable, used to tumble the stage after separation from the payload so it doesn’t recontact.
The mass is probably less than 1 kg, but because it’s basically a piece of string, the cross-section is large for its mass.
A 1 kg mass moving at a relative speed of several kilometers per second could have done vast damage to the ISS, especially since it was not compact like a chunk of metal, but extended. It could have torn a huge hole in the station, and I imagine the astronauts are breathing a huge sigh of relief.
The good news here is that this object, though small, was tracked well enough to give the astronauts on the ISS plenty of time to evacuate… and don’t overlook the fact that the astronauts did a great job handling the situation (whereas I would be very busy screaming and wetting myself). This was an extraordinary event handled by extraordinary people. My sincere thanks to those who took care of it, and congratulations as well.
Also, my thanks to Nancy Atkinson of Universe Today for breaking this story and updating Twitter so fervently.
Here is my original post on this:
Nancy Atkinson is on top of the story that a small piece of orbital debris might hit the space station at 11:39 Central (US) time, less than 40 minutes from the time I write this. Astronauts on board are preparing for this potential impact. Follow her Twitter feed for more info. You can also watch NASA TV for info.
March 12th, 2009 at 10:11 am
I smell a Hollywood blockbuster!
Seriously, though, I really hope that if the debris hits, it doesn’t cause any major damage.
March 12th, 2009 at 10:16 am
Don’t forget to give credit to Chris Bergin over at NASA Spaceflight, who Atkinson credits in her post.
March 12th, 2009 at 10:22 am
While I hope everyone stays safe, maybe this will be the event that finally gets governments taking this subject seriously.
March 12th, 2009 at 10:30 am
Strange. NASA TV appears to be showing file footage.
March 12th, 2009 at 10:32 am
I hope everyone stays safe. Do we know what the debris is from or how big it is?
March 12th, 2009 at 10:32 am
A finite chance as opposed to an infinite chance? I think you mean a small but nonzero chance. Sorry, pet peeve.
March 12th, 2009 at 10:35 am
Steve, under Channels select “Live Space Station Video.” The channel is currently just showing a live map depicting where the ISS is, but it’s also playing the communications (which have been largely silent).
March 12th, 2009 at 10:35 am
Here,s to hoping it won’t cause too much damage or will totally miss.
March 12th, 2009 at 10:36 am
@Steve – Yeah, I see that too. I was hoping for updates or something
March 12th, 2009 at 10:37 am
You have to switch channels on NASA TV to the Live Space Station feed. It is showing a map as the video, but there’s audio of the communication between the crew and the ground. They’ve moved the crew into the Soyuz.
March 12th, 2009 at 10:38 am
Confirmed, NASA TV is showing file footage of a bunch of Americans and Russians patting each other on the back and drinking.
Which I endorse, of course.
But I’d still like some updated news…
March 12th, 2009 at 10:40 am
Go to the ISS feed, its live, 2nd choice on the menu list
March 12th, 2009 at 10:41 am
What if they do get hit? What’t the plan then?
March 12th, 2009 at 10:41 am
My bad 3rd choice
March 12th, 2009 at 10:42 am
NASA TV! AAAAAAARGH! Why are you so lame when you should be so great?!
March 12th, 2009 at 10:43 am
They are buttoned up in the Soyuz capsule, not sure if they closed the door, switched over to Russian control and I don’t speak Russian
March 12th, 2009 at 10:44 am
@Ray: That would’ve meant they bail with Soyuz. They were hiding in it.
March 12th, 2009 at 10:46 am
Cleared. Whew.
March 12th, 2009 at 10:46 am
Woot, sounds good! No impact.
March 12th, 2009 at 10:46 am
No impact. Relieved.
March 12th, 2009 at 10:47 am
That was a really scary few minutes hitting the F5 refresh. Let’s not do that again. (I know, this will probably become more and more common)
March 12th, 2009 at 10:47 am
Whew, it’s OK. They’re starting to leave Soyuz. Then comes the leak test
March 12th, 2009 at 10:47 am
Yahoo they missed the debris!!!!!!!!!! Going back into the station. Naughty astronauts, left their checklist on the station. Oops.
March 12th, 2009 at 10:47 am
PHEW!!! they’re OK!
March 12th, 2009 at 10:48 am
That was tense!
March 12th, 2009 at 10:59 am
that was really intense.. glad everything’s ok!
March 12th, 2009 at 11:00 am
Phew. Glad everything turned out okay.
I caught part of me being relieved that the Shuttle launch yesterday was scrubbed so that the orbiter wouldn’t be vulnerable too… then I caught myself, as I take it they wouldn’t have rendezvoused with the station yet, would they?
— Steve
March 12th, 2009 at 11:01 am
Until the next piece of space junk approaches…
Really though, isn’t the risk just going to increase with time as more junk accumulates up there?
March 12th, 2009 at 11:01 am
Fincke communication from a few moments ago: “Houston, if you find out later, we would be very interested in knowing how close it came to us.” (paraphrased)
March 12th, 2009 at 11:09 am
Didn’t know that NASA TV had continuous live feeds from the ISS (thought it was only during launches). Pretty cool.
March 12th, 2009 at 11:12 am
If that PAM (Payload Assist Module) had hit the ISS it would have spun it like a top. This would have made the Soyuz hard to control at best, uncontrollable at worst. -YIKES!-
Twitter was all over this one. Main stream media has largely missed it.
March 12th, 2009 at 11:18 am
Finite chance? Can’t they just rotate the station 90 degrees and make the chance imaginary?
Wow. Bad math humor. Ignore me. :-\
Seriously, though, I really hope that if the debris hits, it doesn’t cause any major damage.
Isn’t it better (philosophically, at least) to hope that it doesn’t hit at all?
I know! Let’s all pray!
March 12th, 2009 at 11:22 am
[...] Actualización: Más info en http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/03/12/breaking-small-but-finite-chance-iss-to-be... [...]
March 12th, 2009 at 11:27 am
@QD
I thought that the hoping it doesn’t hit went without saying.
March 12th, 2009 at 11:36 am
Am I the only one that is just constantly amazed that we were even able to track a piece of debris so small, floating over the planet, and predict that there was a risk of it hitting the ISS? I’m guilty of losing my awe of computer technology (shouldn’t I be in a total state of amazement that I can send photos from my phone to a friend in Germany within seconds?), but stuff like this just makes me feel like a kid again.
March 12th, 2009 at 11:37 am
CNN was on it when the announcement was made. But I haven’t been watching since then.
March 12th, 2009 at 11:39 am
Whew! A near miss.
“Isn’t that a near hit?”
Shut up Carlin, you’re dead!
March 12th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
Mosse,
I too am amazed at the resolving power of their radar. By comparison, the lost toolbag must look like a 747.
March 12th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
“Small, but finite”?
Can you give an example of a number which is small but NOT finite?
March 12th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
@MH:
pi / 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
March 12th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
Phil, you should do a write up on the Kessler Syndrome.
March 12th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
“Can you give an example of a number which is small but NOT finite?”
Delved much in quantum mechanics?
March 12th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
@MH
I think “small but finite” simply means “not infinitely small” which, I guess, means “not zero”
Though I never did well in math, so somebody please correct me if I’m wrong.
March 12th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Space Station Threatened
The International Space Station was evacuated today for about ten minutes, because of the threat posed by orbiting space debris.
…
March 12th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
Phil said: “whereas I would be very busy screaming and wetting myself”
Funny! I believe that’s listed under “Top 10 Things to Not Say During Your Astronaut Interview”. It comes right after “I am afraid of rockets”.
March 12th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
@holastefan
“Top 10 Things to Not Say During Your Astronaut Interview”
#1 has to be Jack Handy’s quote:
“Fear can sometimes be a useful emotion. For instance, let’s say you’re an astronaut on the moon and you fear that your partner has been turned into Dracula. The next time he goes out for the moon pieces, wham!, you just slam the door behind him and blast off. He might call you on the radio and say he’s not Dracula, but you just say, ‘Think again, bat man.’”
March 12th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
@Caleb: He might call you on the radio and say he’s not Dracula
I possibly may have just soiled myself laughing. Classic!
It’s a good thing I wasn’t an ISS crew member today — I would have just grabbed the keys to the Soyuz, and said “I’m outta here!!” instead of waiting for any Houstonian parental permission.
March 12th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
Has the ISS crew ever gotten this close to evac in response to space junk in the past? Surely NASA isn’t suddenly being more cautious about potential collisions just because of the recent Iridium collision raised public awareness of space debris, but it is interesting that the two happened so close together, and I suspect the mainstream will give more attention to this incident because of that coincidence.
March 12th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Can’t we put big (friggin’) lasers on the ISS to deflect this stuff? They’re wasting tonnes of money of Bush’s Star Wars II (Electric Boogaloo), might as well put them to *good* use.
March 12th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
How do they know what the piece of debris was from?
March 12th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
@kebsis
My guess is that they’ve been tracking it since it became space debris.
March 12th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
What a mess.
The BBC article claims:
I believe I read that it happened last in December, but I can’t seem to find it now.
[OB BA pun:]
Considering it happened over 100 km up, shouldn’t that be an up2date?
March 12th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
“A finite chance as opposed to an infinite chance? I think you mean a small but nonzero chance. Sorry, pet peeve.”
“Small but nonzero chance “? As opposed to “small but zero chance”?
I think he means “a small chance.” There’s no “…but x” qualification needed.
March 12th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
@sili
Lasers powered how? Also wouldn’t you get the same problems that you encounter with meteors, as in the mass is still moving towards you at a really unpleasant rate of knots? Not to mention that there might be some protest at turning the ISS into the ultimate satellite killer.
March 12th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
[...] near hit of the ISS and a piece of space debris was quite the sensation this morning. It’s given me some things to think [...]
March 12th, 2009 at 5:55 pm
Our BAD Astronomer mentions that the closing velocity was km/sec but I’ve not been able to find verification of that anywhere. Does anyone know what the deltaV relative to the ISS of this piece of junk REALLY was? On average, deltaV’s should be no where near several km/sec. Of course, hundreds of miles per HOUR for junk of this mass would still be quite dangerous.
Maybe it’s time for the ISS to get it’s own AESA, so alarms can be sounded and the station even moved automatically for low velocity approaches undetected from the ground.
March 12th, 2009 at 9:12 pm
So, nuts and loose screws are threats to people in space as well?
March 13th, 2009 at 2:16 am
Send out Chuck Norris to handle the debris
March 13th, 2009 at 3:21 am
[...] details at Bad Astronomy, the BBC, and the [...]
March 13th, 2009 at 7:21 am
Well, that’s one of the great things about working in a space suit – you can wet yourself and nobody notices.
March 13th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
Astronauts, man…. They’re SO BRAVE!! They deserve more money. Much more.
March 13th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
Star wars x-ray lasers were powered by nuclear explosions. According to Wikipedia the tests were inconclusive.
[But also, nations would take a dim view of launching nuclear material, as well as having nuclear devices in orbit.]
March 13th, 2009 at 8:34 pm
Perhaps a stupid question.
We have three people on the station. So there is, roughly speaking, probably a 30 to 1 chance that passing space debris would hit have hitable parts of the station, not the lander. (Or do they reorient the ISS to try to keep the lander safe. What are the odds that the lander could still be hit?
But more importantly. Wouldn’t it be better to leave one astronaut in the station and send two to the capsule?
Indeed. I suspect If all modules were sealed, it might be better to spread the space explorers to the various sections with food, water, (Spacesuits?) in order to ensure a better survival chance of all?
These are questions from someone who hasn’t done the math and (perhaps most stupidly) doesn’t know the orientation of the craft at any given time.
But to put all your eggs in one basket. Why does NASA do that?
March 16th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
[...] No, this is not a repeat from a few days ago: NASA is tracking a piece of orbital debris that will pass uncomfortably close to the Space Station tonight. At 07:14 UT it’ll pass about 800 meters (about half a mile) from the ISS, much closer than last week’s 5 km (3 miles) miss. [...]