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	<title>Comments on: Flying the meteoric skies</title>
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	<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/06/05/flying-the-meteoric-skies/</link>
	<description>I am an astronomer, writer, and skeptic. I likes reality the way it is, and I aims to keep it that way. My real name is Phil Plait, and I run the Bad Astronomy blog.</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2009 07:54:38 -0600</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: mars</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/06/05/flying-the-meteoric-skies/comment-page-2/#comment-192140</link>
		<dc:creator>mars</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Jun 2009 22:03:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/06/05/flying-the-meteoric-skies/#comment-192140</guid>
		<description>To those that think a meteor and/or meteor shower could not have brought down AF 0447, here&#039;s something to think about.
On June 1 the asteroid KR21 was supposed to be in it’s closest proximity to the earth. Within a 0.7 LD, that’s barely 167,000 miles from the earth, according to spaceweather.com website . Could debris from this rather large asteroid, 21 meters in size, filter through the earth’s atmosphere and have a direct strike on the aircraft? This may sound like a highly improbable scenario in regards to aircraft, then again so are all the other theories such as a lightning strike or hail storm bringing down a modern aircraft equipped with all the latest in flight technology. If there were means of tracking meteors and/or meteor showers or space junk debris via orbiting satellite or radar, I wonder if such data could reveal a different story to the demise of AF 0447.

P.s. Here are some links to the spaceweather.com and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory websites archives for the June 1 meteoric events. Also, links to articles on space debris.
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&amp;day=01&amp;month=06&amp;year=2009
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2009%20KR21;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=1#cad
http://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/
http://www.space.com/spacewatch/space_junk.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To those that think a meteor and/or meteor shower could not have brought down AF 0447, here&#8217;s something to think about.<br />
On June 1 the asteroid KR21 was supposed to be in it’s closest proximity to the earth. Within a 0.7 LD, that’s barely 167,000 miles from the earth, according to spaceweather.com website . Could debris from this rather large asteroid, 21 meters in size, filter through the earth’s atmosphere and have a direct strike on the aircraft? This may sound like a highly improbable scenario in regards to aircraft, then again so are all the other theories such as a lightning strike or hail storm bringing down a modern aircraft equipped with all the latest in flight technology. If there were means of tracking meteors and/or meteor showers or space junk debris via orbiting satellite or radar, I wonder if such data could reveal a different story to the demise of AF 0447.</p>
<p>P.s. Here are some links to the spaceweather.com and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory websites archives for the June 1 meteoric events. Also, links to articles on space debris.<br />
<a href="http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&#038;day=01&#038;month=06&#038;year=2009" rel="nofollow">http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&#038;day=01&#038;month=06&#038;year=2009</a><br />
<a href="http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2009%20KR21;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=1#cad" rel="nofollow">http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2009%20KR21;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=1#cad</a><br />
<a href="http://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/" rel="nofollow">http://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.space.com/spacewatch/space_junk.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.space.com/spacewatch/space_junk.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: J. Steven York</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/06/05/flying-the-meteoric-skies/comment-page-2/#comment-189519</link>
		<dc:creator>J. Steven York</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Jun 2009 04:22:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/06/05/flying-the-meteoric-skies/#comment-189519</guid>
		<description>(continued from previous, prematurely posted comment)
If you punch a hole in the roof, you might depressurize the cabin (and even this takes a surprisingly large hole) and injure or kill one or more passengers.  But the plane would likely survive.  

If you hit a leading edge on a wing it is (unlike the space shuttle) unlikely to do critical damage.  

Striking the top of the wing would likely result in a fuel leak, but the critical hydraulic lines and structural wing spar offer much smaller and better protected targets.  

The front of the cockpit might be an especially vulnerable area (assuming the strike takes out both pilots, or happens when only one is in his/her seat), but again, that&#039;s probably just the windows and the area right around them.

The tail surfaces are probably the most vulnerable, though if the assumption is correct that a strike would be head-on, even those should be pretty robust, and again, small targets.

What strikes me as interesting is the idea that aircraft may have already struck smaller meteors and nobody noticed.  As an earlier poster mentioned, anything that didn&#039;t penetrate the skin would likely be mistaken for a bird strike, hail, or a foreign object kicked up on a runway.  The people reporting and investigating these things likely would have no idea what to look for to spot such an impact.

But I&#039;m pretty sure that such incidents and repairs are maticuliously documented and recorded. and it might be possible for an industrious researcher with better knowledge of  meteors to dig through them an spot previously missed impacts (if any).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>(continued from previous, prematurely posted comment)<br />
If you punch a hole in the roof, you might depressurize the cabin (and even this takes a surprisingly large hole) and injure or kill one or more passengers.  But the plane would likely survive.  </p>
<p>If you hit a leading edge on a wing it is (unlike the space shuttle) unlikely to do critical damage.  </p>
<p>Striking the top of the wing would likely result in a fuel leak, but the critical hydraulic lines and structural wing spar offer much smaller and better protected targets.  </p>
<p>The front of the cockpit might be an especially vulnerable area (assuming the strike takes out both pilots, or happens when only one is in his/her seat), but again, that&#8217;s probably just the windows and the area right around them.</p>
<p>The tail surfaces are probably the most vulnerable, though if the assumption is correct that a strike would be head-on, even those should be pretty robust, and again, small targets.</p>
<p>What strikes me as interesting is the idea that aircraft may have already struck smaller meteors and nobody noticed.  As an earlier poster mentioned, anything that didn&#8217;t penetrate the skin would likely be mistaken for a bird strike, hail, or a foreign object kicked up on a runway.  The people reporting and investigating these things likely would have no idea what to look for to spot such an impact.</p>
<p>But I&#8217;m pretty sure that such incidents and repairs are maticuliously documented and recorded. and it might be possible for an industrious researcher with better knowledge of  meteors to dig through them an spot previously missed impacts (if any).</p>
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		<title>By: J. Steven York</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/06/05/flying-the-meteoric-skies/comment-page-2/#comment-189514</link>
		<dc:creator>J. Steven York</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Jun 2009 04:10:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/06/05/flying-the-meteoric-skies/#comment-189514</guid>
		<description>The amount of damage a commercial airliner can sustain and survive is both amazingly high, and amazingly low.  It just depends where and what kind of damage is sustained.  

The Boeing 737 that landed in Hawaii with most of its roof missing is an extreme example of the former.  But note that, while the damage there looked (and was) severe, most of the planes critical systems (and a lot of its structure) is in the lower half of the fuselage.

On the other hand, a few metal shavings in rudder actuators have apparently been enough to bring down multiple 737s over the years (obviously this isn&#039;t an example of externally caused damage, but it does demonstrate how a small failure at a critical point can doom an aircraft).

In general, modern aircraft are very robust, and have enough redundancy of critical systems to survive all sort of damage.  I suppose you could come up with some sort of &quot;critical damage target area&quot; for any given aircraft, and using this would bring down the likelihood of a meteor-impact loss even farther.

But even that doesn&#039;t take into account the KIND of impact.  Speed, area, mass, and the mechanical characteristics of the rock would have to be taken into consideration.  A pebble sized rock traveling at a few hundred miles per hour isn&#039;t likely to do much damage unless it hits a particularlly vulnerable area.  It might damage a window in a cockpit.  It might even cause an engine failure, though such failures are rarely fatal these days.

I suppose it might also damage a fuel tank, but that&#039;s unlikely to be as catastrophic a problem as an earlier poster imagines.  Burning jet fuel requires an ignition source and a proper fuel-air mixture, and the flame would have to burn close to the structure of the aircraft before being swept away in the slipstream.  Most likely, it would simply result in a fuel leak with out ignition, with all the problems that result from that.  Assuming the fuel loss didn&#039;t result in an emergency landing, I&#039;d imagine the pilot would notice the fuel loss and probably run (or vent) the tank dry before landing as a precaution.

A large, slow moving boulder, on the other hand, could do considerable damage no matter where it hit.  (So would a dropped piano, for that matter, if Mars were to toss one down as it passes by.)

But when you think about it, it comes back to the same issues as the Hawaii 737.  Unless the meteor is very large, or very fast, it is rather less likely to do critical damage, as the most vulnerable systems are mostly on the bottom (structure, landing gear, hydraulics, electrical system) or on the rear (control surfaces).  If you punch a hole in the roof, you might depressurize the cabin</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The amount of damage a commercial airliner can sustain and survive is both amazingly high, and amazingly low.  It just depends where and what kind of damage is sustained.  </p>
<p>The Boeing 737 that landed in Hawaii with most of its roof missing is an extreme example of the former.  But note that, while the damage there looked (and was) severe, most of the planes critical systems (and a lot of its structure) is in the lower half of the fuselage.</p>
<p>On the other hand, a few metal shavings in rudder actuators have apparently been enough to bring down multiple 737s over the years (obviously this isn&#8217;t an example of externally caused damage, but it does demonstrate how a small failure at a critical point can doom an aircraft).</p>
<p>In general, modern aircraft are very robust, and have enough redundancy of critical systems to survive all sort of damage.  I suppose you could come up with some sort of &#8220;critical damage target area&#8221; for any given aircraft, and using this would bring down the likelihood of a meteor-impact loss even farther.</p>
<p>But even that doesn&#8217;t take into account the KIND of impact.  Speed, area, mass, and the mechanical characteristics of the rock would have to be taken into consideration.  A pebble sized rock traveling at a few hundred miles per hour isn&#8217;t likely to do much damage unless it hits a particularlly vulnerable area.  It might damage a window in a cockpit.  It might even cause an engine failure, though such failures are rarely fatal these days.</p>
<p>I suppose it might also damage a fuel tank, but that&#8217;s unlikely to be as catastrophic a problem as an earlier poster imagines.  Burning jet fuel requires an ignition source and a proper fuel-air mixture, and the flame would have to burn close to the structure of the aircraft before being swept away in the slipstream.  Most likely, it would simply result in a fuel leak with out ignition, with all the problems that result from that.  Assuming the fuel loss didn&#8217;t result in an emergency landing, I&#8217;d imagine the pilot would notice the fuel loss and probably run (or vent) the tank dry before landing as a precaution.</p>
<p>A large, slow moving boulder, on the other hand, could do considerable damage no matter where it hit.  (So would a dropped piano, for that matter, if Mars were to toss one down as it passes by.)</p>
<p>But when you think about it, it comes back to the same issues as the Hawaii 737.  Unless the meteor is very large, or very fast, it is rather less likely to do critical damage, as the most vulnerable systems are mostly on the bottom (structure, landing gear, hydraulics, electrical system) or on the rear (control surfaces).  If you punch a hole in the roof, you might depressurize the cabin</p>
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		<title>By: coolstar</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/06/05/flying-the-meteoric-skies/comment-page-2/#comment-189480</link>
		<dc:creator>coolstar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Jun 2009 23:34:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/06/05/flying-the-meteoric-skies/#comment-189480</guid>
		<description>Back of the envelope calcs are like potatoe chips, once you start, it&#039;s hard to stop:  A reasonable guess is that the area of planes on the ground is at least 10 times that of those in the air (including planes out of service).  Another reasonable guess is that the kinetic energy of a bird strike is roughly the same as that of a meteorite hit to a plane at cruising altitude (yeah, the meteorite maybe has an average speed (delta V, of course) twice as high or so, but the average bird may mass roughly 4x that of a small meteorite etc. etc.).   The FAA, naturally, keeps quite good stats on bird strikes: the chance of any given flight having one is roughly 1 in 10,000. In 2009 we know of exactly one airliner that was downed by a bird strike (multiple engines are a GOOD thing)  so we can set that as a reasonable guess as the fraction of meteor strikes that will cause a plane crash.  So the chances of an airliner being downed by a meteor strike is roughly 1/100000 of that of a plane on the ground being hit.  Yeah, I cheated and looked up the FAA stats, but I was going to use something between 1000 and 10,000 anyway.........</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Back of the envelope calcs are like potatoe chips, once you start, it&#8217;s hard to stop:  A reasonable guess is that the area of planes on the ground is at least 10 times that of those in the air (including planes out of service).  Another reasonable guess is that the kinetic energy of a bird strike is roughly the same as that of a meteorite hit to a plane at cruising altitude (yeah, the meteorite maybe has an average speed (delta V, of course) twice as high or so, but the average bird may mass roughly 4x that of a small meteorite etc. etc.).   The FAA, naturally, keeps quite good stats on bird strikes: the chance of any given flight having one is roughly 1 in 10,000. In 2009 we know of exactly one airliner that was downed by a bird strike (multiple engines are a GOOD thing)  so we can set that as a reasonable guess as the fraction of meteor strikes that will cause a plane crash.  So the chances of an airliner being downed by a meteor strike is roughly 1/100000 of that of a plane on the ground being hit.  Yeah, I cheated and looked up the FAA stats, but I was going to use something between 1000 and 10,000 anyway&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: coolstar</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/06/05/flying-the-meteoric-skies/comment-page-2/#comment-189466</link>
		<dc:creator>coolstar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Jun 2009 22:14:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/06/05/flying-the-meteoric-skies/#comment-189466</guid>
		<description>Maybe Phil should hire John Weiss as his consultant for back of the envelope calculations.  It could certainly lower his rate of stupid mistakes.  The comparison of the surface area of in-flight planes to that of people on the planet is particularly clever.
   Since it&#039;s obvious that the speed of the plane doesn&#039;t change the calculation by enough to worry about, another way to approach the problem is asking how many airplanes ON THE GROUND have ever been hit by meteorites.  A decent starting guess is that a typical airliner may spend about 0.25 of it&#039;s lifetime actually in the air.  Since we&#039;re doing back of the envelope calculations, being off by a fact of a few here doesn&#039;t matter much.  So, if you can&#039;t find any reports of airplanes on the ground being hit, there&#039;s a very good chance that none have been hit (much less DOWNED) while flying.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Maybe Phil should hire John Weiss as his consultant for back of the envelope calculations.  It could certainly lower his rate of stupid mistakes.  The comparison of the surface area of in-flight planes to that of people on the planet is particularly clever.<br />
   Since it&#8217;s obvious that the speed of the plane doesn&#8217;t change the calculation by enough to worry about, another way to approach the problem is asking how many airplanes ON THE GROUND have ever been hit by meteorites.  A decent starting guess is that a typical airliner may spend about 0.25 of it&#8217;s lifetime actually in the air.  Since we&#8217;re doing back of the envelope calculations, being off by a fact of a few here doesn&#8217;t matter much.  So, if you can&#8217;t find any reports of airplanes on the ground being hit, there&#8217;s a very good chance that none have been hit (much less DOWNED) while flying.</p>
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		<title>By: Gavin Flower</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/06/05/flying-the-meteoric-skies/comment-page-2/#comment-189462</link>
		<dc:creator>Gavin Flower</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Jun 2009 21:59:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/06/05/flying-the-meteoric-skies/#comment-189462</guid>
		<description>Hmm...

I wonder if it could have been a meteor strike, followed by hitting severe turbulence and electrical storms - each individually survivable, but not in combination?  From the BBC article (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8087303.stm), the aircraft had at least one problem that it survived that caused loss of radio contact, and it did not crash until many minutes later.

As someone else pointed out, several aircraft could have already have been hit by meteors without people ralizing it was meteors causing the damage.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hmm&#8230;</p>
<p>I wonder if it could have been a meteor strike, followed by hitting severe turbulence and electrical storms &#8211; each individually survivable, but not in combination?  From the BBC article (<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8087303.stm)" rel="nofollow">http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8087303.stm)</a>, the aircraft had at least one problem that it survived that caused loss of radio contact, and it did not crash until many minutes later.</p>
<p>As someone else pointed out, several aircraft could have already have been hit by meteors without people ralizing it was meteors causing the damage.</p>
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		<title>By: Gary Ansorge</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/06/05/flying-the-meteoric-skies/comment-page-2/#comment-189457</link>
		<dc:creator>Gary Ansorge</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Jun 2009 20:28:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/06/05/flying-the-meteoric-skies/#comment-189457</guid>
		<description>I have to wonder, Phil, if a plane traveling at 800 km/hr hits a ten 5 kg chunk of rock traveling at, say 350 km/hr, would that not be likely to initiate a crash, as in, &quot;OMG! What was that hitting our fuel tank?&quot;. followed by a big &quot;whoosh&quot; and flames,,,

GAry 7</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have to wonder, Phil, if a plane traveling at 800 km/hr hits a ten 5 kg chunk of rock traveling at, say 350 km/hr, would that not be likely to initiate a crash, as in, &#8220;OMG! What was that hitting our fuel tank?&#8221;. followed by a big &#8220;whoosh&#8221; and flames,,,</p>
<p>GAry 7</p>
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