To add to what Elmar_M said,

Do you really think its likely that Boeing will go bankrupt?

Yes, okay the commercials may be able to take over but I’d like to see NASA having the capability of taking US and Western astronaust into orbit if say, FSM forbid, the commercials go bankrupt and Russia tells us to go jump.

I don’t think that’s a false dichotomy although I guess I could’ve perhaps been clearer in what I meant.

Yup. Good thing the alternative isn’t nothing. Does this count as a factual error? An untrue statement? Technically no. But it is certainly a false dichotomy.

Constellation wasn’t ready to take anybody anywhere. By all accounts the commercials are much closer to manned spaceflight.

Instead of complaining who scored the goal, you should be happy that our team won.

Why should anybody here even bother reading the opinion of somebody who supposedly inadvertantly posts a comment (#1) and ‘retracts’ it (#2) for these, um, ‘reasons’: “What the ..?! This post wasn’t supposed to be made. Accidental duplicate deleted. Sorry folks.”

You could equally ask why would anybody bother reading your opinion either?

What’s wrong with my comment #2 precisely? For some reason instead of posting my first comment once, it posted twice. I didn’t (& don’t) retract my first comment but just I explained that situation for the accidental duplicate of it in what I thought was a humerous, honest, way rather than leave it as a double post. Glad you liked it!

I won’t put an obnoxious face on it, as you are wont to do. (Most of us get by expressing our feelings with WORDS instead of ludicrous pictographs).

They’re called emoticons and, in case you haven’t noticed, I’ve used words to express my views here as well.

My use of emoticons are just an additional extra touch.

Emoticons are handy in conveying emotion, emphasis and meaning – I like them and I’m not alone in using them. If you have a problem with them, well tough. They certainly better than SHOUTING RUDELY IN ALL CAPS like you are wont to do!

What the flaming heck did you expect?

I expected better.

I expected Obama to fund NASA incl. Constellation properly rather than abandoning it. If each US President keeps scrapping his predecessors spacecraft we’ll never get anywhere. Constellation may not have been perfect but it was better than nothing. Don’t forget Apollo had major early troubles and came in for harsh criticism early on too.

People like you are useless:

Well I’m good for telling *you* to go take a long walk off a short jetty wearing lead boots.

That’s at least as useful as your abusive comment, Anchor.

I suppose people like yourself who like to post abusive, childish and insulting ad hominem attacks on other people here – in violation of the Bad Astronomers “Don’t be a jerk – be polite” policy – are so ve-ery useful to the world? [/sarcasm]

Messier wrote : >>Sorry, ATK = ??? >>
ATK Thiokol. [link del.] That is the name of the company that makes the SRBs for the shuttle and the first stage for Ares1.

Thanks for that explaination and the Hobby space link.

No, “like watching sausages being made” doesn’t mean it is boring, it means it is sickening — a distinct difference.

Well, BOO HOO. (Cue uncontrollable sobbing)

Look. Why should anybody here even bother reading the opinion of somebody who supposedly inadvertantly posts a comment (#1) and ‘retracts’ it (#2) for these, um, ‘reasons’: “What the ..?! This post wasn’t supposed to be made. Accidental duplicate deleted. Sorry folks.”

Nice apology. Guess maybe you just wanted to be first in the cue and got carried away, huh?

Naturally, you can promote ‘your side’ all you want. You can blubber inconsolably all you want whenever so many others do not agree with your position. Believe it or not, there ARE people who have thought everything out for themselves, and many of them are a good deal more informed and intelligent than you are. They may even form their opinions on a comprehension of the distinction between one’s personal and potentially dubious opinions or fetishes and the harsh actualities of the real world within which events must transpire and dreams may be realized. (Oh dear, here comes another wave…*sob*…*sniff*…).

Tough world, ain’t it? Shucks, no, I won’t put an obnoxious face on it, as you are wont to do. (Most of us get by expressing our feelings with WORDS instead of ludicrous pictographs).

You declare, “I have pretty much lost all respect and idealism for all politicians. I had hoped Obama would be better than the usual ones. I’ve certainly been disillusioned there.”

I have no doubt. What the flaming heck did you expect? President Obama IS a politician. He has to deal with politics and politicians within an intrinsically political system, as well as the changeable sentiments of voters who elect him and them to office. This is an arena that does not suffer fools, nor crybabies. He in fact DID the right thing with the circumstances he inherited. Alas and alack, that might not penetrate the thickness of your particular skull. (uh oh, here it comes…WHAAAAAAA!!!!)

I’d like to be able to get back to the Moon too. Go to Mars. We ALL would. But if you can’t understand that the (conspicuously UNDERFUNDED) method proposed by the previous administration would NOT have procured those dreams (AND carried the significant risk of killing more astronauts in the bargain, thus setting back manned spaceflight another decade with the first accident) then you live entirely in a fantasy world. Even NASA didn’t like it. Go watch a cheezy sci-fi movie to salve your hurt feelings. The rest of us will continue to do whatever it takes in the screwy real world to reach the stars.

If only Congress would quit acting like they were rocket scientists, telling NASA HOW to do it instead of simply giving them the mission for NASA to figure out, maybe we COULD start to get somewhere. People like you are useless: you might as well bemoan the widespread use of alternating current. (*sniff*)

And Aldrin and many more astronauts supported the administrations plan.
Armstrong is my hero too, but he has been a bit out if touch with space business lately, compared to Buz, who has been very involved with the space industry and even launch vehicle development. Plus the Augustine commission was not just composed of (former) astronauts. I would take their word over Armstrongs any day.

Messier wrote : >>Sorry, ATK = ??? >>
ATK Thiokol.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thiokol
That is the name of the company that makes the SRBs for the shuttle and the first stage for Ares1. They also make ICBMs and pretty much any other solid rocket booster that the US military uses. This makes them a major defense contractor. This also means that they have a very strong lobby on their side. This lobby was doing a really good job at spreading missinformation and lobbying against the Obama admins plan. As one can see in your case, it worked.
Anyway, the Constellation programme which was conceived by former NASA admin Griffin was layed out to get as much contract money to ATK as possible. They would have been the biggest winners of Constellation. ATK is mainly located in Utah and Alabama, which is why the representants of these states were particularily for keeping Constellation.
This is also why they insisted on certain wording to be insterted into the Senate bill at last moment.
To see how the motivation and thinking of these people goes and how why this is a shame, please read here:
http://mainstreetbusinessjournal.com/articleview.php?articlesid=5409&volume=13&issue=29
This is how government led launch vehicles and rocket programmes are “designed” in the US and this is why the US has never produced a launch vehicle that was cost effective.
This is how Constellation was “designed” also and this is why it was bound to fail.
NASA is supposed to be a science and space exploration agency and not an expensive government job creation programme!

Messier wrote: >>The “pork” goes into the economy>>

Uhm and money that goes to the “commercials” does not go “into the economy”?!! The difference is that the commercial launchers give you a better value for the money, because there are no cost plus contracts, but instead fixed cost contracts. You do not have to be an economist to understand the difference (read it up) and why one works and the other does not. With Obama increasing NASAs budget, even more money goes “into the economy”. It is just HOW the money is spent that is different. One is spent in a reasonable fashion, the other is wasteful government spending.

>>I had hoped Obama would be better than the usual ones. I’ve certainly been disillusioned there.>>
IMHO, he did wonderful. I could not have done any better. It was congress and the senate that screwed up. The administration did great! I wished everything in politics was done that way and the world would be a much better place. Obama really tried to bring change to NASA on an unpredecented scale.

Messier wrote:>>Obama’s got his way.>>

Actually, he did not. The senate bill was a compromise and IMHO not a very good one (though still much better than the house bill would have been).

Messier wrote>>I think Obama got it catastrophically wrong. >>
And that opinion is based on what facts? You are being emotional and not scientific! Learn the facts, read up on the facts. Inform yourself, then make an opinion. Dont dream up things that could have been in some fantasy world that is far from any reality and then blame the wrong people when it does not happen. Me and others have tried to point you towards the facts, we have listd websites even. You have demonstrated multiple times in that discussion that you are very uninformed and that you go by your emotions and what you would like to be true instead of the facts. I would love to continue this discussion with you, but only after you have read up on the facts and informed yourself. Read on Hobby space! It is an excellent site, frequented by both enthusiasts and industry veterans. You will find links to articles by well informed people there. Read them and learn!
Here is the link again:
http://www.hobbyspace.com/nucleus/index.php

These things are all well known and they are not “my opinion”, but the conclusions the independent commission of experts, the Augustine commission. You may have heard of it.

Yes, natch. Just as I’m sure you’ve heard of Neil Armstrong and many others who’ve expressed opposing views in total disagreement to the Augustine panel conclusions.

The administration followed their recommendations. IMHO, Obama did an excellent job here. He did exactly what anybody with a decent brain would have done. He did not rely on his own oppinion, he ordered an independent panel of experts to review the situation and then give their recommendations. His decision was clearly based on their recommendations and it was actually, to the point, the same decision that I would have made as well.

Yes, I take your point but there are equally other experts who disagree & make a good opposing case coming to very different conclusions.

…the Constellation architecture would have been soooo expensive to maintain that a permanent presence on the moon would have been impossible given the realities NASAs budgets, which Obama acutally INCREASED, btw. And even with this budget increase NASA would have been unable to complete Constellation.

Well, your side has won – and so we’ll never know now will we?

I wonder what we’ve missed out, what could’ve been.

Guess this all moot now. I hope your happy because I’m feeling mad as hell and very depressed about it all.

Using the “commercials” will be much cheaper, because they will not be paid with expensive cost plus contracts. Instead they will be paid via fixed cost contracts. Cost plus contracts only benefit the porkers like ATK. Of course they would be happy to continue getting government pork instead of proofing their ground in the free market.

Sorry, ATK = ???

The “pork” goes into the economy generally and as the BA has pointed out the money isn’t spent in space but on Earth. I’m no economist and that area, frankly, seems verging on a pseudo-science anyhow but I think NASA spending on programs like Constellation is an investment that actually benefits the economy too.

It is also interesting and noteworthy that the Republicans, who are supposedly sooo much for free markets, quickly forgot about that and rallied against the bill … The same can be said about some idiots on the Democrat side, who even went against their own president and against national interests in order to keep their pork.

Politics = hypocrisy and points scoring at the expense of supposed principles. I’m not surprised, outraged or anything anymore. Sad but, well, politics. I have pretty much lost all respect and idealism for all politicians. I had hoped Obama would be better than the usual ones. I’ve certainly been disillusioned there.

Also thinking “misinformation”~wise : Have I said or suggested otherwise? I asked you to say what in your view I spread that was factually inaccurate. I’m seeing disgreement of opinion, analysis & emphasis but no factual accuracies so far.

Anyway, if everything goes well, then Obamas plan of using the commericals will actually shorten the gap compared to what it would have been under the “old” plan and all that for a lot less money.

I hope you are right, I really genuinely do.
I don’t think so but I hope so.
Anyhow, its over. Obama’s got his way.

Rest In Peace Constellation – The Lunar return program never-to-be that was aborted before it could fly. We”ll never know what it could’ve accomplished had it gone ahead. Whose names could’ve been on the Moon. How it could’ve perhaps unfolded. Not for certain.

All I’ll say is that I wish it had been given more of a chance to work. I think Obama got it catastrophically wrong.

I hope that’s not the case. But ..

And where is the funding for that coming from and the funding for ISS on top of that?
As I said, without AresV and Altair, Ares 1 would have gone nowhere. With the flexible path, there is at least some possible place to go, even without a Altair (one would still need some way to get there though, but there are alternatives suggested by the Augustine commission).
So with the plan by the Obama administration, the US has at least a place to send their astronauts to (ISS) and multiple commercial partners to choose from for launch contracts to get them there. With Ares 1 allone, what exactly is there in regards to human spaceflight?

Let’s provide some data.

The Obama administration didn’t cut the human space flight program, NASA WANTED THE PROGRAM CUT. If the agency doesn’t want the program why force it to. There are better and more efficient ways of getting people in space.

The Obama administration didn’t do anything without consulting the agencies that work on space science. The Augustine Commission concluded that the Constellation program was behind schedule, underfunded, and over budget. Read it:
http://www.nasa.gov/offices/hsf/meetings/10_22_pressconference.html

You can find a really great review at Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Review_of_United_States_Human_Space_Flight_Plans_Committee

Under the plan by the Bush administration deorbit was scheduled for 2017 (for lack of funding, which was needed for Constellation). Part of the plan by the Obama administration was to prolong the station. If the station was deorbited in 2017 (as was planned by the Bush administration), Ares 1, even given optimistic predictions, would have barely been ready by then. Since Ares1 allone is good for nothing in the Constellation – Moon plan, Ares1 would have been a rocket without a mission until AresV and the Altair lander would have come online and that was not planned to happen until the 2020ies.
The assessment that Ares1 would not be ready before 2017 was based on Bush administration funding levels and the progress that far seen by the Augustine commission.
The Obama administration actually INCREASED funding for NASA, but even with this INCREASED funding, it was determined that the funding would not allow for Ares1 to be ready in time to service the station (or be barely ready, I can not quite remember anymore). This is why the administration hit the breaks and decided to bring alternatives on board.

>>Fact is there was a successful launch of an Ares rocket. There was that Oct. 28th test flight of the Ares I-X rocket as I’ve posted on the Youtube video before>>
As I said, Ares1X has NOTHING in common with Ares1. Please read up on it! I will list a few bullet points for you here anyway:
1. The first stage was a 4 segment SRB versus 5 segment SRB in the real Ares 1. A 5 segment SRB stage differs A LOT from the 4 segment SRB. It is NOT just another segment put on top. The core e.g. is set up differently. This has to happen to mitigate vibrations and to control the thrust to avoid having to high max Q, which would break the whole thing apart. In addition to this, the 5 segment SRBs need several other modifications to make them more controlable. In any case, this is not a trivial modification. It is basically a completely new rocket engine.
So nothing was really tested here.
2. As you mentioned yourself. The second stage was just a dummy. It had nothing in common with the real thing. The second stage has not even been ground tested yet, because it does not exist yet.
Nothing of that exists and nothing was tested here.
3. The first stage causes severe vibrations that could damage the vehicle and even kill the crew. For this several mechanisms had to be developed, some on the SRB, some between the upper stage and Orion. None of that was tested with Ares1X.
4. There was no Orion capsule on top of Ares1X either, of course.
So please tell me, what “flight ready” hardware was Ares1X demonstrating?
5. The flight was only suborbital. So no orbital speeds were achieved (by far not). No complex control was needed for orbital flight.
Nothing was tested here either. Or the other way round, I could say that a Trident ICMB has about as much in common with Ares1 as Ares1x has. Both use a solid rocket motor. Heck the Tridents are more of an orbital LV than Ares 1X was.

In fact, I will say that Falcon 1 has more in common with Falcon9 than Ares1X had with Ares1.

Meanwhile Delta and Atlas rockets are flying frequently and have been for many years with a near flawless record. Falcon 9 also completed its maiden flight. This flight was orbital and it was all final hardware except for the capsule which was a qualification test item (so not quite a dummy either).

————————-

SpaceX is not the only commercial company couning as “the commercials”.

I know & I don’t think I’ve ever said otherwise.

..Atlas and Delta are more than good enough to bring a capsule with astronauts to the ISS. They have had a near flawless record for years. AND THAT HARDWARE ALREADY EXISTS! Boeing has already begun development of their own capsule and ..

Yes,okay, ok. I do support the private space industry and hope they succeed. I just think it should be them as well as NASA and other national space agencies – but esp. NASA – too. There is a place for both and each covers different things and areas. It isn’t zero-sum & we aren’t better of ffor having only the private companies flying -or only NASA for that matter. Many eggs in many baskets y’know.

… Orion was never cancelled, not even according to the administrations plans. Just downscaled. But that would have happened anyway, even with Constellation not being cancelled, because Ares1 could not provide enough power to lift the heavy capsule into orbit.

Well good. Be a shame to think so much work and money went totally to waste wouldn’t it?

This is a detail compared to the general cancellation of the rest of the Ares-Constellation plan. You will permit me some generalisation won’t you? I find my posts have enough parenthetical caveats and footnotes as it is!

Regarding the moon plans and the administration cancelling those. Well delayed is not cancelled ..

Isn’t it? Delayed indefinitely with no plan to go back? You could call it “postponed” I guess but saying “cancelled” seems more honest and accurate a summation to me. If a NASA Lunar return is merely being “postponed” then where’s the firm “postponed but now set for” date, the firm methodology to go & new timeline schedule of how & when its happening? Vague hot air talk doesn’t qualify here.

If there is a specific detailed plan & schedule for NASA going back to the Moon or Mars under Obama I certainly haven’t seen it – have you?

End part II. // Part III to follow.

(I know but Elmar_M’s # 64 was a long post that needs a bit of replying too.)

@ Messier Tidy Upper, who said “What facts do you claim I’ve got wrong & where is your evidence showing this?”
1. Obama did not kill human spaceflight as you are claiming. This is total missinformation.

As I ‘spose you’d expect, I’d dispute that. I guess that statement is a subjective assessment of the situation not a factual matter but it is certainly how I see it.

First of all, the cancellation of the shuttle programme was already instigated under the previous administration.

Okay I’ll grant you that. I don’t think I’ve ever stated that Obama is personally to blame for the Shuttle’s retiring. They were clearly getting long in the tooth and running out of time anyhow although I do wish he could’ve stretched them out longer. Fact is though that the Shuttle program is ending on Obama’s watch and he hasn’t got a replacement launch vehicle for them ready to take over. Now that may not be entirely Obama’s fault but that much is undeniable.

The Constellation programme also was instigated then and then underfunded.

Yes & I’ve already stated that Constellation was underfunded by Bush too – the answer being, I think, to fund it properly. You disagree natch preferring to discard it altogether instead but this is a matter of opinion & NOT “misinformation” as you’ve accused me of spreading.

2. The constellation programme was not in any way far enough progressed to provide the US with any human transport capability before the ISS was meant to be destroyed. This was all under the plan of the previous administration.

Well, no, because Obama isn’t giving it the chance.
(&, yes, ok G.W. Bush’es gross underfunding hasn’t helped either.)

I’m not sure if and when the International Space Station is going to be destroyed. I do vaguely recall a suggestion that it would be de-orbited at some future stage but didn’t think this was scheduled or agreed to by the international partners.

Further (in another thread) you were basically blaming Obama for having to buy seats on Soyus from Russia. This also had already been instigated by the previous administration.

Okay, firstly, show me the quote please. It may not be exactly as you suggest I said. I would probably have been talking about the lack of any replacement launch vehicle capacity – NASA without Shuttles or Constellation or “Plan B” left relying upon the Russians and the Private Companies. Begging for a ride and lacking the capacity to do it themselves.

Blame the previous administration? That tired old political strategem for failure? Maybe so but Obama is president now & has been for about two years – he has the option of changing things and doing them differently. Or at least trying to do that.

Then you were claiming that Constellation was already far along. I explained to you there already that it was not and so did others on this board. Constellation until this point is still only a paper rocket, with no, NO flight ready hardware even in sight (earliest estimate was 2017!!!!). Again, I explained this to you over in the other thread. I can do this again, if you want me to, but I would really prefer you just went there and read it again.

Went where?
Again, you see things one way and I another.

Fact is there was a successful launch of an Ares rocket. There was that Oct. 28th test flight of the Ares I-X rocket as I’ve posted on the Youtube video before. So it was starting to take flight. You say it wasn’t legitimate and sufficient for your satisfaction. It was for mine. Okay, there may have been a dummy upper stage & you may think that makes it invalid or suchlike but I don’t. Besides it was a start. To me this is NOT the stage at which you cancel something, it just isn’t.

For more information, I would recommend you go and visit Clark Lindsays excellent Hobby Space site. There you will find not only his opinion, but also links to many other, excellent websites by people that KNOW their stuff and they will tell you the same thing.

I’ll check that out.

End Part I – Part II to follow.

Breaking into segments for ease of readability, not being too excessively long etc ..

A couple of really really good wars in Iran and Afghanistan??

#61 George asked about “watching sausages beeing made”..

There is an old aphorism, often attributed to Bismark, which says: “If you like laws and sausages, you should never watch either one being made.” Both processes are very messy even though the end result might be wonderfull

I can’t add anything else to this discussion though except for what I’d like to see. I’ve been out of the loop with all of this. It gets all bound up in partisan BS anyway, no matter what position one takes. Mildly opposing the new plan makes one a right-wing hack. Mildly agreeing with it makes you a left-wing kool-aid drinker. Neither of which I am. Every single time I take one of those darn ‘political affiliation’ tests I’m dead center. I digress.

I’d like to see private companies step up – and they have and will continue to do so.

I’d like to see a mission to the Moon in my lifetime. Asteroid would be cool. Mars would be an extra-large bonus.

I really do look forward to more robotics missions. I think that can help pave the way for humans. I just hope that we don’t end up pushing human space exploration back over and over again.

Propose a system.
Agree on the system.
Design it.
Build it.
Test it.
Fly it.

Dr. Bussard estimated that his Polywell reactor could provide an ISP of between 10,000 and 100,000(as compared to that of L2/LOX at 450). Unfortunately, THAT tech is decades away from implementation. The nuc lightbulb could potentially be up and running in as little as five years.(faster, if we really wanted to spend the money, as we did in the 1940s)

Gary 7