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	<title>Comments on: Are we in danger from a rogue planet?</title>
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	<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/</link>
	<description>I am an astronomer, writer, and skeptic. I likes reality the way it is, and I aims to keep it that way. My real name is Phil Plait, and I run the Bad Astronomy blog.</description>
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		<title>By: &#8216;Melancholia&#8217; &#124; cpb</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-3/#comment-441765</link>
		<dc:creator>&#8216;Melancholia&#8217; &#124; cpb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Nov 2011 07:37:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-441765</guid>
		<description>[...] though, as Phil Plait at Bad Astronomy explains, a Melancholia scenario is highly unlikely. Space is big. Really, really big. And even giant [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] though, as Phil Plait at Bad Astronomy explains, a Melancholia scenario is highly unlikely. Space is big. Really, really big. And even giant [...]</p>
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		<title>By: [Ciencia] La (mala) ciencia detrás de Melancholia &#171; Cuaderno de Ruta V.2</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-437875</link>
		<dc:creator>[Ciencia] La (mala) ciencia detrás de Melancholia &#171; Cuaderno de Ruta V.2</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Nov 2011 18:05:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-437875</guid>
		<description>[...] irrumpiera en nuestro sistema solar con un tino tal como para impactar contra nuestro planeta. Un articulillo bastante riguroso que he encontrado por ahí, nos cuenta que suponiendo que el número de planetas interestelares fuera igual al número de [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] irrumpiera en nuestro sistema solar con un tino tal como para impactar contra nuestro planeta. Un articulillo bastante riguroso que he encontrado por ahí, nos cuenta que suponiendo que el número de planetas interestelares fuera igual al número de [...]</p>
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		<title>By: SoT 10: Bee Sceptical &#8211; Science On Top</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-434196</link>
		<dc:creator>SoT 10: Bee Sceptical &#8211; Science On Top</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Oct 2011 01:41:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-434196</guid>
		<description>[...] Are we in danger from a rogue planet? [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Are we in danger from a rogue planet? [...]</p>
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		<title>By: dave lee</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-427037</link>
		<dc:creator>dave lee</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Oct 2011 18:33:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-427037</guid>
		<description>lovely explanation but thats like saying only one car a year passes through a remote area of Arizona so you will never be in danger of collision with it, statistically this is correct, unless you happen to cross that one cars path at the wrong time.........</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>lovely explanation but thats like saying only one car a year passes through a remote area of Arizona so you will never be in danger of collision with it, statistically this is correct, unless you happen to cross that one cars path at the wrong time&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Ben</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-425728</link>
		<dc:creator>Ben</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Oct 2011 04:19:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-425728</guid>
		<description>Given your assumptions, it should not be surprising that you have calculated that a rogue planet could be found closer than the nearest star.  First, you assumed a similar number of planets to stars; second, you assumed they were equally distributed in the volume. If these were true then you would expect the nearest rogue planet to be the same distance as the nearest star. However, that is not the case. The galaxy is more dense toward the middle and less dense (fewer stars/volume) out where where we are. So if you calculated equal distribution for planets and compared it with the actual distances where we were, it would be almost a certainty that the calculated nearest planet would be closer than the real nearest star. In reality, you would expect fewer rogue planets per volume the further out you would go in the galaxy, just like stars.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Given your assumptions, it should not be surprising that you have calculated that a rogue planet could be found closer than the nearest star.  First, you assumed a similar number of planets to stars; second, you assumed they were equally distributed in the volume. If these were true then you would expect the nearest rogue planet to be the same distance as the nearest star. However, that is not the case. The galaxy is more dense toward the middle and less dense (fewer stars/volume) out where where we are. So if you calculated equal distribution for planets and compared it with the actual distances where we were, it would be almost a certainty that the calculated nearest planet would be closer than the real nearest star. In reality, you would expect fewer rogue planets per volume the further out you would go in the galaxy, just like stars.</p>
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		<title>By: Ron</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-411459</link>
		<dc:creator>Ron</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Aug 2011 00:18:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-411459</guid>
		<description>Ok. so you are quick to minimize the risk because the mass expanse of space and the mathematical probabilities, huh? Ok. So please explain why we can have near run in&#039;s and even collisions with objects like the one in syberia or the much larger one that killed off the dinosaurs, many instantly? Do not speak in absolutes in science my friend, you will be proved wrong almost every time! ANYTHING, well almost, is possible if not probable over a 13 billion year period.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ok. so you are quick to minimize the risk because the mass expanse of space and the mathematical probabilities, huh? Ok. So please explain why we can have near run in&#8217;s and even collisions with objects like the one in syberia or the much larger one that killed off the dinosaurs, many instantly? Do not speak in absolutes in science my friend, you will be proved wrong almost every time! ANYTHING, well almost, is possible if not probable over a 13 billion year period.</p>
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		<title>By: PLANETA DE FLOTACIÓN LIBRE &#8211; 2 &#171; LA BOLSA DEL MERCADER</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-387395</link>
		<dc:creator>PLANETA DE FLOTACIÓN LIBRE &#8211; 2 &#171; LA BOLSA DEL MERCADER</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jun 2011 20:11:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-387395</guid>
		<description>[...] http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/ [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/" rel="nofollow">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/</a> [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Viel Spass beim Weltuntergang!</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-385518</link>
		<dc:creator>Viel Spass beim Weltuntergang!</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 28 May 2011 10:06:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-385518</guid>
		<description>[...]  [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...]  [...]</p>
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		<title>By: forrest noble</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-384568</link>
		<dc:creator>forrest noble</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 May 2011 02:08:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-384568</guid>
		<description>@michael Simmons,

&quot;  ... is nobody actually reading other peoples posts.
read what “Timothy from Boulder” said.&quot;

I agree that Timothy&#039;s posting is a very informative and that you are correct, I did not read his posting before posting my own. I did discuss both rogue stars and rogue planets up to 75 Jupiter masses (smallest possible stars) in my posting however. My statements did not say how big or how close these object would need to be to raise havoc with our sun. On close approach generally meaning the inner solar system including an impact with the sun,  I think there is no doubt in the case of impact with the sun of a body of 75 times the mass of Jupiter, that serious repercussions would result concerning the Earth.  On closest approach within .1 angstrom units from the sun, the repercussions concerning the Earth would be open for conjecture.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@michael Simmons,</p>
<p>&#8221;  &#8230; is nobody actually reading other peoples posts.<br />
read what “Timothy from Boulder” said.&#8221;</p>
<p>I agree that Timothy&#8217;s posting is a very informative and that you are correct, I did not read his posting before posting my own. I did discuss both rogue stars and rogue planets up to 75 Jupiter masses (smallest possible stars) in my posting however. My statements did not say how big or how close these object would need to be to raise havoc with our sun. On close approach generally meaning the inner solar system including an impact with the sun,  I think there is no doubt in the case of impact with the sun of a body of 75 times the mass of Jupiter, that serious repercussions would result concerning the Earth.  On closest approach within .1 angstrom units from the sun, the repercussions concerning the Earth would be open for conjecture.</p>
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		<title>By: &#191;Son un peligro los planetas errantes? &#124; La mentira está ahí fuera</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-384544</link>
		<dc:creator>&#191;Son un peligro los planetas errantes? &#124; La mentira está ahí fuera</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 May 2011 23:38:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-384544</guid>
		<description>[...] http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/ [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/" rel="nofollow">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/</a> [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Steve</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-384538</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 May 2011 23:19:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-384538</guid>
		<description>I seem to remember that Space:1999 was all about people trapped on the moon when it was hurled out of the Solar System and catapulted to wander through space...
...not so far-fetched after all!!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I seem to remember that Space:1999 was all about people trapped on the moon when it was hurled out of the Solar System and catapulted to wander through space&#8230;<br />
&#8230;not so far-fetched after all!!</p>
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		<title>By: mike burkhart</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-384489</link>
		<dc:creator>mike burkhart</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 May 2011 17:45:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-384489</guid>
		<description>Thanks Phil this takes a lot off of my mind. I&#039;m sorry for bringing it up but when I read the other post, the novels When Worlds Collide and After Worlds Collide (and movie) poped into my head.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks Phil this takes a lot off of my mind. I&#8217;m sorry for bringing it up but when I read the other post, the novels When Worlds Collide and After Worlds Collide (and movie) poped into my head.</p>
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		<title>By: Messier Tidy Upper</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-384434</link>
		<dc:creator>Messier Tidy Upper</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 May 2011 07:15:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-384434</guid>
		<description>@83.   Michael Simmons asked : &lt;i&gt;&quot;sigh is nobody actually reading other peoples posts?&quot;&lt;/i&gt;

Well &lt;b&gt;*I*&lt;/b&gt; am! ;-)

@75.   Ryan : &lt;i&gt;&quot;There is an upcoming big budget movie about this very topic. It’s called “Melancholia” [Snip]  about a rogue planet heading for Earth and ending Earth’s existence. I CAN’T wait to watch it!!!&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;

I can. I&#039;ll wait till its out on DVD or broadcast on the box. ;-) 

@62.   Michael Simmons : Thanks. :-)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@83.   Michael Simmons asked : <i>&#8220;sigh is nobody actually reading other peoples posts?&#8221;</i></p>
<p>Well <b>*I*</b> am! <img src='http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>@75.   Ryan : <i>&#8220;There is an upcoming big budget movie about this very topic. It’s called “Melancholia” [Snip]  about a rogue planet heading for Earth and ending Earth’s existence. I CAN’T wait to watch it!!!</i></p>
<p>I can. I&#8217;ll wait till its out on DVD or broadcast on the box. <img src='http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';-)' class='wp-smiley' />  </p>
<p>@62.   Michael Simmons : Thanks. <img src='http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: Messier Tidy Upper</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-384420</link>
		<dc:creator>Messier Tidy Upper</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 May 2011 05:55:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-384420</guid>
		<description>There&#039;s  a &lt;i&gt;New Scientist&lt;/i&gt; issue  of relevant interest here  - this is the 24th November 2001 issue   if folks can find a copy somewhere - that has &lt;i&gt;&quot;Dark Worlds : The strange Planets that Roam Deep Space&quot;&lt;/i&gt; as its cover story complete with a good piece of space art depicting such a world.  This is also titled (inside the mag.) &lt;i&gt;&quot;Lost Worlds&lt;/i&gt; and was written by Marcus Chown featuring these free-floating planets.  

Also in the   &lt;i&gt;NewScientist&lt;/i&gt; issue 23rd July 2005 and again a cover story no less was an article titled &lt;i&gt;&quot;How many Planets in the solar System?&quot; &lt;/i&gt; with the artwork having crossed out &#039;9&#039; and written &#039;23&#039; in red over it. This article dealt with the &quot;oligarchic theory&quot; of the formation of our solar system and suggested - based on claims by Eugene Chiang of the University of California and on  Scott Kenyon&#039;s computer models and theorising - that there may have been about 60 Mars sized bodies formed early in our solar system&#039;s history and many of them were ejected out to now orbit around 1,000 to 10,000 AU with others being  entirely ejected from our solar system.  :-)

What a co-incidence it might be if we could find one of those lost &quot;sibling&quot; worlds some day! ;-) 

@84.   Geo : I think the &lt;i&gt;Enterprise&lt;/i&gt;comes complete with astronomical charts and information provided already by the previous reserach of Humans and  Vulcans and other Federation groups. I also do recall the ship(s) spending time on charting and  stellar and planetary surveying missions,FWIW. ;-)  </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There&#8217;s  a <i>New Scientist</i> issue  of relevant interest here  &#8211; this is the 24th November 2001 issue   if folks can find a copy somewhere &#8211; that has <i>&#8220;Dark Worlds : The strange Planets that Roam Deep Space&#8221;</i> as its cover story complete with a good piece of space art depicting such a world.  This is also titled (inside the mag.) <i>&#8220;Lost Worlds</i> and was written by Marcus Chown featuring these free-floating planets.  </p>
<p>Also in the   <i>NewScientist</i> issue 23rd July 2005 and again a cover story no less was an article titled <i>&#8220;How many Planets in the solar System?&#8221; </i> with the artwork having crossed out &#8217;9&#8242; and written &#8217;23&#8242; in red over it. This article dealt with the &#8220;oligarchic theory&#8221; of the formation of our solar system and suggested &#8211; based on claims by Eugene Chiang of the University of California and on  Scott Kenyon&#8217;s computer models and theorising &#8211; that there may have been about 60 Mars sized bodies formed early in our solar system&#8217;s history and many of them were ejected out to now orbit around 1,000 to 10,000 AU with others being  entirely ejected from our solar system.  <img src='http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>What a co-incidence it might be if we could find one of those lost &#8220;sibling&#8221; worlds some day! <img src='http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';-)' class='wp-smiley' />  </p>
<p>@84.   Geo : I think the <i>Enterprise</i>comes complete with astronomical charts and information provided already by the previous reserach of Humans and  Vulcans and other Federation groups. I also do recall the ship(s) spending time on charting and  stellar and planetary surveying missions,FWIW. <img src='http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: Michael Simmons</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-384405</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Simmons</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 May 2011 04:00:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-384405</guid>
		<description>@Timothy from Boulder
It would be great if you had your analytical study published.
I&#039;d be interested in the number of scenarios you  tried.
I&#039;d imaging a super computer would be needed to run a large number of scenarios for extended times.

For those that might not have access to a super computer to study this , there are two GPU base n body simulators.
http://astro.pas.rochester.edu/~aquillen/qymsym/
&quot;QYMSYM: GPU accelerated 2nd order hybrid symplectic integrator that permits close encounters. This is a parallel code running with CUDA on a video card that puts the many processors on board to work while taking advantage of fast shared memory. It is meant to do the same thing as John Chambers&#039; code mercury6 but in parallel on the GPU. &quot;
paper http://arxiv.org/abs/1007.3458

The second is Swarm-NG
http://www.astro.ufl.edu/~eford/code/swarm/docs/README.html
&quot;Swarm-NG will focus on the integration of an ensemble of N-body systems evolving under Newtonian gravity. Swarm-NG does not replicate existing libraries that calculate forces for large-N systems on GPUs, but rather focuses on integrating an ensemble of many systems where N is small. This is of particular interest for astronomers who study the chaotic evolution of planetary systems. In the long term, we hope Swarm-NG will allow for the efficient parallel integration of user-defined systems of ordinary differential equations.&quot;

Given the result that gas giant size planets and larger can fly though with little effect on the planets, the first thing that I think of is how common could this be occurring and what is the effect on the huge number of small objects in the solar system.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Timothy from Boulder<br />
It would be great if you had your analytical study published.<br />
I&#8217;d be interested in the number of scenarios you  tried.<br />
I&#8217;d imaging a super computer would be needed to run a large number of scenarios for extended times.</p>
<p>For those that might not have access to a super computer to study this , there are two GPU base n body simulators.<br />
<a href="http://astro.pas.rochester.edu/~aquillen/qymsym/" rel="nofollow">http://astro.pas.rochester.edu/~aquillen/qymsym/</a><br />
&#8220;QYMSYM: GPU accelerated 2nd order hybrid symplectic integrator that permits close encounters. This is a parallel code running with CUDA on a video card that puts the many processors on board to work while taking advantage of fast shared memory. It is meant to do the same thing as John Chambers&#8217; code mercury6 but in parallel on the GPU. &#8221;<br />
paper <a href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1007.3458" rel="nofollow">http://arxiv.org/abs/1007.3458</a></p>
<p>The second is Swarm-NG<br />
<a href="http://www.astro.ufl.edu/~eford/code/swarm/docs/README.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.astro.ufl.edu/~eford/code/swarm/docs/README.html</a><br />
&#8220;Swarm-NG will focus on the integration of an ensemble of N-body systems evolving under Newtonian gravity. Swarm-NG does not replicate existing libraries that calculate forces for large-N systems on GPUs, but rather focuses on integrating an ensemble of many systems where N is small. This is of particular interest for astronomers who study the chaotic evolution of planetary systems. In the long term, we hope Swarm-NG will allow for the efficient parallel integration of user-defined systems of ordinary differential equations.&#8221;</p>
<p>Given the result that gas giant size planets and larger can fly though with little effect on the planets, the first thing that I think of is how common could this be occurring and what is the effect on the huge number of small objects in the solar system.</p>
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		<title>By: Timothy from Boulder</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-384381</link>
		<dc:creator>Timothy from Boulder</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 May 2011 20:42:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-384381</guid>
		<description>@ Michael Simmons

Chambers&#039; MERCURY symplectic integrator was used for my analysis, which ran the model for 500,000 years.

Another point people are missing is the time involved. Even in the one extraordinary case in the model where a 10-Jupiter mass passes closely by Saturn and sets up a catastrophic orbital instability (Jupiter and Saturn trade places 5 times; Saturn and Uranus are eventually ejected from the Solar System) the process takes over 100,000 years to occur.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ Michael Simmons</p>
<p>Chambers&#8217; MERCURY symplectic integrator was used for my analysis, which ran the model for 500,000 years.</p>
<p>Another point people are missing is the time involved. Even in the one extraordinary case in the model where a 10-Jupiter mass passes closely by Saturn and sets up a catastrophic orbital instability (Jupiter and Saturn trade places 5 times; Saturn and Uranus are eventually ejected from the Solar System) the process takes over 100,000 years to occur.</p>
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		<title>By: jess tauber</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-384374</link>
		<dc:creator>jess tauber</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 May 2011 19:33:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-384374</guid>
		<description>The Queen&#039;s visit to Ireland this past week proves that there is at least one BROGUE planet in the Milky Way, and it is ours....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Queen&#8217;s visit to Ireland this past week proves that there is at least one BROGUE planet in the Milky Way, and it is ours&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>By: Geo</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-384303</link>
		<dc:creator>Geo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 May 2011 04:09:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-384303</guid>
		<description>Someone already pointed out the potential for cool sci-fi stories around rogue planets, but your math also points out a flaw in science fiction that I&#039;ve always found rather annoying.

In sci-fi, it is always ridiculously easy to FIND THINGS.  In Star Trek, the Enterprise can scan planets and isolate the life signs of individual people.  They can also detect space ships from light years away.  In Star Wars, the Empire can find a rebel base with relative ease, just by sending out a few probe droids to random planets.

And the list goes on and on.  I realize that this is in part a plot-moving device.  Just as in crime stories, the pursuing killer and the fleeing victim always manage to bump into each other at a random gas station (even though the odds of that are astronomical), it&#039;s necessary for protagonists and antagonists to find each other if they story is going to move forward at all.  After all, it would be a pretty boring story if it read like this:  &quot;And so our hero fled the evil Zorgons and they never found him.  The End.&quot;

However, I also think it has something to do with the human mind&#039;s inability to think about large numbers.  If you wanted to get lost in this galaxy, NOBODY is going to find you, EVER.  Period.  I do not care how advanced their technology is, it WILL NOT happen.  Space is just too damn big.  I don&#039;t care how sensitive the sensors are, they are NOT going to find some tiny little spaceship parked on a random ice moon between two stars.  First off, it would take thousands of years to search a volume that large, and that&#039;s only if you consider local space.   If you start talking about the volume of a galaxy (like the Empire&#039;s search for the rebels), you&#039;d need the lifetime of the universe (and then some) to find something as small as a ship or a base.  And quite frankly, if your stealth technology cannot mask you in a volume that large, then it is seriously CRAP technology.

So that&#039;s something that I wish sci-fi would start addressing in a more &quot;realistic&quot; fashion.  I realize that might seem like a silly request of a genre that regularly defeats Einstein by merely flicking the &quot;hyperdrive&quot; switch, but this is different.  This isn&#039;t a simple matter of finding a fictional shortcut around the universe&#039;s speed limit.  Doing a &quot;sensor sweep&quot; of a SECTOR of the galaxy and finding the ship you&#039;re looking for borders on &quot;magical&quot;.  It would be the difference between asking us to buy into Harry Potter having a magic wand that helps him cast spells or asking us to buy into Harry Potter putting on a magic ring and saying, &quot;I wish Voldemort was dead, and that everyone he ever killed was alive again.  Ta Da!&quot;

The former is &quot;believable&quot; bit of fiction, but the latter is just a God-like deus ex machina.  A ship drive that can generate a wormhole or drop the ship into a &quot;hyper dimension&quot; that speeds travel between two points?  OK, sure, I&#039;ll buy that &quot;impossibility&quot; for the sake of the story.  But a magical, God-like &quot;sensor array&quot; that can find anyone, anywhere IN SPACE?  Come on!!  If the Romulans wanted to park an armada within 100 AU of Earth, NOBODY would ever find it, even without cloaking technology.  It&#039;s not like seaching for a needle in a haystack.  It&#039;s like searching for a needle in ALL the wheat fields on the planet!!

Rant over :-)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Someone already pointed out the potential for cool sci-fi stories around rogue planets, but your math also points out a flaw in science fiction that I&#8217;ve always found rather annoying.</p>
<p>In sci-fi, it is always ridiculously easy to FIND THINGS.  In Star Trek, the Enterprise can scan planets and isolate the life signs of individual people.  They can also detect space ships from light years away.  In Star Wars, the Empire can find a rebel base with relative ease, just by sending out a few probe droids to random planets.</p>
<p>And the list goes on and on.  I realize that this is in part a plot-moving device.  Just as in crime stories, the pursuing killer and the fleeing victim always manage to bump into each other at a random gas station (even though the odds of that are astronomical), it&#8217;s necessary for protagonists and antagonists to find each other if they story is going to move forward at all.  After all, it would be a pretty boring story if it read like this:  &#8220;And so our hero fled the evil Zorgons and they never found him.  The End.&#8221;</p>
<p>However, I also think it has something to do with the human mind&#8217;s inability to think about large numbers.  If you wanted to get lost in this galaxy, NOBODY is going to find you, EVER.  Period.  I do not care how advanced their technology is, it WILL NOT happen.  Space is just too damn big.  I don&#8217;t care how sensitive the sensors are, they are NOT going to find some tiny little spaceship parked on a random ice moon between two stars.  First off, it would take thousands of years to search a volume that large, and that&#8217;s only if you consider local space.   If you start talking about the volume of a galaxy (like the Empire&#8217;s search for the rebels), you&#8217;d need the lifetime of the universe (and then some) to find something as small as a ship or a base.  And quite frankly, if your stealth technology cannot mask you in a volume that large, then it is seriously CRAP technology.</p>
<p>So that&#8217;s something that I wish sci-fi would start addressing in a more &#8220;realistic&#8221; fashion.  I realize that might seem like a silly request of a genre that regularly defeats Einstein by merely flicking the &#8220;hyperdrive&#8221; switch, but this is different.  This isn&#8217;t a simple matter of finding a fictional shortcut around the universe&#8217;s speed limit.  Doing a &#8220;sensor sweep&#8221; of a SECTOR of the galaxy and finding the ship you&#8217;re looking for borders on &#8220;magical&#8221;.  It would be the difference between asking us to buy into Harry Potter having a magic wand that helps him cast spells or asking us to buy into Harry Potter putting on a magic ring and saying, &#8220;I wish Voldemort was dead, and that everyone he ever killed was alive again.  Ta Da!&#8221;</p>
<p>The former is &#8220;believable&#8221; bit of fiction, but the latter is just a God-like deus ex machina.  A ship drive that can generate a wormhole or drop the ship into a &#8220;hyper dimension&#8221; that speeds travel between two points?  OK, sure, I&#8217;ll buy that &#8220;impossibility&#8221; for the sake of the story.  But a magical, God-like &#8220;sensor array&#8221; that can find anyone, anywhere IN SPACE?  Come on!!  If the Romulans wanted to park an armada within 100 AU of Earth, NOBODY would ever find it, even without cloaking technology.  It&#8217;s not like seaching for a needle in a haystack.  It&#8217;s like searching for a needle in ALL the wheat fields on the planet!!</p>
<p>Rant over <img src='http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: Michael Simmons</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-384286</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Simmons</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 May 2011 00:19:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-384286</guid>
		<description>@ forrest noble 

sigh is nobody actually reading other peoples posts.
read what &quot;Timothy from Boulder&quot; said

Download something like Universe Sandbox and try if for yourself.
If you want the software used in a a lot of scientic papers for nbody simulations get
John Chambers Mercury program from here http://www.arm.ac.uk/~jec/
It is text based and in fortran.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ forrest noble </p>
<p>sigh is nobody actually reading other peoples posts.<br />
read what &#8220;Timothy from Boulder&#8221; said</p>
<p>Download something like Universe Sandbox and try if for yourself.<br />
If you want the software used in a a lot of scientic papers for nbody simulations get<br />
John Chambers Mercury program from here <a href="http://www.arm.ac.uk/~jec/" rel="nofollow">http://www.arm.ac.uk/~jec/</a><br />
It is text based and in fortran.</p>
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		<title>By: forrest noble</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-384226</link>
		<dc:creator>forrest noble</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 May 2011 21:00:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-384226</guid>
		<description>Although it seems there is much speculation concerning &quot;seven confirmed sitings&quot; and a conclusion  that there may be 100&#039;s of billions of rogue planets in the galaxy,  if such a conclusion is valid then I think there would be a greater worry concerning the interaction of such planets with the sun and other planets than with our planet. 

The idea is that the sun would gravitationally attract such planets passing through our solar system and some could collide or raise havoc with the sun on close approach, or be captured by the sun, any of which could cause great disturbances to the Earth and solar system.  

Also I&#039;m thinking there probably are many rogue stars out there that move counter to the normal motions of the Milky Way that also could cause similar problems. Additionally the Nemesis hypothesis that could be a very small distant companion star to our sun (a red dwarf), a brown dwarf, a very large planet of some kind, all of the above being food for though for some final edition of  Phil&#039;s book, &quot;Death from the Skys,  part 86.&quot;  :)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Although it seems there is much speculation concerning &#8220;seven confirmed sitings&#8221; and a conclusion  that there may be 100&#8242;s of billions of rogue planets in the galaxy,  if such a conclusion is valid then I think there would be a greater worry concerning the interaction of such planets with the sun and other planets than with our planet. </p>
<p>The idea is that the sun would gravitationally attract such planets passing through our solar system and some could collide or raise havoc with the sun on close approach, or be captured by the sun, any of which could cause great disturbances to the Earth and solar system.  </p>
<p>Also I&#8217;m thinking there probably are many rogue stars out there that move counter to the normal motions of the Milky Way that also could cause similar problems. Additionally the Nemesis hypothesis that could be a very small distant companion star to our sun (a red dwarf), a brown dwarf, a very large planet of some kind, all of the above being food for though for some final edition of  Phil&#8217;s book, &#8220;Death from the Skys,  part 86.&#8221;  <img src='http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: Peter Ravn Rasmussen</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-384213</link>
		<dc:creator>Peter Ravn Rasmussen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 May 2011 18:55:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-384213</guid>
		<description>&quot;1041 cubic kilometers&quot;? Really?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;1041 cubic kilometers&#8221;? Really?</p>
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		<title>By: Michael Simmons</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-384182</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Simmons</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 May 2011 13:01:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-384182</guid>
		<description>@Wzrd1
This page sums it up
http://www.phrenopolis.com/perspective/solarsystem/
as far as hitting or coming close to a planet.

Gravitationally to have any effect the object as to be around for a long time.
Any coming though is going to fly in and out before it affects any of the planets.

However....  anything  flying though this
http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/Animations/Outer_2011.gif

or worst this
http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/Animations/Middle_2011.gif
is probably going to throw something out of wack.

(gif animations are from http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/Animations/Animations.html)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Wzrd1<br />
This page sums it up<br />
<a href="http://www.phrenopolis.com/perspective/solarsystem/" rel="nofollow">http://www.phrenopolis.com/perspective/solarsystem/</a><br />
as far as hitting or coming close to a planet.</p>
<p>Gravitationally to have any effect the object as to be around for a long time.<br />
Any coming though is going to fly in and out before it affects any of the planets.</p>
<p>However&#8230;.  anything  flying though this<br />
<a href="http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/Animations/Outer_2011.gif" rel="nofollow">http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/Animations/Outer_2011.gif</a></p>
<p>or worst this<br />
<a href="http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/Animations/Middle_2011.gif" rel="nofollow">http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/Animations/Middle_2011.gif</a><br />
is probably going to throw something out of wack.</p>
<p>(gif animations are from <a href="http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/Animations/Animations.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/Animations/Animations.html</a>)</p>
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		<title>By: The rapture tomorrow! - Page 5 - Aussie Pythons &#38; Snakes</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-384177</link>
		<dc:creator>The rapture tomorrow! - Page 5 - Aussie Pythons &#38; Snakes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 May 2011 11:03:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-384177</guid>
		<description>[...]          I find it hard to keep up with doomsday theories   Are we in danger from a rogue planet? &#124; Bad Astronomy &#124; Discover Magazine              Reply With Quote              + Reply to [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...]          I find it hard to keep up with doomsday theories   Are we in danger from a rogue planet? | Bad Astronomy | Discover Magazine              Reply With Quote              + Reply to [...]</p>
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		<title>By: What If They Held an Apocalypse But Nobody Came? &#171; Galileo&#039;s Pendulum</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-384174</link>
		<dc:creator>What If They Held an Apocalypse But Nobody Came? &#171; Galileo&#039;s Pendulum</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 May 2011 10:42:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-384174</guid>
		<description>[...] When Worlds Collide: Phil Plait estimates the likelihood that Earth will encounter one of the free-agent planets populating our galaxy. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] When Worlds Collide: Phil Plait estimates the likelihood that Earth will encounter one of the free-agent planets populating our galaxy. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Wzrd1</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/05/19/are-we-in-danger-from-a-rogue-planet/comment-page-2/#comment-384121</link>
		<dc:creator>Wzrd1</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 May 2011 04:12:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=32128#comment-384121</guid>
		<description>Phil, Phil, Phil. How many times must you be reminded that there is NO such thing as NO in probability equations?
The probability spread for an Earth effecting rogue planet is 3. Slim, fat and none.
As none is NOT valid in statistics, the chances of effect are slim and fat.
As in a slim chance of even NOTICING the thing.
As in a FAT chance of even directly observing the thing.
Because, as you&#039;ve said, space is really, really, really, really, REALLY big and we&#039;re miniscule. 
Still, it&#039;d be uber cool if we DID bump into one passing by within a few lightyears, it might JUST be able to be observed in the next few generations of space telescopes.
Assuming the tea party LETS us &quot;waste&quot; money on REAL science...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Phil, Phil, Phil. How many times must you be reminded that there is NO such thing as NO in probability equations?<br />
The probability spread for an Earth effecting rogue planet is 3. Slim, fat and none.<br />
As none is NOT valid in statistics, the chances of effect are slim and fat.<br />
As in a slim chance of even NOTICING the thing.<br />
As in a FAT chance of even directly observing the thing.<br />
Because, as you&#8217;ve said, space is really, really, really, really, REALLY big and we&#8217;re miniscule.<br />
Still, it&#8217;d be uber cool if we DID bump into one passing by within a few lightyears, it might JUST be able to be observed in the next few generations of space telescopes.<br />
Assuming the tea party LETS us &#8220;waste&#8221; money on REAL science&#8230;</p>
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