Comments on: NASA satellite due to burn up some time in the next few days http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/ I am an astronomer, writer, and skeptic. I likes reality the way it is, and I aims to keep it that way. My real name is Phil Plait, and I run the Bad Astronomy blog. Fri, 25 May 2012 04:54:40 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Joseph G http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-2/#comment-421487 Joseph G Fri, 23 Sep 2011 20:04:03 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-421487 @59 Obi-Jon: It's a perfectly cromulent word! /Sorry, someone had to say it. Personally, I love playing word games and making up whimsical new words. It makes me squee when Phil shows the same proclivity. @59 Obi-Jon:
It’s a perfectly cromulent word!

/Sorry, someone had to say it.

Personally, I love playing word games and making up whimsical new words. It makes me squee when Phil shows the same proclivity.

]]> By: Obi-Jon http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-2/#comment-421281 Obi-Jon Fri, 23 Sep 2011 12:39:54 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-421281 Embiggen was also used in The Simpsons if my memory serves me correctly. A noble spirit, embiggens the smallest man.' by Jebediah Springfield. I heard UARS would come down about 1 or 2 am local time somewhere near Ireland. That was on BBC TV in the UK. Embiggen was also used in The Simpsons if my memory serves me correctly. A noble spirit, embiggens the smallest man.’ by Jebediah Springfield. I heard UARS would come down about 1 or 2 am local time somewhere near Ireland. That was on BBC TV in the UK.

]]> By: Wzrd1 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-2/#comment-420642 Wzrd1 Thu, 22 Sep 2011 16:33:35 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420642 @Guy, #52, erm, I rather LIKE enbiggen. It's more gooder. ;) @Guy, #52, erm, I rather LIKE enbiggen. It’s more gooder. ;)

]]> By: Robin http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-2/#comment-420604 Robin Thu, 22 Sep 2011 14:49:45 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420604 "Embiggen" is a synonym for "galactinate" and is derived from "humor". “Embiggen” is a synonym for “galactinate” and is derived from “humor”.

]]> By: tmac57 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-2/#comment-420592 tmac57 Thu, 22 Sep 2011 14:22:04 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420592 Thanks DennyMo. That was enlightiating ;) Thanks DennyMo. That was enlightiating ;)

]]> By: Jon Hanford http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-2/#comment-420580 Jon Hanford Thu, 22 Sep 2011 13:53:03 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420580 @#43 Das Boese "Hm, isn’t it possible that the “tumble” is intentional?" In November of 2007, the UARS satellite was struck by an unknown object (space junk or a meteoroid) that probably sent it tumbling. It also broke 4 small pieces off UARS which eventually reentered on their own: http://ourstrangeplanet.com/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=149 Of course, interactions with the upper atmosphere since then have probable contributed to the satellites' gyrations as well. @#43 Das Boese

“Hm, isn’t it possible that the “tumble” is intentional?”

In November of 2007, the UARS satellite was struck by an unknown object (space junk or a meteoroid) that probably sent it tumbling. It also broke 4 small pieces off UARS which eventually reentered on their own: http://ourstrangeplanet.com/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=149

Of course, interactions with the upper atmosphere since then have probable contributed to the satellites’ gyrations as well.

]]> By: DennyMo http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-2/#comment-420576 DennyMo Thu, 22 Sep 2011 13:40:09 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420576 Guy, I hope you're kidding. Either that, or you haven't hung around here long enough to get the joke. BA frequently (i.e "nearly always") makes up new words as replacements for <i>enlarge</i>. Usually the new word is related to the topic. "Embiggen" is actually a retread: he's used it several times before. Guy, I hope you’re kidding. Either that, or you haven’t hung around here long enough to get the joke. BA frequently (i.e “nearly always”) makes up new words as replacements for enlarge. Usually the new word is related to the topic. “Embiggen” is actually a retread: he’s used it several times before.

]]> By: Why Garbage Falling From Space Is A Good Thing. : ATMACK Call Us Toll Free: 855-286-2251 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-2/#comment-420500 Why Garbage Falling From Space Is A Good Thing. : ATMACK Call Us Toll Free: 855-286-2251 Thu, 22 Sep 2011 09:17:47 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420500 [...] physics of the problem is simple. As Phil Plait puts it over at Bad Astronomy (with a nice figure to [...] [...] physics of the problem is simple. As Phil Plait puts it over at Bad Astronomy (with a nice figure to [...]

]]> By: Guy Ferguson http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-2/#comment-420428 Guy Ferguson Thu, 22 Sep 2011 06:21:58 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420428 How does anyone so obviously intelligent manage to use a ridiculous word , (click to embiggen)! Could he possibly mean ENLARGE? How does anyone so obviously intelligent manage to use a ridiculous word , (click to embiggen)!
Could he possibly mean ENLARGE?

]]> By: Wzrd1 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-2/#comment-420332 Wzrd1 Thu, 22 Sep 2011 03:58:33 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420332 My apologies, Phil. Bad day here, so my a and b filters failed. Our inclement weather has my back and knees beyond enraged. It's what I get for violating my warranty and putting too many miles and interesting years of life on... :/ Oh, thanks for moderating in the risk assessment. I know that quite a few folks out there would be put off by ballistics information, but it's the closest real world energy exchange information I could think of. I don't have energy exchange data for a 2 year old running into you vs a Buick or high speed train and I'm too lazy to do that simple calculation for each. ;) But, for those with more time and energy to pursue it, it's E=1/2mv^2. :D My apologies, Phil. Bad day here, so my a and b filters failed.
Our inclement weather has my back and knees beyond enraged. It’s what I get for violating my warranty and putting too many miles and interesting years of life on… :/
Oh, thanks for moderating in the risk assessment. I know that quite a few folks out there would be put off by ballistics information, but it’s the closest real world energy exchange information I could think of. I don’t have energy exchange data for a 2 year old running into you vs a Buick or high speed train and I’m too lazy to do that simple calculation for each. ;)
But, for those with more time and energy to pursue it, it’s E=1/2mv^2. :D

]]> By: Phil Plait http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-1/#comment-420327 Phil Plait Thu, 22 Sep 2011 03:46:30 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420327 Folks, don't bother replying to people who are obviously either a) trolls, or b) breaking my "Don't be a jerk" rule. If you see something like that, please drop me an email and I'll take care of it. I deleted Procyan's comment. Folks, don’t bother replying to people who are obviously either a) trolls, or b) breaking my “Don’t be a jerk” rule. If you see something like that, please drop me an email and I’ll take care of it.

I deleted Procyan’s comment.

]]> By: Wzrd1 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-1/#comment-420303 Wzrd1 Thu, 22 Sep 2011 01:30:57 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420303 The NASA risk assessment is at: http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/585584main_UARS_Status.pdf For comparison to the kinetic energy of impactors, a 9mm pistol has a muzzle energy of 470-500 joules. An M-16 has around 1600-1700 joules muzzle energy. A .308 caliber rifle has about 3800 joules of muzzle energy. A .50 caliber Browning machine gun has about 15 kilojoules muzzle energy. The NASA risk assessment is at:
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/585584main_UARS_Status.pdf
For comparison to the kinetic energy of impactors, a 9mm pistol has a muzzle energy of 470-500 joules. An M-16 has around 1600-1700 joules muzzle energy. A .308 caliber rifle has about 3800 joules of muzzle energy. A .50 caliber Browning machine gun has about 15 kilojoules muzzle energy.

]]> By: Wzrd1 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-1/#comment-420294 Wzrd1 Thu, 22 Sep 2011 01:06:54 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420294 @Procyan #48, interesting that you are angry over a satellite coming in, yet you are happily complacent over meteors smacking into you. You're gleefully tolerant over the HIGH risk of being killed or injured in a traffic accident, with orders of magnitude probability higher chance of occurring. You're smugly satisfied with the higher probability that an aircraft part or even a chunk of "blue ice" hitting you. And that you would wish harm upon a blogger's family is shocking and tells much about you, your upbringing and culture. "Smug USA attitude" indeed! @Procyan #48, interesting that you are angry over a satellite coming in, yet you are happily complacent over meteors smacking into you. You’re gleefully tolerant over the HIGH risk of being killed or injured in a traffic accident, with orders of magnitude probability higher chance of occurring. You’re smugly satisfied with the higher probability that an aircraft part or even a chunk of “blue ice” hitting you.
And that you would wish harm upon a blogger’s family is shocking and tells much about you, your upbringing and culture.
“Smug USA attitude” indeed!

]]> By: Wzrd1 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-1/#comment-420286 Wzrd1 Thu, 22 Sep 2011 00:37:04 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420286 @Jorge, probably. The latest projections put it coming down over French Guiana and Brazil, so you might get to see its track in the distance. Current risk assessments (I have the .pdf file from NASA) shows 26 components arriving at the surface, out of those, a dozen could strike you and not leave a bruise. Of the rest, three components would impact with 95, 102 and 153 kJ kinetic energy. Of course, if the sun excites our atmosphere by any significant amount, Space-Track predictions will be in the toilet. @Jorge, probably. The latest projections put it coming down over French Guiana and Brazil, so you might get to see its track in the distance.
Current risk assessments (I have the .pdf file from NASA) shows 26 components arriving at the surface, out of those, a dozen could strike you and not leave a bruise. Of the rest, three components would impact with 95, 102 and 153 kJ kinetic energy.
Of course, if the sun excites our atmosphere by any significant amount, Space-Track predictions will be in the toilet.

]]> By: Robin http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-1/#comment-420259 Robin Wed, 21 Sep 2011 23:10:38 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420259 @Das Boese (#43): Not really. This thing ran out of fuel a while ago, so there's been no fuel for a while for orbit adjust maneuvers. @Das Boese (#43): Not really. This thing ran out of fuel a while ago, so there’s been no fuel for a while for orbit adjust maneuvers.

]]> By: Jorge Laris http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-1/#comment-420245 Jorge Laris Wed, 21 Sep 2011 22:22:42 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420245 I hope i can watch it at Yucatan I hope i can watch it at Yucatan

]]> By: Jay Fox http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-1/#comment-420222 Jay Fox Wed, 21 Sep 2011 20:32:23 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420222 My wife and I saw that thing go by in daylight, about two hours before sunset, a couple weeks ago. The sunlight reflected off it right at us, and it was SOOOO bright. We could easily make out the shape and the fact that it was tumbling. It did appear a lot lower than most of the other satellites that we see going overhead. It was the first time I've seen an orbiting object in daylight (besides the moon). I had to stare at it until it went out of view. Wish I'd had a camera with me at the time. My wife and I saw that thing go by in daylight, about two hours before sunset, a couple weeks ago. The sunlight reflected off it right at us, and it was SOOOO bright. We could easily make out the shape and the fact that it was tumbling. It did appear a lot lower than most of the other satellites that we see going overhead. It was the first time I’ve seen an orbiting object in daylight (besides the moon). I had to stare at it until it went out of view. Wish I’d had a camera with me at the time.

]]> By: Das Boese http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-1/#comment-420221 Das Boese Wed, 21 Sep 2011 20:29:46 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420221 Hm, isn't it possible that the "tumble" is intentional? A lot of spacecraft are intentionally sent tumbling for atmosheric reentry to help break them up and maximize drag. Hm, isn’t it possible that the “tumble” is intentional?

A lot of spacecraft are intentionally sent tumbling for atmosheric reentry to help break them up and maximize drag.

]]> By: Ribert http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-1/#comment-420210 Ribert Wed, 21 Sep 2011 19:56:16 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420210 @Megan McC - Apparently a number of bookmakers have already opened betting lines on where UARS will come down. Pacific Ocean is currently odds-on (like that should be a real surprise). @Megan McC – Apparently a number of bookmakers have already opened betting lines on where UARS will come down. Pacific Ocean is currently odds-on (like that should be a real surprise).

]]> By: Marco Langbroek http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-1/#comment-420207 Marco Langbroek Wed, 21 Sep 2011 19:41:52 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420207 @ Phil, Regarding update #1: "Friday" in terms of US local time: expressed in UTC, early Saturday is however definitely still in the picture. @ Phil, Regarding update #1: “Friday” in terms of US local time: expressed in UTC, early Saturday is however definitely still in the picture.

]]> By: TStein http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-1/#comment-420205 TStein Wed, 21 Sep 2011 19:40:35 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420205 I did a back of the envelope calculations when the number of 1 out of 3200 first appeared, because it seemed way too big of a chance to me. I assumed 6 billion instead of 7 billion people if I recall correctly. Nonetheless, reverse engineering that value I arrived at a 1 square meter cross section for each person. This means, again if I calculated correctly, that the average person in this model had a square meter of area around them such that if the center of any one of the debris pieces struck within this square meter it would hit them. This roughly corresponds the center of the debris pieces being within a 2 foot (radius) circle from the center of the person. This would agree with a degree piece that is roughly 2-3 feet across. I am curious how people being inside of buildings affect this. I did a back of the envelope calculations when the number of 1 out of 3200 first appeared, because it seemed way too big of a chance to me. I assumed 6 billion instead of 7 billion people if I recall correctly. Nonetheless, reverse engineering that value I arrived at a 1 square meter cross section for each person. This means, again if I calculated correctly, that the average person in this model had a square meter of area around them such that if the center of any one of the debris pieces struck within this square meter it would hit them. This roughly corresponds the center of the debris pieces being within a 2 foot (radius) circle from the center of the person. This would agree with a degree piece that is roughly 2-3 feet across.

I am curious how people being inside of buildings affect this.

]]> By: Megan McC http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-1/#comment-420201 Megan McC Wed, 21 Sep 2011 19:27:22 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420201 Phil, You should run a You Arse! sweepstake of impact zones. Closest to within 50 nautical miles is the winner. Anywhere between 57 degrees North or South of the equator. In honour of Douglas Adams my money is on it coming down somewhere around Belgium man, Belgium. Phil, You should run a You Arse! sweepstake of impact zones. Closest to within 50 nautical miles is the winner. Anywhere between 57 degrees North or South of the equator. In honour of Douglas Adams my money is on it coming down somewhere around Belgium man, Belgium.

]]> By: Chris A. http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-1/#comment-420198 Chris A. Wed, 21 Sep 2011 19:21:50 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420198 @Bill3 (#7): "If you had a 1 in 3200 chance of killing some random person on earth through your actions, would you consider that acceptable?" What are the odds of killing someone simply by getting behind the wheel of an automobile daily? @Bill3 (#7):
“If you had a 1 in 3200 chance of killing some random person on earth through your actions, would you consider that acceptable?”

What are the odds of killing someone simply by getting behind the wheel of an automobile daily?

]]> By: DennyMo http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-1/#comment-420193 DennyMo Wed, 21 Sep 2011 18:25:17 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420193 Oops, yeah, I left out a comma... Oops, yeah, I left out a comma…

]]> By: Krish http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/09/21/nasa-satellite-due-to-burn-up-some-time-in-the-next-few-days/comment-page-1/#comment-420191 Krish Wed, 21 Sep 2011 18:15:23 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=37996#comment-420191 Would it be a fair hypothesis to say a tumbling object would burn/breakup more than a steady one? Would it be a fair hypothesis to say a tumbling object would burn/breakup more than a steady one?

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