Comments on: UARS update 2: new predicted re-entry at 00:58 UTC

By: Tom (H. Type)

Tom (H. Type) — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 19:38:37 +0000

If the reentry time is just 20 min late, it could my house…I’m glad I still have that big drum of SkyLab repellent sitting in the back yard. Bought that back in 79…Pretty good investment, I’d say.

By: Lorena

Lorena — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 17:45:50 +0000

hehe I’m from argentina and I am used to GMT so when you say UTC I have no idea what you were talking about so even if you put UTC for the rest of the world, maybe we don’t know what it is, I had to search what UTC is

By: Trebuchet

Trebuchet — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 16:04:50 +0000

Hmm, only half an orbit from me now. Could be interesting this evening.

By: Wzrd1

Wzrd1 — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 15:49:37 +0000

Report Date/Time 2011-09-23 15:33:00 GMT
Predicted Decay Time 2011-09-24 03:34:00 GMT +/- 9 Hours
Predicted Decay Location 36° S, 54.8° E
Direction descending
Inclination 56.9°
Revolution Number 10920
High Interest Object Y
Next Report 6 Hours

By: Pete Jackson

Pete Jackson — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 15:27:44 +0000

Now it’s at:

24 SEP 2011 @ 03:16 UTC ± 5 hours

By: Abuelo Paul

Abuelo Paul — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 15:08:39 +0000

And as an afterthought. it may be hard work for the Americans to follow a Universal Time Clock notation but it is far more difficult for the rest of us to try convert back from EST, PST west coast sun down or Hawian 5 o’clock time stamps on all things NASA. Stop being so insular and realise that timepieces and notation have been around longer than America.

By: Follow Up of the Day: UARS Satellite May Fall Into South Pacific - TDW Geeks

Follow Up of the Day: UARS Satellite May Fall Into South Pacific - TDW Geeks — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 14:55:15 +0000

[...] Bad Astronomer Phil Plait points out, these predictions could be off by as much as 7 hours in either direction, so we still don’t [...]

By: Abuelo Paul

Abuelo Paul — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 14:49:58 +0000

I have to admit, as I have been following this story about 4 days now, NASA seem very unconcerned about being exact in the final re-entry point, other than to re-assure the citizens of the good ole USofA that it won’t hit them. And who cares about the rest of the world? There is no world outside the US. We are led to believe. Well hello. I am in the Canaries, British, and just as concerned as to where it may fall. Mainly cos I want to get pictures of the burnout.
So Please señores at NASA. MORE INFORMATION.
Your TIP messages give more info , and even that is spartan. “more information in 12 hours” there may not be 12 hours to prepare tripods and stuff.
21st century technology is too good to be plausibly denying where this debris will finally crash through. So stop the kidology, get real and spill the beans.

By: Trebuchet

Trebuchet — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 14:30:22 +0000

Hmm, missing here by a little over two orbits. What’s the orbital period? That low, I’d guess it’s down to not much over an hour?

@Jupiter is big: 1 in 3200 is the chance of it hitting someone, anywhere in the world. For the chance of hitting you, divide by about 7 billion. Your chances of winning the Lotto are probably better.

Edited to add: Also, It was originally intended that it would be retrieved by the space shuttle, same way it was launched.

By: Mike notUSA

Mike notUSA — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 14:22:10 +0000

NASA: “Re-entry is possible sometime during the afternoon or early evening of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be passing over North America during that time period.”
As if it is no problem if a non-american gets killed or his property gets smashed by a chunk of the UARS.
The arrogance and contempt of NASA. Urrgh.

By: Richard Drumm The Astronomy Bum

Richard Drumm The Astronomy Bum — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 13:29:48 +0000

Hang in there UARS! Delay just a few minutes & you can land in my woods!
Pretty please with neutrino sprinkles?

By: JupiterIsBig

JupiterIsBig — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 13:15:33 +0000

So NASA launched it – I’m 100% sure they knew it would be a hazard when it crashed. NASA ain’t commercial folks – why didn’t they save some fuel to actually guide it into the southern ocean ? At -50 deg latitude, there ain’t much to hit !
1 in 3200 is many times greater than your chances of winning Lotto, or NASA’s chance of getting proper funding compared to Haliburton !

By: BigBob

BigBob — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 13:08:50 +0000

Here’s where you get your UARS updates:

http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Sep-2011/index.html
look towards the bottom of the list

N2yo.com would give you a live display of where UARS is but their servers are overwhelmed!
So try heavens-above.com instead, then click on UARS, then click on Orbit – that’s where she is. Refresh the page to get an updated position.

Bob(Big)

By: dcsohl

dcsohl — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 12:44:50 +0000

icemith@17: At the bottom of the post, under all the Facebook/Twitter stuff, it says, “September 22nd, 2011 9:07 PM”. Now, Phil is in Colorado, so that’s MDT (UTC-6), so it was posted at 03:07 UTC on the 23rd. (And on November 6, it will change to MST which is UTC-7.)

I’m always a bit surprised that it is MDT; that Phil’s blog doesn’t timestamp in UTC or maybe Julian Day Number.

By: Lorena

Lorena — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 12:41:33 +0000

death from the skies!! it’s real!! I hope it doesnt hit me in the head XD XD

By: Wzrd1

Wzrd1 — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 12:32:25 +0000

Space-track is holding reentry at
Report Date/Time 2011-09-23 00:17:00 GMT
Predicted Decay Time 2011-09-24 00:42:00 GMT +/- 15 Hours
Predicted Decay Location 46.1° S, 112.7° E
Direction descending
Inclination 56.9°
Revolution Number 10917
High Interest Object Y
Next Report 12 Hours

By: icemith

icemith — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 11:06:00 +0000

I would love to have had a timeline IN the post, as it is impossibe to determine anything really concrete as there is no indication as to when the post was actually … er, posted. My mailbox says, “Today, 3:34pm”, today being Friday, 23rd Sept., 2011, here in Eastern Australia.

Now I’m sure that that time is not the actual time BA (hi, Phil), posted, just the time I received it via Feedblitz. I am typing this at 8:45pm or the UTC time of 10:45 am (Friday). Actually I prefer the 24 hour clock, but as the post is written in ordinary clock time, and I imagine that to be a clockface, you know the round thing with hands.

So at this time, exactly is/WAS the UARS Satellite, and which orbit was it in and over which point of the surface of the Earth? Maybe somebody can say it just passed overhead.

This point of time reference, position and direction travelling, and the actual day posted is very important to others of us who are in different parts of the world. Much as I like New York, (visited), London, (not yet), and Sydney, (where I live), they are not the center of the world, and the only accepted time reference is UTC, then in these posts, it should at least, be provided as well as the local variants for those in the same timezone.

Please.

Ivan.

By: Slugsie

Slugsie — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 10:49:27 +0000

Cool. If that map is accurate, and I’m reading it correctly) it looks like it could be passing almost directly over my hear about 35minutes after predicted re-entry. That’s a little after midnight here, and I was hoping to be out with my scope anyway assuming the clouds let up (current forecast is 50/50).

By: Steve

Steve — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 10:37:05 +0000

The white lines showing the day/night boundary nicely illustrate that today is the equinox

By: Neil NZ

Neil NZ — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 09:35:44 +0000

Hey, the South Pacific is a big place, but it is still a little too close to home!

By: MHS

MHS — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 09:25:28 +0000

@13. Marco Langbroek
Thanks! I’ll be looking up just in case .

By: Marco Langbroek

Marco Langbroek — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 08:59:27 +0000

@ 12 MHS:
Best for us in Holland would be decay near 21 UTC, 23rd.

At this moment, projected re-entry times are still shifting by several hours with each new orbital update so anything is still possible.

By: MHS

MHS — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 08:01:55 +0000

What I don’t understand is how they ruled out a reentry over North America yesterday, even though this graph clearly shows it is still very well possible.

Anyway, judging by this graph alone it is most likely to come down either in the North Atlantic or in the South Pacific. Still hoping for a nice flash over Holland though .

By: CameronSS

CameronSS — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 07:41:11 +0000

@Valtra: I hope that’s what they mean, otherwise I’m confused as to how they can have a 14-hour window, but dead-centered down to the minute. Seems like if it’s +/-7hrs they should just call it 0100UTC.

By: krankie UK

krankie UK — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 07:31:03 +0000

I love the way NASA are still saying it won’t pass over North America despite the latest prediction of re-entry on a later orbit doing precisely that.

Good news for the UK though. The three preceding orbits do fly over us but this one doesn’t.

The new prediction is on an orbit that also flys over Libya. The odds that it takes out Colonel Gadaffi just shortened. LOL.