Comments on: UARS update 3: new predicted re-entry tonight at 03:16 UTC +/- 5 hrs

By: Wzrd1

Wzrd1 — Sat, 24 Sep 2011 02:17:50 +0000

Interesting.
JSpOC has different numbers:
TIP Reports for Object 21701, UARS, US
Report Date/Time 2011-09-24 01:59:00 GMT
Predicted Decay Time 2011-09-24 04:16:00 GMT +/- 2 Hours
Predicted Decay Location 30.9° N, 218.9° E
Direction ascending
Inclination 56.9°
Revolution Number 10921
High Interest Object Y
Final Report

By: Shoeshine Boy

Shoeshine Boy — Sat, 24 Sep 2011 02:04:48 +0000

Latest update: 24 SEP 2011 @ 05:10 UTC ± 2 hours

http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html

By: Greg Laden

Greg Laden — Sat, 24 Sep 2011 02:01:50 +0000

Starting to look pretty good for eastern Australia, though it would be daylight: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2011/09/uars_update_lookin_good_austra.php

By: Pete Jackson

Pete Jackson — Sat, 24 Sep 2011 02:01:48 +0000

Now they’re saying 0510 GMT +/- 2 hours. Only land areas possible now are Africa, Australia, and Canada.

By: Larry

Larry — Sat, 24 Sep 2011 01:46:51 +0000

Any chance I could see this thing before it comes down even as a moving satellite tonight in ga. if so let me know and the direction to look.

thks for yourhelp

By: kurt_eh

kurt_eh — Sat, 24 Sep 2011 01:44:36 +0000

Just watch out for that toilet seat!

By: Bernie

Bernie — Sat, 24 Sep 2011 01:09:20 +0000

It’s 02:05 am British Summer Time now (GMT + 1hr) – anyone know where it is now and if it’ll be visible from the UK in the next few hours?

By: rfw

rfw — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 23:47:13 +0000

update…. http://elenin.paranomalo.us/2011/09/24-sep-2011-0404-utc-%C2%B1-3-hours/

By: Wzrd1

Wzrd1 — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 23:39:18 +0000

Ceramicfundamentalist, if I looked up tonight, I’d drown. It’s raining pitchforks here in Pennsylvania.
Hope it stays clear and you get a good view!

By: ceramicfundamentalist

ceramicfundamentalist — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 23:32:50 +0000

looks like it will be passing near newfoundland at 11pm, 12:30am, 2am and 3:30am local times. i will definitely be outside looking up, hoping for clear skies.

By: Wzrd1

Wzrd1 — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 23:00:59 +0000

TIP Reports for Object 21701, UARS, US
Report Date/Time 2011-09-23 22:43:00 GMT
Predicted Decay Time 2011-09-24 04:49:00 GMT +/- 4 Hours
Predicted Decay Location 2.9° N, 5.5° E
Direction descending
Inclination 56.9°
Revolution Number 10920
High Interest Object N
Next Report 2 Hours

That is from JSpOC.

By: Creekrock

Creekrock — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 22:50:02 +0000

Ok..i have been doing calculations on the re_entry point, and there is a 70.82% chance it hits water…these calculations were based on hours of research determining the land/water ratio and the realization that nobody knows.

By: VinceRN

VinceRN — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 22:33:45 +0000

By the latest prediction I’ll be able to see it if it’s 15 minutes after the predicted time. Clear skies too, which is odd here. Finger, toes, and eyes crossed. Outside looking NNW or so from a hilltop at after 2100 or so, of course it won’t happen, but it’s getting possibler.

By: walt B.

walt B. — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 22:28:50 +0000

I’m in Ca. Hope I get a glimps. I think it will pass to my South.

By: Andrew Cooper

Andrew Cooper — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 22:13:17 +0000

So the current prediction is for just south of the Big Island? Hard to tell how far south from the low res charts. Do I need to make a point of watching the southern sky at 18:16 this afternoon?

By: Number 6

Number 6 — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 22:05:15 +0000

This all reminds me of some commercials that ran many, many years ago for the GTE corporation (General Telephone & Electronics Corporation) about how they had satellites in space.

At the time, I rented a small house on a farm, and the only phone service available was from GTE. The service was terrible! I’d be talking to someone and the connection would be dropped…just like w/ some cell phones today. Or, you’d pick up the line and someone would be talking (it was a private line). Or, you’d hear some strangers suddenly talking when you were having a conversation.

…..So, when the commercials ran regarding GTE’s satellites, for quite a while every time I’d step outside the house or any building, I’d look up to see if one of their creations was crashing to earth and heading toward me.

By: WendellFisher

WendellFisher — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 21:59:06 +0000

Jimthomson: It can not hit ANYWHERE on earth even within a plus/minus 5-hour window. That’s because in one orbit (90 minutes or so) it does not pass over the entire earth. A ring that is more-or-less directly below it. Subsequent orbits pass over different places on the earth because the earth is turning under it. So very very very approximately, it would take 12 hours (1/2 an earth rotation) before it had gone over every place on earth to within say a thousand miles or so.

There is a lot more to it, including especially the angle of the orbit to the equator; I’m only trying to give you a feel for the issue; dont’ take the above too literally.

By: Kimi Vaughan

Kimi Vaughan — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 21:55:06 +0000

NASA warns everyone that if they are to find any debris that they think belongs to UARS then you have to call your local police etc etc to report it and you should not touch it as it remains the property of USA!!! Finders are NOT keepers and you could well face a fine etc for keeping parts of the UARS or trying to sell them on ebay etc!!!

By: BigBob

BigBob — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 21:54:45 +0000

@skywatcherz

UARS passed south of the UK at about 10:06 pm local time (less than an hour ago). It was in Earth’s shadow. I looked out to see if there was already an plasma glow but nothing seen. Guys in Holland and Norway did the same and saw nothing.

@ Robin B

Predictions have moved on from the Sahara. Latest estimates are based on she ditches off the west coast of Canada +- 90 mins. The ground track reaches across the Hudson Bay (see below).

See this link courtesy of Simone at digilander.libero.it
http://tinyurl.com/3hq8hg4

Bob(Big)

By: skywatcherz

skywatcherz — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 21:35:18 +0000

whens it coming over the uk & where? please tell me’ somebody.. anybody.

By: Keith Bowden

Keith Bowden — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 20:58:04 +0000

You just know there are people running pools on this…

By: Robin B

Robin B — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 20:37:03 +0000

Am I reading the chart right and it will be over Valencia, Spain about 7 minutes before the expected re-entry? So, like around 3:09 UTC?

I’d probably see that as a ground-based observer, right? Brb, setting alarm clock!

By: pete

pete — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 20:19:38 +0000

Impact zone is the Sahara? Why am I seeing a remake of “The Gods Must Be Crazy” ?

By: BigBob

BigBob — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 20:12:05 +0000

Latest advice from Harro Zimmer
Report timestamped 19:30 UTC today

1991-063B (#21701) UARS

Based on the last five – partially inhomogeneous -
ELSETs 266.5014… – 266.7449… the fresh decay
prediction:
24 September,04:19 UTC +/- 90 minutes
ascending over 39.55°N, 227.53°E
(Over the Pacific, on the way to the US West Coast,
then crossing Canada)

But I think we will possibly see an additional rev.

Harro Zimmer Berlin (Germany)

Bob(Big)

By: Betta

Betta — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 20:04:39 +0000

Larry,

03:16 UTC = 03:16 – 4 EDT = 23:16 EDT i.e. 11:16 p.m. EDT

If you are not using Daylight Savings Time, then it will be 00:16 a.m. EST tomorrow (Saturday, September 24th)