And when was the last time an end-of-the-world doom crier was right?
Let me give you a hint: Never.

In fairness, end-of-the-world criers can only be right once. Just sayin’…

(I’m being difficult, yes I get your point :p )

Where’d you get your information? I Googled “fema coffins”. The first non-conspiracy theory site I found was a Popular Mechanics article which said (a) there were about 50,000 at a particular site and (b) the site belonged to a private company. See here: http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/news/4312850

“Starship Troopers” reference I think.

Buenos Aires is the closest city to the South Atlantic Anomaly, where the Earth’s magnetic field dips down close to the atmosphere. That’s where we have the least protection from all things spacey, including meteorites!

So, they’re all going to hit Buenos Aires.

[I just realised that I suck at Poes, so for the record, I just made all this stuff up, except that the South Atlantic Anomaly really does exist].

@AnonRealist (14). Getting ready for the Wizard of Oz production? (i.e. scarecrow – - – strawman).

Carl Sagan mentions this in his superb Pale Blue Dot book (Chapter is titled “Marsh of Cimmeria” if I recall right.)

So cl0se but wrong spelling. Turns out according to wikipedia :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pale_Blue_Dot_(book)#Chapters

Its chapter 18 – The Marsh of Camarina which is a reference to a historical story :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamarina,_Sicily

that applies nicely here as a metaphor.

If you want you can hear Carl Sagan explain why here :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VikLpZ6Al64

himself. Amazing what you can find on Youtube ain’t it?

On the up side, if it WAS on a collision course with Earth, the Earth is really big compared to that asteroid, cities are really small compared to the Earth and few in number, so the chances are greater it’d take a dunk in the ocean or other some sparsely inhabited part of the Earth.

If an impactor WERE to hit the ocean, the chances are it would be more destructive than if it hits land, because of the large tsunami it would generate (which could take out several cities, not just one).

Just 2 B clear, your show is good. your site is good, but can you understand my lack of trust that WE have the ways and means, RIGHT NOW to do anything about an NEO if it were discovered to be likely to hit US? the fact that the Powers dat B will not trifle with even so Tiny an object to prove that they could alter its orbit substantially, etc. Proves rather that they most likely KNOW that they could not, neither have any certainty of the outcome.
Am I speaking english well enough to be understood here?

No.

Carl (33) said:

If anybody is having trouble picturing how much this asteroid will miss us by, try this for scale:

Picture a standard-sized basketball court, and imagine that the Earth is a basketball sitting on the floor directly under the hoop. This asteroid is like throwing a pebble at the basketball… and not even getting the pebble inside the three point line.

(On this scale, by the way, the moon is a tennis ball somewhere close to the sideline).

Exactly.

Erm . . . what’s that in cricket pitches?

So there have never been massive natural disasters on earth caused by asteroids, comets, volcano’s, earthquakes, or solar storms? Earth doesn’t wobble at regular intervals? Larger magnetic fields don’t cause earth to come into compliance like hydrogen molecules in an MRI machine? All previous predictions of disasters made by astronomers, geologists, etc have been wrong, but not you the magic skeptic, right… Never have a large % of all species at a given time disappeared in a short period of time? A large magnetic Pole shift hasn’t occurred, I guess NASA is in on the hype too then? I’m glad you cleared that up, I had been relying on science, fossil records, geological records, anthropologists findings, and written history, but some bitter guy holding two spheres up a good distance from each other sure makes me feel confident. Who is the scientist and who is the bitter hand-waving man clinging to his desire for an unchanging world…

Heh. But this little rock won’t hit the Earth, and it won’t have any effect on the Earth.

What is the relevance of all the other … er … stuff you bring up?

Best course of action is probably to keep searching for, discovering and then studying Near Earth Objects and to make sure we know well in advance if something is likely to strike us. Only when we *really* need to use the asteroid / comet shifting technology should it be developed although we’re well advised to launch many (and manned) missions to explore asteroids (& comets) so that we have a lot better understanding their likely properties. Hopefully – & most likely – we will have a very long “lead” time to act from the time we find an NEO on collision course to the predicted impact date.

Is what I intended to have as the final draft above.

***********************************************************************

@46. Ben H. :

I suppose what I really want is a post that both condemns the nutters and points out how this IS an important and dangerous issue. It wouldn’t be much longer to include that point. My issue is that Phil is trying to counteract the doomsdayers by very strongly saying “don’t worry” to the point of being a bit hyperbolic (as pointed out by a few readers who saw a flaw in his “close flyby” speculation). A rational person who doesn’t know much about space might read this post and think “oh, okay this stuff isnt all that big a deal.” When in fact it IS a big deal just not for the reasons the fearmongers present initially.
Thoughts?

Agreed.

Best to *both* debunk the Hoagland type Conspiracy theorists *and* also remind people that the threat of bolide impacts while small and not from this particualr rock is real.

But I will add that you (or the BA in this case) can and may be well advised to do thees things separately in separate posts.

I’m certainly NOT getting the impression that the BA is denying the real potential for trouble NEO impacts have. Not after reading his second book especially!

*******************************************************************

@47. Wzrd1 :

On the up side, if it WAS on a collision course with Earth, the Earth is really big compared to that asteroid, cities are really small compared to the Earth and few in number, so the chances are greater it’d take a dunk in the ocean ..

Hmm… I could be mistaken naturally but from what I gather an ocean impact is actually worse due to the generation of tsunamis which would potentially wipe out *many* cities and devastate the coastlines of many nations simultaneously. :-0

The best case scenario, OTOH, would be an impact hitting :

.. some sparsely inhabited part of the Earth.

The sparser inhabited the better. Deserts, steppes and taiga /tundra. Places like the middle of the Sahara, maybe Antartica, the Gobi etc. would be best. The far reaches of Siberia would be ideal.

Which does make you wonder about our “luck” with the 1908 Tunguska impactor hitting just there! Co-incidence?*

—————
* Yes.

No.

Just 2 B clear, your show is good. your site is good, but can you understand my lack of trust that WE have the ways and means, RIGHT NOW to do anything about an NEO if it were discovered to be likely to hit US?

Right now I don’t think we could deflect an incoming asteroid.

But three things to consider ’bout this issue :

1) The good news is there isn’t one out there and we’ve been looking & checking pretty hard.

2) There are a lot of good ideas which are technologically plausible solutions, some of which include using a “gravity tractor” or a mass driver and even painting one side of the asteroid white to use the pressure of sunlight to deflect it. Carl Sagan mentions this in his superb Pale Blue Dot book (Chapter is titled “Marsh of Cimmeria” if I recall right.)

3) As Sagan points out in the conclusion to that chapter, NOT having the power to move asteroids may actually be a good thing to some extent. Because if we can move asteroids away from impacting our planet, we – or unscrupluous nations / parties can also move the same asteroids *towards* impacting into Earth as well!

Best course of action is probably to keep searching for, discovering and then studying Near earth objects and to make sure we know well inadvance if something is likely to strike us. Only when we *really* need to use the asteroid /comet shifting technology should it be developed although we’re well advised to launch many (and manned) missions to explore asteroids (& comets) take place so we have a lot better ideas of their likely properties.

Hopefully, we will most likely have a very long “lead” time to act fromfinding an object oncollision course until the impact date.

PS. I don’t think its a question of “trust” so much as knowledge and understanding. I do trust the BA and other astronomers and am pretty sure the rest of us can too.

Sadly, I’m sure there’ll be many more occassions that talk will need wheeling out – every time a small asteroid or comet comes anywhere nearby.

Once I would have thought that Humanity had advanced from the days when a passing comet or asteroid or eclipse brought terror to those uninformed and was exploited by those selling anti-comet pills, conspiracy theories and doom-crying. I would have thought once that people generally knew enough basic science not to be taken in quite so readily anymore. Sad to find that’s not the case although I’m no longer even surprised by the silliness some folks will fall for.

(NB. For the latest update on the BA blog – this one – courtesy of NASA click on my name.)

Science, bitches – it works.

I have to wonder, what proportion of these people are also global warming deniers?

YU55 is an ideal situation to garner awareness and support about the future of any planetary defense. I also agree that the big picture of important and dangerous issues should be addressed as often as possible.

Cheers

You make a good point in response and I agree.

I suppose what I really want is a post that both condemns the nutters and points out how this IS an important and dangerous issue. It wouldn’t be much longer to include that point. My issue is that Phil is trying to counteract the doomsdayers by very strongly saying “don’t worry” to the point of being a bit hyperbolic (as pointed out by a few readers who saw a flaw in his “close flyby” speculation). A rational person who doesn’t know much about space might read this post and think “oh, okay this stuff isnt all that big a deal.” When in fact it IS a big deal just not for the reasons the fearmongers present initially.

Thoughts?
- Ben H.
Mission Control, Houston, TX

Right now? Possibly not, depending on how massive the NEO is, and how long it will be before impact. In these situations, time and mass matter.

Additionally, as Puppygod explained, for an object the size of YU55 hitting the Earth, evacuation from the affected areas would be an option.

“…the fact that the Powers dat B will not trifle with even so Tiny an object to prove that they could alter its orbit substantially, etc. Proves rather that they most likely KNOW that they could not, neither have any certainty of the outcome.”

I don’t see how you can make that claim. For one thing it was discovered less than 6 years ago. It takes longer than that to put together a proper space mission. For another, why fiddle with it when it’s obviously not a concern at the moment. And for another, we’ve already shifted the orbit of a comet with a spacecraft impactor – do you remember Deep Impact and Comet Tempel 1. So we’ve at leasted demonstrated the technique.

“Am I speaking english well enough to be understood here?”

Just about.

“One day, one of these doomsayers will be right. It has to happen. There’s always someone saying the world will end for this or that reason. One day,e eventually, it will. Some lucky doomsayer will be right. But at least we won’t have to listen to him gloating…”

bahhahaahahahahahahahah. LMAO

Joseph G said:

“So this is what I don’t get: if someone as very credulous as I was could become disillusioned by all these predictions repeatedly failing to come true, why then does anyone still listen to these people!?

I wonder the same thing. I think you possess critical thinking skills and an analytical mind which many others do not have, or they do not try to access, or they are just lazy and like being ignorant as opposed to finding the truth. I also like what Chris L said @26. But perhaps it is more simple, or like

James Said:

“To quote the philosopher Ron White: You can’t fix stupid.”

@28. I had the same question about the “a pox on anitvaxxer’s” post a couple days ago. I thought that rather than condemning these people as ignorant criminals that we should try to educate them and seek to improve on the future through that education. Thinking about this for some time…………I think by condemning them it Does raise awareness to others. Those who are not willing to “seek the truth” (as Joseph G kinda explained) will never be willing to find it. And as Chris L mentioned there is an inherent drive to “believe” in something, and many do not care to take the time or effort to check on what it is that they believe. Presenting the facts and calling out liars is an all important step I think. Garnering support for planetary defense is a great focus to have. It is positive, it is inspiring and it is the right thing to do, (someday it could save billions of lives…it could be the greatest defensive maneuver of all of our known history) however, there are SOOO many different types of people. The nutters need their nuts cracked and the inspiration for advancing science is kinda rolled up in Phil’s message of “what is really going on” IMO.

AnonRealist said:

“I’m glad you cleared that up, I had been relying on science, fossil records, geological records, anthropologists findings, and written history, but some bitter guy holding two spheres up a good distance from each other sure makes me feel confident.”

It is nice to have things presented as simply as possible sometimes, along with the more difficult information. I think teaching or educating has long been about both: as simple as you can make it & the facts presented; which is what Phil does very consistently IMO. Simply, many people do not have the expertise or the where with all to interpret scientific data.