Comments on: My asteroid impact talk is now on TED! http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/ I am an astronomer, writer, and skeptic. I likes reality the way it is, and I aims to keep it that way. My real name is Phil Plait, and I run the Bad Astronomy blog. Fri, 25 May 2012 04:54:40 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Apophis | We Will Be Here http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-494694 Apophis | We Will Be Here Fri, 16 Mar 2012 17:20:39 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-494694 [...] at the Southwest Research Institute Dr. Clark Chapman to 1 in a million by “Bad Astronomer” Phil Plait. Most sources, including information from NASA, have settled on a 1 in 250,000 chance. If it is [...] [...] at the Southwest Research Institute Dr. Clark Chapman to 1 in a million by “Bad Astronomer” Phil Plait. Most sources, including information from NASA, have settled on a 1 in 250,000 chance. If it is [...]

]]> By: Matt B. http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-481623 Matt B. Wed, 15 Feb 2012 05:29:56 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-481623 That's a very "White Stripes" color scheme there, Phil. @ 17 StJobe: <i>'A typo there in your latin; it should be “per ardua ad astra”, not “asta”.'</i> Well, I'm sure Nick and Nora's dog would enjoy the company. That’s a very “White Stripes” color scheme there, Phil.

@ 17 StJobe:
‘A typo there in your latin; it should be “per ardua ad astra”, not “asta”.’

Well, I’m sure Nick and Nora’s dog would enjoy the company.

]]> By: Robert T. Permar http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-446138 Robert T. Permar Sun, 27 Nov 2011 10:51:20 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-446138 No, but I don't have math and models to back up a claim that 50 sticks of dynamite placed inside a 5' x 10' x 8' wooden shed and detonated would explode it into shards and splinters and completely destroy it either. If "math and models" are what's holding up the show, um, I'm really hoping that there's a cool computer simulation program that does this sort of thing. (Okay, guys, there's a skeptical crowd out there. We gotta make ABSOLUTE sure that 500 4.5 megaton H-bombs is enough to take out a rock in space a little less than 3 football fields across). Yes, I realize that sarcasm doesn't prove the point, but your question more suggests arguing, hubris, or frankly, ignorance, and is ludicrous and inane. As far as presenting this as a solution to the scientific community, only lack of ethics or arrogance would expect me to present this as theoretical. The technology of blowing up a huge rock floating in space generally exists, and the scientific community could "run with this" and work out the details if we're genuinely concerned about New York being turned into a crater. Your question more suggests that logistics would defeat this (not enough bombs to go around, etc), not whether the idea has merit scientifically. Robert T. Permar No, but I don’t have math and models to back up a claim that 50 sticks of dynamite placed inside a 5′ x 10′ x 8′ wooden shed and detonated would explode it into shards and splinters and completely destroy it either. If “math and models” are what’s holding up the show, um, I’m really hoping that there’s a cool computer simulation program that does this sort of thing. (Okay, guys, there’s a skeptical crowd out there. We gotta make ABSOLUTE sure that 500 4.5 megaton H-bombs is enough to take out a rock in space a little less than 3 football fields across). Yes, I realize that sarcasm doesn’t prove the point, but your question more suggests arguing, hubris, or frankly, ignorance, and is ludicrous and inane. As far as presenting this as a solution to the scientific community, only lack of ethics or arrogance would expect me to present this as theoretical. The technology of blowing up a huge rock floating in space generally exists, and the scientific community could “run with this” and work out the details if we’re genuinely concerned about New York being turned into a crater. Your question more suggests that logistics would defeat this (not enough bombs to go around, etc), not whether the idea has merit scientifically.

Robert T. Permar

]]> By: Jason Kobos http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-446034 Jason Kobos Sun, 27 Nov 2011 04:50:11 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-446034 Robert do you have math and models to back up your statements? Robert do you have math and models to back up your statements?

]]> By: Robert T. Permar http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-445913 Robert T. Permar Sat, 26 Nov 2011 20:29:22 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-445913 To Randy: (sigh) That's naysaying, not debunking, Randy. Apophis appears to be our most immediate threat. It weighs 30 million tons and is about 300 meters in diameter. For Pity Everlovin' Heaven's Sakes, if 500 ICBMS hit it simultaneously with their standard 4.5 megaton yield, the blessed thing'll be reduced to practically radioactive talcum powder if that much with years, possibly centuries added to arrival time (2 1/4 gigatons are going to seriously slow this thing down, if nothing else). Even if it were just broken up into smaller pieces, they most likely would not pose an appreciable threat to Earth as decades if not centuries would probably be added to the arrival time and they would burn up in the atmosphere when they did arrive or cause negligible destruction if they did impact the Earth's surface. In general terms, the idea is to throw enough "nukes" at it that there aren't "chunks" of the thing left large enough to pose an appreciable threat (I'm guessing that early 21st Century science can make those calculations if preciseness is an issue). Cut the nonsense on this. This is the solution, and that's the way it is. Robert T. Permar To Randy: (sigh) That’s naysaying, not debunking, Randy. Apophis appears to be our most immediate threat. It weighs 30 million tons and is about 300 meters in diameter. For Pity Everlovin’ Heaven’s Sakes, if 500 ICBMS hit it simultaneously with their standard 4.5 megaton yield, the blessed thing’ll be reduced to practically radioactive talcum powder if that much with years, possibly centuries added to arrival time (2 1/4 gigatons are going to seriously slow this thing down, if nothing else). Even if it were just broken up into smaller pieces, they most likely would not pose an appreciable threat to Earth as decades if not centuries would probably be added to the arrival time and they would burn up in the atmosphere when they did arrive or cause negligible destruction if they did impact the Earth’s surface. In general terms, the idea is to throw enough “nukes” at it that there aren’t “chunks” of the thing left large enough to pose an appreciable threat (I’m guessing that early 21st Century science can make those calculations if preciseness is an issue). Cut the nonsense on this. This is the solution, and that’s the way it is.

Robert T. Permar

]]> By: Left_Wing_Fox http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-444992 Left_Wing_Fox Thu, 24 Nov 2011 18:58:07 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-444992 For those skeptical about life under the ice, I'd like to remind them of an article in the very magazine that hosts this blog: http://discovermagazine.com/2008/feb/did-life-evolve-in-ice For those skeptical about life under the ice, I’d like to remind them of an article in the very magazine that hosts this blog:

http://discovermagazine.com/2008/feb/did-life-evolve-in-ice

]]> By: Randy A. http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-444569 Randy A. Wed, 23 Nov 2011 21:51:43 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-444569 The problem with nuking an asteroid is that you might just break it up without changing its trajectory sufficiently... The problem with nuking an asteroid is that you might just break it up without changing its trajectory sufficiently…

]]> By: Robert T. Permar http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-444372 Robert T. Permar Wed, 23 Nov 2011 12:52:44 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-444372 correction of "typos": "instaneous" (sic) to "instantaneous" "experminent"(sic) to "experiment" Robert T. Permar correction of “typos”: “instaneous” (sic) to “instantaneous”
“experminent”(sic) to “experiment”

Robert T. Permar

]]> By: Robert T. Permar http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-444356 Robert T. Permar Wed, 23 Nov 2011 12:18:20 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-444356 Once again, and I say, once again, the most feasible present day solution for an asteroid threat is a multiple and simultaneous missile strike. Gravity tractor? Yeah, if it's the freaking "Death Star" or a shuttlecraft cruising at .7 c. Yes, its probably the first time I've posted this on Discover but it's been on enough locations on the internet to be somewhat noticed since it is a solution. "Armageddon" was full of it as far as dismissing a "hundred nukes" as not being able to "make a dent". That's approximately 450 megatons impacting a huge airless rock in space. It's going to make a SERIOUS dent even if you went out of your way to keep it from making a serious dent (projecting bad thoughts, I don't know). The instanteous heat build up would most likely shatter it in the near absolute zero temperature of space. If that don't get it, the explosive force of 100 H-Bombs (450 megatons) plus one serious head-on collision (de-bunking Armageddon's "it's going too fast" argument) is going to knock the "oomph" out of it at least, ya'd think. If there's a hang-up about "nukes" in space, extreme high explosive. ("Starfish Prime" in 1962 was an experminent in detonating a hydrogen bomb in space. Puts an end to the "it's just a fizzle" crowd) Robert T. Permar BA 1980 Midwestern State University Once again, and I say, once again, the most feasible present day solution for an asteroid threat is a multiple and simultaneous missile strike. Gravity tractor? Yeah, if it’s the freaking “Death Star” or a shuttlecraft cruising at .7 c. Yes, its probably the first time I’ve posted this on Discover but it’s been on enough locations on the internet to be somewhat noticed since it is a solution. “Armageddon” was full of it as far as dismissing a “hundred nukes” as not being able to “make a dent”. That’s approximately 450 megatons impacting a huge airless rock in space. It’s going to make a SERIOUS dent even if you went out of your way to keep it from making a serious dent (projecting bad thoughts, I don’t know). The instanteous heat build up would most likely shatter it in the near absolute zero temperature of space. If that don’t get it, the explosive force of 100 H-Bombs (450 megatons) plus one serious head-on collision (de-bunking Armageddon’s “it’s going too fast” argument) is going to knock the “oomph” out of it at least, ya’d think. If there’s a hang-up about “nukes” in space, extreme high explosive.

(“Starfish Prime” in 1962 was an experminent in detonating a hydrogen bomb in space. Puts an end to the “it’s just a fizzle” crowd)

Robert T. Permar
BA 1980 Midwestern State University

]]> By: Blob http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-444353 Blob Wed, 23 Nov 2011 12:01:17 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-444353 Asteroid (165347) Philplait makes its closest approach to the Earth (1.396 AU) on the 23rd November, 2011. Asteroid (165347) Philplait makes its closest approach to the Earth (1.396 AU) on the 23rd November, 2011.

]]> By: stjobe http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-444293 stjobe Wed, 23 Nov 2011 09:10:44 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-444293 A typo there in your latin; it should be "per ardua ad astra", not "asta". Oh, and great talk! A typo there in your latin; it should be “per ardua ad astra”, not “asta”.
Oh, and great talk!

]]> By: Catalyst http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-444090 Catalyst Tue, 22 Nov 2011 23:47:50 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-444090 Great talk! You were even the headliner in the weekly TED email! Great talk! You were even the headliner in the weekly TED email!

]]> By: Larian LeQuella http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-443966 Larian LeQuella Tue, 22 Nov 2011 19:42:52 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-443966 This video even raised a question on the Astronomy Stack Exchange site. :) http://astronomy.stackexchange.com/questions/1498/apophis-asteriod-concern/1501#1501 This video even raised a question on the Astronomy Stack Exchange site. :)

http://astronomy.stackexchange.com/questions/1498/apophis-asteriod-concern/1501#1501

]]> By: Jules Stoop http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-443942 Jules Stoop Tue, 22 Nov 2011 18:32:58 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-443942 Good talk, Phil! Entertaining and sound. Good talk, Phil! Entertaining and sound.

]]> By: Douglas Troy http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-443935 Douglas Troy Tue, 22 Nov 2011 18:20:38 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-443935 Loved it Phil. Going to share this with my Friends, Circles and anyone else I can think of. Loved it Phil. Going to share this with my Friends, Circles and anyone else I can think of.

]]> By: Matt Polson http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-443934 Matt Polson Tue, 22 Nov 2011 18:17:36 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-443934 I loved the TED talk, but you made an error in magnitude in saying that the impact event released 1 million times the amount of energy contained in every nuclear weapon ever built at the height of the cold war. The United States alone has built a total of about 70k nuclear warheads. Simplifying somewhat, a sphere 5km radius, density 3.0, impact velocity 20km/sec, kinetic energy is 3.14EE23 joules. 1 ton tnt is approximately 4 gigajoules. KE would therefore be (close enough) 78.5 EE12 tons tnt energy equivalent. One millionth of that is only 78.5 megatons of tnt. At the height of the cold war, 3 soviet SS-18 mod 1 warheads would have about that yield. Still, 3.14EE23 joules impacting earth was very catastrophic. Personally, I see the earth crossers as resources and not threats. I loved the TED talk, but you made an error in magnitude in saying that the impact event released 1 million times the amount of energy contained in every nuclear weapon ever built at the height of the cold war. The United States alone has built a total of about 70k nuclear warheads. Simplifying somewhat, a sphere 5km radius, density 3.0, impact velocity 20km/sec, kinetic energy is 3.14EE23 joules. 1 ton tnt is approximately 4 gigajoules. KE would therefore be (close enough) 78.5 EE12 tons tnt energy equivalent. One millionth of that is only 78.5 megatons of tnt. At the height of the cold war, 3 soviet SS-18 mod 1 warheads would have about that yield. Still, 3.14EE23 joules impacting earth was very catastrophic. Personally, I see the earth crossers as resources and not threats.

]]> By: Rallick http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-443908 Rallick Tue, 22 Nov 2011 17:11:24 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-443908 Excellent speech Phil! I thoroughly enjoyed it. Thank you very much for sharing this. Excellent speech Phil! I thoroughly enjoyed it. Thank you very much for sharing this.

]]> By: Paulino http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-443907 Paulino Tue, 22 Nov 2011 17:11:08 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-443907 Great talk, but there was one slide missing (mind the s word): http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lkmogd0meP1qhkozho1_500.jpg :) Great talk, but there was one slide missing (mind the s word):
http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lkmogd0meP1qhkozho1_500.jpg

:)

]]> By: Kristen Merino http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-443897 Kristen Merino Tue, 22 Nov 2011 16:14:20 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-443897 Really fantastic! Loved it! Really fantastic! Loved it!

]]> By: José Pereira http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-443891 José Pereira Tue, 22 Nov 2011 15:53:44 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-443891 Wow Fantastic speech congratulations! Wow Fantastic speech congratulations!

]]> By: Dedalus http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-443888 Dedalus Tue, 22 Nov 2011 15:31:37 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-443888 A minor correction -- "Triskadekaphobia" is a generic fear of the number 13. If you wanna talk fear of Friday the 13th, you may have wanted to use "Paraskavedekatriaphobia," a far more impressive word (IMHO). Onward through the fog! A minor correction — “Triskadekaphobia” is a generic fear of the number 13. If you wanna talk fear of Friday the 13th, you may have wanted to use “Paraskavedekatriaphobia,” a far more impressive word (IMHO).

Onward through the fog!

]]> By: English Pole http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-443878 English Pole Tue, 22 Nov 2011 15:18:02 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-443878 Wow! That's some seriously awesome stuff. Congratulations Phil! Downloading to my iPhone now. Wow! That’s some seriously awesome stuff. Congratulations Phil! Downloading to my iPhone now.

]]> By: Guillermo Abramson http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-443871 Guillermo Abramson Tue, 22 Nov 2011 15:09:48 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-443871 Buenísimo, Phil! Buenísimo, Phil!

]]> By: Messier Tidy Upper http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-443864 Messier Tidy Upper Tue, 22 Nov 2011 14:47:15 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-443864 Congratulations BA. Well done. :-) Congratulations BA. Well done. :-)

]]> By: StubbyGB http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/11/22/my-asteroid-impact-talk-is-now-on-ted/comment-page-1/#comment-443860 StubbyGB Tue, 22 Nov 2011 14:44:56 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=40984#comment-443860 Great speech Phil, you are very good at enthusing your audience. I only have one dissagreement with you though.... 2 years is not enough time. If we discover a Dino-killer on its way to us now, in two years congress will still be arguing with the senate about how to fund the thing. Great speech Phil, you are very good at enthusing your audience.

I only have one dissagreement with you though…. 2 years is not enough time. If we discover a Dino-killer on its way to us now, in two years congress will still be arguing with the senate about how to fund the thing.

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