Comments on: Phobos-Grunt to come down today http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/ I am an astronomer, writer, and skeptic. I likes reality the way it is, and I aims to keep it that way. My real name is Phil Plait, and I run the Bad Astronomy blog. Fri, 25 May 2012 10:08:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Calli Arcale http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-468191 Calli Arcale Tue, 17 Jan 2012 15:35:00 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-468191 Tim -- for some perspective, it's worth noting that Phobos-Grunt was actually intended for the *last* Mars window. It missed that one. So they were already a year and a half behind schedule. That might help explain their "go fever". That, plus the additional urgency of knowing that there was a very real chance that if they didn't launch during this window, Phobos-Grunt would end up in a museum -- and they themselves would be out of job. There's also the matter of engineering talent. They are in a serious situation there, where most of the experienced engineers are close to retirement; they could retire before the next Mars window. There are young engineers to replace them, but they have no experience with deep space flight, because there haven't been any successful deep space flights from Russia since the 80s (and apart from Phobos-Grunt, just one attempted flight, about fifteen years ago). I think they had little choice but to launch Phobos-Grunt in this window. It was probably their last chance. Tim — for some perspective, it’s worth noting that Phobos-Grunt was actually intended for the *last* Mars window. It missed that one. So they were already a year and a half behind schedule. That might help explain their “go fever”. That, plus the additional urgency of knowing that there was a very real chance that if they didn’t launch during this window, Phobos-Grunt would end up in a museum — and they themselves would be out of job. There’s also the matter of engineering talent. They are in a serious situation there, where most of the experienced engineers are close to retirement; they could retire before the next Mars window. There are young engineers to replace them, but they have no experience with deep space flight, because there haven’t been any successful deep space flights from Russia since the 80s (and apart from Phobos-Grunt, just one attempted flight, about fifteen years ago).

I think they had little choice but to launch Phobos-Grunt in this window. It was probably their last chance.

]]> By: Philip http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467983 Philip Mon, 16 Jan 2012 22:17:05 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467983 I was on flight CX251 from Hong Kong to London Heathrow last night. As a result of the re-entry we were required to orbit for 50 minutes in Chinese airspace as a result of space junk re-entry. I presume this to have been related to Phobos-Grunt. A diversion to Amsterdam for more fuel and we were only three hours late into London. Notwithstanding low probablities of impact, I didn't mind being late just on the off chance... I was on flight CX251 from Hong Kong to London Heathrow last night. As a result of the re-entry we were required to orbit for 50 minutes in Chinese airspace as a result of space junk re-entry. I presume this to have been related to Phobos-Grunt.

A diversion to Amsterdam for more fuel and we were only three hours late into London. Notwithstanding low probablities of impact, I didn’t mind being late just on the off chance…

]]> By: Tim http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467886 Tim Mon, 16 Jan 2012 15:31:42 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467886 Another major embarrassment for the Russian space federation. The mission was ill-prepared according to the space chief in order to make the launch in time for the narrow Earth-Mars transit window. They need to get their act together because what happens when a Soyuz rocket carrying American astronauts to the ISS explodes?? They've got to have better accountability over there! Another major embarrassment for the Russian space federation. The mission was ill-prepared according to the space chief in order to make the launch in time for the narrow Earth-Mars transit window. They need to get their act together because what happens when a Soyuz rocket carrying American astronauts to the ISS explodes?? They’ve got to have better accountability over there!

]]> By: Marco Langbroek http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467866 Marco Langbroek Mon, 16 Jan 2012 14:27:54 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467866 @ 24. Messier Tidy Upper: The BBC apparently bases this on a Ria-Novosti press release that has since been retracted. Basically, <i>it is not known</i> currently where Phobos-Grunt exactly reentered. Yet the south Pacific indeed has the best papers. @ Phil: All USSTRATCOM has released so far, is the brief text: <i> "Object Decayed Inside Predicted Window" </i> ....nothing more than that. That presumably refers to their previous TIP which mentioned a predicted window between 16:59 - 17:47 UT. While the southern Pacific leading up to the coast of Chile is within the later part of that window, 16:59-17:47 UT is still representing an enormous swath of the earth. The problem is, that neither the Russians nor the US has much in terms of tracking facilities in those southern Ocean areas. They are "blind" there. @ 24. Messier Tidy Upper:
The BBC apparently bases this on a Ria-Novosti press release that has since been retracted.

Basically, it is not known currently where Phobos-Grunt exactly reentered. Yet the south Pacific indeed has the best papers.

@ Phil:

All USSTRATCOM has released so far, is the brief text: “Object Decayed Inside Predicted Window” ….nothing more than that.

That presumably refers to their previous TIP which mentioned a predicted window between 16:59 – 17:47 UT.

While the southern Pacific leading up to the coast of Chile is within the later part of that window, 16:59-17:47 UT is still representing an enormous swath of the earth.

The problem is, that neither the Russians nor the US has much in terms of tracking facilities in those southern Ocean areas. They are “blind” there.

]]> By: puppygod http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467804 puppygod Mon, 16 Jan 2012 08:49:56 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467804 re: self-destruct As stated above, that idea was considered and, mostly, it's not really viable. Though personally I think that in some cases of especially large hardware (space station size) it might be reasonable to install several non-explosive (thermite maybe?) charges in key structural points to disassemble it during re-entry. Reasoning being that multiple, one-ton or so objects would lose more energy in atmosphere than single, multi-ton object moving at several km/s. On the other hand, there is problem with tracking multiple objects with erratic trajectories and spreading damage over larger area. Not to mention, that such system means more potential points of failure, so... Well, the bottom line is that self destruction in some 99% of cases is bad idea, and even when it isn't, the advantage is not necessarily obvious. re: self-destruct
As stated above, that idea was considered and, mostly, it’s not really viable. Though personally I think that in some cases of especially large hardware (space station size) it might be reasonable to install several non-explosive (thermite maybe?) charges in key structural points to disassemble it during re-entry. Reasoning being that multiple, one-ton or so objects would lose more energy in atmosphere than single, multi-ton object moving at several km/s. On the other hand, there is problem with tracking multiple objects with erratic trajectories and spreading damage over larger area. Not to mention, that such system means more potential points of failure, so… Well, the bottom line is that self destruction in some 99% of cases is bad idea, and even when it isn’t, the advantage is not necessarily obvious.

]]> By: Messier Tidy Upper http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467791 Messier Tidy Upper Mon, 16 Jan 2012 06:55:12 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467791 <blockquote><i>Update 2 (18:40 UTC): According to the US Strategic Command, Phobos-Grunt re-entered over the Pacific ocean, not far west of Chile. This is unconfirmed, but STRATCOM is usually quite reliable. As I write this, I'm pretty sure the spacecraft is down, and hopefully we'll know more about where it came down in the next few hours.</i></blockquote> Yep. BBC World News online says <i>(link attached to my name here)</i> that <i>Phobos-Grunt</i> has fallen into the ocean about 1,000 km west of Chile. Although I guess they may be taking that from STRATCOM too, but anyhow. My condolences to all those involved in the mission. Vale <i>Phobos-Grunt</i>. :-(

Update 2 (18:40 UTC): According to the US Strategic Command, Phobos-Grunt re-entered over the Pacific ocean, not far west of Chile. This is unconfirmed, but STRATCOM is usually quite reliable. As I write this, I’m pretty sure the spacecraft is down, and hopefully we’ll know more about where it came down in the next few hours.

Yep. BBC World News online says (link attached to my name here) that Phobos-Grunt has fallen into the ocean about 1,000 km west of Chile. Although I guess they may be taking that from STRATCOM too, but anyhow.

My condolences to all those involved in the mission. Vale Phobos-Grunt. :-(

]]> By: Wzrd1 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467739 Wzrd1 Mon, 16 Jan 2012 02:12:17 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467739 @#7, Rexerkik, so, what is your suggestion for self-destruction? Explosives, which would, as was mentioned above, spread debris all over low Earth orbit, damaging or destroying anything in their path, creating more junk? A nuclear warhead, to fry anything in orbit that passes the charged particles whipping back and forth for at least a decade, following magnetic field lines? Fire the booster to deorbit? The booster that didn't fire to leave Earth orbit? The ONLY practical thing to do is what was done, watch in horror as a highly valuable project is incinerated (mostly) when it reenters the Earth's atmosphere. And it's a crying shame too, it WAS a worthwhile experiment. I hope that Russia manages to fund a replacement and successfully launches it. @#7, Rexerkik, so, what is your suggestion for self-destruction? Explosives, which would, as was mentioned above, spread debris all over low Earth orbit, damaging or destroying anything in their path, creating more junk?
A nuclear warhead, to fry anything in orbit that passes the charged particles whipping back and forth for at least a decade, following magnetic field lines?
Fire the booster to deorbit? The booster that didn’t fire to leave Earth orbit?
The ONLY practical thing to do is what was done, watch in horror as a highly valuable project is incinerated (mostly) when it reenters the Earth’s atmosphere.
And it’s a crying shame too, it WAS a worthwhile experiment. I hope that Russia manages to fund a replacement and successfully launches it.

]]> By: Chris http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467693 Chris Sun, 15 Jan 2012 21:35:53 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467693 @21 Blargh Well it would have been nice to get some photos of the burn up. We've had 3 satellites burn up recently and no one got any pictures. Who among us wouldn't love having a piece of space land in our backyard? And if I have to go, getting vaporized by a falling piece of space junk is the way I'd prefer. @21 Blargh
Well it would have been nice to get some photos of the burn up. We’ve had 3 satellites burn up recently and no one got any pictures. Who among us wouldn’t love having a piece of space land in our backyard? And if I have to go, getting vaporized by a falling piece of space junk is the way I’d prefer.

]]> By: Blargh http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467662 Blargh Sun, 15 Jan 2012 20:52:10 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467662 Chris: ... unfortunately? You wanted it to hit somewhere populated? :o Pete Jackson: well, it isn't a cost issue. They'd love to have world-wide tracking and comms. It's a political issue. One traditionally solved by colonization (a complete bust in their case) or strong-arming (in which their only real clout is with their close neighbors, which doesn't help with reaching world-wide coverage)... Chris: … unfortunately? You wanted it to hit somewhere populated? :o

Pete Jackson: well, it isn’t a cost issue. They’d love to have world-wide tracking and comms. It’s a political issue. One traditionally solved by colonization (a complete bust in their case) or strong-arming (in which their only real clout is with their close neighbors, which doesn’t help with reaching world-wide coverage)…

]]> By: Andres Minas http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467651 Andres Minas Sun, 15 Jan 2012 19:24:19 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467651 My crystal ball says it will hit the Philippine Deep, 230 km NE of Babuyan islands. My crystal ball says it will hit the Philippine Deep, 230 km NE of Babuyan islands.

]]> By: KC http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467646 KC Sun, 15 Jan 2012 18:56:49 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467646 "Have you ever considered to request self-destructive programmes in all space connected equipment just for the case of failure? " Of course its been considered - but you fail to consider the consequence of exploding a large 13-ton spacecraft. It would certainly contribute to space junk which could kill astronauts in orbit and destroy other working spacecraft. Or it might send 13 tons of junk careening into the atmosphere and onto a city. Its just not that simple... “Have you ever considered to request self-destructive programmes in all space connected equipment just for the case of failure? ”

Of course its been considered – but you fail to consider the consequence of exploding a large 13-ton spacecraft. It would certainly contribute to space junk which could kill astronauts in orbit and destroy other working spacecraft. Or it might send 13 tons of junk careening into the atmosphere and onto a city.

Its just not that simple…

]]> By: Pete Jackson http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467640 Pete Jackson Sun, 15 Jan 2012 18:33:17 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467640 It is obvious that if Russia (and any other nations) want to have a serious space program, they need to invest in world-wide tracking and communication facilities. The cost of this is trivial compared to the cost of a space program. They could contract to have facilities built at existing installations such as Parkes in Australia, and/or support countries more allied to Russia such as Cuba or Venezuela to build new facilities. It is obvious that if Russia (and any other nations) want to have a serious space program, they need to invest in world-wide tracking and communication facilities. The cost of this is trivial compared to the cost of a space program. They could contract to have facilities built at existing installations such as Parkes in Australia, and/or support countries more allied to Russia such as Cuba or Venezuela to build new facilities.

]]> By: Mike Saunders http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467631 Mike Saunders Sun, 15 Jan 2012 18:02:12 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467631 They want people in Spain to look for it, but that seems exceedingly over optimistic. They want people in Spain to look for it, but that seems exceedingly over optimistic.

]]> By: Chris http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467629 Chris Sun, 15 Jan 2012 17:53:22 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467629 Unfortunately seems to have crashed in the ocean Unfortunately seems to have crashed in the ocean

]]> By: Mike Saunders http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467607 Mike Saunders Sun, 15 Jan 2012 17:24:13 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467607 Both p-g and the satellite tracking website crash today... Both p-g and the satellite tracking website crash today…

]]> By: Doomed Space Probe of the Day - TDW Geeks http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467606 Doomed Space Probe of the Day - TDW Geeks Sun, 15 Jan 2012 17:18:45 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467606 [...] 13-ton craft is due to reenter our atmosphere today, and nobody was certain where it was going to land. The Russian space agency [...] [...] 13-ton craft is due to reenter our atmosphere today, and nobody was certain where it was going to land. The Russian space agency [...]

]]> By: Chris http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467605 Chris Sun, 15 Jan 2012 17:18:20 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467605 Coming down in 30 minutes Coming down in 30 minutes

]]> By: Mike Saunders http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467603 Mike Saunders Sun, 15 Jan 2012 17:11:38 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467603 Even twitter is too slow for this... When the astronomers told everyone at Jeju island to look up, it was already long gone... Looks like its home will be the Pacific. Statistics wins again! Flying over Guam soon... Even twitter is too slow for this… When the astronomers told everyone at Jeju island to look up, it was already long gone…

Looks like its home will be the Pacific. Statistics wins again!

Flying over Guam soon…

]]> By: Mike Saunders http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467602 Mike Saunders Sun, 15 Jan 2012 17:09:09 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467602 Bisecting Jeju island now! Jeju island is a tropical resort island in South Korea. Bisecting Jeju island now! Jeju island is a tropical resort island in South Korea.

]]> By: Mike Saunders http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467601 Mike Saunders Sun, 15 Jan 2012 17:06:23 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467601 It is re-entering over Mongolia, is the latest reports. Should be interesting! Woops, nevermind! over the china sea now... It is re-entering over Mongolia, is the latest reports. Should be interesting!

Woops, nevermind! over the china sea now…

]]> By: Chris http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467598 Chris Sun, 15 Jan 2012 16:48:43 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467598 Darn, I was hoping to see it burn up over my house. Amazing, big news story and not one mention on the CNN homepage. Darn, I was hoping to see it burn up over my house.

Amazing, big news story and not one mention on the CNN homepage.

]]> By: VinceRN http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467594 VinceRN Sun, 15 Jan 2012 16:35:38 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467594 It would have been such a cool mission. At the Russians are ttrying. It would have been such a cool mission. At the Russians are ttrying.

]]> By: Rexerkik http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467589 Rexerkik Sun, 15 Jan 2012 16:00:00 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467589 Have you ever considered to request self-destructive programmes in all space connected equipment just for the case of failure? Wouldnt ist show the responsibility of science and scientists in a good and remarkable way? Some kind of "science governance"? Of course, driving cars or flying airplanes is much more dangerous. But, it might be good that scientists show that they are concerned, and not just to say that if somebody is hit, it is just bad (statistical) luck. Have you ever considered to request self-destructive programmes in all space connected equipment just for the case of failure? Wouldnt ist show the responsibility of science and scientists in a good and remarkable way? Some kind of “science governance”? Of course, driving cars or flying airplanes is much more dangerous. But, it might be good that scientists show that they are concerned, and not just to say that if somebody is hit, it is just bad (statistical) luck.

]]> By: Valtra http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467587 Valtra Sun, 15 Jan 2012 15:52:53 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467587 Here are the predictions from Roscosmos, complete with ground tracks : http://www.federalspace.ru/main.php?id=2&nid=18564&lang=ru Here are the predictions from Roscosmos, complete with ground tracks :
http://www.federalspace.ru/main.php?id=2&nid=18564&lang=ru

]]> By: Bob F. http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/01/15/phobos-grunt-to-come-down-today/comment-page-1/#comment-467578 Bob F. Sun, 15 Jan 2012 15:23:53 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/?p=43117#comment-467578 The latest report is that it won't hit North America. So I can remove my hard hat. And my tinfoil hat, also. The latest report is that it won’t hit North America. So I can remove my hard hat. And my tinfoil hat, also.

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