Yes, MTU, I am aware that we’ve had a double dip La Nina in the last year and half. The current La Nina has peaked and the climate models predict it will return to ENSO-neutral conditions by May.

And that’s as far as they can predict with some reliability. After May, the ensemble of climate models looks like a jumbled mess, or a spaghetti graph. We don’t know, for example, whether by next year this time we’ll be in El Nino, La Nina or ENSO neutral conditions.

(WUWT has a reference page for ENSO which has all the latest graphs and figures. The graph I’m talking about is “NINO 3.4 Ensemble Forecast” the second one from the top here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/enso/)

Although climate models used for ENSO cannot reliably forecast conditions 12 months ahead (or even 6 months ahead), in terms of probability alone, a triple dip La Nina is less likely than a return to El Nino.

We are however in the so-called negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is a pattern similar to ENSO but works on multi-decadal scale. When the PDO is in warm (positive) phase, El Ninos are stronger and more frequent than La Ninas. When the PDO is in cool (negative) phase, the reverse happens.

I don’t agree that cool and wet weather for five years in a row will prove either global warming or global cooling. Five years of similar weather would not necessarily signal a permanent regime change for it could well be a multi-decadal natural variation. After a decade of below average rainfall in Australia, many people claimed that drought was now the new norm in this continent in a globally warming world. That’s why those (now useless) desalination plants were built.

BTW, according to the Bureau of Meteorology, the two years from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2011 was the second wettest two years in a row on record in Australia (1973/74 have the highest rainfall figures). If we get another wet and cool 2012, or a triple dip La Nina, perhaps then the CAGW (with all its predictions of permanent regime shifts) will be out, and the natural fluctuations of PDO will be in as the major driver of climate.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs38.pdf

See :

http://www.skepticalscience.com/December-2009-record-cold-spells.htm

There is also this rational explanation for why the European climate has had a few unusally cool winters :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_lYbp2zxVg&list=PL029130BFDC78FA33&index=21&feature=plpp_video

@20. sHx :

Here in the eastern half of Australia, we are having another year without a summer. Sydney has been cloudy and rainy almost every day. Since the beginning of the summer, we have had only a few warm and sunny spells. Floods are again causing havoc, though fortunately with fewer loss of life. According to climate scientists, rain and floods was exactly what climate models predicted.

But Adelaide, here in South Australia where I live, has had one of its hottest starts to the New Year ever this year and had quite a heatwave a week or so ago. Plus you’re forgetting that last year – and the start of this year – have been affected by the La Nina*-ENSO climate pattern. With 2011 the hottest La Nina year on record. See :

http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2011/1129/Climate-change-2011-temperatures-the-hottest-ever-during-La-Nina

Among other places.

If it stays as cool and wet for say *five* years in a row, if we don’t have any more El Nino years that driver global abverage tenmperature sto new heights then I will concede you have a point.

But *one* regional summer, even two that are somewhat cooler than average are just noise especially when youlook at teh bigger global picture and teh longer term one time~wise. The last decades have been the hottest on record when Co2 levels are at their highest on record. Co-incidence?

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* Click on my name to see NASA discussing the La Nina phenomenon.

Yes, I’ve lived here 30 years, and it’s like a time warp because with the constant sameness, there doesn’t seem to be a lot to distingish one time interval from another. But I really love the sun. I read that Florida isn’t the sunniest 10 places, I guess Yuma, arizona is number one in annual sun hours. The humidity here punctuates the days mainly in afternoon with thunderstorms.

I’ve been through one tropical storm/ hurricane after another. They are spooky and cause real human suffering.

Having said that, I guess hurricanes, to which Florida is susceptible IIUC, are the complete opposite of boring.

Keep up the good work!

Even BBC london weathermen have been complaining about the cold .

Well, to be fair, complaining about the weather is what it means to be British.

It’s always too hot, too cold, too wet, too dry, too snowy, too cloudy, too sunny, too windy or too still here.

My point is that claims like the one you made here are counter-productive because they are so easily countered. I live in a place that usually gets a lot of snow in the winter, but we are having a very mild winter so far. One season does not climate make! Pretending one storm or one season is good evidence (either way) does a true disservice.

It is connected to colorado’s snow, as it was ridging big time in the east and up to Iceland, it caused the snow in the west and a storm in california on the other side. Europe also had a similar weird event this week with a siberian cP airmass penetrating down to Tenerife and pumping feet of snow in the Adriatic mountains and bitter cold northeast of that. Even BBC london weathermen have been complaining about the cold .