Apparently, no:

ATK ‘moving on’ after Liberty commercial proposal loss.
http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1209/07liberty/

The ESA if they wanted their own manned space flight system could get it quickly by using the Ariane 5 core stage alone with the addition of a second Vulcain engine, capable of carrying a Dragon-sized capsule to orbit.
Even the Dragon is larger than it needs to be just to LEO. If you made a capsule half its size to carry just three passengers, then by cutting the size of the Ariane 5 core to half-size you could loft the half-size capsule to orbit on just a single Vulcain engine.

Bob Clark

None of the competitors will be able to compete with Liberties payload capability. As far as the LAS, that can be done and don’t forget the Ariane 5 is between the SLB and the crew module. NASA SSL will use 2 ATK Solid Boosters and have confidence in the sytem.

As far as the old dinosaurs, USA, United Space Alliance has a pretty good track record..100%.
So the old dinosaurs I guess can be called old because there has not been any new. It will come down to cost and payload. All the so called new competitors are using very old technology and RP1 as fuel. The Atlas V uses an RD180 Russian designed engine… Only the Delta IV use LO and LH engines in the main stage.

Judge by the data, not wild opinions,

“I’m sorry to say it, but this is not at all a credible effort to improve access to space… it’s a transparent attempt to keep the Constellation pork flowing by different means, to bridge the gap until SLS (aka the Rocket To Nowhere) supposedly becomes operational.

I’ll add that nearly all the press releases and public announcements about Liberty have come solely from ATK, while there has been conspicuous silence on the part of their European “partners.”"

Astrium is doing just fine selling Ariane 5s; any additional units are just gravy. Since the relevant people are mulling “Ariane 6,” Astrium may be in a weird position or two right now on hardware sales, or at least disclosure of such.

And if you think asteroids are “Nowhere,” some billionaires as well as NASA’s HEO office will keep right on working, thank you very much. There are legitimate complaints to be had about the SLS, but a “slur” nickname ain’t one of ‘em.

“In any case one has to ask themselves why NASA would spend any money on a reboot of the failed Ares I concept with a foreign upper stage, instead of…”

Meh. If ATK finds a way to actually make it work, then it works. That’s the point of competitive technologies: the winning competitor may not look like you expect at the outset, and that should be OK. The Model T was no looker, nor much of a performer, even by the standards of that time.

Oh, and it gets weirder: this rocket, even if it never flies once, still has value as a “grey knight.” Yeah, life is funny… not like you’d expect.

“By contracting with multiple companies, NASA doesn’t force a company to try to do something it couldn’t. NASA could launch with SpaceX one launch, and then turn around and use ATK for the next launch a month later, while SpaceX is still sorting out and readying for their next launch.”

You’re forgetting that all these companies are chasing the same business. One company getting a launch necessarily means the rest aren’t, and one or more will go out of business. Sure, Bigelow wants to buy rides too, but that still won’t keep all of these entrants above water.

You’re also forgetting about economies of scale. If three companies are competing at the scale of individual flights, then by definition one “winner” company could instead be launching three times as often. This is partly why Soyuz, Proton, etc. are competitive rockets. They launch often enough to reap scaling effects, enough to counter some inferior design choices.

“I strongly dislike the SRB design. That’s also why I didn’t like the Ares rockets. SRBs are far more dangerous than a liquid fuel motor, since the latter can be shut off. A SRB keeps on burning as long as there is propellant – there’s no way to stop it.

Another point is that a five-segmented booster has not been tested in flight, yet.”

No. The Air Force has solids it can shut down at will. It’s more complicated than a “plain old” solid, but they fly regularly. I’ve even heard of throttleable solid tests. Again, more involved, but they did indeed throttle. Ain’t progress grand?

Also, the five-segment booster flew just fine, as UmTutSut (#13) pointed out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqRqpG5G5Iw&feature=related

There are plenty of legitimate complaints about the SRB and its derivatives, but “has not been tested in flight, yet” ain’t one of ‘em.

““Will ATK beat everyone…”

No. Because they and their partners are old, non-agile space dinosaurs. They don’t have it in their DNA to beat anyone without a 4x budget overrun and a Congressional Sugar Daddy.”

ATK’s multiple commercial divisions would beg to differ. If the project selects managers from such divisions, I’d give them a chance. If they select their managers based on “tradition,” then yes, I’d say you’re right.

Oh, and this is without considering the Ariane 5′s track record in the comsat market. Not as good as, say, Ariane 3, but that still answers the question at hand, doesn’t it?

“The main reason this doesn’t pass the smell test – SpaceX. At current SpaceX pricing the Chinese can’t compete, how in the world will Liberty?”

No, SpaceX’s *projected* pricing for a paper rocket beats the Chinese. If you’re familiar with SpaceX’s history, you’ll remember them failing to meet their price projections, just like everyone else. In particular, the Falcon 9 Heavy requires a fairly basic redesign of the engine- a redesign in the expensive direction, not the cheap direction.

“Their schedule says 2015, but they haven’t built anything yet? Given that they’ll have the same hurdles to jump getting man-rated that SpaceX is going through, I see no reason why they should do it more quickly.

My money is still on the horse that is already out of the gate and headed down the back straight, not the horse that’s still on it’s way to the starting gate.”

No. Three entities (NASA, LockMart/ATK, and Bigelow) have worked on lightweight Orion capsules. Depending on what aspects you’re considering, NASA arguably got the farthest along, Bigelow the least far.

You’re also forgetting that both the SRB and Ariane 5 were man-rated at some point- understandable, but still forgotten.