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The Los Angeles Times today reported on the increased amounts of NF3 in the atmosphere since flat panel televisions have risen in popularity.

A synthetic chemical widely used in the manufacture of computers and flat-screen televisions is a potent greenhouse gas, with 17,000 times the global warming effect of carbon dioxide, but its measure in the atmosphere has never been taken, nor is it regulated by international treaty,” the LA Times writes of NF3. The story is based on a report by professors Michael J. Prather and Juno Hsu at the University of California, Irvine in the journal GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS: “Nitrogen trifluoride (NF₃) can be called the missing greenhouse gas: It is a synthetic chemical produced in industrial quantities; it is not included in the Kyoto basket of greenhouse gases or in national reporting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); and there are no observations documenting its atmospheric abundance. Current publications report a long lifetime of 740 yr and a global warming potential (GWP), which in the Kyoto basket is second only to SF₆. We re-examine the atmospheric chemistry of NF₃ and calculate a shorter lifetime of 550 yr, but still far beyond any societal time frames. With 2008 production equivalent to 67 million metric tons of CO₂, NF₃ has a potential greenhouse impact larger than that of the industrialized nations’ emissions of PFCs or SF₆, or even that of the world’s largest coal-fired power plants. If released, annual production would increase the lower atmospheric abundance by 0.4 ppt, and it is urgent to document NF₃ emissions through atmospheric observations.”

Some are already questioning the interpretation of the data, however: How much NF3 can there really be?  (Another way to ask this is: How many flat panel displays can there really be?)

I for one wonder about the idea that NF3 is the missing greenhouse gas. After all, no one has ever figured out just how the so-called major greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, nitrous oxide, and ground level ozone– mix together to create global warming. And there are traces of numerous gases that enter or result from the “greenhouse effect.”

Still, as the LAT story points out, it’s certainly worth tracking NF3, which is something that hasn’t been done. Which again is curious. Why stop tracking NF3 or not include it in climate change policy consideration?

The big point for me here, anyway, is just how inexact the science is of global warming. To be sure, it’ occurring. We have some ideas how — but not the whole picture. Hence, we need more research and more of a concerted effort to mitigate the known causes as well as find out what isn’t known. Meanwhile we shouldn’t rush to judgment (or policy, for that matter). Otherwise we may just have another corn ethanol situation on our hands: a lot of time, money and attention being put into something futile. 

July 9th, 2008 by Thomas Kostigen in air pollution, climate change | 4 comments | RSS feed | Trackback >