Fred and Newt bring significant personal baggage.

What baggage does Fred Thompson bring? The recent slip in Law & Order ratings?

Obama got 70% of the votes cast; 3.5 million voted for him.

That represents 54% of the 6.44 million registered voters, and 36.8% of the approx. 9.5 million eligible to vote.

To the extent that Political Science (ie try to tease something useful out of very small data sets with a constantly varying background) means anything, the evidence of the past has been that the current (ie post1972) nomination process is something of a sham, that the real work happens in the “Invisible Primary” which consists of obtainining the endorsement/support of ward leaders and higher in the party. This seems to be a significantly more important factor than national popularity, popularity amongst party members, money raised, etc.
Everything I see leads me to believe that HC is far ahead on this score.

On the Republican side, amusing as it is to see the party imploding, I cannot see any of the three stooges as being especially popular to ward leaders, so god knows what will happen.

One could argue that the internet changes everything, that whereas in 1996 or whatever the rank and file voted as the ward leaders told them to/suggested they do, now they have enough info to behave differently. Perhaps, although my guess would be that, while this may be true in the future, we aren’t there yet.

As for the election, the most significant driver (from what I can remember)) is the state of the economy at the time of the election (not what is was like average over the last 4 years, or what it looks like it’s headed to). War’s being lost don’t help, though there are few data points. Desire for change (ie switch parties just for the sake of switching) is not insignificant. My guess would be that the perfect storm we’re headed to as housing collapses, trade imbalance is out of control, money is wasted on the military rather than anything more useful, health-care continues to rise, etc, will break before the election, and not early enough before that it could somehow be hidden in time. So my guess (based on the best the limited science of this field has to say, rather than my hopes and dreams) would be that the dem nominee becomes president, and that that nominee will be Ms Clinton.

(VP? I know of no research that tracks that, which means no more than that my knowledge of this subject is very limited. Presumably it will be whoever of Obama and Edwards is perceived as being more likely to pull in the marginal Republican voter. On those grounds, my guess would be that, sorry Obama, it’ll be Edwards not you.)

Does anyone know why he is not running?
Does he think he has little chance?
Does he fear something if he runs?
Or is he just lurking for the right moment? Or he has had enough?

My preference would be a duo of Gore as president and Obama as VP.

Whoever becomes the next president, I’m afraid he/she will inherit a financial and deplomatic mess.