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	<title>Comments on: What I Believe But Cannot Prove</title>
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	<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/</link>
	<description>Random samplings from a universe of ideas.</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2009 00:09:16 -0600</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Science Never Proves Anything &#171; A Blank Slate</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/comment-page-1/#comment-91454</link>
		<dc:creator>Science Never Proves Anything &#171; A Blank Slate</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Aug 2009 23:59:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/#comment-91454</guid>
		<description>[...] a brilliant post (that blew my mind away) Sean Carroll writes about a very wrong way of thinking about science: &#8220;the idea that true and reliable knowledge [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] a brilliant post (that blew my mind away) Sean Carroll writes about a very wrong way of thinking about science: &#8220;the idea that true and reliable knowledge [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Science and Religion are Not Compatible &#124; Cosmic Variance &#124; Discover Magazine</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/comment-page-1/#comment-79954</link>
		<dc:creator>Science and Religion are Not Compatible &#124; Cosmic Variance &#124; Discover Magazine</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Jun 2009 15:24:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/#comment-79954</guid>
		<description>[...] that&#8217;s perfectly correct, but it&#8217;s a dramatic misrepresentation of how science works. Science never proves anything. Science doesn&#8217;t prove that spacetime is curved, or that species evolved according to natural [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] that&#8217;s perfectly correct, but it&#8217;s a dramatic misrepresentation of how science works. Science never proves anything. Science doesn&#8217;t prove that spacetime is curved, or that species evolved according to natural [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Inquiry</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/comment-page-1/#comment-78156</link>
		<dc:creator>Inquiry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Jun 2009 02:33:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/#comment-78156</guid>
		<description>This is something every Atheist should read so that they can realize how much they profoundly misunderstand science as a whole and that they&#039;ve been convicting hypocrisy at best.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is something every Atheist should read so that they can realize how much they profoundly misunderstand science as a whole and that they&#8217;ve been convicting hypocrisy at best.</p>
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		<title>By: arxiv Find: A Realistic Cosmological Model&#8230; &#124; Cosmic Variance &#124; Discover Magazine</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/comment-page-1/#comment-47928</link>
		<dc:creator>arxiv Find: A Realistic Cosmological Model&#8230; &#124; Cosmic Variance &#124; Discover Magazine</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:38:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/#comment-47928</guid>
		<description>[...] supporter&#8217;s can&#8217;t prove that their theory is correct. Which is undeniably true, as science never proves anything; it just accumulates evidence, and in the case of the Big Bang and natural selection, the evidence [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] supporter&#8217;s can&#8217;t prove that their theory is correct. Which is undeniably true, as science never proves anything; it just accumulates evidence, and in the case of the Big Bang and natural selection, the evidence [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Neil B. ?</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/comment-page-1/#comment-27422</link>
		<dc:creator>Neil B. ?</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Sep 2008 23:50:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/#comment-27422</guid>
		<description>No TP, that attitude is &quot;anti-realist&quot;. If you think &quot;things really exist&quot; in some actual configuration, then a brain in a vat is just that, however confused it may be about it&#039;s materially true status. Otherwise you might as well be a post-modernist etc, but you aren&#039;t a physical realist (being able to measure as e.g for quantum issues is a matter of physical principle, and not practical &quot;handicap&quot; as for example the tricked brain in a vat or otherwise.

But the real &quot;brain in a vat&quot; problem may be even worse than the &quot;physical&quot; issue of there being real worlds with actual properties independent of whether any given brain can accurately assess its status or not therein. The big problem comes from the AI notion that all thought (and even experience!) is really a formal calculation process, doable with a Turing machine etc. But if that&#039;s so, then there&#039;s no way to know if you&#039;re even a &quot;real brain&quot; at all (in a vat, or not; regardless in this case) versus just the platonically real existence of the thought process itself as a mathematical model. You can&#039;t explain what the difference would consist of.  Any difference by definition would have to be something beyond the computations, such that strong AI is wrong (which I think it is, so this is not a problem for *me*, just for such believers like spurious great-modern philosopher Dan Dennett.)

There is no way to logically model and validate thoughts of, &quot;Wow, I really exist as/through a brain in a material world.  I&#039;m not just the process either on a computer or even merely a concept&quot; because physical embodiment itself cannot be represented by logical processes.  Only the thoughts themselves can be, and anything that can be thought of &quot;computationally&quot; is just as real as pure mathematical description.  All strong AI type thought is just the information itself, it is a given already as the math describing it (you&#039;ll have to reflect on that to get the point.)

Note that the computations happening &quot;in time&quot; is no way out or can show &quot;realness&quot;, since processes can be mathematically represented as a  &quot;block&quot; (look up &quot;block universe.&quot;)  IOW, this forces the acceptance of modal realism for minds, even if the fullness of physical nature cannot be entirely modeled in math (pace Max Tegmark et al.)

&quot;tyrannogenius&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No TP, that attitude is &#8220;anti-realist&#8221;. If you think &#8220;things really exist&#8221; in some actual configuration, then a brain in a vat is just that, however confused it may be about it&#8217;s materially true status. Otherwise you might as well be a post-modernist etc, but you aren&#8217;t a physical realist (being able to measure as e.g for quantum issues is a matter of physical principle, and not practical &#8220;handicap&#8221; as for example the tricked brain in a vat or otherwise.</p>
<p>But the real &#8220;brain in a vat&#8221; problem may be even worse than the &#8220;physical&#8221; issue of there being real worlds with actual properties independent of whether any given brain can accurately assess its status or not therein. The big problem comes from the AI notion that all thought (and even experience!) is really a formal calculation process, doable with a Turing machine etc. But if that&#8217;s so, then there&#8217;s no way to know if you&#8217;re even a &#8220;real brain&#8221; at all (in a vat, or not; regardless in this case) versus just the platonically real existence of the thought process itself as a mathematical model. You can&#8217;t explain what the difference would consist of.  Any difference by definition would have to be something beyond the computations, such that strong AI is wrong (which I think it is, so this is not a problem for *me*, just for such believers like spurious great-modern philosopher Dan Dennett.)</p>
<p>There is no way to logically model and validate thoughts of, &#8220;Wow, I really exist as/through a brain in a material world.  I&#8217;m not just the process either on a computer or even merely a concept&#8221; because physical embodiment itself cannot be represented by logical processes.  Only the thoughts themselves can be, and anything that can be thought of &#8220;computationally&#8221; is just as real as pure mathematical description.  All strong AI type thought is just the information itself, it is a given already as the math describing it (you&#8217;ll have to reflect on that to get the point.)</p>
<p>Note that the computations happening &#8220;in time&#8221; is no way out or can show &#8220;realness&#8221;, since processes can be mathematically represented as a  &#8220;block&#8221; (look up &#8220;block universe.&#8221;)  IOW, this forces the acceptance of modal realism for minds, even if the fullness of physical nature cannot be entirely modeled in math (pace Max Tegmark et al.)</p>
<p>&#8220;tyrannogenius&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: TP</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/comment-page-1/#comment-27421</link>
		<dc:creator>TP</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Sep 2008 00:42:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/#comment-27421</guid>
		<description>&quot;Although I cannot prove that I am not a brain in a vat, it is unreasonable for me to take the possibility seriously &#8212; I don’t gain anything by it, and it doesn’t help me make sense of the world&quot;. That sort of spoiled a very good piece.

I think a better way to counter such an argument is if I am a brain in vat then the vat is the world for me and it is no less a world than the &quot;true&quot; world. I took this whole brain in a vat idea quite seriously some years ago. Now it just seems a bit ridiculous.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Although I cannot prove that I am not a brain in a vat, it is unreasonable for me to take the possibility seriously &mdash; I don’t gain anything by it, and it doesn’t help me make sense of the world&#8221;. That sort of spoiled a very good piece.</p>
<p>I think a better way to counter such an argument is if I am a brain in vat then the vat is the world for me and it is no less a world than the &#8220;true&#8221; world. I took this whole brain in a vat idea quite seriously some years ago. Now it just seems a bit ridiculous.</p>
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		<title>By: Talking About LHC Safety &#124; Cosmic Variance</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/comment-page-1/#comment-27420</link>
		<dc:creator>Talking About LHC Safety &#124; Cosmic Variance</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Sep 2008 21:47:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/#comment-27420</guid>
		<description>[...] are so low that we have to take the risk. Or, more accurately, we choose to take the risk, because science never proves anything beyond any possible doubt, and we can&#8217;t help but take such improbable risks all the time. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] are so low that we have to take the risk. Or, more accurately, we choose to take the risk, because science never proves anything beyond any possible doubt, and we can&#8217;t help but take such improbable risks all the time. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: TwisMinion</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/comment-page-1/#comment-27419</link>
		<dc:creator>TwisMinion</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Aug 2008 05:59:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/#comment-27419</guid>
		<description>Maybe it could be phrased like this...

What is something you believe but haven’t been able to convince anybody else of?

Or...

What is something you believe that you aren’t quite sure is correct?

If they asked this question to free thinkers they can get all sorts of good answers to the question because true free thinking allows you to stake mental ground, much like staking a claim in the days of the gold rush, without actually assuming that there’s gold in them thar hills.  It’s not just that you want or expect to find the gold there, it’s that you believe it could be there, but have yet to dig...

The issue Sean seems to have is with the word believe... But Sean’s a scientist, and so we forgive and even encourage his dedication to skeptical analysis.

Words mean different things to different people.  The word believe means one thing to a cosmologist, and quite another to a preacher, gambler or five year old on Christmas Eve.  The word theory in science means a concept backed up by many, many individual facts, while in layman’s terms it is equivalent to a best guess. Math is less fuzzy than words, but only because advertisers haven’t figured out how to exploit them properly yet.

Still, even Sean must have reacted to many conversations regarding the difference between human intuition and quantum physics with something to the tune of &quot;I agree with you completely, that makes sense, here’s why we’re wrong...&quot;

-j-</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Maybe it could be phrased like this&#8230;</p>
<p>What is something you believe but haven’t been able to convince anybody else of?</p>
<p>Or&#8230;</p>
<p>What is something you believe that you aren’t quite sure is correct?</p>
<p>If they asked this question to free thinkers they can get all sorts of good answers to the question because true free thinking allows you to stake mental ground, much like staking a claim in the days of the gold rush, without actually assuming that there’s gold in them thar hills.  It’s not just that you want or expect to find the gold there, it’s that you believe it could be there, but have yet to dig&#8230;</p>
<p>The issue Sean seems to have is with the word believe&#8230; But Sean’s a scientist, and so we forgive and even encourage his dedication to skeptical analysis.</p>
<p>Words mean different things to different people.  The word believe means one thing to a cosmologist, and quite another to a preacher, gambler or five year old on Christmas Eve.  The word theory in science means a concept backed up by many, many individual facts, while in layman’s terms it is equivalent to a best guess. Math is less fuzzy than words, but only because advertisers haven’t figured out how to exploit them properly yet.</p>
<p>Still, even Sean must have reacted to many conversations regarding the difference between human intuition and quantum physics with something to the tune of &#8220;I agree with you completely, that makes sense, here’s why we’re wrong&#8230;&#8221;</p>
<p>-j-</p>
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		<title>By: Pure Mathematics is not Science &#171; Pat&#8217;s Daily Grind</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/comment-page-1/#comment-27418</link>
		<dc:creator>Pure Mathematics is not Science &#171; Pat&#8217;s Daily Grind</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Aug 2008 03:50:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/#comment-27418</guid>
		<description>[...] [Edited to add 08-22-2008] - another version of this post over at Cosmic Variance. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] [Edited to add 08-22-2008] &#8211; another version of this post over at Cosmic Variance. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Thomas</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/comment-page-1/#comment-27417</link>
		<dc:creator>Thomas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Nov 2007 17:30:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2007/04/11/what-i-believe-but-cannot-prove/#comment-27417</guid>
		<description>Is it a cognitive dead end to believe as Plato does when he has Socrates say: I think that Euripides may have been right in saying, who knows if life be not death and death life; and that we are very likely dead; (Plato Gorgias, 493a)?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Is it a cognitive dead end to believe as Plato does when he has Socrates say: I think that Euripides may have been right in saying, who knows if life be not death and death life; and that we are very likely dead; (Plato Gorgias, 493a)?</p>
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