Comments on: Prediction Contest Update

By: Prediction Contest Results! | Cosmic Variance | Discover Magazine

Prediction Contest Results! | Cosmic Variance | Discover Magazine — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 20:06:02 +0000

[...] still seems to be problematic, but patience is thin and it’s time to declare a winner! Visit here to be reminded of who had staked out which bits of territory. Here are the vote totals as of [...]

By: Sean

Sean — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 23:02:46 +0000

I want to make sure the numbers have settled down, then we will certify a winner!

By: Freiddie

Freiddie — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 22:36:33 +0000

Sean, could you make a post about who won?

By: Joshua Zucker

Joshua Zucker — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 19:45:14 +0000

When I saw at NPR that
Barack Obama
65,125,060
52.6%

I thought that meant I won.

But then I saw
John McCain
57,178,056
46.1%

and realized that f is not Obama’s vote percent, but Obama / (Obama + McCain), so I get .5325 for f, not .526, so my guess of 52.67% wasn’t so good after all.

Looks like Elliot is the winner.

By: Branedy

Branedy — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 12:42:21 +0000

Since humans, and especially humans in an election year could at best be typified as the ultimate analog random number generator, any permutations of purely mathematical could be possible. In other words, you are guessing with style.

By: Allyson

Allyson — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 19:35:14 +0000

I still call no fair.

By: Sean

Sean — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 18:08:57 +0000

Typically, no — we just go to more significant figures.

By: Brian Mingus

Brian Mingus — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 18:04:21 +0000

Given wqz’s analysis of the data, suppose the actual number lies on one of the boundary cases, such as the upper end of Xenophage and the lower end of Trevor’s guesses. Does that mean both win?

By: wqz

wqz — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 22:20:50 +0000

Without homung,

There are 68 predications in total. 28 predications have been eliminated. 40 predications are still alive.

The following people have been eliminated: Alejandro, Asad, Brian Mingus, Erik, Eugene, Frege, Ian Paul Freeley, Jacob, Jennifer Ouellette, JoeB, Karl, Ktoaster, Lawrence B. Crowell, Matt, Matt (the real one), Mauro Guerra, Michael Bacon, Mike, Ryan, Sean, charly, cope, graviton383, greg, kmeson, lemuel pitkin, sadguy, and wds.

The following people still have a chance of winning. (Their names are following the winnig numbers.)

( 0.00000, 38.00361): Colin M
( 38.00361, 41.47961): Sili
( 41.47961, 43.77991): Vibi
( 43.77991, 45.25916): Ross Presser
( 45.25916, 46.89863): I can’t believe we voted no to Lisbon
( 46.89863, 47.09716): JCF
( 47.09716, 48.50953): Kurt
( 48.50953, 48.62496): zw
( 48.62496, 48.63903): Thomas W. Swidarski, CEO of Diebold
( 48.63903, 49.86385): zw
( 49.86385, 49.99529): Ellipsis
( 49.99529, 50.00271): mts
( 50.00271, 50.03469): Ellipsis
( 50.03469, 50.05152): AGray
( 50.05152, 50.20331): John Kemeny
( 50.20331, 50.38336): Nik
( 50.38336, 50.58681): John Kemeny
( 50.58681, 51.05876): Joshua
( 51.05876, 51.34059): cryptographically anonymous
( 51.34059, 51.81092): Ijon Tichy
( 51.81092, 51.94603): anonymous 37
( 51.94603, 52.44417): Randall Shane
( 52.44417, 52.78452): Joshua Zucker
( 52.78452, 52.81689): Fermi-Walker Public Transport
( 52.81689, 53.10869): Tim
( 53.10869, 53.32282): Elliot
( 53.32282, 53.47922): Anonymous Snowoboarder
( 53.47922, 53.74739): Gabe
( 53.74739, 53.78569): joulesm
( 53.78569, 54.63681): Evan
( 54.63681, 55.07141): Tad
( 55.07141, 55.59628): BlackGriffen
( 55.59628, 56.70126): Philip
( 56.70126, 56.78486): A Curious Mind
( 56.78486, 57.69133): hegemon359
( 57.69133, 57.85802): A Curious Mind
( 57.85802, 58.58114): macho
( 58.58114, 59.61879): billyjohnson
( 59.61879, 61.01964): Zach
( 61.01964, 63.90354): Norman Costa
( 63.90354, 65.66965): Xenophage
( 65.66965, 67.81627): Count Iblis
( 67.81627, 70.29544): twaters
( 70.29544, 78.04463): Count Iblis
( 78.04463, 81.45253): Xenophage
( 81.45253, 100.00000): Trevor

By: Sean

Sean — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 21:02:14 +0000

Thanks for the catch, wqz. I didn’t forget homung’s prediction; sadly, it came after the deadline, so fairness dictates that it can’t be included.

I’m surprised that so many people are still theoretically in it, my eyeball estimate was significantly off.