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	<title>Comments on: Epsilon Away from Wipeout</title>
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	<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/</link>
	<description>Random samplings from a universe of ideas.</description>
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		<title>By: Neil B. ?</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/comment-page-1/#comment-43233</link>
		<dc:creator>Neil B. ?</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Sep 2008 23:45:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/#comment-43233</guid>
		<description>Well, it seems a wipeout was narrowly averted (so far), at least &quot;according to the market&quot; - see, in this economy the stock market is &quot;the&quot; market.  Why? Because &quot;we the people&quot; had the burden placed on our long-suffering shoulders, that&#039;s why.  As for what we should get in return, well here is my post from a thread in Brad DeLong&#039;s literate and fascinating blog:

&lt;i&gt;Since the public is basically bailing out &quot;the financial system&quot;, then: the public should, in some sense and to a substantial extent, be given &quot;ownership&quot; of the financial system. I don&#039;t mean just ordinary individualized market participation (which they already have, however mangled) or just &quot;the government&quot; acting as a government (especially considering that the G. is largely, effectively owned by the same sort it is bailing out the most.) I mean literally &quot;as&quot; the public, in a communal effective way similar to what being in a genuinely employee-owned company is like. Reflect on that and hash out what it should consist of in particular, the thrust of it cannot morally be denied. The people should demand it, they will if they appreciate what happened to them and respect their interests.&lt;/i&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, it seems a wipeout was narrowly averted (so far), at least &#8220;according to the market&#8221; &#8211; see, in this economy the stock market is &#8220;the&#8221; market.  Why? Because &#8220;we the people&#8221; had the burden placed on our long-suffering shoulders, that&#8217;s why.  As for what we should get in return, well here is my post from a thread in Brad DeLong&#8217;s literate and fascinating blog:</p>
<p><i>Since the public is basically bailing out &#8220;the financial system&#8221;, then: the public should, in some sense and to a substantial extent, be given &#8220;ownership&#8221; of the financial system. I don&#8217;t mean just ordinary individualized market participation (which they already have, however mangled) or just &#8220;the government&#8221; acting as a government (especially considering that the G. is largely, effectively owned by the same sort it is bailing out the most.) I mean literally &#8220;as&#8221; the public, in a communal effective way similar to what being in a genuinely employee-owned company is like. Reflect on that and hash out what it should consist of in particular, the thrust of it cannot morally be denied. The people should demand it, they will if they appreciate what happened to them and respect their interests.</i></p>
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		<title>By: John Merryman</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/comment-page-1/#comment-43223</link>
		<dc:creator>John Merryman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Sep 2008 23:46:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/#comment-43223</guid>
		<description>Chris,

 The more accurate biological example is of a population depleting its resource base and crashing, which is a matter of measured inevitability, rather than potential failure. The paper bubble was being inflated and each tear was papered over with ever thinner paper. It wasn&#039;t a change in circumstance, but reaching the limits of the circumstance.

 Neil,

 The irony is delicious. After years of privatizing every possible public asset in the name of &quot;greater efficiency,&quot; while squeezing out every drop of profitability, the &quot;free markets&quot; rejoice when the mess is nationalized. Fear and greed are all that really matters.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Chris,</p>
<p> The more accurate biological example is of a population depleting its resource base and crashing, which is a matter of measured inevitability, rather than potential failure. The paper bubble was being inflated and each tear was papered over with ever thinner paper. It wasn&#8217;t a change in circumstance, but reaching the limits of the circumstance.</p>
<p> Neil,</p>
<p> The irony is delicious. After years of privatizing every possible public asset in the name of &#8220;greater efficiency,&#8221; while squeezing out every drop of profitability, the &#8220;free markets&#8221; rejoice when the mess is nationalized. Fear and greed are all that really matters.</p>
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		<title>By: Chris W.</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/comment-page-1/#comment-43224</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris W.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Sep 2008 23:04:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/#comment-43224</guid>
		<description>From a reader review of Richard Bookstaber&#039;s &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.amazon.com/Demon-Our-Own-Design-Innovation/dp/0471227277/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;A Demon of Our Own Design&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;:

&lt;blockquote&gt;Another serious problem is Wall Street&#039;s deeply ingrained tendency to push the envelope. (Richard Lowenstein put it exceptionally well in his book &lt;em&gt;Origins of the Crash&lt;/em&gt;: &quot;Finance has its own Peter Principle, by which a successful model will be adapted to progressively riskier causes until it fails.&quot;)

In this habit of fighting for every inch of profit, Wall Street is like a self-evolving animal overquick to embrace the particulars of its immediate environment. The more precisely an animal is attuned to a particular &quot;fitness landscape,&quot; the better that animal can thrive... in the short term at least, as long as everything stays just so. To be exquisitely adapted (as opposed to robustly adapted) is to be vulnerable to the slightest change.

Thus when the fitness landscape &lt;em&gt;does&lt;/em&gt; change---as it inevitably will---the heavily specialized competitors tend to get crushed (if not go extinct). If a strategy-gone-sour broadsides a large enough group of market participants, the entire financial ecosystem can be thrown into turmoil. When the turmoil from this upheaval spills into the broader economy, wreaking havoc in its wake, the &quot;demon&quot; spoken of in the book&#039;s title is unleashed. (As this reviewer interprets it anyway.)&lt;/blockquote&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From a reader review of Richard Bookstaber&#8217;s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Demon-Our-Own-Design-Innovation/dp/0471227277/" rel="nofollow"><em>A Demon of Our Own Design</em></a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Another serious problem is Wall Street&#8217;s deeply ingrained tendency to push the envelope. (Richard Lowenstein put it exceptionally well in his book <em>Origins of the Crash</em>: &#8220;Finance has its own Peter Principle, by which a successful model will be adapted to progressively riskier causes until it fails.&#8221;)</p>
<p>In this habit of fighting for every inch of profit, Wall Street is like a self-evolving animal overquick to embrace the particulars of its immediate environment. The more precisely an animal is attuned to a particular &#8220;fitness landscape,&#8221; the better that animal can thrive&#8230; in the short term at least, as long as everything stays just so. To be exquisitely adapted (as opposed to robustly adapted) is to be vulnerable to the slightest change.</p>
<p>Thus when the fitness landscape <em>does</em> change&#8212;as it inevitably will&#8212;the heavily specialized competitors tend to get crushed (if not go extinct). If a strategy-gone-sour broadsides a large enough group of market participants, the entire financial ecosystem can be thrown into turmoil. When the turmoil from this upheaval spills into the broader economy, wreaking havoc in its wake, the &#8220;demon&#8221; spoken of in the book&#8217;s title is unleashed. (As this reviewer interprets it anyway.)</p></blockquote>
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		<title>By: daisyrose</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/comment-page-1/#comment-43225</link>
		<dc:creator>daisyrose</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Sep 2008 23:02:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/#comment-43225</guid>
		<description>Everything is so  complicated because no one knows what securities  they really hold i-  derivatives =  toxic waste?  -   Trading  *models*  - developed by QUANTS -  Same kind of over achieving - parent pleasing -  non creative types.  They hail from the same schools - they hang out together. make the same trades -   they are arrogant - self centered - and they dont give a damn about anyone but them selves.  No big Picture idea - they make 10$  someone else loses 20 - no problem!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Everything is so  complicated because no one knows what securities  they really hold i-  derivatives =  toxic waste?  &#8211;   Trading  *models*  &#8211; developed by QUANTS &#8211;  Same kind of over achieving &#8211; parent pleasing &#8211;  non creative types.  They hail from the same schools &#8211; they hang out together. make the same trades &#8211;   they are arrogant &#8211; self centered &#8211; and they dont give a damn about anyone but them selves.  No big Picture idea &#8211; they make 10$  someone else loses 20 &#8211; no problem!</p>
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		<title>By: Eleanor</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/comment-page-1/#comment-43191</link>
		<dc:creator>Eleanor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Sep 2008 20:40:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/#comment-43191</guid>
		<description>My boss (I work in risk management at an investment bank) has postulated that the crisis of the last few days is due to the LHC. When they switched it on there was some sort of black hole created and we are now living in a hellish parallel universe created by it. :-)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My boss (I work in risk management at an investment bank) has postulated that the crisis of the last few days is due to the LHC. When they switched it on there was some sort of black hole created and we are now living in a hellish parallel universe created by it. <img src='http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: Chris W.</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/comment-page-1/#comment-43232</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris W.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Sep 2008 20:24:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/#comment-43232</guid>
		<description>Indeed. Capitalism has always depended on government to protect it from itself. I guess we&#039;re learning that all over again---the hard way. The only way capitalism could function independently of government would be if it took complete responsibility for its own systemic health and stability. That would require establishing and accepting what amounted to governmental oversight, even if it was embodied in nominally private institutions. (Credulous or corrupt bond rating agencies don&#039;t count.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Indeed. Capitalism has always depended on government to protect it from itself. I guess we&#8217;re learning that all over again&#8212;the hard way. The only way capitalism could function independently of government would be if it took complete responsibility for its own systemic health and stability. That would require establishing and accepting what amounted to governmental oversight, even if it was embodied in nominally private institutions. (Credulous or corrupt bond rating agencies don&#8217;t count.)</p>
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		<title>By: Neil B. ?</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/comment-page-1/#comment-43231</link>
		<dc:creator>Neil B. ?</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Sep 2008 19:52:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/#comment-43231</guid>
		<description>Oh the irony.  Look at http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080918/wall_street.html?.v=44, &quot;Stocks surge on report of entity for bad debt&quot;
September 18, 3:37 pm ET, By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer (was on Drudge literally within a few minutes.)  It is telling and weird, how the stock market, the &quot;nerve center of American capitalism&quot;, goes up and down in rapid swings depending more than anything on whether the government is offering some way to cover for what is happening.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oh the irony.  Look at <a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080918/wall_street.html?.v=44" rel="nofollow">http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080918/wall_street.html?.v=44</a>, &#8220;Stocks surge on report of entity for bad debt&#8221;<br />
September 18, 3:37 pm ET, By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer (was on Drudge literally within a few minutes.)  It is telling and weird, how the stock market, the &#8220;nerve center of American capitalism&#8221;, goes up and down in rapid swings depending more than anything on whether the government is offering some way to cover for what is happening.</p>
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		<title>By: Neil B. ?</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/comment-page-1/#comment-43230</link>
		<dc:creator>Neil B. ?</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Sep 2008 18:17:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/#comment-43230</guid>
		<description>And here is the price we pay for Republican-preferred economic anarchy (imagine, if Social Security had been privatized and invested in the stock market.)  McCain is now paying catchup concern troll:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080916/ap_on_bi_ge/bank_deposits_safety

Federal bank insurance fund dwindling

By MARCY GORDON, AP Business Writer Tue Sep 16, 7:49 PM ET

WASHINGTON - Banks are not the only ones struggling in the growing financial crisis. The fund established to insure their deposits is also feeling the pinch, and the taxpayer may be the lender of last resort.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., whose insurance fund has slipped below the minimum target level set by Congress, could be forced to tap tax dollars through a Treasury Department loan if Washington Mutual Inc., the nation&#039;s largest thrift, or another struggling rival fails, economists and industry analysts said Tuesday.

...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And here is the price we pay for Republican-preferred economic anarchy (imagine, if Social Security had been privatized and invested in the stock market.)  McCain is now paying catchup concern troll:</p>
<p><a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080916/ap_on_bi_ge/bank_deposits_safety" rel="nofollow">http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080916/ap_on_bi_ge/bank_deposits_safety</a></p>
<p>Federal bank insurance fund dwindling</p>
<p>By MARCY GORDON, AP Business Writer Tue Sep 16, 7:49 PM ET</p>
<p>WASHINGTON &#8211; Banks are not the only ones struggling in the growing financial crisis. The fund established to insure their deposits is also feeling the pinch, and the taxpayer may be the lender of last resort.</p>
<p>The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., whose insurance fund has slipped below the minimum target level set by Congress, could be forced to tap tax dollars through a Treasury Department loan if Washington Mutual Inc., the nation&#8217;s largest thrift, or another struggling rival fails, economists and industry analysts said Tuesday.</p>
<p>&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: John Merryman</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/comment-page-1/#comment-43222</link>
		<dc:creator>John Merryman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Sep 2008 10:45:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/#comment-43222</guid>
		<description>Not only is the government going to own a bankrupt banking system, but they seem to be on the hook for a bankrupt insurance system. Of course, that&#039;s where the derivatives market came from in the first place. This will be a very large tail wagging a small dog, given that the derivatives market has grown from 6 trillion in 1990 to 455 trillion today.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not only is the government going to own a bankrupt banking system, but they seem to be on the hook for a bankrupt insurance system. Of course, that&#8217;s where the derivatives market came from in the first place. This will be a very large tail wagging a small dog, given that the derivatives market has grown from 6 trillion in 1990 to 455 trillion today.</p>
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		<title>By: The Subprime Primer &#8212; eightandfive Archive</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/comment-page-1/#comment-43229</link>
		<dc:creator>The Subprime Primer &#8212; eightandfive Archive</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Sep 2008 04:31:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/09/14/epsilon-away-from-wipeout/#comment-43229</guid>
		<description>[...] Here&#8217;s a helpful and depressing tutorial on the current financial crapstorm, in cartoon form. I&#8217;m having a hard time figuring out who did the video, but it was linked to on Cosmic Variance. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Here&#8217;s a helpful and depressing tutorial on the current financial crapstorm, in cartoon form. I&#8217;m having a hard time figuring out who did the video, but it was linked to on Cosmic Variance. [...]</p>
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