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	<title>Comments on: Do You Think Inflation Probably Happened?</title>
	<atom:link href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2011/02/07/do-you-think-inflation-probably-happened/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2011/02/07/do-you-think-inflation-probably-happened/</link>
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		<title>By: flippiefanus</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2011/02/07/do-you-think-inflation-probably-happened/#comment-66573</link>
		<dc:creator>flippiefanus</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Mar 2011 10:11:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/?p=6148#comment-66573</guid>
		<description>Sorry for the late reply. I&#039;m way behind on my reading...

1 Inflation:   50% (other possibilities)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sorry for the late reply. I&#8217;m way behind on my reading&#8230;</p>
<p>1 Inflation:   50% (other possibilities)</p>
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		<title>By: Four Reasons Why I like String Theory &#171; viXra log</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2011/02/07/do-you-think-inflation-probably-happened/#comment-66572</link>
		<dc:creator>Four Reasons Why I like String Theory &#171; viXra log</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Feb 2011 19:37:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/?p=6148#comment-66572</guid>
		<description>[...] is partly a response to a recent survey on Cosmic Variance which included a question about what likelihood people gave to string theory being correct. With [...] </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] is partly a response to a recent survey on Cosmic Variance which included a question about what likelihood people gave to string theory being correct. With [...] </p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Jason</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2011/02/07/do-you-think-inflation-probably-happened/#comment-66571</link>
		<dc:creator>Jason</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Feb 2011 08:16:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/?p=6148#comment-66571</guid>
		<description>a speculation from a postdoc studying condensed matter physcis:

1 Inflation – 80% (observation support, although it is not the only solution)
2 Supersymmetry – 8% (little evidence until now)
3 String theory – 1% (no evidence, hard to be tested)
4 Some form of Higgs boson – 80% (&quot;some form&quot; is broad)
5 Large extra dimensions – 5% (no evidence)
6 WIMP dark matter -90% (observation supports that they may exist in some form)
7 Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration – 50% (maybe yes,maybe no)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>a speculation from a postdoc studying condensed matter physcis:</p>
<p>1 Inflation – 80% (observation support, although it is not the only solution)<br />
2 Supersymmetry – 8% (little evidence until now)<br />
3 String theory – 1% (no evidence, hard to be tested)<br />
4 Some form of Higgs boson – 80% (&#8220;some form&#8221; is broad)<br />
5 Large extra dimensions – 5% (no evidence)<br />
6 WIMP dark matter -90% (observation supports that they may exist in some form)<br />
7 Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration – 50% (maybe yes,maybe no)</p>
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		<title>By: David Wood</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2011/02/07/do-you-think-inflation-probably-happened/#comment-66570</link>
		<dc:creator>David Wood</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Feb 2011 01:37:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/?p=6148#comment-66570</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m not qualified to judge the likelihoods.  I&#039;m a multidisciplinary engineer.  However, it seems to me that sufficient evidence exists to seriously doubt everything on the list.

Let&#039;s start small and with impending evidence:  I doubt the LHC will find evidence of the Higgs, and will thus set off a golden age of theoretical physics as the Standard Model is ripped to shreds.

Don&#039;t take me for a creationist, though.  The very fact that the Standard Model exists proves that humans can conceptualize beginnings without mysticism.  Rock on, physicists who are smarter than me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not qualified to judge the likelihoods.  I&#8217;m a multidisciplinary engineer.  However, it seems to me that sufficient evidence exists to seriously doubt everything on the list.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s start small and with impending evidence:  I doubt the LHC will find evidence of the Higgs, and will thus set off a golden age of theoretical physics as the Standard Model is ripped to shreds.</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t take me for a creationist, though.  The very fact that the Standard Model exists proves that humans can conceptualize beginnings without mysticism.  Rock on, physicists who are smarter than me.</p>
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		<title>By: John R Ramsden</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2011/02/07/do-you-think-inflation-probably-happened/#comment-66569</link>
		<dc:creator>John R Ramsden</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Feb 2011 10:16:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/?p=6148#comment-66569</guid>
		<description>1. Inflation – 95% (explains a lot, and just the kind of thing the universe would do at start)

2. Supersymmetry – 70% (in some form)

3. String theory – 80% (even if strings/branes are not &quot;fundamental&quot; but resonances of swarms of dissipating/regenerating &quot;4-atoms&quot; a la Anastassov &amp; Petkov [see &quot;What is the Electron?&quot;, V Simulik ed, 2005] )

4. Some form of Higgs boson – 1% (hope not, or I lose a $500 bet with a well-known string theorist ;-) )

5. Large extra dimensions – 1% (their effects would have been observed by now)

6. WIMP dark matter – 1%

7. Non-CC explanation for cosmic acceleration –90% (in that a number on its own is not a satisfactory explanation, as others above have pointed out)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. Inflation – 95% (explains a lot, and just the kind of thing the universe would do at start)</p>
<p>2. Supersymmetry – 70% (in some form)</p>
<p>3. String theory – 80% (even if strings/branes are not &#8220;fundamental&#8221; but resonances of swarms of dissipating/regenerating &#8220;4-atoms&#8221; a la Anastassov &amp; Petkov [see "What is the Electron?", V Simulik ed, 2005] )</p>
<p>4. Some form of Higgs boson – 1% (hope not, or I lose a $500 bet with a well-known string theorist <img src='http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';-)' class='wp-smiley' />  )</p>
<p>5. Large extra dimensions – 1% (their effects would have been observed by now)</p>
<p>6. WIMP dark matter – 1%</p>
<p>7. Non-CC explanation for cosmic acceleration –90% (in that a number on its own is not a satisfactory explanation, as others above have pointed out)</p>
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		<title>By: John Peacock</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2011/02/07/do-you-think-inflation-probably-happened/#comment-66568</link>
		<dc:creator>John Peacock</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Feb 2011 22:39:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/?p=6148#comment-66568</guid>
		<description>Nice poll, but the devil may be in the detail of definition. I know people who say inflation means the production of superhorizon perturbations, by which definition it is observed to be true beyond reasonable doubt. But did the universe go through a phase of vacuum domination, the physics for which requires no quantum treatment of gravity? That seems much more questionable, and certainly has little observational support. If we see significant tensor fluctuations in the CMB, consistent with the tilt of the scalar spectrum, that would be impressive - but the best-fit tensor fraction seems stuck at zero, so I think the probability of inflation must struggle to get to 50%. String theory seems a flexible enough theory that it too may end up true by definition (didn&#039;t Schwarz say that any alternative theory would get called &quot;string theory&quot;?). But Bayes tells you you should adopt 50:50 odds in cases of ignorance, and that covers my knowledge of the maths of string theory.

1. Inflation – 30%
2. Supersymmetry – 60%
3. String theory – 50%
4. Some form of Higgs boson – 80%
5. Large extra dimensions – 1%
6. WIMP dark matter – 60%
7. Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration – 5%

Professor of cosmology, and textbook author.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nice poll, but the devil may be in the detail of definition. I know people who say inflation means the production of superhorizon perturbations, by which definition it is observed to be true beyond reasonable doubt. But did the universe go through a phase of vacuum domination, the physics for which requires no quantum treatment of gravity? That seems much more questionable, and certainly has little observational support. If we see significant tensor fluctuations in the CMB, consistent with the tilt of the scalar spectrum, that would be impressive &#8211; but the best-fit tensor fraction seems stuck at zero, so I think the probability of inflation must struggle to get to 50%. String theory seems a flexible enough theory that it too may end up true by definition (didn&#8217;t Schwarz say that any alternative theory would get called &#8220;string theory&#8221;?). But Bayes tells you you should adopt 50:50 odds in cases of ignorance, and that covers my knowledge of the maths of string theory.</p>
<p>1. Inflation – 30%<br />
2. Supersymmetry – 60%<br />
3. String theory – 50%<br />
4. Some form of Higgs boson – 80%<br />
5. Large extra dimensions – 1%<br />
6. WIMP dark matter – 60%<br />
7. Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration – 5%</p>
<p>Professor of cosmology, and textbook author.</p>
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		<title>By: CareyB</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2011/02/07/do-you-think-inflation-probably-happened/#comment-66567</link>
		<dc:creator>CareyB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Feb 2011 15:23:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/?p=6148#comment-66567</guid>
		<description>I am a lowly lay person with a math degree and an long time interest in physics.

To TRM (item 126), I wonder if John (item18) is John Moffat (and John&#039;s book was interesting)

1. Inflation - 30%
2. Supersymmetry - 50%
3. String theory - 10%
4. Some form of Higgs boson - 80%
5. Large extra dimensions - 0%
6. WIMP dark matter - 50%
7. Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration - 0%</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am a lowly lay person with a math degree and an long time interest in physics.</p>
<p>To TRM (item 126), I wonder if John (item18) is John Moffat (and John&#8217;s book was interesting)</p>
<p>1. Inflation &#8211; 30%<br />
2. Supersymmetry &#8211; 50%<br />
3. String theory &#8211; 10%<br />
4. Some form of Higgs boson &#8211; 80%<br />
5. Large extra dimensions &#8211; 0%<br />
6. WIMP dark matter &#8211; 50%<br />
7. Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration &#8211; 0%</p>
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		<title>By: Luis Ivan</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2011/02/07/do-you-think-inflation-probably-happened/#comment-66566</link>
		<dc:creator>Luis Ivan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Feb 2011 07:57:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/?p=6148#comment-66566</guid>
		<description>I want to study Physics, I&#039;m finishing high school and starting college this year :D
1. Inflation 30%
   2. Supersymmetry 10%
   3. String theory 10%
   4. Some form of Higgs boson 40%
   5. Large extra dimensions 0%
   6. WIMP dark matter 10%
   7. Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration 0%</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I want to study Physics, I&#8217;m finishing high school and starting college this year <img src='http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif' alt=':D' class='wp-smiley' /><br />
1. Inflation 30%<br />
   2. Supersymmetry 10%<br />
   3. String theory 10%<br />
   4. Some form of Higgs boson 40%<br />
   5. Large extra dimensions 0%<br />
   6. WIMP dark matter 10%<br />
   7. Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration 0%</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Albert Moomjy</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2011/02/07/do-you-think-inflation-probably-happened/#comment-66565</link>
		<dc:creator>Albert Moomjy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Feb 2011 05:20:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/?p=6148#comment-66565</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m a layman with a lifelong interest in science and physics.

1. Inflation – 66%
2. Supersymmetry – 60%
3. String theory – 33%
4. Some form of Higgs boson – 55%
5. Large extra dimensions – 5%
6. WIMP dark matter – 5%  I hate the idea of dark matter of all types
7. Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration – 15%

Question - are not inflation and string theory (in the form of M Theory and the hypothesis of an ekpyrotic universe) mutually exclusive?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m a layman with a lifelong interest in science and physics.</p>
<p>1. Inflation – 66%<br />
2. Supersymmetry – 60%<br />
3. String theory – 33%<br />
4. Some form of Higgs boson – 55%<br />
5. Large extra dimensions – 5%<br />
6. WIMP dark matter – 5%  I hate the idea of dark matter of all types<br />
7. Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration – 15%</p>
<p>Question &#8211; are not inflation and string theory (in the form of M Theory and the hypothesis of an ekpyrotic universe) mutually exclusive?</p>
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		<title>By: The Stand-Up Physicist</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2011/02/07/do-you-think-inflation-probably-happened/#comment-66564</link>
		<dc:creator>The Stand-Up Physicist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Feb 2011 21:50:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/?p=6148#comment-66564</guid>
		<description>Each of these proposals confront real problems with current models. If any of them were really right, I think the horse would be in the barn by now.  Since I am a member of the ultra-conservative fringe, I will give them all Easter eggs:

1.Cosmic inflation 0% - A new constant velocity solution for gravity perhaps
2.Supersymmetry 0% - Watch Olympic diving, easy to have multiple types of spin in one body
3.String theory 0% - Not a theory, an area of study that is not relevant to 3D space + scalar time
4.Higgs boson of any type 0% - find out in a few years, http://bit.ly/GEMtshirt says no stinkin Higgs
5.Large extra dimensions 0% - 3D space + time is MUCH richer than it is given credit
6.WIMP dark matter 0% - see 1, same solution would apply
7.Explanations of accelerated expansion not based on the cosmological constant 0% - GR is good, and will be replaced by something better, a variation on the only field theory better than GR, that of Maxwell.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Each of these proposals confront real problems with current models. If any of them were really right, I think the horse would be in the barn by now.  Since I am a member of the ultra-conservative fringe, I will give them all Easter eggs:</p>
<p>1.Cosmic inflation 0% &#8211; A new constant velocity solution for gravity perhaps<br />
2.Supersymmetry 0% &#8211; Watch Olympic diving, easy to have multiple types of spin in one body<br />
3.String theory 0% &#8211; Not a theory, an area of study that is not relevant to 3D space + scalar time<br />
4.Higgs boson of any type 0% &#8211; find out in a few years, <a href="http://bit.ly/GEMtshirt" rel="nofollow">http://bit.ly/GEMtshirt</a> says no stinkin Higgs<br />
5.Large extra dimensions 0% &#8211; 3D space + time is MUCH richer than it is given credit<br />
6.WIMP dark matter 0% &#8211; see 1, same solution would apply<br />
7.Explanations of accelerated expansion not based on the cosmological constant 0% &#8211; GR is good, and will be replaced by something better, a variation on the only field theory better than GR, that of Maxwell.</p>
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