<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>Cosmic Variance &#187; Cosmic Variance</title>
	<atom:link href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/category/cosmic-variance/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance</link>
	<description>Random samplings from a universe of ideas.</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sun, 22 Nov 2009 20:47:50 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4</generator>
	<language>en</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
			<item>
		<title>Shuttle Launch!</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/11/15/shuttle-launch/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/11/15/shuttle-launch/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Nov 2009 13:16:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Risa</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Cosmic Variance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Space]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Travel]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/?p=3206</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[So, a few weeks ago we all got an email here at cosmic variance inviting us to the first ever &#8220;NASA tweetup&#8221; for the next Shuttle Launch.  Sean and Mark are in Australia and JoAnne is in Egypt, and Julianne is a launch veteran&#8230; but Daniel and I decided that it was too good [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So, a few weeks ago we all got an email here at cosmic variance inviting us to the first ever &#8220;NASA tweetup&#8221; for the next Shuttle Launch.  Sean and Mark are in Australia and JoAnne is in Egypt, and Julianne is a launch veteran&#8230; but Daniel and I decided that it was too good of an opportunity to pass up.  This is despite the fact that neither of us actually knew what a tweetup was, or had ever tweeted before&#8230;</p>
<p>So we rearranged our schedules, met yesterday in Denver, woke up at 6 am this morning, and are now at Kennedy Space Center with 100 space twitterers.  They&#8217;ve got a full program here with astronauts and a tour today, and the launch of mission STS-129 to the space station at 2:29 pm tomorrow.  The event just started&#8230; So stay tuned, we&#8217;ll keep you posted.  We will be blogging as well as loosing our tweeting virginity  @cosmicvariance.  You can follow the rest of the gang by looking for #nasatweetup.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/11/15/shuttle-launch/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Good deeds</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/10/01/good-deeds/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/10/01/good-deeds/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 2009 04:10:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>daniel</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Cosmic Variance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Science and Society]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/?p=2737</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Once a year we implore our loyal CV readers to dig deep into their pockets, and support the cause of scientific literacy. One of the most direct and straightforward ways to do this is through Donors Choose, which facilitates direct contributions to primary and secondary classrooms (alas, for the moment only in the United States). [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Once a year we implore our loyal CV readers to dig deep into their pockets, and <a href="http://www.donorschoose.org/donors/viewChallenge.html?id=23711">support the cause of scientific literacy</a>. One of the most direct and straightforward ways to do this is through Donors Choose, which facilitates direct contributions to primary and secondary classrooms (alas, for the moment only in the United States). The projects are described in detail, and one knows exactly why and how the funds will be used. Your gift has a clear and discernible impact, emphasized by the personal handwritten thank you notes you receive from the students.<br />
<a href="http://www.donorschoose.org/donors/viewChallenge.html?id=23711"><img src="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/files/2009/10/SocialMediaFinal2_725c.jpg" alt="Donors choose social media challenge" title="Donors choose social media challenge" width="600" height="105" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2759" /></a> To further incentivize readers, Donors Choose runs a yearly <a href="http://www.donorschoose.org/donors/motherboard.html?motherboardId=8">Social Media Challenge</a>, where blogs compete to win fame and (give away) fortune. Last year we handidly trounced the folks over at ScienceBlogs. Over 100 CV readers donated a total of almost $9,000, impacting 1,700 students across the nation. We&#8217;re truly proud; our readers came through big time! This year we&#8217;re once again throwing our hat in the ring. <a href="http://www.donorschoose.org/donors/viewChallenge.html?id=23711">Donate here</a>. Tax deductible. Other bloggers are encouraged to set up their own challenges, or advertise ours (and we&#8217;ll happily list you at the top of our Donors Choose page). And although that warm feeling in your heart from helping needy children will certainly be sufficient, we&#8217;ll also post a list of all who contribute more than $100 (unless you request anonymity, of course). This is an incredibly direct way to improve the state of science and math education. Donations start as low as $5! And our schools need all the help they can get.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/10/01/good-deeds/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>9</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Tweeteriffic</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/08/20/tweeteriffic/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/08/20/tweeteriffic/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Aug 2009 18:48:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Cosmic Variance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/08/20/tweeteriffic/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Cosmic Variance now has its very own Twitter feed:

@CosmicVariance

This might seem superfluous, since we have, you know, a blog.  Mostly the tweets will consist of pointers to the blog posts (automatically generated from the RSS feed).  Perhaps the occasional special intervention.  But this is a quick and dirty way to integrate with [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Cosmic Variance now has its very own Twitter feed:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://twitter.com/cosmicvariance">@CosmicVariance</a></li>
</ul>
<p>This might seem superfluous, since we have, you know, a blog.  Mostly the tweets will consist of pointers to the blog posts (automatically generated from the RSS feed).  Perhaps the occasional special intervention.  But this is a quick and dirty way to integrate with the twitterverse, if people want to follow us there and re-tweet and all that delicious stuff.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll try to post something of substance soon.  Hopefully I will elaborate on this picture:</p>
<p><img src='http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/files/2009/08/tesla1.jpg' alt='Sean in a Tesla' /></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/08/20/tweeteriffic/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>8</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Toward a More Beautiful Blog</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/08/17/toward-a-more-beautiful-blog/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/08/17/toward-a-more-beautiful-blog/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Aug 2009 19:39:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Cosmic Variance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/08/17/toward-a-more-beautiful-blog/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We&#8217;ve tweaked the blog template once more, and things continue to look better.  This time we&#8217;ve re-arranged the format of the posts so that the top features just the name of the poster, and all the clutter is at the bottom.  And you can click on &#8220;N comments&#8221; to actually be taken to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We&#8217;ve tweaked the blog template once more, and things continue to look better.  This time we&#8217;ve re-arranged the format of the posts so that the top features just the name of the poster, and all the clutter is at the bottom.  And you can click on &#8220;<em>N</em> comments&#8221; to actually be taken to the comments!  </p>
<p>By &#8220;we,&#8221; of course I mean the web gurus at <em>Discover</em> &#8212; your humble bloggers didn&#8217;t have to do a damn thing.  Thanks, all.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/08/17/toward-a-more-beautiful-blog/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>8</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>You Have Fifteen Minutes to Get It Right</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/05/20/you-have-fifteen-minutes-to-get-it-right/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/05/20/you-have-fifteen-minutes-to-get-it-right/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2009 15:23:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Cosmic Variance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/05/20/you-have-fifteen-minutes-to-get-it-right/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thanks to the arcane magicks of Discover web producer Gemma Shusterman, this blog now offers the latest in commenting technology:  the ability to edit your own comments!  That&#8217;s right:  after you type in the comment and hit &#8220;Submit,&#8221; for the next fifteen minutes you will be able to go back and change [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks to the arcane magicks of <em>Discover</em> web producer Gemma Shusterman, this blog now offers the latest in commenting technology:  the ability to edit your own comments!  That&#8217;s right:  after you type in the comment and hit &#8220;Submit,&#8221; for the next fifteen minutes you will be able to go back and change what you wrote.  We expect that this will totally eliminate the appearance of typos or mistakes of judgment in any further comments.  (Note that, in order to actually leave a comment, you have to click on the post title.)</p>
<p>You&#8217;ll also notice that the name of the author now appears at the top of the post, which is very helpful.  We have a list of upgrades we&#8217;re trying to gradually implement, in order to make your blog-reading experience as pleasant as possible.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/05/20/you-have-fifteen-minutes-to-get-it-right/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>15</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Congrats to JoAnne and John!</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/05/18/congrats-to-joanne-and-john/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/05/18/congrats-to-joanne-and-john/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 May 2009 17:29:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Cosmic Variance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Personal]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/05/18/congrats-to-joanne-and-john/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Of course we hand out congratulations for newly minted Ph.D.&#8217;s; but there are other milestones worth congratulating as well.  Yesterday our very own JoAnne got married, at a beautiful winery nestled in the Santa Cruz Mountains.  It comes at the end of some trying times, so all the more worthy of celebration.  [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Of course we hand out congratulations for newly minted <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/05/11/doctor-sarkar/">Ph.D.&#8217;s</a>; but there are other milestones worth congratulating as well.  Yesterday our very own <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/joanne/">JoAnne</a> got married, at a beautiful winery nestled in the Santa Cruz Mountains.  It comes at the end of <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/10/17/when-cancer-strikes/">some trying times</a>, so all the more worthy of celebration.  Congrats to the happy couple!  (Now back to blogging, okay?)</p>
<p><img src='http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/files/2009/05/9085344.jpg' width='500' alt='JoAnne &#038; John’s Wedding' /></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/05/18/congrats-to-joanne-and-john/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>17</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>New Horizons</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/12/18/new-horizons/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/12/18/new-horizons/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2008 18:57:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Cosmic Variance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Entertainment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Science and Society]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/12/18/new-horizons/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[And the winner of our Elevator Pitch Contest is:  Jason Dick, for New Horizons!
Takes place about a century from now. Humanity has discovered planets around other stars harbor life. We send out a generation ship, where multiple generations of intrepid explorers will be born and die before it reaches its destination. This show follows [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And the <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/12/10/elevator-pitches-time-for-focus-group-input/">winner</a> of our <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/11/20/elevator-pitch-contest/">Elevator Pitch Contest</a> is:  Jason Dick, for <em>New Horizons</em>!</p>
<blockquote><p>Takes place about a century from now. Humanity has discovered planets around other stars harbor life. We send out a generation ship, where multiple generations of intrepid explorers will be born and die before it reaches its destination. This show follows their journey, where they are faced with mechanical failure, collisions with small dust grains that cause lots of damage, and people who crack under the stress of their situation. Mostly it’d be about a human drama of extremely driven people who are in a difficult situation, and whose children are forced to carry the torch of their parents.</p></blockquote>
<p>A well-deserved victory, as Jason has long been one of our most intelligent and helpful commenters.  And it&#8217;s a good show idea, certainly comparable with many things actually appearing on TV.  Jason, shoot us your address and a T-shirt will be forthcoming &#8212; soonish.</p>
<p>Interestingly, concepts that took the framework of a conventional sitcom or drama (<em>Friends</em>/<em>ER</em>) and made the characters scientists didn&#8217;t fare as well with our voters.  This might be a reflection of our voting pool, or a real difficulty involved in translating the life of a scientist into compelling narrative.  </p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/12/18/new-horizons/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>16</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Congratulations!</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/11/28/congratulations-2/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/11/28/congratulations-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Nov 2008 17:43:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Cosmic Variance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/11/28/congratulations-2/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Slightly belated congratulations go out to our very own John Conway, for being chosen as a Fellow of the American Physical Society.  The citation reads as follows:
Conway, John S.
University of California, Davis
Citation: For outstanding contributions in the search for the Higgs boson and physics beyond the Standard Model at high energy particle accelerators.
Nominated by: [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Slightly belated congratulations go out to our very own <a href="http://www.aps.org/programs/honors/fellowships/archive-all.cfm?initial=&#038;year=2008&#038;nom_unit=Particles+and+Fields+(DPF)&#038;institution=University+of+California%2C+Davis">John Conway</a>, for being chosen as a Fellow of the American Physical Society.  The citation reads as follows:</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>Conway, John S.</strong><br />
University of California, Davis<br />
Citation: For outstanding contributions in the search for the Higgs boson and physics beyond the Standard Model at high energy particle accelerators.<br />
Nominated by: Particles and Fields (DPF)</p></blockquote>
<p>And even more belated congratulations to our very own <a href="http://www.aps.org/programs/honors/fellowships/archive-all.cfm?initial=&#038;year=2007&#038;nom_unit=Particles+and+Fields+(DPF)&#038;institution=Stanford+University">JoAnne Hewett</a>, for being chosen last year, which I totally missed!  </p>
<blockquote><p><strong>Hewett, Joanne</strong><br />
Stanford University<br />
Citation: For her contributions to our understanding of constraints on and searches for physics beyond the Standard Model, and service to the particle physics community leading studies of future experiments.<br />
Nominated by: Particles and Fields (DPF)</p></blockquote>
<p>This is a great honor, which indicates that the newly-minted Fellow has advanced past a stage of callow youth and cheerful enthusiasm, to a status of grey eminence and profound wisdom.  Those of us remaining in the youthful stage will endeavor to show proper respect.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/11/28/congratulations-2/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>10</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Elevator Pitch Contest</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/11/20/elevator-pitch-contest/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/11/20/elevator-pitch-contest/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Nov 2008 17:49:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Cosmic Variance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Entertainment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Science and Society]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/11/20/elevator-pitch-contest/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yesterday&#8217;s launch event for the  Science and Entertainment Exchange was a smashing success.  The enthusiasm of everyone in the room was palpable, especially on the Hollywood side &#8212; these folks would love to be interacting more closely with scientists on a regular basis.  (Let me pause to give a plug for Eleventh [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yesterday&#8217;s <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16088-new-project-aims-to-unite-science-and-hollywood.html">launch event</a> for the  <a href="http://www.scienceandentertainmentexchange.org/index.html">Science and Entertainment Exchange</a> was a smashing success.  The enthusiasm of everyone in the room was palpable, especially on the Hollywood side &#8212; these folks would love to be interacting more closely with scientists on a regular basis.  (Let me pause to give a plug for <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eleventh_Hour_(U.S._TV_series)">Eleventh Hour</a>, a show which I haven&#8217;t actually seen yet, but whose writers were complaining that they sometimes take grief for being <em>too</em> scientifically accurate.)  I came away from the symposium with lots of new ideas, and also a deep-seated fear of our coming robot masters.</p>
<p>So, in honor of the new program, we hereby announce the <strong><em>Cosmic Variance</em> Elevator Pitch Contest</strong>.  I don&#8217;t know about you, but many folks I know with an interest in science take great pleasure in complaining about the embarrassing lack of realism and respect for the laws of nature apparent in so many movies and TV shows.  Here&#8217;s your (fictional) chance to do something about it.</p>
<p>Opening scene:  you step into an elevator at the headquarters of CBS/Paramount Television in Hollywood.  (Unclear why you are there &#8212; perhaps to have lunch with your more-successful friend from high school, who works for their legal team.)  There is only one other person in the elevator with you for the journey to the top floor &#8212; and it&#8217;s <a href="http://people.forbes.com/profile/leslie-moonves/16610">Les Moonves</a>, President and CEO of CBS!  (Again, unclear why he is taking the same elevator as you &#8212; we&#8217;ll fix that in post-production.)  </p>
<p>Here is the perfect opportunity for your  <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elevator_pitch">elevator pitch</a>.</p>
<p><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Tq0tan49rmc&#038;hl=en&#038;fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Tq0tan49rmc&#038;hl=en&#038;fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object></p>
<p>You have thirty seconds &#8212; which, as this blog is still a text-based medium, we&#8217;ll approximate as strictly 100 words or less &#8212; to pitch your idea for a new TV show that is based on science.  It can be an hour drama, a half-hour sitcom, a reality show, game show, documentary, science fiction, whatever you like.  For example:</p>
<blockquote><p>I have an idea for a show called <em>Cosmic Variance</em>.  It’s about seven scientists who blog during the day, but at night they fight crime!  And to do it, they used advanced notions from modern physics and astrophysics, from adaptive optics to quantum decoherence.  They’re young, they’re sexy, and they break hearts as they bust heads.  But their university colleagues are already suspicious of their blogging, so they have to keep the crime-fighting activities completely secret.  They have a deep underground lab where they carry out cutting-edge experiments, and there’s a canine sidekick named Sparky.</p></blockquote>
<p>Okay, that&#8217;s a fairly silly example.  I&#8217;m not eligible to win the contest.  But you, the reader, are!  So here are some of the ideas you want to keep in mind while polishing your pitch:</p>
<blockquote><p>Most importantly:  Les Moonves&#8217;s goal in life is <strong>not</strong> to make science look good.  It&#8217;s to make money.  So don&#8217;t pitch that this show would make the world a better place, or make science seem interesting; convince him that it&#8217;s exciting to everyone and will attract millions of eyeballs.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>Use the science.  For our purposes, we&#8217;re less interested in a show idea that tacks on some science to make things sound cool, as we are in a concept that couldn&#8217;t happen without the science.</p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p>Story is paramount.  As much as we love accuracy and realism, there has to be a compelling narrative.  You need to convince Moonves that people will be emotionally connected to the characters and their situation.</p></blockquote>
<p>It&#8217;s easy to mock the efforts of others, but here&#8217;s a chance to see whether you could really put together a compelling show idea.  Leave your entry in the comments.  They will be judged by our crack team of scientists/bloggers/crime-fighters, and the winner will get a <em>Cosmic Variance</em> T-shirt.   (We have plans to upgrade the quality of our current <a href="http://141086.spreadshirt.com/us/US/Shop/">swag options</a>.)  Please note that there is <em>not</em> some hidden plan to actually make any TV shows out of this &#8212; we have no clout along those lines, so if you are a professional scriptwriter, don&#8217;t dump your plans out in public here on our blog.  But if you&#8217;re a pro you already knew that.</p>
<p>And then:  memorize your pitch!  You never know when you might find yourself trapped in an elevator with the right person, and you have to be ready.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/11/20/elevator-pitch-contest/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>57</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Prediction Contest Results!</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/11/15/prediction-contest-results/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/11/15/prediction-contest-results/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Nov 2008 19:12:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Cosmic Variance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/11/15/prediction-contest-results/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Many have been asking:  who won our famous Presidential Prediction Contest?  The task, you will remember, was to predict how the popular vote would be distributed between the two major candidates, throwing away third-party votes and ignoring the electoral college altogether, expressed as a percentage of votes for Obama.  So if the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Many have been asking:  who won our famous <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/06/19/presidential-prediction-contest/">Presidential Prediction Contest</a>?  The task, you will remember, was to predict how the popular vote would be distributed between the two major candidates, throwing away third-party votes and ignoring the electoral college altogether, expressed as a percentage of votes for Obama.  So if the total number of votes for Obama is <em>V<sub>O</sub></em> , and the total number for McCain is <em>V<sub>M</sub></em> , the number you were predicting is </p>
<blockquote><p>
<img src='http://s.wordpress.com/latex.php?latex=%5Cdisplaystyle%7Bf%20%3D%20%5Cfrac%7B100%20V_O%7D%7B%28V_O%2BV_M%29%7D%7D%5C%2C%20.%20&#038;bg=ffffff&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='\displaystyle{f = \frac{100 V_O}{(V_O+V_M)}}\, . ' title='\displaystyle{f = \frac{100 V_O}{(V_O+V_M)}}\, . ' class='latex' />
</p></blockquote>
<p>&nbsp;<br />
<br />
&nbsp;</p>
<p>We&#8217;ve been delaying the announcement of the results, as the entries were tightly bunched and it takes time for votes to trickle in.  Indeed, Alaska still seems to be problematic, but patience is thin and it&#8217;s time to declare a winner!  Visit <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/07/03/prediction-contest-update/">here</a> to be reminded of who had staked out which bits of territory.  Here are the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008">vote totals</a> as of today:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Barack Obama:</strong> 66,679,600</p>
<p><strong>John McCain:</strong> 58,227,508</p></blockquote>
<p>which implies</p>
<blockquote><p><em>f</em> = 53.38.</p></blockquote>
<p>The <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/07/03/prediction-contest-update/#comment-41185">relevant entries</a>, courtesy of wqz, are</p>
<ul>
( 52.81689, 53.10869): Tim<br />
( 53.10869, 53.32282): Elliot<br />
( 53.32282, 53.47922): Anonymous Snowoboarder<br />
( 53.47922, 53.74739): Gabe<br />
( 53.74739, 53.78569): joulesm
</ul>
<p>And so the winner is:</p>
<blockquote><p><strong><a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/06/19/presidential-prediction-contest/#comment-40590">Anonymous Snowoboarder!</a></strong></p></blockquote>
<p>Who, I am guessing, may have mistyped their name.  But when you have mad prediction skills like that, who cares about typographical irregularities?</p>
<p>Here were the distribution of predictions near the right value:</p>
<blockquote><p><img src='http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/files/2008/11/ppcontest5.jpg' alt='ppcontest5.jpg' /></p></blockquote>
<p>&nbsp;<br />
<br />
&nbsp;<br />
<br />
&nbsp;<br />
<br />
&nbsp;<br />
<br />
&nbsp;<br />
<br />
&nbsp;<br />
<br />
&nbsp;<br />
<br />
&nbsp;<br />
<br />
&nbsp;</p>
<p>It&#8217;s interesting to note that the contest was announced in late June, just when Obama was hitting his summer peak of popularity (which was not as pronounced as his fall peak of popularity).  I wonder how the predictions would have gone had we done the contest in September?</p>
<p><a href='http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/11/15/prediction-contest-results/2041/' rel='attachment wp-att-2041' title='pollstercom-generalelection.jpg'><img src='http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/files/2008/11/pollstercom-generalelection.jpg' alt='pollstercom-generalelection.jpg' /></a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2008/11/15/prediction-contest-results/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>18</slash:comments>
		</item>
	</channel>
</rss>
