Perhaps the pestilence gods are with us!

By Razib Khan | April 29, 2009 2:36 am

Swine influenza, seasonality, and the northern hemisphere:

This history demonstrates the seasonality of pandemic influenza, and suggesta that spread of A/California/09/2009 in the northern hemisphere is not imminent. Based on this regularity, the epidemic in Mexico should be over no later than the end of May. While it is not ‘impossible to see the current contagion spreading in the northern hemisphere over the following months’, it would be unprecedented.

  • diana

    Heh, glad to see the experts agree w/me.
    Let’s keep an eye on the Southern hemisphere, esp. S. America. Mexico is in North America but there is lots travel between it and S. America.
    Cuba is the first country to embargo travel to and from Mexico. The irony.

  • megan

    When I heard on a news show from a medical commissioner 36,000 THOUSAND people die yearly in the US from regular flu strains, a few hundred or more in Califoria or Texas and we’ve only had what? In a near month worldwide less than to quarter? How many by the hundreds are already dead by automobiles, bikes just walking running. The death toll is mostly from bad regional hygiene due to water and national customs and not having a society steeped in nonstop immunization and antibiotic cleaning items.
    I’ll be worried when something like a Spanish flu sweeps through the world cutting down a good 1-5 million which would be replaced in population births easily within a month by half of the regions in India and China let alone the rest of the world. Humanity is fine till a asteroid hits or the full high temperatures hit from global warming. Still and yet as long as there’s more than half a mil of humans scrounging around somewhere on this dirtball, we ain’t going extinct. Feh, it’s just no one wants to be one of the ones biting the dust and not leaving progeny.


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About Razib Khan

I have degrees in biology and biochemistry, a passion for genetics, history, and philosophy, and shrimp is my favorite food. In relation to nationality I'm a American Northwesterner, in politics I'm a reactionary, and as for religion I have none (I'm an atheist). If you want to know more, see the links at


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