It’s implausible nonetheless, at least for me. Not even the post-Watergate midterm election in 1974 (aided by another recession) or the “Republican Revolution” in 1994 (aided by redistricting) produced a landslide of that magnitude. We’d have to hearken back to the Depression for comparable losses/gains, and the economy was far worse for the average voter than they are now.

Then again, I’m not brave enough to make a prediction, so who am I to criticize? Tomorrow can’t come soon enough. If nothing else, at least the never-ending campaign ads will stop.

Razib, I guess it depends on your frame of reference, doesn’t it? Just finished wading through the comments section on Paul “The Sky Is Falling” Krugman’s latest screed in the New York Times. They are gnashing their teeth and rending their clothes in anticipation of tomorrow’s electoral defeat.

I find the readership at GNXP refreshingly apolitical for the most part, or at least political in ways that go beyond the primitive Dem/Repub partisanship.

Then again, maybe you were pulling our leg; it’s sometimes hard to tell {*g*}.

awesome. duly noted. nate actually will admit when he thinks intuitively his model is over/underweighting given inputs to generate weird probabilities and/or expectations. and he keeps harping in the fact that the variance around the e(x) is pretty big here. re: alaska, there’s an underweighting of a recent polls, so that’s probably explaining part of the disjunction.

To an extent. I simply misread the numbers to indicate Murkowski in double digit lead, consistently and over more than a month – while in fact it is just one latest poll. Given how tight it is in reality, I buy into the theory that misspelling of her name will favor Miller. But then you are absolutely right that I should not have dismissed FiveThirtyEight based on just one thing.

the assumptions behind that comment are so stupid that i’ve definitely down-voted your credibility.

It is incompetent fascists, corporatists, and double-digit IQ christ-besotted jackasses running against bleeding heart Liberals, welfare pimps, Enviro-whiners, feminazis, and Queer Nation. Choose wisely.

Humor plays close to the big, hot fire that is Truth.