On to 2011….

By Razib Khan | December 31, 2010 9:01 am

Predictions, expectations, etc.

More use of the term “polytypic”.

Ötzi turns out to have Near Eastern affinities.

The Hobbits finally have some genetic material successfully analyzed.

Many, many, more human origins stories spun out of control by the press. Without a rock-hard interpretative framework like “Out of Africa” there is less “functional constraint.”


Facebook peaks in terms of cultural influence. Its user base and profits will continue to grow, but there will be a new “It” company.

The economy will grow faster than economists’ expectation. I don’t have great hope or insight, but economists’ forecasts are usually wrong, and lean toward conventional wisdom. The conventional wisdom is that we’ll muddle along.

More about exomes.

The blurring between blog and mainstream media will continue.

The segmentation of the blogosphere will continue.

Barack H. Obama will be profile as the “comeback kid” by conventional wisdom peddlers by the end of 2011.

People will start to get annoyed by the proliferation of “social media” firms, and the bubble will burst.

23andMe will have 200,000 customers by 2011.

Perl 6 will go prime-time, but it will be clear that working on IBM-time meant that they missed their window of opportunity.

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  • dave chamberlin

    In regards to “human origins stories spun out of control by the press,” no doubt. I just think it very impressive how fast science bloggers jump on the nonsense and shred to pieces. It wasn’t very long ago that obvious bullshit to those in the know was allowed a long incubation period to spread in the mainstream press. I guess this is where the other prediction, the blurring between blog and mainstream media comes in.

  • gcochran

    “those in the know”

    Who might that be?

  • dave chamberlin

    from my perspective, you and other serious scientists staying in their area of specialization.

    from yours, nobody.

  • http://ecophysio.fieldofscience.com/ EcoPhysioMichelle

    How do you reconcile “Facebook peaks in terms of cultural influence. Its user base and profits will continue to grow, but there will be a new “It” company.” with “People will start to get annoyed by the proliferation of “social media” firms, and the bubble will burst.”?

    [Also, I've been meaning to ask, can I use HTML in your comments? I've seen you do italics/whatever before.]

    My 23andMe kit is in the mail. :)

  • Antonio

    My 23andMe kit is in the mail :)

  • http://ecophysio.fieldofscience.com/ EcoPhysioMichelle

    I think there’s an echo in here.

  • http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp Razib Khan

    How do you reconcile “Facebook peaks in terms of cultural influence. Its user base and profits will continue to grow, but there will be a new “It” company.” with “People will start to get annoyed by the proliferation of “social media” firms, and the bubble will burst.”?

    i think a few social media companies will dominate the scene. kind of like the shake out with video game systems and OSes in the early 80s and 90s respectively (you don’t remember OS/2). facebook is going to cannibalize a lot of them.

  • http://lyingeyes.blogspot.com ziel

    The economy will grow faster than economists’ expectation…The conventional wisdom is that we’ll muddle along.

    The conventional wisdom is another year like this, around 2.5% growth. If so, that will constitute the 6th straight year of sub-3% gdp growth – an unprecedented string of poor growth years. The longest such stretches in the post-war period were for 3 years, which happened only 3 other times – ’56 thru ’58, ’80 thru ’82, and 2001 thru 2003. Note that with this current stretch, that leaves only 2005 and 2006 with above 3% growth in the last 10 years, and theirs were only 3.6 and 3.1% growth.

    So while your prediction of “faster growth” would be welcome news, it would be a rather surprising development given recent history and the current lack of any visible fundamental developments to spur it on.

  • http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp Razib Khan

    ziel, you are probably right. let’s hope not. do you believe in god? pray if so.

  • russ

    How many clients does 23andme have now?

  • http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp Razib Khan

    last i updated i saw before current sale was 60,000

  • http://lyingeyes.blogspot.com ziel

    Pray? That’s my wife’s department:)

  • Pingback: Hobbit DNA in 2011 | Gene Expression | Discover Magazine

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This blog is about evolution, genetics, genomics and their interstices. Please beware that comments are aggressively moderated. Uncivil or churlish comments will likely get you banned immediately, so make any contribution count!

About Razib Khan

I have degrees in biology and biochemistry, a passion for genetics, history, and philosophy, and shrimp is my favorite food. In relation to nationality I'm a American Northwesterner, in politics I'm a reactionary, and as for religion I have none (I'm an atheist). If you want to know more, see the links at http://www.razib.com

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