# American probability of death over time

By Razib Khan | May 13, 2011 1:52 pm

It’s Friday the 13th. So why not a morbid post? I stumbled onto to some “life tables” for 2007. Actually what the link gives you is the probability of death and life expectancy at a given age for males and females. This is obviously important for purposes of private and public insurance. The tables are naturally broken down by sex because males and females differ in their likelihood of death. Women are well known to have higher life expectancies in all but the most primitive of nations today.

I wanted to do a little visualization. I limited the years across the interval 0 to 100.  Since I find life expectancy a boring statistic (well known) I want to focus on probability of death in a given year. I generated four tables.

– First, a table which shows probability of death in a given year log transformed. I had to transform because the difference between a 1 year old and a 100 year old spans four orders of magnitude.

– Second, a table which illustrates the absolute change in the probability of death year to year. This is basically measuring the absolute change between year X and year X – 1. Concretely an example might be (probability of death at age 10) – (probability of death at age 9)

– Third, a table which takes the result from the above table and standardizes it by the value for the previous year, so it shows the year to year change proportionally. So [(probability of death at age 10) – (probability of death at age 9)]/(probability of death at age 9).

– Finally, a ratio of male to female probability of death over the years. This is usually > 1 obviously. Total surprise to me that it goes < 1 around age ~10. Go team male!

Remember that age is the x-axis on all the charts below.

The raw data is appended below the charts. Have a good weekend!

 Age Male death probability Male life expectancy Female death probability Female life expectancy Male death probability change Female death probability change Male death probability proportional change Female death probability proportional change Male/Female 0 0.007379 75.380000 0.006096 80.430000 1 0.000494 74.940000 0.000434 79.920000 0.006885 0.005662 0.933053 0.928806 1.1 2 0.000317 73.980000 0.000256 78.950000 0.000177 0.000178 0.358300 0.410138 1.2 3 0.000241 73.000000 0.000192 77.970000 0.000076 0.000064 0.239748 0.250000 1.3 4 0.000200 72.020000 0.000148 76.990000 0.000041 0.000044 0.170124 0.229167 1.4 5 0.000179 71.030000 0.000136 76.000000 0.000021 0.000012 0.105000 0.081081 1.3 6 0.000166 70.040000 0.000128 75.010000 0.000013 0.000008 0.072626 0.058824 1.3 7 0.000152 69.050000 0.000122 74.020000 0.000014 0.000006 0.084337 0.046875 1.2 8 0.000133 68.060000 0.000115 73.030000 0.000019 0.000007 0.125000 0.057377 1.2 9 0.000108 67.070000 0.000106 72.040000 0.000025 0.000009 0.187970 0.078261 1.0 10 0.000089 66.080000 0.000100 71.040000 0.000019 0.000006 0.175926 0.056604 0.9 11 0.000094 65.090000 0.000102 70.050000 -0.000005 -0.000002 -0.056180 -0.020000 0.9 12 0.000145 64.090000 0.000120 69.060000 -0.000051 -0.000018 -0.542553 -0.176471 1.2 13 0.000252 63.100000 0.000157 68.070000 -0.000107 -0.000037 -0.737931 -0.308333 1.6 14 0.000401 62.120000 0.000209 67.080000 -0.000149 -0.000052 -0.591270 -0.331210 1.9 15 0.000563 61.140000 0.000267 66.090000 -0.000162 -0.000058 -0.403990 -0.277512 2.1 16 0.000719 60.180000 0.000323 65.110000 -0.000156 -0.000056 -0.277087 -0.209738 2.2 17 0.000873 59.220000 0.000369 64.130000 -0.000154 -0.000046 -0.214186 -0.142415 2.4 18 0.001017 58.270000 0.000401 63.150000 -0.000144 -0.000032 -0.164948 -0.086721 2.5 19 0.001148 57.330000 0.000422 62.180000 -0.000131 -0.000021 -0.128810 -0.052369 2.7 20 0.001285 56.400000 0.000441 61.200000 -0.000137 -0.000019 -0.119338 -0.045024 2.9 21 0.001412 55.470000 0.000463 60.230000 -0.000127 -0.000022 -0.098833 -0.049887 3.0 22 0.001493 54.540000 0.000483 59.260000 -0.000081 -0.000020 -0.057365 -0.043197 3.1 23 0.001513 53.630000 0.000499 58.290000 -0.000020 -0.000016 -0.013396 -0.033126 3.0 24 0.001487 52.710000 0.000513 57.320000 0.000026 -0.000014 0.017184 -0.028056 2.9 25 0.001446 51.780000 0.000528 56.350000 0.000041 -0.000015 0.027572 -0.029240 2.7 26 0.001412 50.860000 0.000544 55.380000 0.000034 -0.000016 0.023513 -0.030303 2.6 27 0.001389 49.930000 0.000563 54.400000 0.000023 -0.000019 0.016289 -0.034926 2.5 28 0.001388 49.000000 0.000585 53.440000 0.000001 -0.000022 0.000720 -0.039076 2.4 29 0.001405 48.070000 0.000612 52.470000 -0.000017 -0.000027 -0.012248 -0.046154 2.3 30 0.001428 47.130000 0.000642 51.500000 -0.000023 -0.000030 -0.016370 -0.049020 2.2 31 0.001453 46.200000 0.000678 50.530000 -0.000025 -0.000036 -0.017507 -0.056075 2.1 32 0.001487 45.270000 0.000721 49.560000 -0.000034 -0.000043 -0.023400 -0.063422 2.1 33 0.001529 44.330000 0.000771 48.600000 -0.000042 -0.000050 -0.028245 -0.069348 2.0 34 0.001584 43.400000 0.000830 47.640000 -0.000055 -0.000059 -0.035971 -0.076524 1.9 35 0.001651 42.470000 0.000896 46.680000 -0.000067 -0.000066 -0.042298 -0.079518 1.8 36 0.001737 41.540000 0.000971 45.720000 -0.000086 -0.000075 -0.052090 -0.083705 1.8 37 0.001845 40.610000 0.001056 44.760000 -0.000108 -0.000085 -0.062176 -0.087539 1.7 38 0.001979 39.680000 0.001153 43.810000 -0.000134 -0.000097 -0.072629 -0.091856 1.7 39 0.002140 38.760000 0.001260 42.860000 -0.000161 -0.000107 -0.081354 -0.092801 1.7 40 0.002323 37.840000 0.001377 41.910000 -0.000183 -0.000117 -0.085514 -0.092857 1.7 41 0.002526 36.930000 0.001506 40.970000 -0.000203 -0.000129 -0.087387 -0.093682 1.7 42 0.002750 36.020000 0.001650 40.030000 -0.000224 -0.000144 -0.088678 -0.095618 1.7 43 0.002993 35.120000 0.001810 39.100000 -0.000243 -0.000160 -0.088364 -0.096970 1.7 44 0.003257 34.220000 0.001985 38.170000 -0.000264 -0.000175 -0.088206 -0.096685 1.6 45 0.003543 33.330000 0.002174 37.240000 -0.000286 -0.000189 -0.087811 -0.095214 1.6 46 0.003856 32.450000 0.002375 36.320000 -0.000313 -0.000201 -0.088343 -0.092456 1.6 47 0.004208 31.570000 0.002582 35.410000 -0.000352 -0.000207 -0.091286 -0.087158 1.6 48 0.004603 30.710000 0.002794 34.500000 -0.000395 -0.000212 -0.093869 -0.082107 1.6 49 0.005037 29.840000 0.003012 33.590000 -0.000434 -0.000218 -0.094286 -0.078024 1.7 50 0.005512 28.990000 0.003255 32.690000 -0.000475 -0.000243 -0.094302 -0.080677 1.7 51 0.006008 28.150000 0.003517 31.800000 -0.000496 -0.000262 -0.089985 -0.080492 1.7 52 0.006500 27.320000 0.003782 30.910000 -0.000492 -0.000265 -0.081891 -0.075348 1.7 53 0.006977 26.490000 0.004045 30.020000 -0.000477 -0.000263 -0.073385 -0.069540 1.7 54 0.007456 25.680000 0.004318 29.140000 -0.000479 -0.000273 -0.068654 -0.067491 1.7 55 0.007975 24.870000 0.004619 28.270000 -0.000519 -0.000301 -0.069608 -0.069708 1.7 56 0.008551 24.060000 0.004965 27.400000 -0.000576 -0.000346 -0.072226 -0.074908 1.7 57 0.009174 23.260000 0.005366 26.530000 -0.000623 -0.000401 -0.072857 -0.080765 1.7 58 0.009848 22.480000 0.005830 25.670000 -0.000674 -0.000464 -0.073468 -0.086470 1.7 59 0.010584 21.690000 0.006358 24.820000 -0.000736 -0.000528 -0.074736 -0.090566 1.7 60 0.011407 20.920000 0.006961 23.970000 -0.000823 -0.000603 -0.077759 -0.094841 1.6 61 0.012315 20.160000 0.007624 23.140000 -0.000908 -0.000663 -0.079600 -0.095245 1.6 62 0.013289 19.400000 0.008322 22.310000 -0.000974 -0.000698 -0.079091 -0.091553 1.6 63 0.014326 18.660000 0.009046 21.490000 -0.001037 -0.000724 -0.078034 -0.086998 1.6 64 0.015453 17.920000 0.009822 20.690000 -0.001127 -0.000776 -0.078668 -0.085784 1.6 65 0.016723 17.190000 0.010698 19.890000 -0.001270 -0.000876 -0.082185 -0.089188 1.6 66 0.018154 16.480000 0.011702 19.100000 -0.001431 -0.001004 -0.085571 -0.093849 1.6 67 0.019732 15.770000 0.012832 18.320000 -0.001578 -0.001130 -0.086923 -0.096565 1.5 68 0.021468 15.080000 0.014103 17.550000 -0.001736 -0.001271 -0.087979 -0.099049 1.5 69 0.023387 14.400000 0.015526 16.790000 -0.001919 -0.001423 -0.089389 -0.100901 1.5 70 0.025579 13.730000 0.017163 16.050000 -0.002192 -0.001637 -0.093727 -0.105436 1.5 71 0.028032 13.080000 0.018987 15.320000 -0.002453 -0.001824 -0.095899 -0.106275 1.5 72 0.030665 12.440000 0.020922 14.610000 -0.002633 -0.001935 -0.093928 -0.101912 1.5 73 0.033467 11.820000 0.022951 13.910000 -0.002802 -0.002029 -0.091375 -0.096979 1.5 74 0.036519 11.210000 0.025147 13.220000 -0.003052 -0.002196 -0.091194 -0.095682 1.5 75 0.040010 10.620000 0.027709 12.550000 -0.003491 -0.002562 -0.095594 -0.101881 1.4 76 0.043987 10.040000 0.030659 11.900000 -0.003977 -0.002950 -0.099400 -0.106464 1.4 77 0.048359 9.480000 0.033861 11.260000 -0.004372 -0.003202 -0.099393 -0.104439 1.4 78 0.053140 8.940000 0.037311 10.630000 -0.004781 -0.003450 -0.098865 -0.101887 1.4 79 0.058434 8.410000 0.041132 10.030000 -0.005294 -0.003821 -0.099624 -0.102409 1.4 80 0.064457 7.900000 0.045561 9.430000 -0.006023 -0.004429 -0.103074 -0.107678 1.4 81 0.071259 7.410000 0.050698 8.860000 -0.006802 -0.005137 -0.105528 -0.112750 1.4 82 0.078741 6.940000 0.056486 8.310000 -0.007482 -0.005788 -0.104997 -0.114166 1.4 83 0.086923 6.490000 0.062971 7.770000 -0.008182 -0.006485 -0.103910 -0.114807 1.4 84 0.095935 6.060000 0.070259 7.260000 -0.009012 -0.007288 -0.103678 -0.115736 1.4 85 0.105937 5.650000 0.078471 6.770000 -0.010002 -0.008212 -0.104258 -0.116882 1.4 86 0.117063 5.260000 0.087713 6.310000 -0.011126 -0.009242 -0.105025 -0.117776 1.3 87 0.129407 4.890000 0.098064 5.870000 -0.012344 -0.010351 -0.105447 -0.118010 1.3 88 0.143015 4.550000 0.109578 5.450000 -0.013608 -0.011514 -0.105157 -0.117413 1.3 89 0.157889 4.220000 0.122283 5.060000 -0.014874 -0.012705 -0.104003 -0.115945 1.3 90 0.174013 3.920000 0.136190 4.690000 -0.016124 -0.013907 -0.102122 -0.113728 1.3 91 0.191354 3.640000 0.151300 4.360000 -0.017341 -0.015110 -0.099653 -0.110948 1.3 92 0.209867 3.380000 0.167602 4.040000 -0.018513 -0.016302 -0.096747 -0.107746 1.3 93 0.229502 3.150000 0.185078 3.760000 -0.019635 -0.017476 -0.093559 -0.104271 1.2 94 0.250198 2.930000 0.203700 3.500000 -0.020696 -0.018622 -0.090178 -0.100617 1.2 95 0.270750 2.750000 0.222541 3.260000 -0.020552 -0.018841 -0.082143 -0.092494 1.2 96 0.290814 2.580000 0.241317 3.050000 -0.020064 -0.018776 -0.074105 -0.084371 1.2 97 0.310029 2.440000 0.259716 2.870000 -0.019215 -0.018399 -0.066073 -0.076244 1.2 98 0.328021 2.300000 0.277409 2.700000 -0.017992 -0.017693 -0.058033 -0.068124 1.2 99 0.344422 2.190000 0.294054 2.540000 -0.016401 -0.016645 -0.050000 -0.060002 1.2 100 0.361644 2.070000 0.311697 2.390000 -0.017222 -0.017643 -0.050003 -0.059999 1.2
CATEGORIZED UNDER: Anthroplogy
• http://backseatdriving.blogspot.com/ Brian Schmidt

I didn’t know about the gender convergence at extreme old age. Interesting.

• Doug Henning

@Brian
This may come as a shock, but eventually the probability of death for both men AND women is exactly the same: 100%.
< /gentleribbing >

• Chris T

I’m surprised to see that a significant fraction of the life expectancy difference between men/women is actually from higher death rates among 14-35 year olds in males.

• John Emerson

My over / under is 2027. My genetics would make me older than the norm, but my lifestyle probably cancels that.

• simplicio

Yea, I’m kinda curious. Why do males have such a higher death probability at 15-35 (3x !). Are we more prone to a particular disease (heart disease maybe?)?, higher suicide rates?, more likely to die in violence?

• Åse

My first thought was that the boys become slightly more prone to take risks than girls. I thought there was a suicide difference also. And wars.

• Sandgroper

In the American data, as in most countries, wars are trivial as a cause of death.

Think traffic, violence, drug use, suicide…

Young men are the big risk takers.

• Jon claerbout

I’d rather see the quartiles. In science we give the mean and variance of our estimates.

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