Hope before the fall

By Razib Khan | May 30, 2011 11:08 pm

I think it is pretty irrational to bet on the Mavericks against the Heat in the NBA Finals. And since my Celtics lost I haven’t been following what’s going on closely, but I hope Jason Kidd gets his ring. He’s had some ups and downs, but I do remember being amazed by him when he was a freshman at Cal (though watching tape of Magic it was clear that he had the same panache when it came to assists):

  • dave chamberlin

    Vegas odds have the Miami Heat to beat the Dallas Mavericks at 58%. They are favorites but not overwhelming favorites. I follow gambling odds on sports I enjoy, but don’t gamble myself because there is a 10% take by the bookie or internet sports book and I can never win over the long haul. The odds are set with incredible accuracy by the a combination of opening odds followed by free floating market demand. This free floating makes the odds even more accurate because those with inside knowledge bet huge amounts while Joe Public bets tiny amounts before going broke. If our countries economists could perform predictive analysis as well as the odds makers in sports could, we would be in far better shape. I have no hope that something like this can ever happen but if gambling on the outcomes of elections ever becomes popular I will follow it far more closely than the blathering experts. I could go on with a prediction that our cash strapped government will eventually make sports gambling legal but that is another subject for another day.

  • Thomas

    Robin Hanson’s work on prediction markets might be of interest to you. He’s basically proposing to use prediction markets to shape public policy. The name for that beast would be “futarchy”.
    My own take is pretty close to Moldbug’s though:


Discover's Newsletter

Sign up to get the latest science news delivered weekly right to your inbox!

Gene Expression

This blog is about evolution, genetics, genomics and their interstices. Please beware that comments are aggressively moderated. Uncivil or churlish comments will likely get you banned immediately, so make any contribution count!

About Razib Khan

I have degrees in biology and biochemistry, a passion for genetics, history, and philosophy, and shrimp is my favorite food. In relation to nationality I'm a American Northwesterner, in politics I'm a reactionary, and as for religion I have none (I'm an atheist). If you want to know more, see the links at http://www.razib.com


See More


RSS Razib’s Pinboard

Edifying books

Collapse bottom bar