The way I interpret the autosomal data, there is a gradient from about 20% in the Southeast to about 10% in Central and Western Europe, to about 5% or less at the northern and Baltic fringes. Sorry, I don’t see this happening, the 2-4 main, distinct European components are just that, and they are old.

- Housing will not bottom out in 2012

It already has started: the change of the rate of decline is sufficient to point to an imminent bottoming out (latest with the March to June housing pick-up). In some regions of the US, apartment buildings are in short supply now, and new construction has started to pick up.

- A major revision of our understanding of the archaeogenetics of the New World will be published, using ancient DNA

The existing models are already so flexible, I can’t see this, either. There were perhaps two early, pretty much concomitant immigrations (coastal sea foragers and inland hunters), followed by a couple of waves of much more recent Inuits. Based on archaeological evidence, the first groups likely spent some time in Beringia first, so they are ~40,000 years old compared to most of Asia, or at least ~15,000 – 20,000 years old compared to some Siberian outliers. But, yes, like SE Asians and Eastern Siberians/Mongolians, I expect native Americans to have a high Denisovan and also another, high “additional ancient” component.

- Scientists will discover that 50% of more of the ancestry of most Africans is due to an ancient “back migration” event from Eurasian, on the order of 200 thousand years B.P. (which distinguishes Pygmies and Khoisan, who do not bear as much of this stamp).

Based on climate, I see strong contact before ~350,000 – 400,000 years, and then almost nothing until ~130,000 – 80,000 ya. So, I think back migration happened in the latter time frame, and likely again around 40,000 ya and again during the very early neolithic.

- Siri will get good enough by December 2012 that people will no longer be able to play jokes on it.

From “Insufficient data! I do not understand!” to “Cut it out – I know what you are up to. You are bored, you know you cannot win this game. May I suggest a game of chess? Also, my instructor taught me to sing a song. Would you like to hear it, Dave? Daisy, Daisy, give me your answer do…”

200ky is mighty old. That’s the age of the oldest found anatomically modern humans in Africa, right? Did you mean 100ky? That would be the age of the Near East population which Dienekes posits is the actual source of the 70ky radiation of Eurasians.

no. look at the time frame i specified. the best guesses are that the archaic admixture outside of africa took places ~50,000 years BP. the back migration that i’m positing is older. it may have predated the admixture.

Isn’t that pretty much already over with? As Nooffensebut mentioned, we know about the differences between blacks and non-blacks, though I’m not sure if that had been published yet or not in a “high impact journal”

it’s not over with. i have talked enough researchers without political axes to grind who are working in this area to accept that this is not a settled domain. and yes, i did specify “high impact.”

I’m surprised you made no mention of Eugenics/Reprogenetics in your predictions? Wouldn’t all of this make the demand/support for Eugenic programs much more widespread?

my predictions are for 2012. no, i don’t think we’ll start talking about this. yet. as prenatal screening becomes very common and nationalized healthcare ubiquitous, i think the topic will be broached. though to be fair, “end of life care” is the real low hanging fruit at this point, so i think that will be addressed before “beginning of life” choices.

“- Scientists will discover that 50% of more of the ancestry of most Africans is due to an ancient “back migration” event from Eurasian, on the order of 200 thousand years B.P. (which distinguishes Pygmies and Khoisan, who do not bear as much of this stamp).”

Wouldn’t this be impossible due to blacks(meant to encompass blacks worldwide not just black Americans) don’t have the Neanderthal/Denosovian genes?

“- A major paper will be published in a high impact journal outlining the genes for major bio-behavioral differences between human populations.”

Isn’t that pretty much already over with? As Nooffensebut mentioned, we know about the differences between blacks and non-blacks, though I’m not sure if that had been published yet or not in a “high impact journal”

Both of these questions tie into this next one, given the above, I’m surprised you made no mention of Eugenics/Reprogenetics in your predictions? Wouldn’t all of this make the demand/support for Eugenic programs much more widespread? I’m not sure how far along genetic engineering is(especially with regards to IQ), but looks like now would be a good time to start engineering if feasible(despite any protests, my thing is if parents want to engineer their children as I’m sure many do and more will, why not?)

“At least they will always have their Christian extremist base.”

Chad, anyone who uses the term 1% shouldn’t bitch about religious extremists because they are one.

I’m not convinced that the Associated Press is aware that India continued to exist after Ghandi and hasn’t produced a front page article that didn’t involve death from unnatural causes or toilets or microlending for many years. The American media is barely aware that France or sub-Saharan Africa exist, let alone India. On the other hand, given that low bar, one page two, single column article on a slow news day in the entire year would probably meet that criterion.

“I see Obama winning over most Republican candidates, except Ron Paul.”

A Ron Paul GOP nominee would be hard pressed to get 40% of the vote in the general. He might win New Hampshire, Wyoming or Utah.

A prediction of my own (under 50%): The U.S. involvement of 100 special operations forces in Uganda to deal with the Lord’s Resistance Army becomes a central focus of American public attention for at least a couple of weeks due either to a major unexpected casaulty toll, or a really dramatic victory that enhances faith in American ability to take on insurgencies.

“A major revision of our understanding of the archaeogenetics of the New World will be published, using ancient DNA”

The only hypothesis that could produce that kind of paper, with any real likelihood, would be something that established a quite recent data for a separate Na-Dene wave and documented that most of the minor haplogroups in the Americas are traceable to that migration. Hard to see any other way that it could happen (I suppose one could find ancient DNA to support the argument that pre-Clovis Paleoindians aren’t related to modern native Americans and went extinct no later than Clovis.)

@ Uncle Al: Damn. Are you a 2012 guy or what?

@Razib:

Have you considered putting up these predictions on Prediction book:
http://predictionbook.com/

I’d love to put my probability estimates to them instead of just writing out silly sticky words, that can be lawyered to mean almost anything.

You mean like when Reti et al showed that African-American men are ten times more likely than white men to have MAOA 2R, the allele that is twice as warrior-y as the warrior gene? I think it might be hard for such findings to make a big splash when the researchers do not wish to find them.

I’m a Libertarian and 4 years ago, I wrote Ron Paul off as a crank, as he wouldn’t/couldn’t organize a proper candidacy. I think he has a viable chance today, as the Occupy Wall Street movement basically spreads his 40 year old message of fiscal responsibility…

I think, as I’ve said before that Obama will go down as one of the worse presidents in history, right up there with Jimmy Carter. His only redeeming act is the elimination of Bin Laden. But bailing out Wall Street and printing trillions of dollars is unforgivable, as it destroys the savings of the ordinary punter, and effectively hands their hard won cash to the 1%