And most non europeans who live in france come from africa and north africa.
In 2007, 28.45% of all newborns in mainland France had at least one parent originated from a region defined “at risk” (mainly Africa and Overseas departments and territories of France) and were screened for SCD.

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sickle-cell_disease#France

something less known is that approx 200k people leave france every year many of them are young and educated and people with foreign origins are slightly overrepresented. (read that in a serious newspaper several years ago, the subject of emigration is even more taboo that immigration in france)

also the TFR of ethnic french women was estimated at 1.7, that of second generation immigrants at 1.9, and that of immigrants is similar to the one in their country of origins, north african conutries is 2.5/3 and west african countries is 5 to 7 if i remember correctly.

The two major books detailing this phenomenon are by Gilles Kepel (Les banlieues de l’Islam: naissance d’une religion en France) (The suburbs of Islam, the birth of a religion in France) and Olivier Roy Globalized Islam: The Search for a New Ummah.

He also notes the internal diversity in the European Muslim community (Punjabis and Mirpuris in England, Arabs and Berbers in Ménilmontant, Sunnis and Alevites in Marxloh, etc.) but thinks it’s been overemphasized.

What this comes down to is an inability to distinguish between different components of what’s a relatively diverse community, i.e. descendants of migrants from Arabophone or Berberophone regions, from different countries, different waves, etc. Some French Muslims may be in the process of becoming more conservative; others may not.

As for Caldwell’s figures, does he identify if the rise in church attendance in the Netherlands is associated with immigration at all? European countries do receive significant numbers of Christian immigrants, too.

one thing to remember is that the source countries for french muslims (especially algeria and tunisia) are a lot less crazy than one of the source countries for british muslims (pakistan). and one maghrebi group, the kabyle, make a big deal of their secularism for various reasons….

If you look at the Spanish population, it was leveling off at 40M in 2000 when it suddenly went up by 5M in 10 years. Actually immigrant population went from 0.5M to 5M in those 10 years. If they leave, and they surely are thinking on it because of the economic crisis (remember, >20% unemployment and rising), it will be a blowout. I hope they stay and have children, because the Spanish baby boom (born in the 70s) are already in their late 30s and aren’t.

Fear of southern mediterranean immigration? Actually what I fear is a lack of it. And I believe it is the best way of moving those social indicators. Stories from all the Spanish immigrants that went to Germany did a lot to open the mind of the country. The Swedes in bikini helped big too.

i was talking about maghrebis specifically. see the focus of the post.

i have some anecdotes regarding a relative who followed the general trend of educated women having children later in life and the pregnancies there were successful.