Believe it or not I am probably mildly skeptical about the possibilities for the 21st century as a canvas for human flourishing. That is one reason I like to emphasize the positive, because it is important for me to not get caught up in my own bias. Over the last two human generations (50 years) mean world life expectancy has gone from ~53 to ~69. This is easy for me forget concretely because I come from a relatively long lived family. Though all were born in British India and died in Bangladesh my grandparents lived to ages of 75, 100, 80, and 80. My grandparent who died at the age of 75 still lived 25 years longer than life expectancy in Bangladesh in the year he died.
Today I see a headline in The New York Times, Majority of Chinese Now Live in Cities. For some reason I was prompted to look up the Wikipedia entry for Shenzhen, a city of 350,000 in 1982, which is now at 10 million. The image below of Shenzhen captures for me the poignant banality of the future present. One the one hand it is nothing special, a typical “world city” skyline. But there is also an aspect redolent of the soft focus depictions of the cities of the future in the children’s books I would read in the 1980s. The photo is proof of nothing. Rather, it is an illustration of fact.
Image credit: Wikipedia
Razib Khan’s degrees are in biochemistry and biology. He has blogged about genetics since 2002, previously worked in software development, is an Unz Foundation Junior Fellow and lives in the western US. He loves habaneros.
January 17th, 2012 at 12:51 pm
We are probably closer to doom than we might think.
Look at the Doomsday Argument, it will be vaild for a lot of people. Since there is no possibilty of Space Migration, the number of humans who have ever lived will be finite. We are now at roughly 100 Billions. Its unlikely there will be another 100 Billion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument
January 17th, 2012 at 4:21 pm
I don’t buy the worst case scenario of the black swan arguments as a likely probability, but I do think the 21st century will be really rough for all those poor folks living in those parts of the world projected (by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation) to have rising food costs reach the average national income. We have one foot out of the Malthusian trap and the other sliding back in. It is a cold comment to state that if humanity is too stupid to voluntarily limit it’s population then it will be done by events we don’t control. Doom, no. Third world countries swept up into mayhem? We are on course for that. I’m not worried about China, it’s Africa and the Middle East where the shit is on a collision course with the proverbial fan.
January 17th, 2012 at 6:44 pm
“That is one reason I
like to emphasize the positive, because it is
important for me to not get caught up in my own
bias.”
right on.
January 17th, 2012 at 7:07 pm
#2, in America the standard of living is declining as well. Wages have not kept pace since 1973, etc. This is real talk. Young adults and kids coming up behind them are not as likely to be as prosperous as your generation (baby boomers). If you have grandkids, their future (although still better than a third worlder) remains uncertain as well.
January 18th, 2012 at 9:26 am
Razib writes:
“That is one reason I like to emphasize the positive”
…and Johnny Mercer & The Pied Pipers sing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7ofC_8v38s
January 18th, 2012 at 11:24 am
1: One major problem with the Doomsday argument is definitional. What constitutes a human? Why only include humans and not all evolutionary ancestors or descendents?
To me, the current general trend of life improving for people globally is likely to hold over the course of the century, but with plenty of noise. Basically we’ll do what we’ve always done – somehow muddle through.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:43 am
#4, the supposed decline of American wages in recent decades has nothing to do with the conversation going on here. It may be, in your mind, part of the big scary picture of what’s to come, but it’s actually unrelated.
January 18th, 2012 at 3:16 pm
This wacky building is in Shenzhen (the outskirts), near BGI.
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2011/01/futurismo.html
January 18th, 2012 at 7:06 pm
What’s so wacky about a cantilever?
January 19th, 2012 at 6:16 am
Mean life expectancy will plateau, but the variance around the mean will shrink.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
David Chamberlin—
I don’t buy the worst case scenario of the black swan arguments as a likely probability, but I do think the 21st century will be really rough for all those poor folks living in those parts of the world projected (by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation) to have rising food costs reach the average national income. We have one foot out of the Malthusian trap and the other sliding back in. It is a cold comment to state that if humanity is too stupid to voluntarily limit it’s population then it will be done by events we don’t control. Doom, no. Third world countries swept up into mayhem? We are on course for that. I’m not worried about China, it’s Africa and the Middle East where the shit is on a collision course with the proverbial fan.
If the West withdrew its food and other aid to Africa now, there’d be tens of millions who’d starve or die from diseases and warfare exacerbated by malnutrition, over a period of time. Governments all over Europe are struggling to reduce their deficits and avoid piling on higher debt to GDP ratios, which GDP is seen to be growing slowly over and extended period, and to actually shrink there this year. We should be struggling to do that, but aren’t much yet.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Japan has almost a 200% debt to GDP ratio so it’s not going to be giving tons more aid to the third world.
January 20th, 2012 at 6:50 am
@Doug
Debt ratio in the first world is one of the most important factors to prevent the third world starvation/chaos scenario which I believe is likely in the 21st century. But long term-big picture, believe it or not, I am an optimist. Most parts of the world have done a spectacularly good job of birth contol. Mexico in one generation has gone from 6 kids per couple to 2.3.(head on over to Hans Roslings http://www.gapminder. org for some spectacular statistical presentations) Long term- big picture I have to think that better brains got us to where we are and better brains will get us to where we are going. We may be only a century or less away from fixing stupid, a singularity scenario I am rooting for. We are going to have to be complete fuck ups to not increase peace, prosperity, and planned parenthood long term.
January 22nd, 2012 at 5:05 pm
The Doomsday Argument is only about births, not deaths. If we get radical life extension, society becomes one of youthful post-mortals, and the birth rate drops to near zero; that would actually fit the Doomsday Argument.