Say hi to Tropical Storm Dorian, the fourth named storm of the 2013 hurricane season. You can see it developing off the west coast of Africa in the animation above consisting of images from the European Meteosat weather satellite.
Dorian spawned from a trough of relatively low pressure called a tropical wave moving off Africa and out into the Atlantic. It turns out that almost 85 percent of major Atlantic hurricanes begin in this way, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But keep your hat on. Right now the National Hurricane Center isn’t saying anything about Dorian turning into a hurricane.
That said, the storm is producing maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour. And pushed by the trade winds, it is moving west-northwest across the Atlantic at about 20 miles per hour.
Here are the probabilities of tropical storm force wind speeds through Sunday, from the National Hurricane Center:
Starting on Sunday, the storm could be dumping heavy rain in parts of the Lesser Antilles. After that? In his WunderBlog at Wunderground.com, meteorologist Jeff Masters says there’s a possibility that the storm could pose a threat further on:
It currently appears that Dorian will be a potential threat to the Bahama Islands, Bermuda, and the U.S. East Coast next week. There will be a trough of low pressure capable of recurving Dorian out to sea before the storm reaches the Bahamas and U.S., but this trough is currently depicted as being fairly weak, reducing the chances of Dorian missing the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast.
It’s obviously way too soon to say with any confidence whether Dorian poses a threat to the Eastern Seaboard. But it also looks like we should keep an eye on him.