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	<title>Comments on: Does Birth Season Matter?</title>
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	<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/2009/09/23/does-birth-season-matter/</link>
	<description>Where science collides with life, slams into culture, crashes with politics, and gets totaled.</description>
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		<title>By: If Birth Season Matters&#8230; Another Possibility Why &#124; The Intersection &#124; Discover Magazine</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/2009/09/23/does-birth-season-matter/#comment-42499</link>
		<dc:creator>If Birth Season Matters&#8230; Another Possibility Why &#124; The Intersection &#124; Discover Magazine</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Dec 2009 18:08:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/?p=2875#comment-42499</guid>
		<description>[...] graph shows a clear seasonal trend and brings to mind the study on birth season that came out earlier this year from the University of Notre Dame. So perhaps we have yet another [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] graph shows a clear seasonal trend and brings to mind the study on birth season that came out earlier this year from the University of Notre Dame. So perhaps we have yet another [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Bartik</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/2009/09/23/does-birth-season-matter/#comment-32462</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Bartik</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2009 22:45:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/?p=2875#comment-32462</guid>
		<description>I think there is some misunderstanding here about WHY this result has any importance. The Wall Street Journal article helps explain it a little bit. The basic issue is this: it has sometimes been proposed in various studies that &quot;month of birth&quot; be used to drive some exogenous change in some variable, so that we can identify causal effects of that variable on some other variable. For example, it has sometimes been proposed that &quot;month of birth&quot; may be interacted with data on state laws on when you can leave school to identify &quot;causal&quot; effects of education on later outcomes such as earnings. We know more education is correlated with higher earnings, but is this relationship totally causal? The month of birth and school leaving laws interact to produce differences in what grade you will be able to leave school.  If month of birth is uncorrelated with anything else  -- that is, if we can assume that those born in each month are  a random sample of the population, with no tendency to have unobserved characteristics that vary systematically -- then the correlations of month of birth with educational and earnings outcomes has the potential of relatively simply identifying causal effects of education on earnings. But if those born each month are NOT a random sample of the population, then things are more complicated.  

Therefore, the issue is not the inherent importance of month of birth as something to investigate. The issue is the degree to which the authors&#039; finding makes it more difficult for social scientists to use month of birth as a source of &quot;natural experiments&quot; involving more important topics.

As for statistical significance, it should be noted that the authors are using huge samples.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think there is some misunderstanding here about WHY this result has any importance. The Wall Street Journal article helps explain it a little bit. The basic issue is this: it has sometimes been proposed in various studies that &#8220;month of birth&#8221; be used to drive some exogenous change in some variable, so that we can identify causal effects of that variable on some other variable. For example, it has sometimes been proposed that &#8220;month of birth&#8221; may be interacted with data on state laws on when you can leave school to identify &#8220;causal&#8221; effects of education on later outcomes such as earnings. We know more education is correlated with higher earnings, but is this relationship totally causal? The month of birth and school leaving laws interact to produce differences in what grade you will be able to leave school.  If month of birth is uncorrelated with anything else  &#8212; that is, if we can assume that those born in each month are  a random sample of the population, with no tendency to have unobserved characteristics that vary systematically &#8212; then the correlations of month of birth with educational and earnings outcomes has the potential of relatively simply identifying causal effects of education on earnings. But if those born each month are NOT a random sample of the population, then things are more complicated.  </p>
<p>Therefore, the issue is not the inherent importance of month of birth as something to investigate. The issue is the degree to which the authors&#8217; finding makes it more difficult for social scientists to use month of birth as a source of &#8220;natural experiments&#8221; involving more important topics.</p>
<p>As for statistical significance, it should be noted that the authors are using huge samples.</p>
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		<title>By: Rob Knop</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/2009/09/23/does-birth-season-matter/#comment-32356</link>
		<dc:creator>Rob Knop</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2009 15:21:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/?p=2875#comment-32356</guid>
		<description>When Sheril calls her brother the &quot;smart one&quot;, is anybody else reminded of Simon Tam?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When Sheril calls her brother the &#8220;smart one&#8221;, is anybody else reminded of Simon Tam?</p>
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		<title>By: Nameless</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/2009/09/23/does-birth-season-matter/#comment-32351</link>
		<dc:creator>Nameless</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2009 05:43:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/?p=2875#comment-32351</guid>
		<description>One obvious possible explanation is that planned babies could be conceived uniformly year-round, and the number of &quot;unintentional&quot;/accidental conceptions experiences an upward fluctuation in late spring to early summer due to well known seasonal sex drive patterns (especially in colder states, where winter clothes give way to cleavages and mini-skirts starting around April).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One obvious possible explanation is that planned babies could be conceived uniformly year-round, and the number of &#8220;unintentional&#8221;/accidental conceptions experiences an upward fluctuation in late spring to early summer due to well known seasonal sex drive patterns (especially in colder states, where winter clothes give way to cleavages and mini-skirts starting around April).</p>
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		<title>By: John Kwok</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/2009/09/23/does-birth-season-matter/#comment-32350</link>
		<dc:creator>John Kwok</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2009 03:45:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/?p=2875#comment-32350</guid>
		<description>I wonder what kind of sound time series statistical analysis were employed by these Notre Dame researchers. Seems quite suspect to me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I wonder what kind of sound time series statistical analysis were employed by these Notre Dame researchers. Seems quite suspect to me.</p>
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		<title>By: MadScientist</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/2009/09/23/does-birth-season-matter/#comment-32344</link>
		<dc:creator>MadScientist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:21:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/?p=2875#comment-32344</guid>
		<description>I can&#039;t help but wonder what result mining techniques were used.  On the other hand I don&#039;t care to waste my time to find out.  Anyone out there care to find out or explain why there appears to be a somewhat reproducible pattern over what are very small numbers?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I can&#8217;t help but wonder what result mining techniques were used.  On the other hand I don&#8217;t care to waste my time to find out.  Anyone out there care to find out or explain why there appears to be a somewhat reproducible pattern over what are very small numbers?</p>
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		<title>By: Marion Delgado</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/2009/09/23/does-birth-season-matter/#comment-32342</link>
		<dc:creator>Marion Delgado</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Sep 2009 20:24:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/?p=2875#comment-32342</guid>
		<description>This analysis violates everything I know about science, namely, that the plural of anecdote is data, that correlation is causation, and that they laughed at Galileo.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This analysis violates everything I know about science, namely, that the plural of anecdote is data, that correlation is causation, and that they laughed at Galileo.</p>
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		<title>By: John</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/2009/09/23/does-birth-season-matter/#comment-32339</link>
		<dc:creator>John</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Sep 2009 19:03:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/?p=2875#comment-32339</guid>
		<description>Inconclusive results within the margin of error? I tend to think so.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Inconclusive results within the margin of error? I tend to think so.</p>
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		<title>By: JJ</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/2009/09/23/does-birth-season-matter/#comment-32331</link>
		<dc:creator>JJ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Sep 2009 13:22:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/?p=2875#comment-32331</guid>
		<description>Definitely insignificant correlations. Both me and my sister are January babies and we both graduated Magna Cum Laude with degrees in Math. We&#039;re also primarily left handed, with both parents being right handed. I guess we simply defy the odds. If there&#039;s anything significant, I&#039;d say it may be the result of decreased exposure to the sun in winter months, resulting in decreased vitamin D production and possible differences in cognitive development.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Definitely insignificant correlations. Both me and my sister are January babies and we both graduated Magna Cum Laude with degrees in Math. We&#8217;re also primarily left handed, with both parents being right handed. I guess we simply defy the odds. If there&#8217;s anything significant, I&#8217;d say it may be the result of decreased exposure to the sun in winter months, resulting in decreased vitamin D production and possible differences in cognitive development.</p>
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		<title>By: Anthony McCarthy</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/2009/09/23/does-birth-season-matter/#comment-32329</link>
		<dc:creator>Anthony McCarthy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Sep 2009 08:55:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/intersection/?p=2875#comment-32329</guid>
		<description>Gaythia,  having a number of school teachers in my family and hearing how a lot of their colleagues already have a bias against the youngest children in their classes &quot;based on what science says&quot; I can almost guarantee that instead of the prescription for remedies, this is going to be taken by many people as a sort of neo-astrological determinant of fate.   There&#039;s a history that would seem to indicate that tendency, the difference in &quot;IQ&quot; testing which was originally taken as diagnostic, so that amelioration could be undertaken to what became essentially a social class assignment.    

Even if this kind of study was finding an actual correlation between birth month and real life phenomena, that&#039;s not any evidence that their analysis of the data isn&#039;t too simplistic due to lack of detail in the information they have.  What if the results they got for the people with birthdays in January were due to a number of discrete and unrelated factors,  how would you design remedial measures?   I would guess that some of those factors could be due to things like school year or that its easier for teenagers to find places to have sex at one time or another.   Maybe the scheduling of proms has something to do with it.   But its unlikely that you&#039;re going to find one single reason for it because the reasons for them having unprotected sex are probably quite varied.  

Whether or not these kinds of studies would impede the regulation of the banking system  might be a simpler thing to study, there being so many fewer economists than teenagers who have children and their professional activities being, perhaps, less varied.   If you couldn&#039;t figure out a correlation between the known factors of their documented professional lives, you&#039;re going to have a much harder time with the far more varied and very spottily documented lives of the general population.   

But maybe it&#039;s true that economists time might not be well spent on looking into this.  I would trust people outside of economics to look into the failures of their profession more than economists, unless they were skeptical of the theories of capitalism and neo-classical economics.   I suspect that&#039;s the cause of the failure of economists to see what so many of us did when Phil Graham was gutting banking regulations,  their theoretical models overrode what history had shown to have been the real life result of letting people with an economic interest in theft and plunder their &quot; Freedom to Choose&quot;.     J. K. Galbraith once said that an economist should have a thorough knowledge of history which seems to have given away to theoretical fantasy in that profession.   And it&#039;s interesting how often, as in the case of &quot;gender science&quot; how those fantasies seem to benefit those with the most money and privilege.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Gaythia,  having a number of school teachers in my family and hearing how a lot of their colleagues already have a bias against the youngest children in their classes &#8220;based on what science says&#8221; I can almost guarantee that instead of the prescription for remedies, this is going to be taken by many people as a sort of neo-astrological determinant of fate.   There&#8217;s a history that would seem to indicate that tendency, the difference in &#8220;IQ&#8221; testing which was originally taken as diagnostic, so that amelioration could be undertaken to what became essentially a social class assignment.    </p>
<p>Even if this kind of study was finding an actual correlation between birth month and real life phenomena, that&#8217;s not any evidence that their analysis of the data isn&#8217;t too simplistic due to lack of detail in the information they have.  What if the results they got for the people with birthdays in January were due to a number of discrete and unrelated factors,  how would you design remedial measures?   I would guess that some of those factors could be due to things like school year or that its easier for teenagers to find places to have sex at one time or another.   Maybe the scheduling of proms has something to do with it.   But its unlikely that you&#8217;re going to find one single reason for it because the reasons for them having unprotected sex are probably quite varied.  </p>
<p>Whether or not these kinds of studies would impede the regulation of the banking system  might be a simpler thing to study, there being so many fewer economists than teenagers who have children and their professional activities being, perhaps, less varied.   If you couldn&#8217;t figure out a correlation between the known factors of their documented professional lives, you&#8217;re going to have a much harder time with the far more varied and very spottily documented lives of the general population.   </p>
<p>But maybe it&#8217;s true that economists time might not be well spent on looking into this.  I would trust people outside of economics to look into the failures of their profession more than economists, unless they were skeptical of the theories of capitalism and neo-classical economics.   I suspect that&#8217;s the cause of the failure of economists to see what so many of us did when Phil Graham was gutting banking regulations,  their theoretical models overrode what history had shown to have been the real life result of letting people with an economic interest in theft and plunder their &#8221; Freedom to Choose&#8221;.     J. K. Galbraith once said that an economist should have a thorough knowledge of history which seems to have given away to theoretical fantasy in that profession.   And it&#8217;s interesting how often, as in the case of &#8220;gender science&#8221; how those fantasies seem to benefit those with the most money and privilege.</p>
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