Dow 10,000

By Chris Mooney | October 14, 2009 1:33 pm

Wow, it was only a year ago when the whole financial system seemed on the brink of collapse; today, by contrast, if only briefly (so far), the Dow topped 10,000, a huge rebound from its March 09 low of 6,547.

Do folks think the nightmare is finally coming to an end?

P.S.: And if you are feeling optimistic, all the more reason to take this opportunity to use some of your extra cash on a DonorsChoose donation to help promote science education in the U.S…..

CATEGORIZED UNDER: Culture
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Comments (13)

  1. Jon

    There’s some sort of recovery going on, but 10% unemployment has Keynesian types like Brad Delong worried

  2. JEM

    No.

    Unemployment and underemployment is deep, commercial real estate is still yet to shake out, the dollar is under real pressure, tentative steps are underway to replace us dollar with another curreny for oil transactions, underlying financial shenanigams have not been addressed, and so on, and so on, and so on.

  3. Walker

    Absolutely not. This is a dead cat bounced fueled by a bubble in financial stocks, combined with a one-time improvement in inventory.

    I have been following this since 2005 and every person who has been right about this from the beginning has pointed out that all the data says that things are about to get much, much worse. A double dip is coming by first quarter 2010. From the oncoming commercial real estate collapse, to option ARMs, to shadow inventory, to rising foreclosures, to ongoing unemployment, to ongoing consumer weakness, everything looks bad, bad, bad. To treat the stock market as any indication of health in our economy is beyond foolish.

  4. Walker

    Let me also remind everyone that what killed banks in the depression was not the initial fall. It was the continual succession of “everything is alright again” followed by another market collapse.

  5. Erasmussimo

    Normally a rising stock market precedes recovery from a recession. At the very least, it provides capital for businesses to expand more cheaply. So yes, I suspect that this is an indicator — only an indicator! — of economic recovery. We must remember that the recovery will take a while for GDP to start rising at a healthy rate. Lastly, employment is the last thing to recover from a recession, so we won’t make much progress on employment for at least three months. I also suspect that the Dow 10,000 is a temporary peak; it will probably fall back and bobble around between 9,000 and 10,000 for the next few months.

    However, the overall long term economic outlook is not so great. We are burdened with a mountain of debt that will pull the economy down. The dollar will stay weak and I doubt that it will recover much. I suspect that we’ll be seeing GDP growth of under 3%. That’s not great. Europe has been toodling along with that kind of growth for the last 20 years, while the US has stayed roughly within the 3% to 4% band.

  6. Blogger

    Why so much politics lately?

  7. JEM

    It’s now become impossible to separate science from politics. Isn’t that the point of ‘The R. War on Science’, etc.? As much as I’d like to, We can’t wish that away.

    As far as this thread – it’s also impossible to separate the economy from science. Science has to be funded somehow.

  8. The fact that the “fear” of some kind of Mad Max style collapse is over is a genuinely good thing, but as others have mentioned a lot recovery left to go (the most important part, getting people working). And there’s a really nasty fight ahead to reform the financial system.

    I’m sure the same scare tactics that lobbyists use to smear health care reform and attempts to halt global warming will be used to fight financial system reform.

  9. MadScientist

    I am not optimistic because the global stock market as it is currently organized is nothing more than the world’s largest legalized pyramid scheme. I believe stock markets have a valuable role to play primarily as a means of raising capital other than through bank loans. This monkey business of bidding up the price of a virtual piece of paper with no corresponding increase in productivity has got to end though. People have also got to realize that most companies do not live forever, so in the long term, investment in any particular company is a losing proposition (not a winning proposition as all the TV ads claim). Money doesn’t come from nothing, but the basic premise of today’s stock market is that it does.

  10. Jon

    Why so much politics lately?

    The theme of this blog is the intersection of science and politics.

    If you wanted the intersection of science and atheism (and mainly the latter) that’s someone else’s blog, dude.

  11. Marion Delgado

    Not in any way. The bailout made things far worse, the continued military occupations are draining more money in a month than Congress can save in a year, etc. etc.

    Nonetheless, the contributions to young science projects are worthy. Even in a drought, you shouldn’t eat your seed corn.

  12. Not so long as they keep letting ex-Goldman Sachs employees infiltrate the apparatus of government.

    I say bring back Eliot Spitzer, make him your king. Until then I’m keeping my nice Canadian dollars in GICs and savings accounts (and barring that, under my mattress).

  13. Dark tent

    Since when did the DJI have anything to do with the health of the real economy?

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About Chris Mooney

Chris is a science and political journalist and commentator and the author of three books, including the New York Times bestselling The Republican War on Science--dubbed "a landmark in contemporary political reporting" by Salon.com and a "well-researched, closely argued and amply referenced indictment of the right wing's assault on science and scientists" by Scientific American--Storm World, and Unscientific America: How Scientific Illiteracy Threatens Our Future, co-authored by Sheril Kirshenbaum. They also write "The Intersection" blog together for Discover blogs. For a longer bio and contact information, see here.

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